Sox sign Crawford 7 years 142 mill

[Bahku]

Yankees have offered to go to a seventh year on Lee (ESPN) ... looks like they're prepared to do whatever they need to.

[Brendan]

Well at least JD will no longer hold the title of most overpaid on the team.  Crawford is good, but not that good.  I guess it's just a matter of being best avaiable at the time Since Wyrth and Tulo are getting overpaid as well.  This contract will look very bad by the 4th year if not sooner.

+1... risky to bank on a guy that is dependent on a high BA to be a major factor offensively - outside of Beltre the Sox seem to always lose that gamble. So I guess this means we get Crawford in Left, Ellsbury/Drew against righties and Cameron/Ellsbury against lefties?

Ellsbury
Pedroia
A-Gone
Youlk
Crawford
Ortiz
Drew/Cameron
Salty/Tek
Scutoro/Lowrie

[Roy H.]

Sure we overpaid, but the Sox have the luxury of doing so.  So long as they pick and choose their spots to splurge, they'll be fine.  I guess there's a very minor risk that the CBA could change in the future, but I don't see baseball implementing a hard cap any time soon, so I don't think there's a lot to worry about.

We strengthened our team, and prevented Crawford from signing with a competitor (whether that be the Angels, Yankees, or Rays).  To me, that's an A+, regardless of whether we're playing $2 - $5 million too much in abstract, imaginary "value".

[KCattheStripe]

Crawforrd's nickname is " The Perfect Storm". He should change it to . " Too Soon" now that he's in Boston.

[Fafnir]

Sure we overpaid, but the Sox have the luxury of doing so.  So long as they pick and choose their spots to splurge, they'll be fine.  I guess there's a very minor risk that the CBA could change in the future, but I don't see baseball implementing a hard cap any time soon, so I don't think there's a lot to worry about.

We strengthened our team, and prevented Crawford from signing with a competitor (whether that be the Angels, Yankees, or Rays).  To me, that's an A+, regardless of whether we're playing $2 - $5 million too much in abstract, imaginary "value".

Better to pay a position player through the latter 4 years of his prime than a pitcher who's 32+...

[Rondo2287]

Sure we overpaid, but the Sox have the luxury of doing so.  So long as they pick and choose their spots to splurge, they'll be fine.  I guess there's a very minor risk that the CBA could change in the future, but I don't see baseball implementing a hard cap any time soon, so I don't think there's a lot to worry about.

We strengthened our team, and prevented Crawford from signing with a competitor (whether that be the Angels, Yankees, or Rays).  To me, that's an A+, regardless of whether we're playing $2 - $5 million too much in abstract, imaginary "value".

Better to pay a position player through the latter 4 years of his prime than a pitcher who's 32+...

Agreed.  Also the point was brought up that a reliever like Scott Downs is now more in play since we won't be giving up our first round pick for him.

[footey]

I keep hoping that we trade Josh Beckett, Dice-K, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jonathon Pabelbon to Seattle for Felix Hernandez and then we sign Cliff Lee as a Free Agent.

I like Felix, Cliff, Jon Lestah, Lackey, and Buckholz as our five starters. Daniel Bard can be our closer.

Plus we added Adrian Gonzolas and Crawford to our line up.

I would take this more seriously if you did not include Lackey in the remaining rotation!

[Greenbean]

Well at least JD will no longer hold the title of most overpaid on the team.  Crawford is good, but not that good.  I guess it's just a matter of being best avaiable at the time Since Wyrth and Tulo are getting overpaid as well.  This contract will look very bad by the 4th year if not sooner.

+1... risky to bank on a guy that is dependent on a high BA to be a major factor offensively - outside of Beltre the Sox seem to always lose that gamble. So I guess this means we get Crawford in Left, Ellsbury/Drew against righties and Cameron/Ellsbury against lefties?

Ellsbury
Pedroia
A-Gone
Youlk
Crawford
Ortiz
Drew/Cameron
Salty/Tek
Scutoro/Lowrie

What is the gamble?

He has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball since 2004. He has hit over .300 in 5 out of the last 6 seasons.

He doesnt rely on average either. He has extra base pop. not alot of homers but double digit triples in 5 of the last 7 years.

Oh yeah he steals 50 bags a year too. He is not Beltre. He is Carl Crawford and I feel comportable counting on him for a .300 15 hr 80 rbi 50 steal 100 run year with gold glove defense in left field.

They overpaid but the return is much more certain than Jayson Werth.

Yes he does rely on speed. So in 5 years those trples will be doubles and maybe he steals 20 bags a year. The point is they are getting 4-5 years of this guy in his prime and he has proven to be a very consistent offensive and defensive contributor.

[greenpride32]

I disagree that Crawford has 4-5 years of "prime" years left.  I would say 1-2 max.  Crawford type players decline quickly when they hit 30 and I believe he's 29.  He got paid like he's a perennial MVP candidate and he's not.  He's not even a consistent all star player (3 time AS in his career).

