Author Topic: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding  (Read 2150 times)

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Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« on: March 16, 2012, 12:40:17 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Instead of looking back at the trade deadline, let's look ahead at some teams the Celtics could trade with in the summer.  Most of the ideas involve the Celtics embracing a long-term rebuilding strategy by renting cap space for assets.  The model involves doing what the Cavs have done in absorbing contracts such as Baron Davis and Luke Walton for first round picks.

Atlanta Hawks
Josh Smith wants out.  He has one more season for $13.2m.  Trading Smith to a team with cap space for draft picks would generate a trade exception that they could use to grab a replacement, but they have little in the way of trade assets and an exception won't really let them get much farther over the cap.

Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are a bit tax-phobic, from what I understand.  They have Omer Asik, a restricted free agent if they give him a qualifying offer whose maximum possible salary is capped at the league average.  They have $10.5m tied up in Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and CJ Watson, but only 500K of that is fully guaranteed if they players are waived before an appropriate date.  Even if they waived all three, they would still be over the cap.  A team with cap space could give them a trade exception by taking on the salary of Richard Hamilton ($5m for next season, only $1m fully guaranteed the season after that).  A second round pick for Hamilton and either Jimmy Butler or a future first-rounder might be fair.

Dallas Mavericks
With Dwight Howard off the market, the Mavs may still be chasing Deron Williams, but they still need to shed some salary to create cap space.  They might be able to clear enough space just by waiving Odom before his contract becomes guaranteed and using the amnesty clause on Shawn Marion or Brendan Haywood.  Dominique Jones and Roddy Beaubois are the young players who could be added to a deal with or in addition to draft picks.

Golden State Warriors
I have no idea, but the Warriors have always been prone to doing things that don't make sense.  They would probably be willing to deal perfectly useful players to clear cap space to make a bad free agent signing.

Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers could be willing to cough up something in order to get rid of Mo Williams and his $8.5m player option and/or the $4m owed Ryan Gomes (he's still a Clipper, right?)

Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz may want to keep OJ Mayo and give away a player like Dante Cunningham (or even Quincy Pondexter) for a second round pick.  They may also make a choice between Darrell Arthur and Marreese Speights and be willing to facilitate a sign-and-trade.  The reason a team with cap space might deal for either is because both could be restricted free agents and the Celtics may want to give away a future draft pick to avoid having to over-pay on an offer sheet.

Orlando Magic
With Dwight Howard back for at least one more year, the Magic would love to find a way to bring in a good player to team with him.  While I would rather just try to sign restricted free agent Ryan Anderson away from them, one might also be able to trade a second round pick for Hedo Turkoglu, JJ Redick (who can probably be flipped for a younger player or a draft pick later), and at least one first round pick.  That would give the Magic an approximately $18m trade exception, though it would also leave them with less assets to use with that exception in a trade.

Sacramento Kings
Kind of like Golden State in that I'm not sure what they have to offer, but you have to be prepared to take advantage if they decide to do something stupid.

Cap space has value beyond just free agency.  If you think the Celtics should embrace missing the playoffs for a couple of years in order to rebuild, these are the kind of trades you should be interested in making. 

Personally, I would rather try to reload by bringing back KG and trying to get Ryan Anderson or some other plan.  But if I didn't, this is how I would rent out cap space.  You might have a tanking team with a starting lineup of Rondo, Rip Hamilton, Pierce, JuJuan Johnson, and Greg Stiemsma, with a bench of Hedo Turkoglu as a combo forward, JJ Redick, Avery Bradley, and a bunch of rookies (I like Yancy Gates if he remains projected as a second rounder), D-League All-Stars, and journeyman bigs because you there are few of those in the D-League.  If Rondo or Pierce suffers an injury that lets him credibly miss 30-40 games, that could be a high draft pick.
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Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2012, 02:55:57 PM »

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Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are a bit tax-phobic, from what I understand. 
Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf has been is unwilling to pay the luxury tax in the past because his team was always a non-contender but he has repeatedly said that he will happily pay the luxury tax for a title contender which the Bulls now are. 

The Bulls are one of the most financially profitable teams in the league and will be one of the most willing teams in the league to pay a high luxury tax bill now that they have a title contender.

