Author Topic: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space  (Read 13242 times)

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Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« on: January 25, 2012, 03:44:18 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm sick of saying the same thing in thread after thread.

Next year we have:
Pierce - 16.7 mil
Rondo - 11 mil
Bradley - 1.6 mil
JaJuan Johnson - 1.1 mil

+ Two 1st round picks (our own and the Clippers) - Roughly 3 mil

= 33.4 mil

Cap is 58 mil  That leaves 24.6 mil.  Lets call it 25 mil.

Brandon Bass has a 4 mil player option.  I'm assuming he'll want more than that and opt out (otherwise we'll only have 21 mil in cap space)


Tell me your plan to divide up that money.  Players you need to consider:  Bass (over 4 mil), Jeff Green, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Pietrus, the entire free agent pool

Common misconception:  You can't use up that 25 mil and then use "bird rights" to extend Ray and KG.  You must renounce bird rights to take advantage of the cap room.  So if you want to keep Ray and KG, you need to factor them into the 25 mil.

Additionally:  I don't believe a team under the cap at the start of the offseason gets to use the MLE.  So after you use up the 25 mil, I believe we are stuck signing players to the vet minimum.




Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2012, 03:50:18 PM »

Offline Chris

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Assuming guys like Howard are off the table, the only free agent I am strongly interested in is Spencer Hawes.

I would offer Hawes up to something in the range of 10-12 million per year.  I think he is just coming into his own now that he is growing into his body, and I think he will be a top 5 center in this league.

Then, I would use the rest to consider trades, but if nothing presents itself that made sense, I would try to bring back some combination of KG, Ray, and Green on 1 year deals, to maintain future flexibility, so Danny is able to act when the next star becomes available.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2012, 03:51:48 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'll start:

KG - 9 mil (down from 22 mil)
Ray - 9 mil (down from 10 mil)
Jeff Green - 7 mil

Let Bass walk.

Re-sign Jermaine O'Neal to the vet mimimum as our starting center.  

Offer Pietrus the vet minimum

Fill the rest of the squad with vet minimum contracts (guys like Dooling and Pavlovic and Daniels)
  

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2012, 03:53:14 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Assuming guys like Howard are off the table, the only free agent I am strongly interested in is Spencer Hawes.

I would offer Hawes up to something in the range of 10-12 million per year.  I think he is just coming into his own now that he is growing into his body, and I think he will be a top 5 center in this league.

Then, I would use the rest to consider trades, but if nothing presents itself that made sense, I would try to bring back some combination of KG, Ray, and Green on 1 year deals, to maintain future flexibility, so Danny is able to act when the next star becomes available.

Assuming you blow 10 mil on Hawes...

You now have 15 mil to split amongst KG, Ray and Green.  Are you planning on giving them 5 mil each?  Do you believe they will take 5 mil each?  Letting Bass walk?

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2012, 04:00:02 PM »

Offline Chris

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Assuming guys like Howard are off the table, the only free agent I am strongly interested in is Spencer Hawes.

I would offer Hawes up to something in the range of 10-12 million per year.  I think he is just coming into his own now that he is growing into his body, and I think he will be a top 5 center in this league.

Then, I would use the rest to consider trades, but if nothing presents itself that made sense, I would try to bring back some combination of KG, Ray, and Green on 1 year deals, to maintain future flexibility, so Danny is able to act when the next star becomes available.

Assuming you blow 10 mil on Hawes...

You now have 15 mil to split amongst KG, Ray and Green.  Are you planning on giving them 5 mil each?  Do you believe they will take 5 mil each?  Letting Bass walk?

I had written this out before, so here is my whole scenario:



Lets say they renounce everyone.  So, essentially they have Rondo (11m), Pierce (16.8m), Bradley (1.6m), Johnson (1.2) million signed (I will also assume Bass opts out).

So, that's 30.6 million spoken for.  They would then have 2 first round picks.  Lets say one mid first rounder (1.4m cap hold), one late first rounder (1m cap hold).  That is 6 roster spots and $33 million spoken for.  They would need another 7 minimum cap holds (we will round it to .5m per cap hold), putting them at $36.5 million.  With a cap of $60 million, that gives them 23.5 million to work with to fill out the roster.

Lets say they paid a center $11.5 million (with 4.5% raises, that comes out to approximately a 4 year/$50 million deal).  So, you add that to the salary and you have 48m...subtract .5 million for the roster spot they opened up and they are at 47.5 million with 7 guys...so $12.5 million remaining.

Sign KG and Ray to deals of $6 million each (or substitute Green for one of them, if he wants to sign a 1 year prove it deal).  That leaves you with .5 remaining...plus the 2 minimum cap holds you gain back, so you have 1.5 million and 9 spots filled.  Obviously it is a huge leap to suggest Ray and KG would take those contracts.  But there is a possibility they will take a hometown discount to stay here...and there is a chance its more than they would get per year on the open market anyways, since most of the teams they would consider going to would be over the cap and would only have the MLE to offer.  And they might be fine going year to year at this point in their careers.

