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Author Topic: Chad Ford's Tiers  (Read 11217 times)

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Chad Ford's Tiers
« on: June 16, 2011, 09:54:04 PM »

Offline mobilija

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Is there anyone that is an insider, that could share the article from Chad Ford regarding his tier system?
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2011, 10:21:37 AM »

Offline Chris

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We are not allowed to copy and paste entire articles from subscription sites...but here is a list of the actual tiers, without the commentary.

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)

Tier 3

Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)

Tier 4

Bismack Biyombo (8 to 20)
Alec Burks (10 to 17)
Jimmer Fredette (7 to 15)
Marcus Morris (9 to 15)
Chris Singleton (10 to 18)
Klay Thompson (9 to 17)
Tristan Thompson (6 to 16)

Tier 5

Davis Bertans (17 to 29)
Marshon Brooks (13 to 20)
Kenneth Faried (13 to 21)
Jordan Hamilton (11 to 19)
Tobias Harris (14 to 22)
Tyler Honeycutt (18 to 30)
Reggie Jackson (17 to 31)
Nikola Mirotic (20 to 30)
Darius Morris (21 to 35)
Markieff Morris (13 to 19)
Donatas Motiejunas (12 to 20)
Josh Selby (17 to 28)
Nikola Vucevic (14 to 21)

Tier 6 (All First-Round Bubble)

Bojan Bogdanovic
Jimmy Butler
Norris Cole
Justin Harper
Charles Jenkins
JaJuan Johnson
Malcolm Lee
Travis Leslie
Jon Leuer Shelvin Mack
Chandler Parsons
Kyle Singler
Iman Shumpert
Nolan Smith
Trey Thompkins
Jeremy Tyler
Jordan Williams
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2011, 10:25:29 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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Tier 3 is going to burn a lot of teams, I think.  I'd hate to be drafting in that range.  Absolute crapshoot.

Have to think at least 50% are going to wash out and underperform at the NBA level.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2011, 10:27:40 AM »

Offline Chris

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Quote from: Donoghus on June 17, 2011, 10:25:29 AM
Tier 3 is going to burn a lot of teams, I think.  I'd hate to be drafting in that range.  Absolute crapshoot.

Have to think at least 50% are going to wash out and underperform at the NBA level.

Yeah, I really think tier 5 is the place to be in this draft.  Just a lot of guys who might not be stars, but seem like they can be solid NBA players.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2011, 10:29:18 AM »

Offline FrDrake

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Ford talks about this in a recent podcast with the Sports Guy on the draft - it's a good listen.

The basic analysis is that this draft is terrible for teams drafting high who need top talent.  There are no stars or franchise players and arguably even Irving and D. Williams may never be all stars. Solid starters at best.

What the draft does probably have is a decent number of solid NBA rotation players (tiers 4 and 5).  Think players along the lines of BBD and Landry Fields.  This is good news for the Celtics since they will hopefully get a player who will contribute (down the road) which is the most anyone will probably get out of this draft.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2011, 10:48:01 AM »

Offline clover

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What I think is exceptional about this draft--other than the dearth of first-tier talent--is that a number of 4/5's in the 5th and 6th tiers could break out and develop into 3rd-tier players.  That is extraordinary.  The issues are picking right, not having someone pick right ahead of you, and then productively developing the player.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM »

Online Who

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I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2011, 11:04:42 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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Quote from: Who on June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM
I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.

Because the draft is that talent-poor. Guys like those two get bumped up because of lack of better options.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2011, 11:06:46 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Quote from: FrDrake on June 17, 2011, 10:29:18 AM
Ford talks about this in a recent podcast with the Sports Guy on the draft - it's a good listen.

The basic analysis is that this draft is terrible for teams drafting high who need top talent.  There are no stars or franchise players and arguably even Irving and D. Williams may never be all stars. Solid starters at best.

What the draft does probably have is a decent number of solid NBA rotation players (tiers 4 and 5).  Think players along the lines of BBD and Landry Fields.  This is good news for the Celtics since they will hopefully get a player who will contribute (down the road) which is the most anyone will probably get out of this draft.
Which podcast?
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2011, 11:19:22 AM »

Offline Chris

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Quote from: Who on June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM
I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.

Me neither.  I just don't see it with either of them.  I think Knight is basically just Lou Williams, and Walker's high end comp is someone like Ty Lawson or Jameer Nelson...and that is being generous.

Quote from: Donoghus on June 17, 2011, 11:04:42 AM

Because the draft is that talent-poor. Guys like those two get bumped up because of lack of better options.

In theory though, these "tiers" are supposed to be the same no matter who is in the draft (which is why there is no one in tier 2).

But I think you are right.  I think GMs have talked themselves into those guys because the lack of better options, and that has raised their expectations in the teams eyes.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2011, 12:50:44 PM »

Offline bballdog384

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Quote from: Who on June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM
I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.

I don't know too much about Knight, but Kemba is rated so high because of his motor.

