CB DRAFT FINALS THREAD: Sixers Win!!!!!!!

[mgent]

OK MGent, but the only time a team has won without an all NBA Calibre big but with a Greta 2 guard is Michael Jordan. I am the biggest Dwade supporter on this blog and I don't think that's enough.

Neither Sheed nor Big Ben were All-NBA caliber.  Again, they won because of Rip and Billups with their perimeter passing and scoring, plus elite defense.

They did this in a finals against SHAQUILLE O'NEAL and KARL MALONE.  Hey look an all-NBA center doesn't mean automatic victory, even with Kobe Bryant >>>>>>> Kyle Lowry.

[wdleehi]

OK MGent, but the only time a team has won without an all NBA Calibre big but with a Greta 2 guard is Michael Jordan. I am the biggest Dwade supporter on this blog and I don't think that's enough.

Neither Sheed nor Big Ben were All-NBA caliber.  Again, they won because of Rip and Billups with their perimeter passing and scoring, plus elite defense.

They did this in a finals against SHAQUILLE O'NEAL and KARL MALONE.  Hey look an all-NBA center doesn't mean automatic victory, even with Kobe Bryant >>>>>>> Kyle Lowry.

Didn't all four of them make the all star the same year? 


They beat a front court that didn't fit well when the two stars were fighting. 


They were not the best front court, but that team hit the Lakers at just the right time. 

[mgent]

Rasheed Wallace playoff appearance:  13 points on 41% shooting

I'm overly confident that David West can exceed that.

[nickagneta]

My take on this series is that it all boils down to which superstar you believe can carry his team to a championship.

Wade is the second best player in the league and carried a team with a worst supporting cast than he has with this group in Philly to a championship in 06. He's an assassin in big moments, he's tough, he plays defense and a born leader.

Amare once had the ability to do it all and then the knee/leg injury happened and his attitude soured in Phoenix and his game change some. His rebounding numbers and rebounding percentages have dropped. His defensive rating, which was in the 101-104 area even though he played for Phoenix has jumped to the 108-109 area. I'm not going to look up the numbers but my guess is his PER against has done a similar leap over the last three years

Amare is  a tremendous offensive player but reluctant to pass, an indifferent defender at best, and a player that has lost the bulldoggedness one wants to see from a 6'11" guy when rebounding. He has never been a leader.

And he has to play David West, who, although he will give up points to Amare, who doesn't, will get his against Amare. Amare will do nothing to hinder the Philly offense because he doesn't have it in him to try to shut down West.

This to me is the key.

Bogut is a better center than Varejao but AV has had success against him. Slight advantage Portland

Amare will score but so will West. Slight advantage Portland.

Iguodala will handle Delfino and the rookie. Advantage Philly.

Wade will dominate Harden. Harden is probably best suited as a 6th man type. Him having to match up against Wade who brings it on both ends of the floor, is tremendous strong and quick and will get all the calls, makes this a huge advantage for Philly.

Hinrich and Lowry are a push. I really like both players but Hinrich is a plus defender and I want to see Lowry do what he's done another year before I start anointing him into the top 10 PGs discussion.

The benches are kinda equal but I have to go advantage Philly because of Barbosa's and Martin's playoff experience.

Lastly, if we are doing the hypothetical read into what the voting means thing, Portland just got out of a tremendously close series that they were lucky to win because Lebron choked on the big stage. Ask most of the people who voted for Portland last round and I am guessing that was their interpretation.

Wade won't choke and Portland won't be lucky a second time.


Philly in six maybe 5.

[Who]

I'm sorry, this thread is going so fast, did Portland say what type of rotation/matchups they were choosing to go with?

Their bench's minutes and roles have fluctuated a bit during each series. I was wondering how much (1) Derrick Williams plays and against whom (2) also Delfino (3) and the backup bigs?

[action781]

I guess I didn't mention this, but we'll start the series with Varejao on Amare and see how that works.  Bogut isn't going to have a bigger advantage on West than he is Varejao, and if your offense is continuously going to Bogut post-ups then that's good news for us.

I think that is a mistake.

