March 1st - blow it up

[SF Celtic]

[LarBrd33]

I think danny will get assets if he can.  Nothing at all is happening until Dwight's situation is resolved so we might be waiting until the deadline.

Too many dominos.  Smart money is on Dwight getting traded before the deadline (if you're Orlando do you really think you're letting him get away for nothing... or are they that thick that they expect to re-sign him in the offseason?  At the deadline don't they move him?).

So say he gets traded to LA for Bynum... that means Deron is now VERY available (since he's not re-signing if they don't land Dwight)... So from Boston's perspective maybe they hold off and try to land Deron for Rondo. 

Say Dwight is traded to the Nets for Lopez + whatever...  Now suddenly Ainge might rethink his free agency perspective.  Maybe there's offers on the table for an Al Jefferson or a Pau Gasol... maybe he blows it up for draft picks and decides to build through the draft... utilizing the extra cap space the way the Thunder did (taking on bad 1 year contracts and earning late 1st rounders for their troubles) or through trades (taking on Joe Johnson-type salary and completely absorbing his contract without sending salary back to Atlanta, for example)

Say Dwight gets traded to Golden State for some wild package revolving around Monta Ellis, Kwame's expiring, draft picks and young prospects... once again you probably make a play for Deron.

Say Dwight gets traded to LA and Deron gets traded to Golden State for Ellis and draft picks...  you weigh your options again.

Say Dwight gets traded to Chicago for some package around Noah and then say Deron gets traded to some team not named Boston.  Does that hurt or help our chances of trading a Pierce or Ray to Chicago?  Do they throw us the Bobcats protected 1st rounder (that they probably can't use for a few years anyways) just to lock in Ray Allen and put them over the top this year?

Say Orlando does the inconceivable and hangs onto Dwight.  The Nets now keep Deron, because they know they have a 90% chance of signing Dwight in the offseason (20 mil in cap space... can KEEP Lopez and Brooks and make themselves an instant threat next year)...   BUT... if this happens and you're Ainge, you now absolutely HAVE to trade Pierce for expiring contracts... either to Indiana (they can absorb his salary) or Chicago (Korver, Watson and Brewer have unguaranteed contracts next year)... simply so you have enough money to ATTEMPT to lure both Deron AND Dwight to Boston in the offseason (in this scenario Rondo would be traded in the offseason to the highest bidder to make room for Deron).   

Independently of Dwight's situation, there's this EXTREMELY small hope that this team can fix their MASSIVE roster flaws through some miracle.  And by miracle, I mean... solving their starting center issue.  If you're AInge you have to be keeping a watchful eye on Chris Kaman's situation.  If he's bought out, you get on your knees and beg him to come to Boston... that might be JUST what this team needs to make a playoff runs.   Then perhaps your focus is on keeping the band together until the end of the season.  But what if neither Deron or Dwight gets traded, you ask?  Well then I guess the Celtics would have to consider amnestying Pierce in the offseason (getting nothing in return instead OF something, but at least carving out enough cap space to sign them if they actually want to wear Green).   Or perhaps you do a crazy deadline deal of Rondo for Nash and Gortat... again freeing up enough cap room to make a run at those guys in the offseason.

Point is... nothing is going to happen until that big domino falls.  You simply can't make a decision on this franchise until you know what your options are... and chances are we aren't going to know the final answer on that domino until the final day (or at the very least after the allstar break since it's IN Orlando and there is no way they'd trade him until after it for obvious reasons)...

I have to think AInge has had countless discussions and probably already has a dozen hypotheticals lined up... maybe even a few handshake deals set up contingent on what happens to Dwight.   It'll probably be one of those things where teams are sending in trades to the league office at the last minute and stuff trickles into the media hours after the deadline ends. 

There are other teams in play for Dwight right now like Chicago ... and since our options are limited on trading Ray/Pierce, you have to imagine they are holding up the process as well.  Make no mistake, though... this team is pretty much dead as it's currently constructed.  The deadline can't get her soon enough for Ainge... this has got to be brutal for him to wait this out.

