The dreaded end of game Paul Pierce isolation play

[Chris]

I think Pierce was looking for Ray, and he was also looking for a backcut, but neither option presented themselves.

The reason you have the ball in Pierce's hands is that he is the best combination of ballhandler, passer, decisionmaker, and scorer.  He gives you the most options, depending on what the defense shows him.

Ray is actually a pretty mediocre ballhandler under pressure, and has lost just enough quickness that he struggles creating space off the dribble, and is not a great passer.  Rondo you certainly don't want taking the shot when the defense takes away the passing options.  KG is great, but he can't make his own shot that well anymore.

I actually think the shot Pierce took was option C or D.  He first looked to drive on Duncan, who didn't give him a lane.  He looked for passes.  He also was expecting for them to give a foul, and it threw him off a little when they didn't.

The tough part about last possessions is that generally defenses are pretty focussed for them.  That makes it really hard to do anything complicated without ending up without even getting a shot up.  So, if you can put the ball in the hands of a player that you know can get a shot up if nothing else presents itself, but can also search for a better shot first, then it is an ideal situation.  It is never going to be a high percentage play, just by the nature of trying to score when the defense is completely set and focussed.  If you can just get off a shot which isn't a contested 25 footer, than that is half the battle.

Or let me put it in completely made up numbers.

A shot with a 25% of going in, is still better than a shot that has a 35-40% shot of going in (everything will be contested, you can't count on an open shot), that comes after a pass that has maybe a 15-20% chance of being deflected or intercepted by a defense that is zeroed in.

[pearljammer10]

Shot was frustrating.
It should have been a much better look but it was horrible in the end.
Needed to take it about 4-5 seconds earlier to get an opportunity at the rebound or foul. I'm surprised they didn't run Avery around the back for a cut or alley oop play.

I don't have a problem with Pierce getting the ball there, he just needs to find the shot much earlier.

Agreed.

So we can leave time on the clock for the Spurs to answer and win the game?

I dont see any problem with Pierce's shot except for the fact that it didnt go through the net. Thats his shot and we've seen him make it 1,000's of times. He had Duncan on his heels, he got to his hot spot near the free throw line, and he took a fairly open look. The buzzer goes off, he hits it, we win the game, everyone goes home happy. It just didnt fall... At the end of the game you give it to your go to guy, who happened to be the East player of the week. The only other person I would rather give the ball to in that situation would be Kobe, Pierce in iso is still a great option.

[Marcus13]

Yeah, the issue even bigger than him missing these is that he can't even get to the spot he wants to get to.  Tim freakin Duncan prevented him from getting a quality look last night - that play shouldn't be an option anymore

[jambr380]

I agree with Chris that this was probably the third or fourth option. I know Pierce taking a fall away jumper gives you a 'decent' chance, but Ray coming off a pick or something going to the hoop gives you a much better chance. I know Pierce is our go to guy, but he's no Bird or MJ and he is only losing a step at this point in his career.

I think giving Pierce the ball was the right thing to do. He can pass, shoot, or make fts, but his shot wasn't the best chance for a win. When I saw the name of this thread, I knew exactly what the OP was saying...

[tunafish]

some older (stats compiled over '03-04, '04-05, '05-06, '06-07, '07-08, '08-09) but still relevant/interesting stats to look at:
http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

Here's Paul's stats:
Player
Fgm     11
Fga     32
Fg%     .344
Ftm     15
Fta     17
Ast     9
T/O     3

Also if you assume 3 of those 11 game winners were 3 point shots (a complete guess, just trying to get an estimate for TS%) and then include the free throws, you find that Pierce's true shooting percentage during game winning situations is ~53%.

By comparison over the same time period Kobe's Fg% is .250(!).
It is also interesting to note that Paul Pierce has the most game winning assists of anyone else on the list. PP is the captain, I'll give him the ball at the end of games any day. I trust him to make the right decision with the ball in his hands.

[Boris Badenov]

Two pages on this topic and no one has even suggested a KG post up.

They've finally beaten us down.

[LooseCannon]

I know Pierce taking a fall away jumper gives you a 'decent' chance, but Ray coming off a pick or something going to the hoop gives you a much better chance.