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2012, 03:07:54 PM »

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Orlando Magic
With Dwight Howard back for at least one more year, the Magic would love to find a way to bring in a good player to team with him.  While I would rather just try to sign restricted free agent Ryan Anderson away from them, one might also be able to trade a second round pick for Hedo Turkoglu, JJ Redick (who can probably be flipped for a younger player or a draft pick later), and at least one first round pick.  That would give the Magic an approximately $18m trade exception, though it would also leave them with less assets to use with that exception in a trade.

Taking on Hedo's contract though would eliminate Boston's cap flexibility for the next two years (when combined with Pierce's and Rondo's salaries). Leave them as a middle of the road basketball team. Need at least 2 maybe 3 first rounders and even then Orlando's draft picks are not tempting enough to justify that stagnancy.

A trade idea similar to that Kurt Thomas to Seattle deal a few years ago ... but looking at where Boston currently is (Rondo, Pierce, boat loads of cap space) and where Seattle was (early stages of a full-blow rebuilding process, not ready to win anything for a few years) ... I have to wonder whether a deal like this makes any sense for a team like Boston. Is it just a deal that works for teams that are such a mess that it makes no difference adding two years of salary? I think that may be the case.

I reckon Boston should only be willing to take back one year contracts in return for a first rounder UNLESS they are offered a lottery pick in return. Late first rounder(s) just aren't worth it for them.

For a deal like this to make sense for Boston, I think they need to move Pierce (and maybe Rondo) and enter a full blown rebuilding process.

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2012, 03:57:09 PM »

Offline 2short

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Josh Smith paired with rondo and a resigned Green is youth, speed and good all around games.  Throw in a resigned kg (for adjusted $) and that is a good start right there.

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2012, 05:19:16 PM »

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There just aren't a lot of really intriguing FA's on the market in either 2012/2013. Surprisingly uninspiring list, actually. Therefore I'm starting to think the best path to relevancy will be tank and draft, in which case it makes sense to take on bad contracts as long as draft picks come with them.

If Orlando does offer a future first with Turkoglu, do you take it? Maybe not if it's a 2013 1st when they're still playoff contenders, but a further future first, maybe, as what if Dwight leaves when he's a true unrestricted FA and the Magic end up being terrible in 2014? I think that's how you set yourself up to "luck" into great picks.

-Sign short contracts to "compete" but "tank" into better 'own' picks

-take on contracts for future picks:
*Turkoglu for a 2014 1st (year after Dwight might bolt, but right now Orlando wants to complete)
*Mo Williams or any deal for future LAC firsts (maybe CP's knee gives out or he bolts when a FA, but they are trying to compete fully right now)
*Golden State: Jefferson, Biedrins (GS is generally poorly run, will probably be bad in the future, but may give some picks to get out of long term money)
*Chicago: Obviously in win now mode, do you take every bad contract (Boozer, Korver, etc) to help them now for Charlotte's future pick?
*Detroit seems poorly run, take Gordon and Villanueva for future pick and hope they continue to screw up the capspace?
*NY is always desparate, would you take Amare's uninsurable injured and downsliding production for a future first? That's how Chicago lucked into the Noah pick, by fleecing NY.
*Salmons and THornton from Sac
*Taking Brand from Philly with their pick in the future could allow them to make an FA run this offseason
*would Utah give up a pick (theirs, NJ) to dump Harris and Jefferson in order to add an FA this offseason to team up with Favors/Kantor?

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2012, 05:22:39 PM »

Offline Geo123

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There just aren't a lot of really intriguing FA's on the market in either 2012/2013. Surprisingly uninspiring list, actually. Therefore I'm starting to think the best path to relevancy will be tank and draft, in which case it makes sense to take on bad contracts as long as draft picks come with them.

If Orlando does offer a future first with Turkoglu, do you take it? Maybe not if it's a 2013 1st when they're still playoff contenders, but a further future first, maybe, as what if Dwight leaves when he's a true unrestricted FA and the Magic end up being terrible in 2014? I think that's how you set yourself up to "luck" into great picks.

-Sign short contracts to "compete" but "tank" into better 'own' picks

-take on contracts for future picks:
*Turkoglu for a 2014 1st (year after Dwight might bolt, but right now Orlando wants to complete)
*Mo Williams or any deal for future LAC firsts (maybe CP's knee gives out or he bolts when a FA, but they are trying to compete fully right now)
*Golden State: Jefferson, Biedrins (GS is generally poorly run, will probably be bad in the future, but may give some picks to get out of long term money)
*Chicago: Obviously in win now mode, do you take every bad contract (Boozer, Korver, etc) to help them now for Charlotte's future pick?
*Detroit seems poorly run, take Gordon and Villanueva for future pick and hope they continue to screw up the capspace?
*NY is always desparate, would you take Amare's uninsurable injured and downsliding production for a future first? That's how Chicago lucked into the Noah pick, by fleecing NY.
*Salmons and THornton from Sac
*Taking Brand from Philly with their pick in the future could allow them to make an FA run this offseason
*would Utah give up a pick (theirs, NJ) to dump Harris and Jefferson in order to add an FA this offseason to team up with Favors/Kantor?