[celtics2]

It only takes 1 impact player. Look at Lin in NY. Took awhile but he's arrived. I hope Danny doesn't get sentimental and hold onto players.

[tyrone biggums]

I realize this will never happen, but I actually think one of the most logical moves would be to waive both Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett (gasp!).

Yeah, someone should start a thread about that idea.

You do realize on the main forum there is about 5 rebuilding threads multiple we suck threads and one optimistic one. The fact that someone would do another thread about waiving Allen and KG will probably happen. By the way this is a terrible idea both guys are still solid role players, why are fans in such a rush to take on other teams trash? None of this would have had happened if we didn't trade Bill Russell Jr. last year for Jeff Green (sarcasm).

[chambers]

People seem to forget the very real possibility of Ray and KG signing on to our bench for a minimum next season, which would be excellent, but won't happen if we trade them for crumbs.
Having these guys around to develop our youngsters for a year or two would be much more valuable in my opinion than getting another 25-30th pick.

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I've definitely not "forgotten" that possibility.  I just don't really see the point.  Could you explain to me what good Ray and KG would do for a rebuilding team, other than serving as mentors for young players?  Keep in mind that if Ray and KG come back, they'll likely expect to each play at least 20 minutes per game, if not start. 

Those are minutes that could go to young players who have a future with the team.  We can sign other veterans to the minimum who won't expect to play to serve in that mentoring capacity (e.g. Keyon Dooling).

I think if KG and Ray continue their careers after this season, it makes the most sense for them to try to go out on a high note playing with a contender -- elsewhere.

You make some very good points.
I know you are a supporter of having the worst team possible to essentially get the highest pick in the draft- this is something I support if they decide to take that route.

I guess it depends on what road Danny wants to take. He has all this cap room which he must want to spend on quality players/contend with, or take on salary to acquire picks with. If he goes the super band aid version and tries to improve our team with free agents surrounding Rondo,
I stand by wanting those 2 guys in the locker room, chipping in 15-20 minutes a night and acting as mentors/future coaches with us. If we get an elite power forward, I want KG guiding him somehow. Same if we get Austin Rivers with Ray.

But yes, you are right that if we go full blown rebuild from the sewer/bottom/bumsville NBA mode, having them will probably just give us more wins than we need or want come 2013/14 lottery time.

If he plans to build a contender of some kind with his imagination +capspace, keep em and let them mentor the kids Avery/JJJ/both picks this year.

I would just love to know what the C's brass are thinking regarding the next 5 year period. Build around Rondo or kaboom.

[Jeff]

I still don't know how you are going to get a 1st rounder for any of (or all of) the big 3

sad but true (at least in my opinion)

[LarBrd33]

I still don't know how you are going to get a 1st rounder for any of (or all of) the big 3

sad but true (at least in my opinion)

Jeff you don't think a contending team would give up a late 1st rounder for Paul Pierce?  What's the #25-30 pick to a team like Chicago.  If Pierce gets them over the hump... it's worth it.

In a couple rare instances, the same can be said of Pierce.

KG can't be traded.  Impossible.

[Jon]

Again, this is all easier said than done.

Everyone in the media likes to say we need to get "value" for the Big Three before they walk, but very few have any suggestions about how to do it. And usually those who make suggestions don't have realistic ones.

Here's the deal:

Bad, mediocre, and just "good" teams don't want the Big Three as players because they won't make them contenders this year and likely won't be around if/when they eventually do.

The borderline great and great teams do have interest, but don't have/won't part with the assets that we'd like and would actually help us.

The only thing deal I really see working would be to convince a bad team to take  Garnett as a salary dump. We would then take back either a really bad contract or 2-3 smaller bad ones. In exchange for doing that, the C's would get a couple of good young players and/or draft picks.  

Ideally the "bad" deals we take back would only go two more years, corresponding with the end of PP's deal.  Thus, we'd move back our big FA push to 2014 and in the meantime look to cultivate our current young players, future draft picks, and the young assets that come as part of the KG deal.

It would actually give us a lot of options in the summer of 2013 too. We could either wait until the following summer and make a big FA push or repeat the summer of 2007 and package the expiring contracts we have with the young talent we've accumulated and attempt to trade for stars to put around Rondo.