Now you can use $2 million to sign another player to get up to the cap (the $1.5 million, I mentioned before, plus another .5 million that is freed up because you are eliminating another roster cap hold).  So, that puts you right at the cap with 10 spots filled.

Use the "space exception" to sign another player for $2.5 million (maybe Pietrus?).  Then fill out the roster with minimum salaried players.

So, in this scenario, you are able to pay decent market value for a top 10 center on the free agent market.  You would likely have to let Green walk, unless he really wants to come back and prove himself on the 2.5m exception...although I think he would get a better offer elsewhere.  You pay KG and Ray a reasonable salary given what they would make per year on the open market, but are still getting a bit of a bargain, spurred on by their desire to stay with the organization that has been loyal to them, and in the city they seem pretty happy in (at least Ray...I have no idea with KG).  And you are able to field a potentially better roster next year, with a second building block next to Rondo, while keeping max cap room for 2013 to try again to add the star they need.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2012, 04:04:03 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Assuming guys like Howard are off the table, the only free agent I am strongly interested in is Spencer Hawes.

I would offer Hawes up to something in the range of 10-12 million per year.  I think he is just coming into his own now that he is growing into his body, and I think he will be a top 5 center in this league.

Then, I would use the rest to consider trades, but if nothing presents itself that made sense, I would try to bring back some combination of KG, Ray, and Green on 1 year deals, to maintain future flexibility, so Danny is able to act when the next star becomes available.

Assuming you blow 10 mil on Hawes...

You now have 15 mil to split amongst KG, Ray and Green.  Are you planning on giving them 5 mil each?  Do you believe they will take 5 mil each?  Letting Bass walk?

I had written this out before, so here is my whole scenario:



Lets say they renounce everyone.  So, essentially they have Rondo (11m), Pierce (16.8m), Bradley (1.6m), Johnson (1.2) million signed (I will also assume Bass opts out).

So, that's 30.6 million spoken for.  They would then have 2 first round picks.  Lets say one mid first rounder (1.4m cap hold), one late first rounder (1m cap hold).  That is 6 roster spots and $33 million spoken for.  They would need another 7 minimum cap holds (we will round it to .5m per cap hold), putting them at $36.5 million.  With a cap of $60 million, that gives them 23.5 million to work with to fill out the roster.

Lets say they paid a center $11.5 million (with 4.5% raises, that comes out to approximately a 4 year/$50 million deal).  So, you add that to the salary and you have 48m...subtract .5 million for the roster spot they opened up and they are at 47.5 million with 7 guys...so $12.5 million remaining.

Sign KG and Ray to deals of $6 million each (or substitute Green for one of them, if he wants to sign a 1 year prove it deal).  That leaves you with .5 remaining...plus the 2 minimum cap holds you gain back, so you have 1.5 million and 9 spots filled.  Obviously it is a huge leap to suggest Ray and KG would take those contracts.  But there is a possibility they will take a hometown discount to stay here...and there is a chance its more than they would get per year on the open market anyways, since most of the teams they would consider going to would be over the cap and would only have the MLE to offer.  And they might be fine going year to year at this point in their careers.

Now you can use $2 million to sign another player to get up to the cap (the $1.5 million, I mentioned before, plus another .5 million that is freed up because you are eliminating another roster cap hold).  So, that puts you right at the cap with 10 spots filled.

Use the "space exception" to sign another player for $2.5 million (maybe Pietrus?).  Then fill out the roster with minimum salaried players.

So, in this scenario, you are able to pay decent market value for a top 10 center on the free agent market.  You would likely have to let Green walk, unless he really wants to come back and prove himself on the 2.5m exception...although I think he would get a better offer elsewhere.  You pay KG and Ray a reasonable salary given what they would make per year on the open market, but are still getting a bit of a bargain, spurred on by their desire to stay with the organization that has been loyal to them, and in the city they seem pretty happy in (at least Ray...I have no idea with KG).  And you are able to field a potentially better roster next year, with a second building block next to Rondo, while keeping max cap room for 2013 to try again to add the star they need.

Long winded, but basically what you're saying is...

11.5 mil for a center (a Chris Kaman for example)
6 mil for Ray (huge leap he'll take it)
6 mil for KG (huge leap he'll take it)

And you are letting Jeff Green and Bass walk. Filling out the rest of the roster with close to vet min contracts (Pietrus for example).


So essentially your plan is to keep our 7-9 team intact... age the big 3 another year... and replace Bass with Chris Kaman.  Yes?

Follow-up question:  If your master plan is to replace Bass with Chris Kaman, would you consider trading Bass, Jermaine O'Neal and Wilcox for Kaman RIGHT NOW?... if not... why not?

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2012, 04:04:21 PM »

Offline Who

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In terms of the Celtics free agents ...

I expect Garnett to retire. No interest in re-signing Ray Allen unless Boston is still competing for a title but I don't see how that is possible if Dwight Howard doesn't arrive this summer. So no Ray either.

I am open to signing Jeff Green but I really don't give a [dang] one way or the other.