I thought people were saying that Ray has problems getting open as an argument for starting Bradley.  Maybe Bradley should be on the floor instead of Allen at the end of close games.

[Bankshot]

It is my feeling we would have 2 Banners with the big 3 and all that goes with it WITHOUT DOC!!!!! Since Danny's trade we got about 65% of the Teams actual value because of Doc. Of course no one knew Doc would be coaching real talent. We were mediocre before KG. Doc fit right in being a 500 Coach. We put Pee Wee Herman in to run Apple.

Ugh! Thanks for reminding me of game 7 of the finals in 2010.   I agree with you.  I believe game 7 was lost because of Doc.  After the way Tony Allen played against Kobe, Doc let Ray run around and miss all those shots and didn't play Tony Allen.  Also, after Nate was brought in for offense and he won a playoff game for you, Doc didn't even play Nate in game 7.  I think he played 2 minutes.  We couldn't score a bucket in game 7 and Doc didn't play Nate for offense or Tony for offense, defense and rebounding.   Ok, got that off my chest.

Back to the topic.  I had no problem with Pierce taking the shot.  I just wish he had made it.

[celtic -_- pride]

would it be dreaded if he made it ?

[Boris Badenov]

Lack of practice has hurt us. Most other options (multiple screens for Ray, back cuts, etc.) involve precise timing that may not be there right now.

We can always get the Pierce ISO as long as he catches the inbound pass. We almost didn't even get that, by the way - Rondo called a timeout after the first inbound attempt.

[drza44]

Paul's clutch stats are pretty good....he shoots over 50% in those situations. A lot of which would be in isolation. You can do a lot worse than pierce shooting out of an ISO to win the game. Paul has also made some great passes to ray for clutch buckets in the past aswell.

If the D is right up on everyone it's hard to just pass the ball round like usual.

That may have been true at some point, but that hasn't been the case for the last 5 years.  I haven't updated my sheet since March 14, but up to that point Pierce was shooting 27% from the field in the last 30 seconds of 1 possession games since the start of the '08 season.  It's actually Ray that's up near 50% (48.8% from the field) in these situations.

http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM

From your link: "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points"

From my post: "last 30 seconds of 1 possession games since the start of the '08 season"

Entirely different situations and time periods.  Last night's play was an example of a game-winning-shot opportunity...a last possession, generate one shot opportunity.  In THOSE situations, as I pointed out, Pierce is down around 27% from the field while Ray is up near 50%. 

Of course, a much higher number of Allen's attempts are assisted (14 out of 20 made attempts in Big 3 era) than Pierce's (5 out of 13 made attempts) and Pierce also had the most assists on the team (15, vs 2 for Allen) in that situation for this team because he is the one initiating in a lot of cases while Ray is more of a finisher.  Never said that Pierce shouldn't be the one to initiate the play.  But he absolutely isn't shooting anywhere near 50% in those situations.

[Celtics4ever]

So predictable.

[celtic -_- pride]

the blame is on doc not pierce

[Capricious]

I love how this team is so good out of timeouts with playcalls, yet when its the last possession of the game its generally a pierce iso...

The play was ok, but he needs to go sooner to give your team a chance of an offensive rebound.  If the score is tied, you can wait till time expires - not when you are down.

[TheReaLPuba]

KG was off.

Ray was off and coming back from a long lay off.

Rondo can't shoot FTs.

The only other guy who could make a shot was Bradley but do you want him taking that shot over Pierce?

It wasn't even an ISO!

It was a pick 'n roll or pick 'n pop and Duncan switch on to Pierce.

If Pierce drives on Duncan there's no way Pierce gets a whistle in that situation unless Duncan intentionally fouls him.

Pierce got a pretty good look and just missed.

Maybe he should have shot it earlier for a possible offensive rebound and put back but we are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league and KG was up at the top of the key.

Give the Spurs credit for not giving their foul to waste.

And give Gary f'n Neal credit for making shots that guy can really score the ball and hit some shots.

Neal and Danny Green have really given the Spurs some young energy and life.