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Hollinger Humor
« on: December 16, 2010, 10:59:36 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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Miami beating Cleveland by 6 points is enough for them to pass Boston on his rankings because they only beat the Knicks by 2. 



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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2010, 11:02:00 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2010, 11:04:07 AM »

Offline pearljammer10

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Yup, still hate this guy.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2010, 11:06:03 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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Quote from: pearljammer10 on December 16, 2010, 11:04:07 AM
Yup, still hate this guy.


Really?  You don't enjoy his daily humor?




Not even the Onion can put out a funnier power ranking.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2010, 11:08:25 AM »

Online Roy H.

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I'm not nearly the Stats Head that Hollinger is, but these most recent numbers suggest that the formula needs some serious tweaking.

Boston has lost four fewer games, and has beat Miami twice.

Boston has played a tougher schedule.

Boston has played more road games, and fewer home games.

Boston and Miami have almost identical margins of victories.  The separation (0.21 points) is easily accounted for by garbage time.

Both teams are 10-0 in their last 10 games, but Boston has played a tougher schedule.

How can somebody as tied to stats as much as Hollinger look at those numbers, and say "yeah, Miami is better"?  Ultimately it doesn't matter, but you'd think that he'd want to tweak his formula so that it could pass the smell test.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2010, 11:09:11 AM »

Offline CelticsWhat35

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I agree that his ranking system is completely stupid and meaningless, but since he puts so much weight on the last 10 games, I think the jump has more to do with their last loss to Dallas being 11 games ago than it does with the most recent game.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2010, 11:09:51 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Actually the win over Cleveland/New York by 6 and 2 respectively had nothing to do with it.

Instead the formula weights the last ten games more heavily than the rest of the season.

C's 11 games ago blew out the Hawks on the road
Heat 11 games ago lost to the Mavericks on the road

So the Heat had a weighted loss fall off and the C's had a weighted road blow out fall off.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2010, 11:11:16 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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EDIT:  Ah, Faf and CelticsWhat have the answer


Odd, Hollinger's formula is supposed to adjust by 3.5 points for road teams, so a 6 pt win at home should almost be identical to a 2 pt win on the road.  Given that our win was against a higher ranked team I'm not sure how this would let them leapfrog us.  It looks like Miami's higher margin of victory over the last 10 is what's driving the ranking, but it's a bit of a headscratcher.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2010, 11:11:34 AM »

Offline pearljammer10

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Quote from: wdleehi on December 16, 2010, 11:06:03 AM
Quote from: pearljammer10 on December 16, 2010, 11:04:07 AM
Yup, still hate this guy.


Really?  You don't enjoy his daily humor?




Not even the Onion can put out a funnier power ranking.

Haha. You make a good point there.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2010, 11:12:45 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:08:25 AM
How can somebody as tied to stats as much as Hollinger look at those numbers, and say "yeah, Miami is better"?  Ultimately it doesn't matter, but you'd think that he'd want to tweak his formula so that it could pass the smell test.
The rankings are 110.441 for the Heat and 110.371 for the Celtics, I don't think that .07 of a point in his rating system says that there is much separation between the two teams.

If you look at his projections they are essentially identical for the two teams, both are projected to win the title 30% of the time.

Given both teams are on huge winning streaks, with nearly identical point differential it makes sense they're rating extremely closely.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2010, 11:16:19 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Quote from: Fafnir on December 16, 2010, 11:12:45 AM
Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:08:25 AM
How can somebody as tied to stats as much as Hollinger look at those numbers, and say "yeah, Miami is better"?  Ultimately it doesn't matter, but you'd think that he'd want to tweak his formula so that it could pass the smell test.
The rankings are 110.441 for the Heat and 110.371, I don't think that .06 of a point in his rating system says that there is much separation between the two teams.

If you look at his projections they are essentially identical for the two teams, both are projected to win the title 30% of the time.

Regardless, Miami is ranked higher, despite Boston losing four fewer games, beating Miami twice head to head, having played a tougher schedule (and a tougher schedule in the last ten), having played fewer home games and more road games, and having an almost identical margin of victory.

You really think, based on all of the above, that Miami should be ahead, or even tied with, Boston?  That seems like a silly conclusion, leading me to believe that it's a silly formula that needs to be tweaked.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2010, 11:18:34 AM »

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Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:16:19 AM
Quote from: Fafnir on December 16, 2010, 11:12:45 AM
Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:08:25 AM
How can somebody as tied to stats as much as Hollinger look at those numbers, and say "yeah, Miami is better"?  Ultimately it doesn't matter, but you'd think that he'd want to tweak his formula so that it could pass the smell test.
The rankings are 110.441 for the Heat and 110.371, I don't think that .06 of a point in his rating system says that there is much separation between the two teams.