Other than the above, I don't see many scenarios worth doing involving the Big Three. I certainly wouldn't trade any of them to a contender for bad contracts and late first round picks. If we take on bad deals, we better get something good in return.

[jdub1660]

Not to be too pessimistic but I agree here fully...

We aren't at all likely to land a big free agent this year, so why have all this cap space?

Trade Ray to GSW for Biedrens and a 2012 1st rounder
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6prvvl3
Trade Pierce to Bulls for Korver,Brewer,Waston and a 1st
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6qvpm6w
Trade KG back to TWolves for Darko,Miller,Ridnour,Beasley and 1st
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7wl46uo

OKC was able to completely rebuild using that draft with 3 picks in the first round. If we could pull off SOMETHING like this, then we could completely rebuild with a new squad of young legs from a deep draft. Keep Rondo and start rebuilding.

Rondo Watson(exp/TO) Ridnour 1st
Korver(exp) Moore 1st
Beasley Brewer(exp) Green 1st
JJJ Bass(exp/PO) 1st
Biedrens, Darko(exp), Miller(exp/TO) 1st

Using team options we could end up cutting around 10 mil in salaries, and/or having 6 expiring contracts to use as trade bait.
With 4 or more picks in a draft like this, I wouldn't mind watching my Celtics rebuild for a few years with the possibility of ending up like the Thunder

[elcotte]

I think danny will get assets if he can.  Nothing at all is happening until Dwight's situation is resolved so we might be waiting until the deadline.

Too many dominos.  Smart money is on Dwight getting traded before the deadline (if you're Orlando do you really think you're letting him get away for nothing... or are they that thick that they expect to re-sign him in the offseason?  At the deadline don't they move him?).

So say he gets traded to LA for Bynum... that means Deron is now VERY available (since he's not re-signing if they don't land Dwight)... So from Boston's perspective maybe they hold off and try to land Deron for Rondo. 

Say Dwight is traded to the Nets for Lopez + whatever...  Now suddenly Ainge might rethink his free agency perspective.  Maybe there's offers on the table for an Al Jefferson or a Pau Gasol... maybe he blows it up for draft picks and decides to build through the draft... utilizing the extra cap space the way the Thunder did (taking on bad 1 year contracts and earning late 1st rounders for their troubles) or through trades (taking on Joe Johnson-type salary and completely absorbing his contract without sending salary back to Atlanta, for example)

Say Dwight gets traded to Golden State for some wild package revolving around Monta Ellis, Kwame's expiring, draft picks and young prospects... once again you probably make a play for Deron.

Say Dwight gets traded to LA and Deron gets traded to Golden State for Ellis and draft picks...  you weigh your options again.

Say Dwight gets traded to Chicago for some package around Noah and then say Deron gets traded to some team not named Boston.  Does that hurt or help our chances of trading a Pierce or Ray to Chicago?  Do they throw us the Bobcats protected 1st rounder (that they probably can't use for a few years anyways) just to lock in Ray Allen and put them over the top this year?

Say Orlando does the inconceivable and hangs onto Dwight.  The Nets now keep Deron, because they know they have a 90% chance of signing Dwight in the offseason (20 mil in cap space... can KEEP Lopez and Brooks and make themselves an instant threat next year)...   BUT... if this happens and you're Ainge, you now absolutely HAVE to trade Pierce for expiring contracts... either to Indiana (they can absorb his salary) or Chicago (Korver, Watson and Brewer have unguaranteed contracts next year)... simply so you have enough money to ATTEMPT to lure both Deron AND Dwight to Boston in the offseason (in this scenario Rondo would be traded in the offseason to the highest bidder to make room for Deron).   