There is a huge difference between the physical size of David West (6-8, 230lbs) and Anderson Varejao (6-11, 260lbs) and their respective defensive ability against a power based center like Andrew Bogut. Simply put, there is no way in hell that David West can cover Andrew Bogut.

That will turn Bogut into a 22-26ppg on a 60+% TS% level scorer.

Live with Amare scoring on David West. It's not the end of the world.

Actually, I never saw this post from mgent and I think my mind has now been made up.  I think coaching and strategy decisions give Portland the win in this series.  That move above is horrible.  Bogut would back down and/or shoot over West all day long.  That combined with theories like turn around jumpers are the way to attack 2-3 zones make me think that some coaching mistakes hurt this team in this series.  I'm going to go against Philly for the first time in the playoffs and take Portland (who I, ironically, voted to lose last round).

[action781]

Rasheed Wallace playoff appearance:  13 points on 41% shooting

I'm overly confident that David West can exceed that.

Very possibly (and I do mean possibly)

But I don't think there's any way that David West can come close to matching the defense that 'Sheed played that postseason. While his teammates have an impact on this also, he still posted a ridiculous DRtg of 91. 

[nickagneta]

Putting Varejao on Amare is a huge mistake. West's ability to score on Amare neutralizes Amare's effect to score on West.

But if you put West on Bogut, Portland will eat West alive on the defensive end and suddenly Bogut becomes a 70% shooter and 30 points per game guy. He's too big, strong and talented down low for West to cover him.

I might have to rethink this.

[Who]

I think D-Wade is going to go absolutely ballistic in this series.

Portland has nobody who can cover him on the perimeter.

Wade is going to slice through that first line of defense time and time again, draw the help and pick apart that defense with his scoring and passing ability.

[mgent]

Putting Varejao on Amare is a huge mistake. West's ability to score on Amare neutralizes Amare's effect to score on West.

But if you put West on Bogut, Portland will eat West alive on the defensive end and suddenly Bogut becomes a 70% shooter and 30 points per game guy. He's too big, strong and talented down low for West to cover him.

I might have to rethink this.

No he won't even come close to that.  If you think Bogut can outscore Wade you're dreaming.

If people are really rushing to vote Portland because I'd experiment with a defense that's ridiculous.  We'd see almost immediately how effective it would be, and would probably only be used in late games when Amare is getting the ball not Bogut.

[Kane3387]

Eh...  I wonder how much people are voting the GM here, rather than the team.  There's no doubt IP is a great guy, and hey, if folks want to give him the lifetime achievement award, I'll pat him on the back and say that he deserves it.  mgent has been a bit prickly in these debates, and I understand if people don't warm up to him the same way the do a beloved member of the mod staff and this year's commissioner.

However, there's simply no way in my mind that a team of Varejao/West/Iggy/Wade/Hinrich/Kmart/Barbosa loses to Bogut/Amare/Delfino/Harden/Lowry/Williams/Sessions.  Philly has a better defense, much more experience, much more depth, more talent, and a better superstar.

IP is a better arguer than mgent, I think, and some might think he's a nicer guy.  I admire him greatly, and am rooting for him, despite voting against him.  However, there's simply no way his team is better.  

That's completely unfair, and unfounded, and honestly, it seems to me anyways, that the only votes cast have been against my team, not for it.

"IP's a great guy and everything, but his team is really crappy and you shouldn't vote for him?"

Come on man, just say you don't think my team could win and leave it at that. I've worked too hard on this to be dismissed as a [dang] lifetime achievement award. That's a complete low-blow.  

It's not meant as a low blow, and I've paid homage to your team many times.  In fact, I voted it into the Finals.  However, I think Philly is far and away better.  

When I see people start to discount D. Wade, though, it's crazy to me.  It's like some are stretching for ways to criticize Philly and/or to elevate Portland.  I think we're all susceptible to subtle biases, and like Fafnir suggested earlier, mgent's fairly abrasive manner of arguing probably turned some people off.  The same can probably be said of my arguments, but I call things as I see them.  The way I see it in this series, there's nobody to check Wade, and until people quit sweeping that under the rug, I'm going to wonder what the heck's going on.