If you look at his projections they are essentially identical for the two teams, both are projected to win the title 30% of the time.

Regardless, Miami is ranked higher, despite Boston losing four fewer games, beating Miami twice head to head, having played a tougher schedule (and a tougher schedule in the last ten), having played fewer home games and more road games, and having an almost identical margin of victory.

You really think, based on all of the above, that Miami should be ahead, or even tied with, Boston?  That seems like a silly conclusion, leading me to believe that it's a silly formula that needs to be tweaked.
I agree - it's the basic weakness of the formula that's at work.

His use of simple W-L record in determining SOS is laughable.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2010, 11:24:53 AM »

Offline Greenbean

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Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:16:19 AM
Quote from: Fafnir on December 16, 2010, 11:12:45 AM
Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:08:25 AM
How can somebody as tied to stats as much as Hollinger look at those numbers, and say "yeah, Miami is better"?  Ultimately it doesn't matter, but you'd think that he'd want to tweak his formula so that it could pass the smell test.
The rankings are 110.441 for the Heat and 110.371, I don't think that .06 of a point in his rating system says that there is much separation between the two teams.

If you look at his projections they are essentially identical for the two teams, both are projected to win the title 30% of the time.

Regardless, Miami is ranked higher, despite Boston losing four fewer games, beating Miami twice head to head, having played a tougher schedule (and a tougher schedule in the last ten), having played fewer home games and more road games, and having an almost identical margin of victory.

You really think, based on all of the above, that Miami should be ahead, or even tied with, Boston?  That seems like a silly conclusion, leading me to believe that it's a silly formula that needs to be tweaked.

I agree with you Roy. That is the preface.

I just think that Hollinger's formula tries to capture who is playing the best at the moment.

Later in the season I think he weighs last 25% instead of (addition to?) last 10 games.

Neither team has lost a game in 10 contests and the Heat have a more impressive margin in those games. Their overall margin is similar so Mia gets the nod.

I think it is flawed but right now the Heat and Celtics are playing the best basketball in the NBA. Hollinger has it close. I think the Celtics are the better team and certainly match up well with Mia, but the Heat have been impressive of late.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2010, 11:28:16 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:16:19 AM
Quote from: Fafnir on December 16, 2010, 11:12:45 AM
Quote from: Roy H. on December 16, 2010, 11:08:25 AM
How can somebody as tied to stats as much as Hollinger look at those numbers, and say "yeah, Miami is better"?  Ultimately it doesn't matter, but you'd think that he'd want to tweak his formula so that it could pass the smell test.
The rankings are 110.441 for the Heat and 110.371, I don't think that .06 of a point in his rating system says that there is much separation between the two teams.

If you look at his projections they are essentially identical for the two teams, both are projected to win the title 30% of the time.

Regardless, Miami is ranked higher, despite Boston losing four fewer games, beating Miami twice head to head, having played a tougher schedule (and a tougher schedule in the last ten), having played fewer home games and more road games, and having an almost identical margin of victory.

You really think, based on all of the above, that Miami should be ahead, or even tied with, Boston?  That seems like a silly conclusion, leading me to believe that it's a silly formula that needs to be tweaked.
How would you tweak it?

Basically his formula is supposed to be a point differential weighted for pace, strength of schedule, and an emphasis on recent play.

SRS has them pretty close: 8.92 Boston (1), 8.80 Miami (2)
Wayne Winston's regressions: 10.47 Boston (1), 7.89 Miami (2)

Basically by point differential the teams are pretty close, as all three measures are based on point differential. The worst way to approach statistics is forcing it to conform to conventional wisdom. If anything his own tweaks for recent play are the reason the Heat are better than the C's.

But if you don't have recent play getting a bigger weight people would whine about not moving up more when they win a bunch of games in a row.
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Re: Hollinger Humor
« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2010, 11:33:38 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Quote from: Greenbean on December 16, 2010, 11:24:53 AM
I just think that Hollinger's formula tries to capture who is playing the best at the moment.

This is partly true, but Hollinger's rankings also differ from most power rankings in that they're trying to look forward - to predict who's likely to be successful in the future, based on their profile so far.

3 weeks ago a lot of the same people criticizing the rankings now were doing the same because Miami was ranked higher than their W-L record would seem to support.  Now, it looks like that high ranking was accurate. 

And I agree with Faf - if a measure always says the same thing as conventional wisdom, what's the point in using it?  The counterintuitive results are the most useful with something like this.  Scrapping the formula every time it produces a seemingly unusual result is a terrible approach to this kind of issue.
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