Danny's Plan (idea)

[Who]

1. Resign KG.  If he will sign for 1 year, great, but I think the sweet spot is going to be more like 2 years/$24 million.  I think he will be offered more elsewhere, but that will be a serious enough offer to get him to stay in Boston.

2. Resign Jeff Green to a 1 year deal.  Probably going to cost something similar to his original qualifying offer, but they have been laying the groundwork all year, so hopefully he chooses the C's as his venue to prove he deserves a big contract.

I am thinking two years $20 million for Garnett and one year $3 million for Jeff Green.

You think $3 mil will fetch Jeff Green?  I'm not sure there's enough fear over Jeff's ability to play post-surgery to drop him to 1/3 of the value he commanded last offseason.

I think the most likely area for Jeff Green to land is somewhere around $3-4 million. The second most likely in a $1.5-$2.5 million range and the third most likely region to be around $5-$6 million but only on a one year deal.

Heart surgery is very serious. Most teams will be very reluctant to spend significant money on Jeff Green when they could spend it on someone else who is more of a sure-thing.

Green is a massive risk. Nobody (no teams) will know what level he can play at post-surgery. Whether he can regain his previous level of performance or not. He is starting almost from scratch and will need to prove himself all over again.

[snively]

1. Resign KG.  If he will sign for 1 year, great, but I think the sweet spot is going to be more like 2 years/$24 million.  I think he will be offered more elsewhere, but that will be a serious enough offer to get him to stay in Boston.

2. Resign Jeff Green to a 1 year deal.  Probably going to cost something similar to his original qualifying offer, but they have been laying the groundwork all year, so hopefully he chooses the C's as his venue to prove he deserves a big contract.

I am thinking two years $20 million for Garnett and one year $3 million for Jeff Green.

You think $3 mil will fetch Jeff Green?  I'm not sure there's enough fear over Jeff's ability to play post-surgery to drop him to 1/3 of the value he commanded last offseason.

I think the most likely area for Jeff Green to land is somewhere around $3-4 million. The second most likely in a $1.5-$2.5 million range and the third most likely region to be around $5-$6 million but only on a one year deal.

Heart surgery is very serious. Most teams will be very reluctant to spend significant money on Jeff Green when they could spend it on someone else who is more of a sure-thing.

Green is a massive risk. Nobody (no teams) will know what level he can play at post-surgery. Whether he can regain his previous level of performance or not. He is starting almost from scratch and will need to prove himself all over again.

That would make the withdrawal of the QO make more sense.  The agent played it off as a huge favor, but it could have been that the C's were confident they could get him for cheaper.

[slamtheking]

drafting big men that haven't been hyped tends to have better results in that they usually live up to or exceed expectations (as a rule of thumb).

So, players with low expectations tend to exceed expectations more than players with high expectations.

for big men, I find that to be the case usually.  It doesn't mean hyped players are busts, but that they don't live up to the hype. 
I'm also not stating that big men with lower expectations will always meet or exceed those expectations, just that with lower expectations usually comes less pressure and as a result, a better chance to develop their game.  Some guys can't meet any expectations (Ryan Hollins anyone).

Recent Examples of hyped big men that didn't live up to the hype: Greg Oden, Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Emeka Okafur etc... 
While Chandler and Okafur are still good players, they've never lived up to the hype surrounding their draft status.

[Chris]

1. Resign KG.  If he will sign for 1 year, great, but I think the sweet spot is going to be more like 2 years/$24 million.  I think he will be offered more elsewhere, but that will be a serious enough offer to get him to stay in Boston.

2. Resign Jeff Green to a 1 year deal.  Probably going to cost something similar to his original qualifying offer, but they have been laying the groundwork all year, so hopefully he chooses the C's as his venue to prove he deserves a big contract.

I am thinking two years $20 million for Garnett and one year $3 million for Jeff Green.

You think $3 mil will fetch Jeff Green?  I'm not sure there's enough fear over Jeff's ability to play post-surgery to drop him to 1/3 of the value he commanded last offseason.

I think the most likely area for Jeff Green to land is somewhere around $3-4 million. The second most likely in a $1.5-$2.5 million range and the third most likely region to be around $5-$6 million but only on a one year deal.

Heart surgery is very serious. Most teams will be very reluctant to spend significant money on Jeff Green when they could spend it on someone else who is more of a sure-thing.

Green is a massive risk. Nobody (no teams) will know what level he can play at post-surgery. Whether he can regain his previous level of performance or not. He is starting almost from scratch and will need to prove himself all over again.

That would make the withdrawal of the QO make more sense.  The agent played it off as a huge favor, but it could have been that the C's were confident they could get him for cheaper.

Well yes, it went both ways.  The C's did not want him to just immediately take the QO, eating up cap space that they could potentially use elsewhere, and having him make more money than he would make anywhere else (its a similar situation to Powe). 

