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Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« on: March 02, 2012, 05:06:05 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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For any player on the roster, you have the option of trading him straight up for the nth pick in the 2012 NBA draft.  For what value of n would you not make the deal?

I think it's been established that most people here would happily trade Dooling for the 60th pick (the last of the second round) and probably the 90th pick if the NBA added a third round.  I think almost everyone would trade Rondo if n=1, some would balk if n=5, more if n=10.  I'm not sure if anyone values Rondo so poorly that they would swap him for the 20th pick.  Some people say they would want to get anything for the expiring contracts of Garnett and Allen, but I've also had posters say that they would rather just keep Ray if a middle second round pick (and another expiring contract) was the likely return for him.

I think the most interesting players to play this game with are Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Johnson, and Bradley.
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2012, 05:20:02 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:06:05 PM
For any player on the roster, you have the option of trading him straight up for the nth pick in the 2012 NBA draft.  For what value of n would you not make the deal?

I think it's been established that most people here would happily trade Dooling for the 60th pick (the last of the second round) and probably the 90th pick if the NBA added a third round.  I think almost everyone would trade Rondo if n=1, some would balk if n=5, more if n=10.  I'm not sure if anyone values Rondo so poorly that they would swap him for the 20th pick.  Some people say they would want to get anything for the expiring contracts of Garnett and Allen, but I've also had posters say that they would rather just keep Ray if a middle second round pick (and another expiring contract) was the likely return for him.

I think the most interesting players to play this game with are Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Johnson, and Bradley.

I haven't studied the draft all that hard, but I'll play anyway.

Rondo: 1
Pierce: 2
Garnett: 5
Allen: 8
Wilcox: 12
Bradley: 12
Johnson: 12
Pietrus: 13
Bass: 13
O'Neal: 15
Moore: 18
Pavlovic: 18
Daniels: 20
Stiemsa: 24
Dooling: 30
« Last Edit: March 02, 2012, 07:15:12 PM by Celtics18 »
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DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson
Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2012, 05:27:28 PM »

Offline theswitch

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Quote from: Celtics18 on March 02, 2012, 05:20:02 PM
Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:06:05 PM
For any player on the roster, you have the option of trading him straight up for the nth pick in the 2012 NBA draft.  For what value of n would you not make the deal?

I think it's been established that most people here would happily trade Dooling for the 60th pick (the last of the second round) and probably the 90th pick if the NBA added a third round.  I think almost everyone would trade Rondo if n=1, some would balk if n=5, more if n=10.  I'm not sure if anyone values Rondo so poorly that they would swap him for the 20th pick.  Some people say they would want to get anything for the expiring contracts of Garnett and Allen, but I've also had posters say that they would rather just keep Ray if a middle second round pick (and another expiring contract) was the likely return for him.

I think the most interesting players to play this game with are Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Johnson, and Bradley.

I haven't studied the draft all that hard, but I'll play anyway.

Rondo: 1
Pierce: 2
Garnett: 5
Allen: 8
Wilcox: 12
Bradley: 12
Johnson: 12
Pietrus: 13
Bass: 13
O'Neal: 15
Moore: 18
Pavlovic: 18
Moore: 20
Stiemsa: 24
Dooling: 30

What? You would only trade Pavlovic for the 18th pick? Moore was a late 2nd rounder in a poor draft last year, and you wouldn't take less than a 20? Steamer 24?

Come on now, haha.
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2012, 05:34:11 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Quote from: theswitch on March 02, 2012, 05:27:28 PM
Quote from: Celtics18 on March 02, 2012, 05:20:02 PM
Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:06:05 PM
For any player on the roster, you have the option of trading him straight up for the nth pick in the 2012 NBA draft.  For what value of n would you not make the deal?

I think it's been established that most people here would happily trade Dooling for the 60th pick (the last of the second round) and probably the 90th pick if the NBA added a third round.  I think almost everyone would trade Rondo if n=1, some would balk if n=5, more if n=10.  I'm not sure if anyone values Rondo so poorly that they would swap him for the 20th pick.  Some people say they would want to get anything for the expiring contracts of Garnett and Allen, but I've also had posters say that they would rather just keep Ray if a middle second round pick (and another expiring contract) was the likely return for him.

I think the most interesting players to play this game with are Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Johnson, and Bradley.

I haven't studied the draft all that hard, but I'll play anyway.

Rondo: 1
Pierce: 2
Garnett: 5
Allen: 8
Wilcox: 12
Bradley: 12
Johnson: 12
Pietrus: 13
Bass: 13
O'Neal: 15
Moore: 18
Pavlovic: 18
Moore: 20
Stiemsa: 24
Dooling: 30

What? You would only trade Pavlovic for the 18th pick? Moore was a late 2nd rounder in a poor draft last year, and you wouldn't take less than a 20? Steamer 24?

