Sorry, I was copying your text.
"no real expectations"
was your original definition, which means you don't know one way or the other what the outcome will be.
"no reasonable expectation" of happening
was one of your later definitions. No reasonable expectation of happening means it's more likely to not happen than to happen. If an event has two possible outcomes and there's no reasonable expectation that one of those outcomes will occur it doesn't seem like a crapshoot.
I don't agree with your assessments. In fact, I would actually say having no real expectations is even more risky a gamble than having no reasonable expectations.
Ok, I'll try this again. Say you draft Delonte in the first round and Doc's daughter in the second round. You don't know know at all whether Delonte will ever be a player but you have no reasonable expectation that Doc's daughter will ever be able to contribute to the Celts. You can say (correctly) that Delonte is the bigger risk since you *know* Doc's daughter will fail. However, Delonte's is the only one that would fit the definition of a crapshoot (remember, it means unpredictable).
Do you see how no real expectation of what will happen and no reasonable expectation that something will happen are different?
actually I would say that Doc's daughter has no real expectation of being a player, that is to say her chances lie in the land of the unreal or not real...
As for Delonte, you do believe to some degree whether or not he'll be a player...it's called scouting. it's why you draft him where you do...
risk is how far away you are from the outcome you want....
Exciting, but the question was whether you saw how the two cases were different. I was making them extreme on purpose.
and like I said previously if anything "no real expectaitons" was less likely to give you the outcome you want than "no reasonable expectation"...that is to say it lives more in the "highly unlikely" neighborhood range for which I was utilizing crapshoot and the definition which you considered reasonable.
I mean your example demonstrates that "no real expectations" is "highly unlikely"
unless, of course, you know Doc's daughter has the Like Mike shoes...
Look at it this way. "No real expectations" means that you don't know what's going to happen. If you expect something to pass you have expectations. If you expect something to fail you have expectations. If something's "highly unlikely" you have, again, expectations about the outcome so "no real expectations" doesn't really fit.
Apparently when you said "no real expectations" you meant "highly unlikely". While the word crapshoot means an unpredictable outcome and highly unlikely is a *predictable* outcome, your wording (no real expectations) accidentally matched the correct meaning of the word.
you identified "crapshoot" as something with a likelihood less that 50/50. that is giving it a level of predictability.
having "no real expectations" that you will get the outcome you want decidedly puts it in the "highly unlikely" range.....that is not the same as saying something is unpredictable.
as your own example demonstrates. Doc's daughter has no real expectation of competing in the NBA...It's not unpredictable. It's highly unlikely.
plus, you repeatedly indicated that you were not likely to get another MVP caliber QB if you traded Brady...you weren't saying it was unpredictable. you were saying it was unlikely to work out.