But also, it was absolutely a favor, so the Agent can seek bids elsewhere without having teams scared off by the restricted status, and keeping 1 or 2 year deals on the table from other teams (I believe offer sheets need to be for a minimum of 3 years).

[CFAN38]

My guess is that the plan for next season is to basically repeat this year. I foresee the Cs resigning everyone who is willing to sign 1 year deals. (Bass, Pietrus may want long) I hope J Green is willing to sign 1 year to prove he is healthy. While sticking with the 1 year plan I would expect that we watch ever decent young to middle aged center sign to other teams for more $$ then they are worth. Then Danny will fill the rest of the team with the left over vets/guys who wanted long team deals and no one would commit (ex K Humphires last off season) and 3 rookies.

2012
Center: KG,Wilcox,Steimsma,
PF      J Green, JJJ, Rookie
SF      Pierce,Rookie
SG      Ray, Avery
PG      Rondo,Rookie

I would hope to see Avery push ahead of Ray to be the starting SG, JJJ prove to be a capable 8th man, and one of our rookies show the potential to be at least a solid starter in the next 3 years.

Then Danny will plan on being an aggressive player in 2013 free agency. This may very well include move Pierce at next years trade deadline.

2013 Free Agents (better list of unrestricted then 2012)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

With this teams recent play particularly the play of Bradley this plan looks even more likely. I'm not sure how it will work with J Green, I believe his bird rights where waived making it difficult to resign Green, Bass, KG, and Ray for next season. If that's the case I see Bass or Ray as the odd man out roughly 25 mill - 6 for green - 8 for KG - 7.5 for bass - 1mill steimsma = does ray play for less then 2.5 mill? If Ray plays for cheap or KG plays for less then 8. The the rotation would be the following next year (Ray would prob start but Avery would sub in quickly letting ray play 2nd unit).

C    KG
PF   Bass
SF   Pierce
SG   Avery
PG   Rondo
6th  Ray
7th  J Green
8th  Rookie/JJJ
9th  Steimsma
10th Rookie
11th Moore   

* my personal best case scenario would be for Sullinger to slip to 10-12 and the Cs trade both first and JJJ for his rights. Then Bass goes to the Bench and Sullnger starts at C.

[jdz101]

My guess is that the plan for next season is to basically repeat this year. I foresee the Cs resigning everyone who is willing to sign 1 year deals. (Bass, Pietrus may want long) I hope J Green is willing to sign 1 year to prove he is healthy. While sticking with the 1 year plan I would expect that we watch ever decent young to middle aged center sign to other teams for more $$ then they are worth. Then Danny will fill the rest of the team with the left over vets/guys who wanted long team deals and no one would commit (ex K Humphires last off season) and 3 rookies.

2012
Center: KG,Wilcox,Steimsma,
PF      J Green, JJJ, Rookie
SF      Pierce,Rookie
SG      Ray, Avery
PG      Rondo,Rookie

I would hope to see Avery push ahead of Ray to be the starting SG, JJJ prove to be a capable 8th man, and one of our rookies show the potential to be at least a solid starter in the next 3 years.

Then Danny will plan on being an aggressive player in 2013 free agency. This may very well include move Pierce at next years trade deadline.

2013 Free Agents (better list of unrestricted then 2012)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

With this teams recent play particularly the play of Bradley this plan looks even more likely. I'm not sure how it will work with J Green, I believe his bird rights where waived making it difficult to resign Green, Bass, KG, and Ray for next season. If that's the case I see Bass or Ray as the odd man out roughly 25 mill - 6 for green - 8 for KG - 7.5 for bass - 1mill steimsma = does ray play for less then 2.5 mill? If Ray plays for cheap or KG plays for less then 8. The the rotation would be the following next year (Ray would prob start but Avery would sub in quickly letting ray play 2nd unit).

C    KG
PF   Bass
SF   Pierce
SG   Avery
PG   Rondo
6th  Ray
7th  J Green
8th  Rookie/JJJ
9th  Steimsma
10th Rookie
11th Moore   

* my personal best case scenario would be for Sullinger to slip to 10-12 and the Cs trade both first and JJJ for his rights. Then Bass goes to the Bench and Sullnger starts at C.

I like sullinger and he's a big kid but 6'9 probably ain't gonna cut it as an NBA center... Power forward though... He could really bully some power forwards with his size.

[Celtics4ever]

Not much athletic ability so I don't like Sullinger.  I worry about him not being that tall and while a banger at PF can work undersized it is not ideal.   I would stay away from Sullinger.

[Fafnir]

I'd be very happy with Sullinger at our pick's range, I think he'll go higher.

He's a PF in the NBA and will have to work on his jump shot to succeed at a high level. But he should be able to rebound and team defend that position just fine.

[Celtics4ever]

We will see I think he will struggle mightily against elite athletes with his mediocre athletic ability.  Kansas bigs ate him alive.