No you don't take Hedu and that contract for anyting less than DHoward being involved.  Also, you don't take any of those guys for just a future #1.  You have a chance to remake your roster next year and then the follwing year you will have PP's expriing which will have value....

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2012, 05:23:52 PM »

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The idea of the above post is as follows:

Keep Rondo and Pierce,
Don'ts sign impact players, just short stopgaps.
Hopefully get lucky with 2 2012 firsts
Absorb bad contracts, getting paid with future picks to do so.
Suck next year, get good own 1st rounder (2013)

Go into 2013-14 with Rondo, Pierce (last legs),2 decent firsts from 2012, impact first from 2013, then hopefully have the acquired picks from trades this offseason pan out as high 2014 picks, have capspace in 2014, so you have Rondo, guys from 2012 (2), 2013 (1), 2014 (2) on controlled rookie deals, and capspace in that offseason. 

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2012, 05:25:56 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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There just aren't a lot of really intriguing FA's on the market in either 2012/2013. Surprisingly uninspiring list, actually. Therefore I'm starting to think the best path to relevancy will be tank and draft, in which case it makes sense to take on bad contracts as long as draft picks come with them.

If Orlando does offer a future first with Turkoglu, do you take it? Maybe not if it's a 2013 1st when they're still playoff contenders, but a further future first, maybe, as what if Dwight leaves when he's a true unrestricted FA and the Magic end up being terrible in 2014? I think that's how you set yourself up to "luck" into great picks.

-Sign short contracts to "compete" but "tank" into better 'own' picks

-take on contracts for future picks:
*Turkoglu for a 2014 1st (year after Dwight might bolt, but right now Orlando wants to complete)
*Mo Williams or any deal for future LAC firsts (maybe CP's knee gives out or he bolts when a FA, but they are trying to compete fully right now)
*Golden State: Jefferson, Biedrins (GS is generally poorly run, will probably be bad in the future, but may give some picks to get out of long term money)
*Chicago: Obviously in win now mode, do you take every bad contract (Boozer, Korver, etc) to help them now for Charlotte's future pick?
*Detroit seems poorly run, take Gordon and Villanueva for future pick and hope they continue to screw up the capspace?
*NY is always desparate, would you take Amare's uninsurable injured and downsliding production for a future first? That's how Chicago lucked into the Noah pick, by fleecing NY.
*Salmons and THornton from Sac
*Taking Brand from Philly with their pick in the future could allow them to make an FA run this offseason
*would Utah give up a pick (theirs, NJ) to dump Harris and Jefferson in order to add an FA this offseason to team up with Favors/Kantor?

No you don't take Hedu and that contract for anyting less than DHoward being involved.  Also, you don't take any of those guys for just a future #1.  You have a chance to remake your roster next year and then the follwing year you will have PP's expriing which will have value....

I just do not see impact free agents available this offseason or even next. All the good names are either unrestricted, team options, or very very likely to remain with their current team for bird rights. It's only worth making a splash if it gets you back into the top 6 teams of the whole league; otherwise you're cementing your place where the C's currently are: 6-8th seed, unable to add an impact player.

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2012, 05:28:48 PM »

Offline Geo123

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There just aren't a lot of really intriguing FA's on the market in either 2012/2013. Surprisingly uninspiring list, actually. Therefore I'm starting to think the best path to relevancy will be tank and draft, in which case it makes sense to take on bad contracts as long as draft picks come with them.

If Orlando does offer a future first with Turkoglu, do you take it? Maybe not if it's a 2013 1st when they're still playoff contenders, but a further future first, maybe, as what if Dwight leaves when he's a true unrestricted FA and the Magic end up being terrible in 2014? I think that's how you set yourself up to "luck" into great picks.

