Advanced stats say "Play Stiemsma more"

[dinguspie]

Stiemsma has been the 2nd most productive rookie in the NBA, according to WP48.  Also lighting it up: MIL's Jon Leurer and MIN's Rubio. 

Let's give the Steamer 25 or 30 minutes a game and let O'Neal ride the pine!

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/01/06/put-em-in-coach-theyre-ready-to-play/

[guava_wrench]

Stiemsma has been the 2nd most productive rookie in the NBA, according to WP48.  Also lighting it up: MIL's Jon Leurer and MIN's Rubio. 

Let's give the Steamer 25 or 30 minutes a game and let O'Neal ride the pine!

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/01/06/put-em-in-coach-theyre-ready-to-play/

A lot of minutes might come from Wilcox.

[ballin]

I trust wages of wins far more than any other advanced stat (especially +/- or PER).

However, the problem with wages of wins is that, while it can tell you who has been good, it can't tell you who will BE good in the future.

For example, the guys over there are currently freaking out about how good Spencer Hawes has been. And it's true he's been amazing (in just a handful of games). But there's no reason whatsoever to think that he won't experience a regression to the mean. The odds of him keeping up his current level of play are infinitesimal

So, has Stiemsma been really good? Yes. But how much of that has been beginner's luck? I guess the only way to tell would be to keep playing him.

[PosImpos]

I'm guessing this is the article you're to which you refer:

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/01/06/put-em-in-coach-theyre-ready-to-play/


It's a good read.

[Fafnir]

The problem with box score derived statistics is that it does not account for defense except for defensive rebounds and steals.

Stiemsma isn't punished when McGee posts him up 3 or 4 times for easy buckets, nor his punished when he requires help in the post and it allows an easy jumper for a team mate. Plus he's fouling so much that its tough to play him more than a backup C minutes. (though part of that is the annual rookie hazing from the refs)

I think those concerns are what are keeping him off the floor at the moment. If Wilcox/O'Neal don't improve with more time, Stiemsma will get more minutes himself.

[ballin]

I'm guessing this is the article you're to which you refer:

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/01/06/put-em-in-coach-theyre-ready-to-play/


It's a good read.

Yup. Which reminds me of another problem with the guys over at wages of wins: they REFUSE to account for the competition.

The sixers have been posting up big wins produced because they've been playing against scrubbish teams, period, end of story.

Yet for some reason the wages of wins guys have this near-religious belief that their system is always an accurate representation of a player or team's ability no matter what. I guarantee if you asked them to project Philly's wins for the rest of the season based on this stretch, they'd say "well, it's a small sample size" as opposed to the real reason: it's just a crappy sample against inferior competition.

edit: the poster above me is also right in the sense that wages of wins (or any box score-derived advances stat) fails to account for strong man-to-man defense. Sure, rebounding, blocks, and steals are part of defense, but it leads to a pretty big underestimation of guys who play stellar on-ball defense like Rondo (when he's motivated).

That said, I still think wages of wins is the best advanced stat, and is extremely reliable so long as you account for defense independently, and recognize when a player is having an abnormally good or bad season that he's unlikely to repeat (also, sample size).

[pearljammer10]

Wouldnt basic stats tell you that Stiemsma should be playing more minutes? I mean its pretty obvious to say that a guy who averaging like 9 block per 48 minutes should be playing more...

From a logical basketball stand point. Stiemsma is a rookie, who knows if he can even handle 20 to 30 minutes a game and who knows how productive he would be playing extended minutes all the time. Yes he has been great in the few minutes he has gotten, I would support him being rewarded for those minutes by still getting a few minutes here and there but I would also like to see what Wilcox can do in those extended minutes.