Further discussions on THE trade

[the_Bird]

I disagree entirely with the idea of judging the trade by how everything pans out.

The trade was bad the moment it happened, and the results aren't going to change that.

You're not going to judge something by the results?

While I think the results matter, there's also something to be said for good process/bad process.

-sw

Interesting. Can you please expand on this?

It's just like making investments, or playing poker.  You aren't ALWAYS going to get the outcome that you want, there are too many variables outside of your control. 

But, if your process is good, you'll be right more often that you're wrong.

I see what you're saying. I guess we need to discuss the process. I just feel like it was in his control. He had the best team with a great player returning.  Then he blew it up, and now we aren't as good.

Kiss away a title so we can save some money and have a possibly somewhat better team for a while longer.  

That's why I didn't like the trade, either.  It was a longshot bet (IMHO) that the Brothers O'Neil would be physically able to give the team everything that Perk gave them.  I didn't see the upgrade to having Jeff Green as Pierce's backup (versus Anthony Parker, or even Sasha) as being enough of an improvement to justify that risk. 

That's why I'm still p---ed, I think it was a bad gamble.  It's not like Shaq was healthy when the trade was made, he and JO were both laid up indefinitely at the time.

Grr.  Clearly, I'm not yet able to put this trade behind me.

[wiley]

I disagree entirely with the idea of judging the trade by how everything pans out.

The trade was bad the moment it happened, and the results aren't going to change that.

You're not going to judge something by the results?

While I think the results matter, there's also something to be said for good process/bad process.

-sw

Interesting. Can you please expand on this?

It's just like making investments, or playing poker.  You aren't ALWAYS going to get the outcome that you want, there are too many variables outside of your control. 

But, if your process is good, you'll be right more often that you're wrong.

I see what you're saying. I guess we need to discuss the process. I just feel like it was in his control. He had the best team with a great player returning.  Then he blew it up, and now we aren't as good.

Kiss away a title so we can save some money and have a possibly somewhat better team for a while longer.  

That's why I didn't like the trade, either.  It was a longshot bet (IMHO) that the Brothers O'Neil would be physically able to give the team everything that Perk gave them.  I didn't see the upgrade to having Jeff Green as Pierce's backup (versus Anthony Parker, or even Sasha) as being enough of an improvement to justify that risk. 

That's why I'm still p---ed, I think it was a bad gamble.  It's not like Shaq was healthy when the trade was made, he and JO were both laid up indefinitely at the time.

Grr.  Clearly, I'm not yet able to put this trade behind me.

Not arguing about the trade here (I supported it and think the results will be clear later, not now), but just wanted to say don't forget that we won 5 games in a row with a healthy Kristic while Perk was still out, and that Perk was out like another 6 to 7 games after that.....with no Perk, J.O. or Shaq (and no Kristic obviously), what would our record have been over that 12 or so game stretch?  And how many minutes would KG have had to play?

[GreenEnvy]

I disagree entirely with the idea of judging the trade by how everything pans out.

The trade was bad the moment it happened, and the results aren't going to change that.

You're not going to judge something by the results?

While I think the results matter, there's also something to be said for good process/bad process.

-sw

Interesting. Can you please expand on this?

It's just like making investments, or playing poker.  You aren't ALWAYS going to get the outcome that you want, there are too many variables outside of your control. 

But, if your process is good, you'll be right more often that you're wrong.

I see what you're saying. I guess we need to discuss the process. I just feel like it was in his control. He had the best team with a great player returning.  Then he blew it up, and now we aren't as good.

Kiss away a title so we can save some money and have a possibly somewhat better team for a while longer.  

That's why I didn't like the trade, either.  It was a longshot bet (IMHO) that the Brothers O'Neil would be physically able to give the team everything that Perk gave them.  I didn't see the upgrade to having Jeff Green as Pierce's backup (versus Anthony Parker, or even Sasha) as being enough of an improvement to justify that risk. 

That's why I'm still p---ed, I think it was a bad gamble.  It's not like Shaq was healthy when the trade was made, he and JO were both laid up indefinitely at the time.

Grr.  Clearly, I'm not yet able to put this trade behind me.

Wait, so best-case scenario: O'Neals healthy, win championship, get Dwight, Green becomes fringe all-star (a la Granger).

Still not a good trade?

Interesting.