[CFAN38]

We will see I think he will struggle mightily against elite athletes with his mediocre athletic ability.  Kansas bigs ate him alive.

Having 2 players with NBA size 6'10 Robinson and 7'0 Withey focusing on 1 player is tough for any player to handle. In my opinion the fact that he had 11 rebounds trumps his poor offensive production. Sullinger will not be a the ideal 7' NBA center but there aren't many in this day in age. Sullinger is the same height and length as Al Horford and is much stronger.His lower body strength will allow him to be effective guarding NBA bigs in much the same way BBD was effective for the celtics guarding dwight howard. I view sullinger as a can't miss prospect he may never be a super star but he at least will be a solid 12pt 10rb starting NBA big.   

[mctyson]

Not much athletic ability so I don't like Sullinger.  I worry about him not being that tall and while a banger at PF can work undersized it is not ideal.   I would stay away from Sullinger.

Sullinger will be at least as good as BBD - I know that is not saying much for a lottery pick, but if they did that draft over again BBD would probably be a top 20 pick.

[Chris]

The problem with Sullinger is that he doesn't really have a great chance of being a star.  His absolute cieling is probably Elton Brand, and it has been looking like he might not be athletic enough to even get there (although I do think things could change when he gets with an NBA trainer/dealer).

But, I think there is little doubt that Sullinger will be at the very least a very solid rotation big man, providing he doesn't go on the Michael Sweetney diet.  He has great basketball IQ, great ball skills, a good motor, and quick feet for a man his size.  

A lot will depend on his measurements, but I think he is also bigger than other undersized big men like Big Baby, Dujuan Blair, Brandon Bass, etc.  

Also, a lot of the complaints about him has been about his struggles to get shots off against bigger defenders, but I think this has a lot more to do with the way he is being defended as one of the top players in the country.  I think its absolutely a concern if your team is looking for a #1 or #2 option.  He will fall short there.  However, if you have other options, and just ask him to be a bruiser and rebounder, who can score against single coverage, or pass out of double teams, then he will be just fine.

He has a chance to slide out of the lottery because of the strength of the draft, and his lower upside, but he is an absolute steal in the mid first round, and I would be shocked if he doesn't have a 10 year NBA career, and I expect him to be at least as good as guys like Bass and Blair.

[pearljammer10]

drafting big men that haven't been hyped tends to have better results in that they usually live up to or exceed expectations (as a rule of thumb).

So, players with low expectations tend to exceed expectations more than players with high expectations.

for big men, I find that to be the case usually.  It doesn't mean hyped players are busts, but that they don't live up to the hype. 
I'm also not stating that big men with lower expectations will always meet or exceed those expectations, just that with lower expectations usually comes less pressure and as a result, a better chance to develop their game.  Some guys can't meet any expectations (Ryan Hollins anyone).

Recent Examples of hyped big men that didn't live up to the hype: Greg Oden, Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Emeka Okafur etc... 
While Chandler and Okafur are still good players, they've never lived up to the hype surrounding their draft status.

Im not so sure I would put Chandler in that category. He has made a nice career for himself being a double double guy playing pretty stellar defense throughout his career, plus solidifying and commanding a team in Dallas that was always on the verge of a ring but just couldnt get over the hump. He was the missing piece for that Dallas team, and without him this year they just dont look the same.

[CFAN38]

A lot will depend on his measurements, but I think he is also bigger than other undersized big men like Big Baby, Dujuan Blair, Brandon Bass, etc. 

He has been previously measure at adidas camp and I believe an allstar game. He measured 6'10 in shoes (likely 6'8.5 out of shoes) 265 lbs with a 7'1.5 wingspan. Bass was 6'7.25" in shoes 246lbs with a 7'2.5 wingspan, Blair is 6'6.5" in shoes 277lbs with a 7'2 wingspan, Al Horford is 6'9.75" in shoes 245lbs with a 7' wingspan.

[Chris]

A lot will depend on his measurements, but I think he is also bigger than other undersized big men like Big Baby, Dujuan Blair, Brandon Bass, etc. 

He has been previously measure at adidas camp and I believe an allstar game. He measured 6'10 in shoes (likely 6'8.5 out of shoes) 265 lbs with a 7'1.5 wingspan. Bass was 6'7.25" in shoes 246lbs with a 7'2.5 wingspan, Blair is 6'6.5" in shoes 277lbs with a 7'2 wingspan, Al Horford is 6'9.75" in shoes 245lbs with a 7' wingspan.

Well there you go (although I do question the Adidas camp measurements a bit...they aren't nearly as official as the combine).  He has plenty of size to be a legit NBA PF, and a part time center.  His lack of explosive athleticism will likely be an issue, but it will be the type that keeps him from jumping from good to great, not the type of issue that keeps him from being a quality NBA player.