Greg Stiemsma's Potential = Perk or Better?

[LooseCannon]

With the salary cap in place, who provides a better value is sometimes more important than who is better.  I don't think it is at all unreasonable to think Stiemsma will provide better value for whatever he is paid over the next few years, but I'm not sure if he will provide the bang for your buck that Perkins gave on his previous, cheaper contract.

[Fafnir]

Let me put it this way, Jermaine O'Neal had a better rebound rate this year than Stiemsma.

He's not a rebounder, people keep pumping up his rebounding and its just not there. I've seen some of the same people in game threads who'd groan that O'Neal was useless and never got rebounds, freak out when "Steamer" isn't in the game because of "all the rebounds he gets".

[Tr1boy]

In his best year, Perk averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 60% shooting while playing elite defense as the starting center on a team that reached the NBA finals.

In his best full month, Stiemsma averaged 3.9 points and 3.9 rebounds on 50.9% shooting, coming off the bench.  Stiemsma is an excellent shot-blocker, but is far from an elite defender.

Right now, Stiemsma has a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level.  It's exciting to see the level GS is playing at, because he basically came out of nowhere.  However, he just hasn't come close to the impact Perk had.

can;t agree with you roy. Look perk this year, and his stats on avg are no better than Stiesma. Stiesma also has played some games 10 mins and others 20. But perk consistantly plays/played 25-30 minutes as a starter.

Like i stated its the type of defender you prefer. Both are good, but i still like stiesmas style a little better. Not sure about the criticism about stiesma rebounding. Offensively not as good as perk but defensively he has been a vacuum.

He's not very good on the defensive glass for a C.

Edit: He's 44th and out 57 qualifying centers, just ahead of Perkins this year who's having the worst rebounding year of his career (as a rotation player). In fact he's rebounding at essentially the exact same rate as Perkins this year.

numberic wise thats fine. But it is understood that this is officially this kids first year in the league. As every game has gone by , he has been better and better. Last 5 games, he has been a vacuum on the boards (esp defensive end). Even if he loses a chance, he will block the putback anyways =]

[clover]

In his best year, Perk averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 60% shooting while playing elite defense as the starting center on a team that reached the NBA finals.

In his best full month, Stiemsma averaged 3.9 points and 3.9 rebounds on 50.9% shooting, coming off the bench.  Stiemsma is an excellent shot-blocker, but is far from an elite defender.

Right now, Stiemsma has a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level.  It's exciting to see the level GS is playing at, because he basically came out of nowhere.  However, he just hasn't come close to the impact Perk had.

can;t agree with you roy. Look perk this year, and his stats on avg are no better than Stiesma. Stiesma also has played some games 10 mins and others 20. But perk consistantly plays/played 25-30 minutes as a starter.

Like i stated its the type of defender you prefer. Both are good, but i still like stiesmas style a little better. Not sure about the criticism about stiesma rebounding. Offensively not as good as perk but defensively he has been a vacuum.

He's not very good on the defensive glass for a C.

Edit: He's 44th and out 57 qualifying centers, just ahead of Perkins this year who's having the worst rebounding year of his career (as a rotation player). In fact he's rebounding at essentially the exact same rate as Perkins this year.

numberic wise thats fine. But it is understood that this is officially this kids first year in the league. As every game has gone by , he has been better and better. Last 5 games, he has been a vacuum on the boards (esp defensive end). Even if he loses a chance, he will block the putback anyways =]

Yep, the guy's undoubtedly been absorbing, learning and trying to make automatic all different sorts of things through the season.  He can't incorporate them all at once and likely there have been other things his coaches (and KG) have been emphasizing at different times.

Also, are those rebound rates raw numbers or adapted to pace of play or percent of opportunities?

[LooseCannon]

Let me put it this way, Jermaine O'Neal had a better rebound rate this year than Stiemsma.

He's not a rebounder, people keep pumping up his rebounding and its just not there. I've seen some of the same people in game threads who'd groan that O'Neal was useless and never got rebounds, freak out when "Steamer" isn't in the game because of "all the rebounds he gets".