Independently of Dwight's situation, there's this EXTREMELY small hope that this team can fix their MASSIVE roster flaws through some miracle.  And by miracle, I mean... solving their starting center issue.  If you're AInge you have to be keeping a watchful eye on Chris Kaman's situation.  If he's bought out, you get on your knees and beg him to come to Boston... that might be JUST what this team needs to make a playoff runs.   Then perhaps your focus is on keeping the band together until the end of the season.  But what if neither Deron or Dwight gets traded, you ask?  Well then I guess the Celtics would have to consider amnestying Pierce in the offseason (getting nothing in return instead OF something, but at least carving out enough cap space to sign them if they actually want to wear Green).   Or perhaps you do a crazy deadline deal of Rondo for Nash and Gortat... again freeing up enough cap room to make a run at those guys in the offseason.

Point is... nothing is going to happen until that big domino falls.  You simply can't make a decision on this franchise until you know what your options are... and chances are we aren't going to know the final answer on that domino until the final day (or at the very least after the allstar break since it's IN Orlando and there is no way they'd trade him until after it for obvious reasons)...

I have to think AInge has had countless discussions and probably already has a dozen hypotheticals lined up... maybe even a few handshake deals set up contingent on what happens to Dwight.   It'll probably be one of those things where teams are sending in trades to the league office at the last minute and stuff trickles into the media hours after the deadline ends. 

There are other teams in play for Dwight right now like Chicago ... and since our options are limited on trading Ray/Pierce, you have to imagine they are holding up the process as well.  Make no mistake, though... this team is pretty much dead as it's currently constructed.  The deadline can't get her soon enough for Ainge... this has got to be brutal for him to wait this out.

Good post. I agree.

[Inside-Out]

The only thing deal I really see working would be to convince a bad team to take  Garnett as a salary dump. We would then take back either a really bad contract or 2-3 smaller bad ones. In exchange for doing that, the C's would get a couple of good young players and/or draft picks.  

This would be a repeat of the first Antione Walker trade, the worst move of Danny's tenure that tied our hands for several years of cap hell with mediocre players.

[Jon]

The only thing deal I really see working would be to convince a bad team to take  Garnett as a salary dump. We would then take back either a really bad contract or 2-3 smaller bad ones. In exchange for doing that, the C's would get a couple of good young players and/or draft picks.  

This would be a repeat of the first Antione Walker trade, the worst move of Danny's tenure that tied our hands for several years of cap hell with mediocre players.

I'm advocating against simply trading for bad contracts. 

However, if Danny thinks he's not going to get a great 2012 free agent anyway (which is quite likely the case), we can offer other teams cap space in exchange for bad contracts AND high draft picks. 

For instance, if we offered to take Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva off of Detroit's hands for KG, what else would they throw in? We'd be saving them 46 million dollars over the next two seasons.  Could we get their first round pick?  Would they throw in one of their good young players?

I'm certainly not advocating just taking back bad contracts.  But if it's looking like the summer of 2013 or even 2014 is when we're going to make our big FA push, this is a way we can potentially get value for KG or Ray.

Because  there really are no other ways.  No bad team wants KG or Ray simply for their their talent and all good teams are going to give us is bad contracts and late first round picks.  At least with the scenario I proposed above, we could potentially get a game-changer for down the road. 

[SHAQATTACK]

One TV "expert" take on the DH deal...that is locking up many teams from doing deals.... is that they just will not trade period, they will promise him better players and the give him the 30 mill. SO he'll either take it or walk. ANd Orlando seems to be headed down that path and content to live with the gamble. Every situation is different. I happen to believe this TV guy is right. Cleveland and Orlando is not the same exact situation. NY 'overpaid for ballhog Mello , they got reamed good by Denver.

I still think LA has the only near term shot at a Orlando trade, but they have to give up Bynum and Pau to get DH.  I think that is probally the only deal that Orlando would give into.

Its basically up to the Mitch and Jerry and the Busses.  Orlando want both , LA don't want to give up both. Or maybe they haven't decided yet and are playing poker with Orlando , see who crys uncle first. (my guess)  

Nobody is really offering the type of franchise player, like LBJ or ROSE or Kobe that Orlando wants as an equal trade.  Why take on players that really aren't part of what your trying to do.  

I betting the Lakers won't trade both their bigs, and  DH doesn't decide till after the season what he is going to do.

SO while this is going on many teams are just in limbo.  

