If anyone believes the Celtics won't bring it game 3, think again.

[jdz101]

It will be a split during these two Philly games and we will win the series in 6 games...

[clover]

I don't need to say much, but the Celtics realize that they really let this one get away from them today. I say they go into Philly and take both. Remember I said this.

Unfortunately that is not the point.  We are playing our starting SF almost 38 minutes a game and this is what we are getting from him:

PER: 17.10  Rank: 47th

Our starting PF is getting 30 minutes and is giving us this:

PER: 10.75  Rank: 107th  Value Added: -2.7

Here is what we are getting at the SG:

Bradley -  25 Minutes, PER: 8.16  Rank: 128th  Value Added: -7.0

Ray - 30 Minutes, PER: 16.12  Rank: 51st 

Remember that the average NBA player has a PER of 15.  By my rough calculations, that is a (weighted) average of PER = 13.3 for those 4 players.

Getting those numbers from our starting SGs, SF and PF, who are combined taking up 53% of the entire team's minutes, just isn't going to cut it. 

Our backup for Pierce (Pietrus) ranks almost last in PER these playoffs, and we don't really have a backup PF. Hollins and Stiesma are both in the bottom ranks of PER.  The only bench player we have at the PER average is Dooling.

So it really isn't a matter of bringing it.  Our team, as a whole, is not performing well right now, including the Atlanta series.  Everyone besides KG and Rondo are playing like average to below average NBA players. 

So either our two superstars (KG and Rondo) carry us in Games 3 and 4, or someone in the above group changes course and does something for us.  I think it has to be a combination of players slightly upping their game.  The only ones who can really turn it around for us are Bass and Bradley, who are playing 3-4 points below their regular season PERs.  Pierces is 2 points lower, but I don't think he can raise his game with the knee problem.

We need to play to our capabilities or we will lose this series. 

sounding like someone who just discovered PER and is now looking at every players PER to see who has the highest. PER is not a god stat. Especially for pass first players.

sounding like someone without an actual argument for why we shouldn't trust the only quantitative measure we have to compare the play of individuals to the field

there are plenty of problems with PER, or any stat, but there are plenty of good things about it too.  the fact is that it is applied the same to everyone.

and the facts are that three of our starters are playing well below their regular season levels.  that is not going to cut it.

PER season averages are based on playing good teams and bad.  In the playoffs you're only facing good teams, and the Celtics so far have faced two good defensive teams.

[Eja117]

I don't need to say much, but the Celtics realize that they really let this one get away from them today. I say they go into Philly and take both. Remember I said this.

I totally agree. I never saw a group of old banged up guys that wanted to play another quarter so bad. They seemed more ticked than I'd seen em in a loooonnnggg time

[Kane3387]

I think we will win both games in Philly.

One down and one to go.

[Celtics18]

Consider it broughten!!!

[Fafnir]

PER season averages are based on playing good teams and bad.  In the playoffs you're only facing good teams, and the Celtics so far have faced two good defensive teams.

Not only that but PER doesn't really sum up team wins very well. Its an offensive statistic, you can actually increase your PER by shooting more with a breakeven of just .30 2P FG% and .21 3P FG%.

Rondo   EWA  6.4
Ray     EWA  3.4
Paul    EWA  9.5
Kevin   EWA  8.3
Bass    EWA  2.5
Avery   EWA  0.6
Greg    EWA  1.1
Peaches EWA -0.9
Sasha   EWA -1.0
O'Neal  EWA -0.3
Wilcox  EWA  0.2
Dooling EWA -1.3
Marquis EWA -0.6

Total = 27.9 EWA, Actual Wins = 39 So we had 11 more wins

That's our top 13 in MP I believe: only Hollins/Moore/JJJ/Sean Williams got left out for time's sake (and Hollins played for the Cavs making his EWA split)

PER = offensive based superstar comparison stat that overvalues how much you shoot

EWA = garbage.