As for comparing trades to investments and poker, aggressiveness is a style. Sometimes being aggressive pays off mightily, sometimes it blows up in your face. Regardless of how this season ends up, this trade can't be fairly judged for a few more seasons IMO (unless they let Green walk for nothing, then it just makes no sense).

[LB3533]

Even if Kristic and Green never plays a game after this season we still got a draft pick and that is a -plus- because we may have let Perk walk for nothing at the end of the season.

[Yogi]

   When Danny pulled the trigger he did not have a great team.  Marquis Daniels, the only small forward off the bench, an undersized one at that, was out for the season.  Von Wafer was the only back up for Ray Allen AND Paul Pierce.  We had 0 healthy centers.  The only one who was active was an injured rookie who would barely spoke the language and would never see time in the playoffs.  There were also questions surrounding the health of Delonte West.  Nate Robinson, far from being the spark off the bench, was going through one of the longest cold streak of his career and looked confused out there.  So Danny trades an injured center, and a guy that was killing our bench's offense for a healthy center STARTING FOR THE 4TH SEED IN THE WEST and the said team's third option as our seventh man.  He brought a guy that can give our bench much needed scoring, and give Paul and Ray much needed rest. 
   We are also much bigger as a team.  Nate, Quis, Luke and Perk were undersized for their positions.  Pavlovic, Green, Kristic, Murphy are all long for their positions.  Arroyo is also bigger than Nate so bigger guys can't shoot over him (Nate was faster, however.)  Oh somehow we also got a high first rounder out of all this. 
   Do I miss Perk's toughness, hell yeah.  Do I miss his screens, absolutely.  He was great at those things.  But JO is just as tough as Perkins and we have 3 centers who will learn how to set better screens.  We also have KG and Baby.  I love having guys come off the bench who are not undersized.  I love that our center position can score and cannot be cheated off on defense.  I love the bench is stacked with starters and scorers who are buying into our defense.  I love that Kristic is fast enough to fight for offensive boards and run back on D.  I love that we have a nice first-rounder which can be converted into a good piece either through trade or draft.  And I love that we can actually have a "fast break" that is actually fast, where Rondo could pass the ball in front of him for an alley-oop rather than wait for Ray,KG,Pierce or Marquis. 

[LB3533]

   When Danny pulled the trigger he did not have a great team.  Marquis Daniels, the only small forward off the bench, an undersized one at that, was out for the season.  Von Wafer was the only back up for Ray Allen AND Paul Pierce.  We had 0 healthy centers.  The only one who was active was an injured rookie who would barely spoke the language and would never see time in the playoffs.  There were also questions surrounding the health of Delonte West.  Nate Robinson, far from being the spark off the bench, was going through one of the longest cold streak of his career and looked confused out there.  So Danny trades an injured center, and a guy that was killing our bench's offense for a healthy center STARTING FOR THE 4TH SEED IN THE WEST and the said team's third option as our seventh man.  He brought a guy that can give our bench much needed scoring, and give Paul and Ray much needed rest. 
   We are also much bigger as a team.  Nate, Quis, Luke and Perk were undersized for their positions.  Pavlovic, Green, Kristic, Murphy are all long for their positions.  Arroyo is also bigger than Nate so bigger guys can't shoot over him (Nate was faster, however.)  Oh somehow we also got a high first rounder out of all this. 
   Do I miss Perk's toughness, hell yeah.  Do I miss his screens, absolutely.  He was great at those things.  But JO is just as tough as Perkins and we have 3 centers who will learn how to set better screens.  We also have KG and Baby.  I love having guys come off the bench who are not undersized.  I love that our center position can score and cannot be cheated off on defense.  I love the bench is stacked with starters and scorers who are buying into our defense.  I love that Kristic is fast enough to fight for offensive boards and run back on D.  I love that we have a nice first-rounder which can be converted into a good piece either through trade or draft.  And I love that we can actually have a "fast break" that is actually fast, where Rondo could pass the ball in front of him for an alley-oop rather than wait for Ray,KG,Pierce or Marquis. 

Agreed, wholeheartedly.

[Eja117]

In a few weeks I can't wait to hear people say "I was wrong and you were right" about this trade. It's just a matter of what happens and who says it. I am so looking forward to closure

[wahz]

I disagree entirely with the idea of judging the trade by how everything pans out.