No interest in giving Bass a multi-year deal. I would let him leave. I would expect Pietrus to leave once the C's title shot is finished with. Go join a true contender. So no to both of them too.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2012, 04:06:25 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Yeah I don't think resigning KG/Ray is worth it unless we're still in a win now mode. That'd require signing a major impact free agent or pulling off a big trade.

I guess if they'd both like to play out the year on a bargain contract that the C's could trade midseason to a contender I coudl live with it. Better to move on an figure out our rotation for the future.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2012, 04:09:22 PM »

Offline Inside-Out

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We'd have cap holds to ensure we could fill out the roster to the min # of players, right?

I'll assume we keep Moore (cheap, decent) and probably Steimsma (cheap, $1M).

Shamsports shows us at about $31.250 without Bass next year, with 6 players.  Add $3M for two picks, plus $500K for a 2nd rounder that we'll sign, and that's 9 guys locked in for about $35M, leaving $23M with 4 roster spots to fill.  That's how I understand it, anyway (corrections welcome and appreciated).

So...if we set aside $15M for a max player, that leaves only $8M to divide between 3 players.

I would hope that Ray and KG stay, but they'd have to pretty much take near-minimum deals.  JGreen will probably take $3-5M (the MLE), leaving only $3-5M, perhaps to split between Ray and KG.

And that's for only 13 players.

If we're going to contend next year, we really need to sign a franchise guy with the cap space this summer.  DH or...well, nobody.  Save the space and money.

In that case, no Ray, KG, or any FA on more than a 1-year deal, most likely.  Stay below the cap and try to acquire assets by using cap space to facilitate trades.

So i guess my answer is:  either DH and as much of the band as possible, or save as much space as possible by letting KG and Ray go.  Perhaps JGreen gets a 1-year deal in that case.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2012, 04:17:30 PM »

Offline TheTruthFot18

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I'll start:

KG - 9 mil (down from 22 mil)
Ray - 9 mil (down from 10 mil)
Jeff Green - 7 mil

Let Bass walk.

Re-sign Jermaine O'Neal to the vet mimimum as our starting center.  

Offer Pietrus the vet minimum

Fill the rest of the squad with vet minimum contracts (guys like Dooling and Pavlovic and Daniels)
  

Thats this years roster but one year older and without Bass. I think Ray will come back for less as a 6th man. Maybe eric gordon and hawes>?
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Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2012, 04:22:23 PM »

Offline StartOrien

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I like Wilson Chandler a whole lot more than Jeff Green and other swing options.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2012, 04:23:39 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Playing the free-agency game would be a mistake. First, the free-agency class completely sucks. We're better off keeping our roster, and keep competing until a year we see a good FA crop. If we don't land Dwight Howard, I just don't see much out there for us. Plus, we'd still have Pierce in the books, might as well extend KG and Allen more, though I'd be weary of the price.

That said, while we keep using the roster, make a better effort to develop young talent so that they become tradable assets or simply contributors when our rebuilding comes.

In all, I think making unwise use of our cap space on what crappy talent is going to be out there next year is a mistake, unless it's for DH.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2012, 04:24:47 PM »

Offline StartOrien

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I've said it before and I'll say it again - I'd be outright shocked to see Kevin Garnett not retire this summer.

Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2012, 04:26:19 PM »

Offline action781

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Yeah I don't think resigning KG/Ray is worth it unless we're still in a win now mode. That'd require signing a major impact free agent or pulling off a big trade.

I guess if they'd both like to play out the year on a bargain contract that the C's could trade midseason to a contender I coudl live with it. Better to move on an figure out our rotation for the future.

I, like Who, expect KG to retire after this season (unless the celts make the NBA Finals, but even then still no guarantee he keeps playing).  If he does come back, I don't see how he gets a contract in the ballpark of $9 or $6 mil like I've been seeing people say.  I don't see him getting more than $5 mil as his game continues to decline unless we see some extended change in his performance on the court at some point this season.

On Ray... whether we are contending, semi-contending, or rebuilding, I don't think it would hurt to bring Ray back.  The front office still needs to put butts in the seats and Ray has a lot of fans here in Boston.  We are still going to have Rondo and Pierce so going to be semi-competitive.  If we can bring him back on a 2 year deal for $12 mil, I think we should give him that. 
Worst case scenario: it costs us a few (really, just a few) slots in the next two drafts.  A few young guys on the roster get less minutes and exposure than possible without Ray on the team.
Most realistic scenario:  he brings in revenue, provides some exciting games where he shoots lights out and wins games for us, provides veteran leadership for our younger players (and someone to keep Rondo in check), and is a class act.  Possibility:  we end up trading him to a contender for a good asset and both parties are happy.

I say bring Ray back for two years, $12 mil almost regardless.  If other players like Green, Bass, or other younger players we seek after can't be brought in, then I say bring KG back for no more than 1 yr, $4 mil (if he wants to come back).
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Re: Tell me how you'd split up our 25 mil in cap space
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2012, 04:32:33 PM »

Offline StartOrien

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There's probably a team out there who could use Jeff Green. I'm wondering about sign and trade opportunities.