I'd argue that's more a problem of people undervaluing JO rather than people overvaluing Stiemsma.  He's an upgrade in DRB% over some of the bench bigs in the previous two seasons, such as Troy Murphy, Nenad Krstic, Semih Erden, and Glen Davis.  Stiemsma's not as good at rebounding as Shelden Williams, though.

Stiemsma does give a nice semblance of action that impresses people who overvalue hustle.

[Fafnir]

numberic wise thats fine. But it is understood that this is officially this kids first year in the league. As every game has gone by , he has been better and better. Last 5 games, he has been a vacuum on the boards (esp defensive end). Even if he loses a chance, he will block the putback anyways =]

No he hasn't. Since the all-star break:

   ORB%   DRB%   TRB%
26   0   28.7   16.1
27   19.1   37.2   28.2
28   0   8.4   4.2
29   0   11.8   5.7
30   7.7   22.6   14.5
31   0   42.3   18.4
32   7.2   4.9   5.9
33   41.1   24.6   32.8
34   0   37.8   16.6
35   0   14.4   7.3
36   6   11.8   8.9
37   9.1   7.7   8.3
38   0   0   0
39   0   27.3   17.2
40   7.3   27.5   17.7
41   6.7   14.8   11.4
42   14.5   9.3   11.8
43   0   13.3   8.2
44   0   25.4   13
45   11.7   0   5.4
46   8.3   27.2   18.1
47   6.6   8.7   7.9
48   9.4   30.7   23.2

Average:
ORB% 6.726086957   
DRB% 18.97391304   
TRB% 13.07826087

The numbers at the bottom are straight averages of the columns, not how you really calculate his overall rebound rate (instead of averaging the number each game you'd add up all the possessions) since all-star break but it is a quick and dirty estimate.

[Fafnir]

Let me put it this way, Jermaine O'Neal had a better rebound rate this year than Stiemsma.

He's not a rebounder, people keep pumping up his rebounding and its just not there. I've seen some of the same people in game threads who'd groan that O'Neal was useless and never got rebounds, freak out when "Steamer" isn't in the game because of "all the rebounds he gets".

I'd argue that's more a problem of people undervaluing JO rather than people overvaluing Stiemsma.  He's an upgrade in DRB% over some of the bench bigs in the previous two seasons, such as Troy Murphy, Nenad Krstic, Semih Erden, and Glen Davis.  Stiemsma's not as good at rebounding as Shelden Williams, though.

Stiemsma does give a nice semblance of action that impresses people who overvalue hustle.

I think its both.

The upgrade Greg provides over Jermaine is in his better ability to score (both with his jump shot, finishing at the rim, and free throws) and his shot blocking. Plus overall mobility of course.

[Roy H.]

Also, are those rebound rates raw numbers or adapted to pace of play or percent of opportunities?

Rebound rate numbers are a reflection of the percentage of available rebounds a player gets.  Since they're on a percentage basis, they're automatically adjusted for pace.

[Fafnir]

Also, are those rebound rates raw numbers or adapted to pace of play or percent of opportunities?

Rebound rates adjust for pace in that it accoutns for shots taken and shots made. Its an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player gets when he is on the court.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebound_rate

[Fafnir]

For every game like the one he had against Miami last night (great rebounding game 7 boards in 19 minutes) he's had other underwhelming ones. (the blowout win against Miami he only had 4 rebounds in 24 minutes for example)

[mctyson]

In his best year, Perk averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 60% shooting while playing elite defense as the starting center on a team that reached the NBA finals.

In his best full month, Stiemsma averaged 3.9 points and 3.9 rebounds on 50.9% shooting, coming off the bench.  Stiemsma is an excellent shot-blocker, but is far from an elite defender.

Right now, Stiemsma has a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level.  It's exciting to see the level GS is playing at, because he basically came out of nowhere.  However, he just hasn't come close to the impact Perk had.

Why, in a thread about Stiesma's potential compared to Perkins' ability, should we take the stats from Perkins' penultimate year as a professional and compare it to Stiesma's first year in the NBA and not adjust it for minutes played, and say that Stiesma has "a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level?"

Here's how I look at it.  Perkins should be in his NBA prime right now.  He is 27 years old with some 8-9 years of experience, and has played on NBA championship caliber teams.  

Right now, Perkins is statistically one of the worst centers in the league, and probably is one of the worst contracts in the league.