[nickagneta]

Let's not forget that next years free agent pool kind of sucks and that the Sox are getting Adrian Gonzalez for just a bit over $6 million this year. This year Beltre, Varitez, Ortiz, Lowell and Martinez came off the books for a savings of $44.5 million. Then next year Drew, Papelbon, and Cameron come of the books for a savings of another $30-35 million depending on what Pap settles for before arbitration.

So you overpay a bit for a player that has been consistent and healthy and productive and is in his prime. So what?! Starting next year the nucleus of this team is going to be Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Josh Beckett and Jacoby Ellsbury. Nine players and only one over 30(Youk is 31). Then add in the talent coming up and the vets that are here and the Sox appear to be better set as a contender over the next several years for spending big NOW, rather than waiting until later.

Bring in a bunch of bullpen guys and try to eventually get a legit catcher and this team is looking like a WS winner sometime real soon again.

[Fan from VT]

-if you buy into WAR, he was 6.9 last year...9th among all position players. he has much hidden value on the bases and defensively.

-his final season will be when he is 35. thats not terrible for a hard working athletic player.

-he was available, and drew/cameron expire this year.

[Brendan]

Well at least JD will no longer hold the title of most overpaid on the team.  Crawford is good, but not that good.  I guess it's just a matter of being best avaiable at the time Since Wyrth and Tulo are getting overpaid as well.  This contract will look very bad by the 4th year if not sooner.

+1... risky to bank on a guy that is dependent on a high BA to be a major factor offensively - outside of Beltre the Sox seem to always lose that gamble. So I guess this means we get Crawford in Left, Ellsbury/Drew against righties and Cameron/Ellsbury against lefties?

Ellsbury
Pedroia
A-Gone
Youlk
Crawford
Ortiz
Drew/Cameron
Salty/Tek
Scutoro/Lowrie

What is the gamble?

He has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball since 2004. He has hit over .300 in 5 out of the last 6 seasons.

He doesnt rely on average either. He has extra base pop. not alot of homers but double digit triples in 5 of the last 7 years.

Oh yeah he steals 50 bags a year too. He is not Beltre. He is Carl Crawford and I feel comportable counting on him for a .300 15 hr 80 rbi 50 steal 100 run year with gold glove defense in left field.

They overpaid but the return is much more certain than Jayson Werth.

Yes he does rely on speed. So in 5 years those trples will be doubles and maybe he steals 20 bags a year. The point is they are getting 4-5 years of this guy in his prime and he has proven to be a very consistent offensive and defensive contributor.

I don't follow baseball like I used to - but the analysis back then was that guys that rely on speed and batting average decline faster and are more likely to slumps, because BA has a lot of volatility. When you account for his speed - he really doesn't have that much power (turning a double into a tripple, or a single into a double, or an out into a single is a function of speed out of the box and bases, not of batting skill.) I think he's a huge risk to have a stinker year at some point and/or decline quickly.

For comparison Youkilis gets ~100 points on top of his BA (308) to his OBP (404)  - I'm using averages over the last three years. He also gets 252 points on his slugging (562) over BA. This means he has both patience and power (home run and doubles).

I'm not saying Crawford won't help (he will) or cant sustain this (maybe he will) - I just think those kind of players are a lot riskier.

The other factors (they can sign him and stay under the tax (maybe) and they have expirings this year and next to afford is all well and good - and the marginal comparison to Werth is very telling. I'm a big believer in defensive value as well, but half his games will be played in a place where that impact is muted. Look at Drew - he maintains nearly identical OBP/SLG components even with a much lower BA. BA is just not that important to offensive contribution independent of OBP and SLG.

[guava_wrench]

$ 142 million to hit balls 3-5 AB a game. What a life.

Don't forget he also has to stand around in the outfield!

In fairness, the owners make loads of money and all they do is watch games for free.

[Cman]

$ 142 million to hit balls 3-5 AB a game. What a life.

Don't forget he also has to stand around in the outfield!

In fairness, the owners make loads of money and all they do is watch games for free.

And, in fairness, the players have to show up for practice and do offseason training.  Unless you're Albert Haynesworth, that is.

[Vermont Green]

I am again shocked by what the Sox are willing to pay.  At least to get Crawford, they didn't have to trade top prospects and over-pay.  I can't believe we are out spending the Yankees this year.

Since I have no idea what the Sox can "afford" I have no idea if this is a bad deal or not.  I do know that they are going to be stacked next year.

Not to be greedy but now I would like to see them trade for Greinke.  I think they could do it (no-trade clauses nothwithstanding) for Dice-K+$$$+prospects.  The Royals could then flip Dice-K (with the Sox paying say half his salary) to another team for even more prospects or cheap players.

Go Red $ox!