Walker's talent level is probably late first round, and he is undersized for a combo guard (he's really not a PG - played SG at UCONN), but his will to win is higher than anyone else in this draft.

Most busts occur because the player drafted doesn't play hard enough to realize their full potential. By drafting Walker, you know that you are going to get someone who will put it all on the line for every single game.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2011, 01:02:47 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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This would seem to be the draft where lower expectations are the order of the day.  A smart GM would load up on the opportunity to grab guys that may be rotation players down the road without shooting themselves in the foot with overpaying them due to the rookie scale. 
For example, Kemba Walker will go higher than he normally would due to the dearth of top talent and thus get paid more than he should due to the rookie scale when he's really only a rotation-quality player, not a starting-caliber player which is what you'd hope for from a player drafted in his position.

I hope Danny can make hay in this draft by getting another pick that isn't too high in terms of salary-obligations but yet yields another player (in addition to #25) that can be a good rotation player for them in the future.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2011, 01:15:55 PM »

Offline action781

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Quote from: Chris on June 17, 2011, 11:19:22 AM
Quote from: Who on June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM
I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.

Me neither.  I just don't see it with either of them.  I think Knight is basically just Lou Williams, and Walker's high end comp is someone like Ty Lawson or Jameer Nelson...and that is being generous.

I think Kemba is going to surprise people with how "NBA ready" he is.  One thing I noticed about Kemba in college that surprised me was how he already has mastered the art of flopping and initiating contact.  I think kind of like Brandon Jennings did, Kemba will make an early impact in the league.  I don't know what kind of player he will become, but I would give him a more generous ceiling to someone like Stephon Marbury.  Kemba can score points.

Wow, the more I compare their college stats, where they are about to be drafted, their size, their position, their style of game... I think this might be a decent comparison.
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2011, 01:23:49 PM »

Offline Chris

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Quote from: action781 on June 17, 2011, 01:15:55 PM
Quote from: Chris on June 17, 2011, 11:19:22 AM
Quote from: Who on June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM
I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.

Me neither.  I just don't see it with either of them.  I think Knight is basically just Lou Williams, and Walker's high end comp is someone like Ty Lawson or Jameer Nelson...and that is being generous.

I think Kemba is going to surprise people with how "NBA ready" he is.  One thing I noticed about Kemba in college that surprised me was how he already has mastered the art of flopping and initiating contact.  I think kind of like Brandon Jennings did, Kemba will make an early impact in the league.  I don't know what kind of player he will become, but I would give him a more generous ceiling to someone like Stephon Marbury.  Kemba can score points.

Wow, the more I compare their college stats, where they are about to be drafted, their size, their position, their style of game... I think this might be a decent comparison.


Oh, I have no doubt he is NBA ready.  I think that is one of the biggest things he brings to the table.  He can step in immediately and be a productive NBA player. 

I think you are being beyond generous to consider him even in the same atmosphere as Marbury.

Walker has a ton of heart, but I just don't think his skill-set is good enough to be worth that kind of high pick. 
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Re: Chad Ford's Tiers
« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2011, 01:34:28 PM »

Offline action781

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Quote from: Chris on June 17, 2011, 01:23:49 PM
Quote from: action781 on June 17, 2011, 01:15:55 PM
Quote from: Chris on June 17, 2011, 11:19:22 AM
Quote from: Who on June 17, 2011, 10:57:05 AM
I don't understand why Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight are so high up in the tiers.

Me neither.  I just don't see it with either of them.  I think Knight is basically just Lou Williams, and Walker's high end comp is someone like Ty Lawson or Jameer Nelson...and that is being generous.

I think Kemba is going to surprise people with how "NBA ready" he is.  One thing I noticed about Kemba in college that surprised me was how he already has mastered the art of flopping and initiating contact.  I think kind of like Brandon Jennings did, Kemba will make an early impact in the league.  I don't know what kind of player he will become, but I would give him a more generous ceiling to someone like Stephon Marbury.  Kemba can score points.

Wow, the more I compare their college stats, where they are about to be drafted, their size, their position, their style of game... I think this might be a decent comparison.


Oh, I have no doubt he is NBA ready.  I think that is one of the biggest things he brings to the table.  He can step in immediately and be a productive NBA player. 

I think you are being beyond generous to consider him even in the same atmosphere as Marbury.

Walker has a ton of heart, but I just don't think his skill-set is good enough to be worth that kind of high pick. 

My initial assessment was that his ceiling could be a Marbury-like player.  The problem with making these kind of projections on amateur players and discussing their "skill-set" is that it's all so subjective and we have absolutely no idea how they will turn out.  As a matter of fact, even their skill-sets might not have as big of an impact on the player they'll become as other variables such as supporting cast, coach, etc. 

I don't think anybody would have put the ceilings on Gilbert Arenas or Manu Ginobili that ended up coming to fruition.  So giving Walker that ceiling of a Marbury I don't think is too generous.  But later in my post when I started to use the word comparison... maybe that was getting a little too far ahead of myself.  But really, who knows...
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