[Inside-Out]

The only thing deal I really see working would be to convince a bad team to take  Garnett as a salary dump. We would then take back either a really bad contract or 2-3 smaller bad ones. In exchange for doing that, the C's would get a couple of good young players and/or draft picks.  

This would be a repeat of the first Antione Walker trade, the worst move of Danny's tenure that tied our hands for several years of cap hell with mediocre players.

I'm advocating against simply trading for bad contracts. 

However, if Danny thinks he's not going to get a great 2012 free agent anyway (which is quite likely the case), we can offer other teams cap space in exchange for bad contracts AND high draft picks. 

For instance, if we offered to take Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva off of Detroit's hands for KG, what else would they throw in? We'd be saving them 46 million dollars over the next two seasons.  Could we get their first round pick?  Would they throw in one of their good young players?

I'm certainly not advocating just taking back bad contracts.  But if it's looking like the summer of 2013 or even 2014 is when we're going to make our big FA push, this is a way we can potentially get value for KG or Ray.

Because  there really are no other ways.  No bad team wants KG or Ray simply for their their talent and all good teams are going to give us is bad contracts and late first round picks.  At least with the scenario I proposed above, we could potentially get a game-changer for down the road. 

Ben Gordon isn't a bad player, and compared to some other contracts around the league (i.e. Trav Outlaw), it isn't THAT bad.  I'd be okay with having BG on the C's, but really would prefer to simply enjoy the assets we have (two firsts already, and extra early 2nd I think, plus our own mid-round 2nd) and let KG expire.  

Cap space can facilitate better deals down the road to pick up an extra pick without getting the bad contract.

[Jon]

The only thing deal I really see working would be to convince a bad team to take  Garnett as a salary dump. We would then take back either a really bad contract or 2-3 smaller bad ones. In exchange for doing that, the C's would get a couple of good young players and/or draft picks.  

This would be a repeat of the first Antione Walker trade, the worst move of Danny's tenure that tied our hands for several years of cap hell with mediocre players.

I'm advocating against simply trading for bad contracts. 

However, if Danny thinks he's not going to get a great 2012 free agent anyway (which is quite likely the case), we can offer other teams cap space in exchange for bad contracts AND high draft picks. 

For instance, if we offered to take Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva off of Detroit's hands for KG, what else would they throw in? We'd be saving them 46 million dollars over the next two seasons.  Could we get their first round pick?  Would they throw in one of their good young players?

I'm certainly not advocating just taking back bad contracts.  But if it's looking like the summer of 2013 or even 2014 is when we're going to make our big FA push, this is a way we can potentially get value for KG or Ray.

Because  there really are no other ways.  No bad team wants KG or Ray simply for their their talent and all good teams are going to give us is bad contracts and late first round picks.  At least with the scenario I proposed above, we could potentially get a game-changer for down the road. 

Ben Gordon isn't a bad player, and compared to some other contracts around the league (i.e. Trav Outlaw), it isn't THAT bad.  I'd be okay with having BG on the C's, but really would prefer to simply enjoy the assets we have (two firsts already, and extra early 2nd I think, plus our own mid-round 2nd) and let KG expire.  

Cap space can facilitate better deals down the road to pick up an extra pick without getting the bad contract.

I've been on the "no trade" bandwagon myself the whole season. 

I think most trades won't benefit this team since it will require us to take on more salary that we don't want.

However, at the same time, I don't think we'll actually get any big free agents this summer, and that we'll likely have to wait until 2013 or even 2014.

If that's the case, why not see if we can get a bad team to give us a nice young piece in exchange for salary relief?

What if Detroit gave us Brandon Wright in exchange for taking on Charlie Villanueva or Ben Gordon?

Do I like either Villanueva or Gordon?  Nope.  But we could then use Wright, JJ, Bradley, our picks this year and see what we look like in the summer of 2013.  If they look really promising, we can simply hold onto Gordon and Villanueva and make a big push to add a free agent or two in 2014.  If they only look "good," we could try to package them with the expiring contracts of Gordon and Villanueva in a KG/Ray type move from 2007. 

Am I 100% behind this idea?  No.  But I think it's the only way we can get value for KG or Ray.  But I'm 100% on board with letting them expire too.