Right now, Stiesma is putting up superior numbers, playing in his rookie season, on a team where he was basically thrown into the fire because of injury.

Right now, Stiesma is better than Perkins. Plain and simple.

[Tr1boy]

i know some of you guys like fafnir is all about the numbers. But how about you tell me , from watching games, how he has done in the rebounding department? Lets forget about rebounding for a sec, has he been boxing guys out?? bc of his presence on the inside , is it now easier for other guys to rebound??

Some of the easier rebounds, i've seen him let up , to let guys like rondo grab them. At times i have seen Rondo steal rebounds from Stiemsma , if that makes sense and at times i have seen Stiemsma and other players on the team, fight for the same rebound. When the rebound is difficult for anyone else to get, outside of kg and himself, he has usually never lost a chance to grab it. He skies and reaches for them and hasn't been beat yet from what i can remember.

Imo i think people associate a good rebounder , able to grab enough offensive rebounds. Perk could do this pretty good. But thats not Stiemsma's game. He is not a post player, and usually roams outside the key for jumpers.  For me whats good enough is that, he helps get the job done, so that he prevents or helps prevent other teams from grabbing offensive rebounds

[Roy H.]

Why, in a thread about Stiesma's potential compared to Perkins' ability, should we take the stats from Perkins' penultimate year as a professional and compare it to Stiesma's first year in the NBA and not adjust it for minutes played, and say that Stiesma has "a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level?"

The original question asked if Stiemsma can reach Perk's "ceiling".  Thus, you have to look at what each player's ceiling to date has been.  Perk's "ceiling" was a guy who averaged almost a double-double while playing elite defense as a starter on a championship-caliber team.

Will Stiemsma reach that level?  Well, based on where he is now, I'd say it's not very likely.  Stiesmma is less than a year younger than Perk; at this stage, I wonder how much room there is for drastic improvement in his game.

Let's be happy for what this kid is -- a very pleasant surprise as a backup center -- and not exaggerate him into something he's not.  Stiemsma has a long way to go before he's as good as Perk was here.

[Finkelskyhook]

In his best year, Perk averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 60% shooting while playing elite defense as the starting center on a team that reached the NBA finals.

In his best full month, Stiemsma averaged 3.9 points and 3.9 rebounds on 50.9% shooting, coming off the bench.  Stiemsma is an excellent shot-blocker, but is far from an elite defender.

Right now, Stiemsma has a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level.  It's exciting to see the level GS is playing at, because he basically came out of nowhere.  However, he just hasn't come close to the impact Perk had.

Why, in a thread about Stiesma's potential compared to Perkins' ability, should we take the stats from Perkins' penultimate year as a professional and compare it to Stiesma's first year in the NBA and not adjust it for minutes played, and say that Stiesma has "a long way to go before he reaches Perk's level?"

Here's how I look at it.  Perkins should be in his NBA prime right now.  He is 27 years old with some 8-9 years of experience, and has played on NBA championship caliber teams.  

Right now, Perkins is statistically one of the worst centers in the league, and probably is one of the worst contracts in the league.

Right now, Stiesma is putting up superior numbers, playing in his rookie season, on a team where he was basically thrown into the fire because of injury.

Right now, Stiesma is better than Perkins. Plain and simple.

Wow.  We're in a true parallel universe.  

mctyson, you need only look at the difference in every OK City defensive category after acquiring Perk as opposed to before.

I would take a contract as "worst" as Perk's on my team anytime....Or a center as statistically bad as Perk's..If his presence...(and overt nastiness)... transforms my team into one of the NBA's best defensive teams.

We should be so fortunate.

I liked Stiemsma's demeanor last night.  His confidence is growing steadily.  But better than Perk?  Really?

[GreenFaith1819]

I'm noticing more and more that Stiem's got GREAT HANDS:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6mfWDmFyaw

I thought for sure he'd fumble that one away. Just a tough pass to convert like that.

Man's getting extended minutes, too...anytime Doc trusts you vs MIA, in crunch time, on the road?

He's getting better. Yes, he's older...but he IS getting better.

Hope BOS doesn't fumble him away and let him walk. IMHO, he's AT WORST a backup center in the NBA.