Come on now, haha.

What are yours?
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DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson
Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2012, 05:34:17 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Quote from: Celtics18 on March 02, 2012, 05:20:02 PM
Rondo: 1
Pierce: 2
Garnett: 5
Allen: 8
Wilcox: 12
Bradley: 12
Johnson: 12
Pietrus: 13
Bass: 13
O'Neal: 15
Moore: 18
Pavlovic: 18
Moore: 20
Stiemsa: 24
Dooling: 30

I find it interesting that you're saying you wouldn't trade anyone on the roster for an early second-round pick.
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"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2012, 05:36:41 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:34:17 PM
Quote from: Celtics18 on March 02, 2012, 05:20:02 PM
Rondo: 1
Pierce: 2
Garnett: 5
Allen: 8
Wilcox: 12
Bradley: 12
Johnson: 12
Pietrus: 13
Bass: 13
O'Neal: 15
Moore: 18
Pavlovic: 18
Moore: 20
Stiemsa: 24
Dooling: 30

I find it interesting that you're saying you wouldn't trade anyone on the roster for an early second-round pick.

O.K., maybe I have my bottom 4 ranked a little high.  I'd like to see somebody else's picks.

Fun game. 
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DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson
Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2012, 05:42:48 PM »

Online Who

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The Big Four

Rajon Rondo -- top five
Paul Pierce -- top five, maybe top ten
Kevin Garnett -- lottery, maybe top twenty
Ray Allen -- late first

Valuable Role Players

Brandon Bass -- late first, early second rounder
Mickael Pietrus -- late first, early second rounder

The Rest

Unsure on Triple J and Bradley. If there was someone in the top twenty I was a big fan of, then yes. Otherwise, I'd just keep them.

The rest aren't worth anything.
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2012, 05:52:27 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Quote from: Who on March 02, 2012, 05:42:48 PM
Unsure on Triple J and Bradley. If there was someone in the top twenty I was a big fan of, then yes. Otherwise, I'd just keep them.

The rest aren't worth anything.

So, you'd definitely trade Rondo if someone offered you the #5 overall pick, but you would want to wait and see who was available at #5 before you traded Bradley or Johnson?  And everyone you didn't name you would happily trade for the last pick of the second round?
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2012, 05:57:05 PM »

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Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:52:27 PM
Quote from: Who on March 02, 2012, 05:42:48 PM
Unsure on Triple J and Bradley. If there was someone in the top twenty I was a big fan of, then yes. Otherwise, I'd just keep them.

The rest aren't worth anything.

So, you'd definitely trade Rondo if someone offered you the #5 overall pick, but you would want to wait and see who was available at #5 before you traded Bradley or Johnson?  And everyone you didn't name you would happily trade for the last pick of the second round?
What? Sorry, I am confused.

The draft pick I chose was a ball-park figure where I'd consider moving them. Less than that point and I wouldn't do it.
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2012, 06:00:18 PM »

Offline henr1k

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It's silly thread but i have extra free time so..

Rondo: 3 or better. Maybe for #4 or #5. It depends who is left on the board.
Pierce: Only guy i wouldn't trade. Loyalty > business in my book.
Allen: lottery pick
Garnett: see Allen

Bradley: Would like to keep him to see if he can develop his offensive game a bit. Would trade for Top 10 pick for sure. Maybe even Top 15, it depends. I think 2012 draft is overhyped. Could be wrong.
Johnson: Mid to late first round.
Bass: Would like to keep him as a bench player if possible. I guess mid to late first rounder as well.
Pietrus: See Bass

Wilcox: first round pick
O'Neal: First round pick and would send a thank you card.

Dooling: anything i could get. Early second round sounds great.
Pavlovic: see Dooling
Daniels:  see Dooling

Moore and Greg have no trade value so I would keep them as a 3rd string players. Would ask for first round pick if Otis Smith called.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2012, 06:06:40 PM by henr1k »
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2012, 06:10:14 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Quote from: Celtics18 on March 02, 2012, 05:36:41 PM
Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:34:17 PM
Quote from: Celtics18 on March 02, 2012, 05:20:02 PM
Pavlovic: 18
Moore: 20
Stiemsa: 24
Dooling: 30

I find it interesting that you're saying you wouldn't trade anyone on the roster for an early second-round pick.

O.K., maybe I have my bottom 4 ranked a little high.  I'd like to see somebody else's picks.

Fun game. 

Dooling and Moore are easily replaceable with D-League talent, so I'd probably be happy to get anything for them.  Moore has some usefulness in trades because his contract is unguaranteed for next season if he is cut for a certain date, so I may want to keep him around for a bit rather than take one of the last 5-10 picks of the second round.