The trade was bad the moment it happened, and the results aren't going to change that.

one of the best posts ever and a great example of subtle sarcasm. Kudo's and tp

[wahz]

Even if Kristic and Green never plays a game after this season we still got a draft pick and that is a -plus- because we may have let Perk walk for nothing at the end of the season.

this sort of post, when you at least try to think realistically like a gm has to aren't popular around here so congrats on your courage

[manbehindtheman]

bad trade...this season Perk was the man in the middle...not important to worry about next year until after this year...if we get eliminated it will definitely be the trade that made it happen.

[KobeShesNotConsenting!]

In a few weeks I can't wait to hear people say "I was wrong and you were right" about this trade. It's just a matter of what happens and who says it. I am so looking forward to closure

Me too

[Rondo2287]

In a few weeks I can't wait to hear people say "I was wrong and you were right" about this trade. It's just a matter of what happens and who says it. I am so looking forward to closure

So that means you can't wait to see the celtics lose, congrats

[LB3533]

Here's the thing about "right versus wrong" trade or "good versus bad" trade.....


If Danny had a super great deal on the table and DID NOT pull the trigger and trade Perk...his reasoning was:

"I couldn't trade one of my family members even though we had a super great deal and it would have put us over the top this year and in the future".

A lot of us fans would agree with Danny, it was the right move to stand pat.

Because all these years you build up relationships and watch players grow up etc.

It's all relative.

[housecall]

When i weighed the pluses and minuses of the trade it came up in Danny's favor.First,there is/was zero gaurantee we would win with a healthy Perkins playing in the playoffs,second,there is/was zero gaurantee Perk would hold up physically throughout the playoffs(verdict is still out on that one)and third,he was walking at the end of the season so why give any eastern conference teams a chance to pick him up(Heat).
The bench needed an overhaul as much as we needed a center.Without a fairly decent bench it probably wouldn't matter even with a healthy Perk.Jeff Green is a starter-type coming off the bench much like Lamar Odom(Lakers)giving him the advantage aganist most teams in the east.


Sometimes the bench importance is overlooked and underrated when it comes to playoff basketball.

[csfansince60s]

It's just like making investments, or playing poker.  You aren't ALWAYS going to get the outcome that you want, there are too many variables outside of your control.  If there are only two cards that can beat you, going all-in is the right decision even if one of those two cards comes up at the end. 

You've got to play the odds.  If your process is good, you'll be right more often that you're wrong.
[/quote]


TP.In my opinion you should judge a trade based on the information that the GM (and you, if you're judging) have at the time of the trade.

So many posters are "waiting to see if we win a championship or not" to gauge the prudence and wisdom of this trade. I guess that is one way to look at it, but I don't agree. Things are rarely this black and white. There are far too many variables to simplify things in such a way.

Trades are usually always gambles to some degree, some more than others. But like anyone who has ever gambled for a living, all the GM can do is weigh all the positives and negatives both short term and long term which he knows at that time and either pull the trigger or put the gun down.

Let's look at one of the most famous or infamous trades in Cs history to illustrate my theory that trades cannot/should not be judged only by results.

In '84 Red traded Finals hero Gerald Henderson to the Sonics. Was this a "good" trade?

First let's look at the results as they occurred and shifted over a time-line.

Based on the "results", many thought that the trade stunk at first because we gave up a very serviceable guard for a complete unknown, and probably not a great draft pick because the Sonics were not that bad in '84.

The Sonics go in the crapper 2 seasons later, and as the season wore on, and they got worse and worse, the "results" of the trade looked better and better, culminating in the #2 pick in the whole draft, and now the trade looked great. We pick Lenny Bias in the '86 draft, so based purely on results, on June 18th, this looked like the heist of the century (the Gasol trade was in the next century).

June 19th changed everything.Lenny blows his heart out with too much blow, and now, based on results, this was the suckiest trade in the history of basketball.

A trade may be prudent and wise and still fail. A trade may be reckless and terribly imprudent and succeed.

Perk may get injured and not play another game for OKC. What does that prove regarding whether this was a wise decision at the time of the trade? He may not have been injured ever again, if he remained in Boston or in OKC. What does that prove? Play out any scenario that you want for Green, Kristic and the first round pick, and again I ask, how does that have any bearing on whether it was a wise decision or not AT THE TIME of the TRADE???