-Sign short contracts to "compete" but "tank" into better 'own' picks

-take on contracts for future picks:
*Turkoglu for a 2014 1st (year after Dwight might bolt, but right now Orlando wants to complete)
*Mo Williams or any deal for future LAC firsts (maybe CP's knee gives out or he bolts when a FA, but they are trying to compete fully right now)
*Golden State: Jefferson, Biedrins (GS is generally poorly run, will probably be bad in the future, but may give some picks to get out of long term money)
*Chicago: Obviously in win now mode, do you take every bad contract (Boozer, Korver, etc) to help them now for Charlotte's future pick?
*Detroit seems poorly run, take Gordon and Villanueva for future pick and hope they continue to screw up the capspace?
*NY is always desparate, would you take Amare's uninsurable injured and downsliding production for a future first? That's how Chicago lucked into the Noah pick, by fleecing NY.
*Salmons and THornton from Sac
*Taking Brand from Philly with their pick in the future could allow them to make an FA run this offseason
*would Utah give up a pick (theirs, NJ) to dump Harris and Jefferson in order to add an FA this offseason to team up with Favors/Kantor?

No you don't take Hedu and that contract for anyting less than DHoward being involved.  Also, you don't take any of those guys for just a future #1.  You have a chance to remake your roster next year and then the follwing year you will have PP's expriing which will have value....

I just do not see impact free agents available this offseason or even next. All the good names are either unrestricted, team options, or very very likely to remain with their current team for bird rights. It's only worth making a splash if it gets you back into the top 6 teams of the whole league; otherwise you're cementing your place where the C's currently are: 6-8th seed, unable to add an impact player.

So you don't think there are any impact FA's this summer yet you expect these teams to give you draft picks for bad contracts so they can make a run at these bad FA's?  Why would they do this?

Re: Off-Season trade partners for rebuilding
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2012, 05:33:13 PM »

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There just aren't a lot of really intriguing FA's on the market in either 2012/2013. Surprisingly uninspiring list, actually. Therefore I'm starting to think the best path to relevancy will be tank and draft, in which case it makes sense to take on bad contracts as long as draft picks come with them.

If Orlando does offer a future first with Turkoglu, do you take it? Maybe not if it's a 2013 1st when they're still playoff contenders, but a further future first, maybe, as what if Dwight leaves when he's a true unrestricted FA and the Magic end up being terrible in 2014? I think that's how you set yourself up to "luck" into great picks.

-Sign short contracts to "compete" but "tank" into better 'own' picks

-take on contracts for future picks:
*Turkoglu for a 2014 1st (year after Dwight might bolt, but right now Orlando wants to complete)
*Mo Williams or any deal for future LAC firsts (maybe CP's knee gives out or he bolts when a FA, but they are trying to compete fully right now)
*Golden State: Jefferson, Biedrins (GS is generally poorly run, will probably be bad in the future, but may give some picks to get out of long term money)
*Chicago: Obviously in win now mode, do you take every bad contract (Boozer, Korver, etc) to help them now for Charlotte's future pick?
*Detroit seems poorly run, take Gordon and Villanueva for future pick and hope they continue to screw up the capspace?
*NY is always desparate, would you take Amare's uninsurable injured and downsliding production for a future first? That's how Chicago lucked into the Noah pick, by fleecing NY.
*Salmons and THornton from Sac
*Taking Brand from Philly with their pick in the future could allow them to make an FA run this offseason
*would Utah give up a pick (theirs, NJ) to dump Harris and Jefferson in order to add an FA this offseason to team up with Favors/Kantor?

No you don't take Hedu and that contract for anyting less than DHoward being involved.  Also, you don't take any of those guys for just a future #1.  You have a chance to remake your roster next year and then the follwing year you will have PP's expriing which will have value....

I just do not see impact free agents available this offseason or even next. All the good names are either unrestricted, team options, or very very likely to remain with their current team for bird rights. It's only worth making a splash if it gets you back into the top 6 teams of the whole league; otherwise you're cementing your place where the C's currently are: 6-8th seed, unable to add an impact player.

So you don't think there are any impact FA's this summer yet you expect these teams to give you draft picks for bad contracts so they can make a run at these bad FA's?  Why would they do this?

Multiple reasons.
First, they are bad offseasons if you are trying to land a franchise player or build a new big three. However, they are okay if you are close or have a champtionship level player to build around (chicago, philly, orlando, LAC). Rondo just is too deficient to be a true franchise player; he needs to be the 2nd-3rd best player.
Second, if teams are looking to stay under the tax and save money for financial reasons but also keep FA flexibility (Golden State, Utah) they may be willing to deal.