I just realized you put Moore twice and forgot Daniels.  I'd lump Daniels in with Dooling as a player I would trade for anything.

Stiemsma is not so easy to replace mid-season and the Celtics do need some depth at center with O'Neal and Wilcox being equally injury-prone.  Even if the Celtics were well out of the playoffs, they would still need a warm body to fill up minutes.  He's better than what you would expect from a typical late second-round pick, so I would want a pick in the 40-45 range or better.

Pavlovic is a useful player as a fifth wing.  I'd trade him for anything if the team doesn't care about the playoffs this year, but I'd probably need 45 or better if he is needed for depth.
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2012, 06:11:43 PM »

Offline banty19

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This is really tough for a lot of reasons but I'll base it on these assumptions:
-This draft is supposed to be really good.
-The Celtics want as many draft picks they can get.
-The Celtics aren't going to be title contenders so I'll take what I can get. Hope I could do better, but these are the bare minimums.
-I'm generally in favor of blowing up. I'd rather keep mediocre young players than old guys.

Rondo: 3 (a few years left, cost-controlled)
JJ: 15
Avery: 15
Pierce: 15 (a few years left but a bad contract)
KG: 20 (expiring, probably retiring, tough contract to trade, most contenders only have crap picks)
Ray: 20 (ditto but not retiring and easier contract)
Stiemer: 25
Bass: 30 (expiring or player option that hurts cap space)
Wilcox: 30
Pietrus: 30
Jermaine: 40
Moore: 40
Pavlovic: 40
Dooling: no pick required
Marquis: no pick required
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2012, 06:14:56 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Quote from: Who on March 02, 2012, 05:57:05 PM
Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:52:27 PM
Quote from: Who on March 02, 2012, 05:42:48 PM
Unsure on Triple J and Bradley. If there was someone in the top twenty I was a big fan of, then yes. Otherwise, I'd just keep them.

The rest aren't worth anything.

So, you'd definitely trade Rondo if someone offered you the #5 overall pick, but you would want to wait and see who was available at #5 before you traded Bradley or Johnson?  And everyone you didn't name you would happily trade for the last pick of the second round?
What? Sorry, I am confused.

The draft pick I chose was a ball-park figure where I'd consider moving them. Less than that point and I wouldn't do it.

I'm going to guess that would instantly trade Johnson or Bradley if someone offered you a top five pick for either.  #20 seems borderline for you.  I'm just trying figure out where in between those two numbers is where you start to have doubt and would no longer make a trade without knowing who is available.
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"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2012, 06:25:01 PM »

Online Who

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Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 06:14:56 PM
Quote from: Who on March 02, 2012, 05:57:05 PM
Quote from: LooseCannon on March 02, 2012, 05:52:27 PM
Quote from: Who on March 02, 2012, 05:42:48 PM
Unsure on Triple J and Bradley. If there was someone in the top twenty I was a big fan of, then yes. Otherwise, I'd just keep them.

The rest aren't worth anything.

So, you'd definitely trade Rondo if someone offered you the #5 overall pick, but you would want to wait and see who was available at #5 before you traded Bradley or Johnson?  And everyone you didn't name you would happily trade for the last pick of the second round?
What? Sorry, I am confused.

The draft pick I chose was a ball-park figure where I'd consider moving them. Less than that point and I wouldn't do it.

I'm going to guess that would instantly trade Johnson or Bradley if someone offered you a top five pick for either.  #20 seems borderline for you.  I'm just trying figure out where in between those two numbers is where you start to have doubt and would no longer make a trade without knowing who is available.
Ah okay. I am with you now. I understand.

Rondo -- definitely top two, consider top five
Pierce -- definite top five, consider top ten maybe late lottery if someone I really liked was there

Bass, Garnett, Ray and Pietrus -- I expect all players to leave in the off-season so that rough ball park is pretty much a definite for each one of them.

Bradley and JJ -- late lottery definite (and #15, #16) ... I am pessimistic about this draft's talent pool once you leave the lottery so I'd be getting nervous right away after the lottery. I'd probably do #15 and #16 too but I'd be getting increasingly nervous. No longer a definite from that point down. I would only make a move, and only on the day, if I was sure someone was there (#17 or further down) that I liked. Otherwise, I'd just keep Bradley and JJJ and develop them.
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Re: Simple Test for Player Value - What Pick Would You Trade Them For?
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2012, 06:51:29 PM »

Offline slamdunk

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Rondo: 5
Pierce: 15
Garnett: 25
Allen: 15
Wilcox: 35
Bradley: 25
Johnson: 30
Pietrus: 60
Bass: 15
O'Neal: 60
Moore: 40
Pavlovic: 60
Stiemsa: 30
Dooling: 45
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