Well, what about the fans who are still coming to the CelticsBlog front page every day? Are they not hardcore fans? I'd say that any fan who is regularly visiting a basketball blog at this stage extend far, far beyond casual. I have a hard time saying that the opinion of 42 CelticsBlog forum members is more representative of hardcore Celtics fans than the opinion of 800 of them on the front page.
There are:
- casual fans, the sweet candy shell. These people might not know the difference between Daniel Stern and David Stern, and 50/50 sounds completely fair to them. Will probably not change the channel if the game is on.
- avid fans, the chocolate filling. Homepage is ESPN, follow the drama in general way. May have a fantasy team of some kind in some sport.
- hardcore fans, the caramel middle. Drive by the CB front page, for daily updates on wailing and gnashing of teeth re: the lockout, may post comments. Probably knows at least one player's FG% by heart, and has a favorite Larry Bird anecdote.
- hardest of the hardcore, the peanut in the center. Posts on forums, exerts own gravitational force. May be reading the 10th page of the Blame thread, and was about to reply to this post before I broke the fourth wall just now. Chance of not having an opinion on the lockout, is infinitely close to zero percent.
Disclaimer: I made all of that up.
My theory: I think people are going to interpret poll results in a way that is most reflective of their preferred opinion. 
Indeed.