If people want to articulate why Wade is going to be ineffective in this series, I may change my mind.  However, Wade has been dominating in two NBA Finals, he's been dominating against the best defense in the NBA, he's been dominant against Harden, dominant against Lowry, and dominant against Delfino.  Amare and Bogut aren't going to matter, because the Blazers' relatively weak defense on Wade is going to result in those guys spending 10 - 15 minutes per night on the bench. 

There wasn't anyone to check Pierce. There wasn't anyone to check LBJ who dominated the ECF last year by destroying Deng and shutting down Rose at the end of games. I don't see how because Wade was great  in last year's finals, it makes him better then LBJ was in last year's ECF...

If Portland is good enough to beat the Kings then I think they are good enough to beat the Sixers with no defensive anchor and a 31 year old PF who is going up against the best athlete at his position. If Amare can kill Boozer (better then West) and KG (much better defender and similar offensively) then Why would he not dominate either of Varejao or West or K MArt?

Then throw in Bogut who must have made a great impact in the Kings series deterring Lebron because no one on the perimeter for Portland could keep him from going to the basket. LBJ is the best player in the NBA at attacking the basket. If Bogut was good enough to make a difference there then he will be against Wade as well imo.  

[Donoghus]

I think D-Wade is going to go absolutely ballistic in this series.

Portland has nobody who can cover him on the perimeter.

Wade is going to slice through that first line of defense time and time again, draw the help and pick apart that defense with his scoring and passing ability.

I do agree that Wade will get his but I also think that Portland will be able to compensate with its big men imposing down low. Its an offset to slight POR advantage when those things are netted.

To me, it then comes down to supporting cast and bench abilities.

[Rondo2287]

Putting Varejao on Amare is a huge mistake. West's ability to score on Amare neutralizes Amare's effect to score on West.

But if you put West on Bogut, Portland will eat West alive on the defensive end and suddenly Bogut becomes a 70% shooter and 30 points per game guy. He's too big, strong and talented down low for West to cover him.

I might have to rethink this.

No he won't even come close to that.  If you think Bogut can outscore Wade you're dreaming.

If people are really rushing to vote Portland because I'd experiment with a defense that's ridiculous.  We'd see almost immediately how effective it would be, and would probably only be used in late games when Amare is getting the ball not Bogut.

This does make sense because if Bogut gets the ball late in game you should just foul him and make him earn it at the line. 

[mgent]

Putting Varejao on Amare is a huge mistake. West's ability to score on Amare neutralizes Amare's effect to score on West.

I think that's true as well, but some people were saying that Amare over West wins the series for Portland.  I was just reminding them that I have Varejao and KMart, both guys who can slow down Amare.  Also depending on Boguts consistency in scoring up to this far in the playoffs, he might not even require Varejao on him.  Our first option if Amare heats up is to throw out KMart+Varejao, but if we need more scoring I'd stick with West + Varejao, especially when Robin Lopez is in the game (West can handle him easily)

I also said that knowing that the Blazers play Amare significant time at C, where again Varejao guarding him would not cause an issue.

[nickagneta]

Putting Varejao on Amare is a huge mistake. West's ability to score on Amare neutralizes Amare's effect to score on West.

But if you put West on Bogut, Portland will eat West alive on the defensive end and suddenly Bogut becomes a 70% shooter and 30 points per game guy. He's too big, strong and talented down low for West to cover him.

I might have to rethink this.

No he won't even come close to that.  If you think Bogut can outscore Wade you're dreaming.

If people are really rushing to vote Portland because I'd experiment with a defense that's ridiculous.  We'd see almost immediately how effective it would be, and would probably only be used in late games when Amare is getting the ball not Bogut.

In 2009-10 when Bogut was at his healthiest he scored 25 or more points 8 times that year and that was when he was being guarded by Joakim Noah, Erik Dampier, Kendrick Perkins, Andrea Bargnani, and Emeka Okafor. All centers.

What do you think he is going to do against a mediocre on defense, 6'8" PF that isn't incredibly long, athletic or has the best strength or jumping ability?

I would just retract the strategy and live with the West/Amare matchup. Amare can't limit West's offense and he might not score as much as Amare, but he will get his and average 16-20 PPG against Amare.