Why did the Celtics lose to the Heat? (merged)

[nickagneta]

. . . Perk got seriously worked in this series against Memphis and his defense on Gasol was poor. Gasol is an 11 PPG/ 7 RPG player that just went for 15.5/10 playing against Perk and company.

I'm not sure this type of analysis carries the day, though.

First, Gasol had a pretty mediocre regular season.  Last year, for instance, he averaged 14.6 points and 9.3 rebounds in 35.8 minutes per game.  15.5 and 10 in 40 minutes per game, then, is actually a dip in last season's prediction on a per-minute basis.

Even comparing this year's numbers, in April Gasol averaged 13.1 / 8.9 in 31.8 minutes per game.  Once again, on a per-minute basis that's more than the Thunder allowed Gasol.  Additionally, last season Gasol shot 58.1%, this April he shot 54.5%, and overall this season he shot 52.7%.  Against the Thunder, he shot below 50%.

I'm just not sure how holding somebody below their per-minute averages and below their shooting percentage is poor defense.  (For the record, the Spurs and Tim Duncan allowed Gasol to average 14.2 points and 12.3 rebounds on 53.3% shooting.  Is Duncan also a poor defender?)

It can be counter argued that out of Gasol's three years of playing time you chose his best year and that the other two years were extremely similar and that this years stats are probably more in line with how he plays than the year you chose or even the month you chose.

It can also be counter argued that the stats regarding FG% include a lot of games where Gasol played sub par defenders so by playing supposedly great defenders in Duncan and Perk he would naturally have lower FG%. Which is a good assumption given that in their head to head confrontations over the years Gasol had shot 45% versus Perk and 43% versus Duncan and yet is shooting over 51% against those to players in these playoffs.

So perhaps the stats and what my eyes told me were true, that both Duncan and Perkins had subpar defensive performances in these playoffs against a center that is normally, in 2 of the three years he has played, an 11/8 guy and plays worse than that when he played directly against Perkins and Duncan.

Oh, I guess I should also mention his rebounding percentage took a pretty decent jump up against these guys, an increase of over 2 percentage points or a climb of over 15%.

[Roy H.]

. . . Perk got seriously worked in this series against Memphis and his defense on Gasol was poor. Gasol is an 11 PPG/ 7 RPG player that just went for 15.5/10 playing against Perk and company.

I'm not sure this type of analysis carries the day, though.

First, Gasol had a pretty mediocre regular season.  Last year, for instance, he averaged 14.6 points and 9.3 rebounds in 35.8 minutes per game.  15.5 and 10 in 40 minutes per game, then, is actually a dip in last season's prediction on a per-minute basis.

Even comparing this year's numbers, in April Gasol averaged 13.1 / 8.9 in 31.8 minutes per game.  Once again, on a per-minute basis that's more than the Thunder allowed Gasol.  Additionally, last season Gasol shot 58.1%, this April he shot 54.5%, and overall this season he shot 52.7%.  Against the Thunder, he shot below 50%.

I'm just not sure how holding somebody below their per-minute averages and below their shooting percentage is poor defense.  (For the record, the Spurs and Tim Duncan allowed Gasol to average 14.2 points and 12.3 rebounds on 53.3% shooting.  Is Duncan also a poor defender?)

It can be counter argued that out of Gasol's three years of playing time you chose his best year and that the other two years were extremely similar and that this years stats are probably more in line with how he plays than the year you chose or even the month you chose.

It can also be counter argued that the stats regarding FG% include a lot of games where Gasol played sub par defenders so by playing supposedly great defenders in Duncan and Perk he would naturally have lower FG%. Which is a good assumption given that in their head to head confrontations over the years Gasol had shot 45% versus Perk and 43% versus Duncan and yet is shooting over 51% against those to players in these playoffs.

So perhaps the stats and what my eyes told me were true, that both Duncan and Perkins had subpar defensive performances in these playoffs against a center that is normally, in 2 of the three years he has played, an 11/8 guy and plays worse than that when he played directly against Perkins and Duncan.

Oh, I guess I should also mention his rebounding percentage took a pretty decent jump up against these guys, an increase of over 2 percentage points or a climb of over 15%.

I just don't see how you can ignore the fact that Gasol is playing roughly 25% more minutes in the playoffs than he did in the regular season.  More minutes + more shot attempts = more statistics, at a lower efficiency.  As for the rebounds, Gasol just pulled down a lot of the rebounds Randolph normally does; their combined playoff production (roughly 22 rebounds in 40 minutes) was exactly in line with their regular season (roughly 20 rebounds in 36 minutes).

Also, of course, a lot of Gasol's production is coming against guys other than Perk, but even looking at things simply, Gasol has been average at best against Perk compared to his norms.

[mctyson]

Injuries and bad locker room chemistry after the trade.

I think as more and more comes out about what happened in the locker room after the trade the more people will see that the players just hated the trade and felt they were let down by management.

Right.  Bad locker room chemistry resulted in Lebron James hitting fade-away 3's in Paul Pierce's face with the shot clock expiring.  And Rondo missing layups.  And KG not setting a screen.

Right.

[nickagneta]

Injuries and bad locker room chemistry after the trade.

I think as more and more comes out about what happened in the locker room after the trade the more people will see that the players just hated the trade and felt they were let down by management.

Right.  Bad locker room chemistry resulted in Lebron James hitting fade-away 3's in Paul Pierce's face with the shot clock expiring.  And Rondo missing layups.  And KG not setting a screen.

Right.

Why is it so hard to believe that a defeatist attitude and poorer chemistry in the locker room couldn't lead towards worse play.

Doc has admitted that Baby's head wasn't into the game because of his contract. Perhaps the trade made him think more selfishly and less about the team goals.

Rondo and Perk were best friends. He ckearly wasn't having a good series even before the injury. Maybe he wasn't trying as much because he knew the Cs couldn't win it all without a healthy center like his best friend.

Why was it the only inspired game KG played was when Rondo got hurt and seemed mentally out of it for stretches? Why wasn't Ray playing the type of defense we usually see from him in the playoffs? Poorer concentration and an attitude that they couldnt win it because they didnt have their starting center perhaps?

Anything is possible. Also I did mention injuries as well, maybe you missed that.