CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Eastern Conference

[action781]

Here is where I am down on your team: Kobe on Rip, Kobe out plays him at every part of the game. Rip is even coming off of a really bad shooting year, where he was injured, and I'm not sure he'll ever look like he did in 2006 or so again.

Even then, I expect Rip to get quality passes that lead to open looks from Kidd, and the same benefits from Nowitzki. There is nothing I've seen from Kobe that convinces me that Rip can't get an efficent 12-14 ppg off of screens in nearly every game.

Tyrus Thomas cannot and will not get that many points on Dirk. Won't even come close.

Really?  Tyrus Thomas played once against Dallas last season.

http://www.nba.com/games/20100301/DALCHA/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore

Dirk: 27 points, 13 rebounds,  12/23 shooting, 42 minutes
Ty Thomas: 16 points, 12 rebounds, 7/16 shooting, 29 minutes

Cannot and will not?  In a 7 game series?  Can and has.  In one out of one games in 2010.

p.s. Give Maxiell the other 19 minutes and he's gonna bully Milwaukee for 6 more points and 5 more boards.  That's my weakest position too.

Let's look back to 2009's matchups:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=An9.ziwhHtQck2b_gK0ajBhWPaB4?gid=2008111304

Dirk:  12 and 6
Ty Thomas:  8 and 8 in fewer minutes

A complete wash!!  In my worst matchup.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=ArFeJMQNlfo_HGz4j3.UJARWPaB4?gid=2009020706

Dirk:  44 and 9 on 16/34 shooting (under 50%)
Ty Thomas:  23 and 12 on 8/14 shooting

Did Dirk crush him?  Some say yes.  But Thomas outrebounded him and his scoring 21 less points was in 20 less possessions.  That should be noted.

[action781]

EDIT: But I wouldn't give those 19 mins to Maxiell, at least not on Dirk. He won't stop Dirk from owning the midrange. Can't bother his shot.

Dirk plays 37 mpg normally.  I'll need 30 mpg out of Thomas this series.  So Maxiell will get 7 mpg on Dirk, rough him up a bit.  The remainder of his time he'll be bullying Wright.

If Dirk plays more, Thomas will likely eat more of his time so long as he's able to.  If he's not able to, another 3 min or so out of Maxiell won't kill us.

EDIT: The more I think about this, I'll try Maxiell to start.  If he doesn't work out after game 1, I will try Krstic.  He's taller, longer, and at least can provide something for me on the offensive end.  And don't forget the wild card!!  I could have Rasheed if he decides to return for a final playoff run!

[indeedproceed]

Okay, I'd really like to hear from Rondo about this before I vote. That's a very compelling case action. Well stated.

I'm still not a believer in Thomas as your starter, frankly I just don't think he's that good. But against Dirk..that's a pretty compelling case.

[Fafnir]

Head to head comparison doesn't tell you much when the sample size is a whooping 2 games each year.

[indeedproceed]

Head to head comparison doesn't tell you much when the sample size is a whooping 2 games each year.

Also true. Still Thomas was more effective than I thought he would be.

I'll bring up the 23 point outscoring effort.

Dirk and Thomas both played 40+ minutes, Dirk outscored him by 23 points

How is that less significant? Thomas was more effective than I thought he would be, but Dirk almost outscored him 2:1 there in equal time.

[Fafnir]

So Orlando and Atlanta are the last series that I need to decide on.

Any last cases from their GMs? Its going to be tight.

[action781]

Head to head comparison doesn't tell you much when the sample size is a whooping 2 games each year.

Also true. Still Thomas was more effective than I thought he would be.

I'll bring up the 23 point outscoring effort.

Dirk and Thomas both played 40+ minutes, Dirk outscored him by 23 points

How is that less significant? Thomas was more effective than I thought he would be, but Dirk almost outscored him 2:1 there in equal time.

That's 21 points.  On 20 more fga.

[Roy H.]

So Orlando and Atlanta are the last series that I need to decide on.

Any last cases from their GMs? Its going to be tight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQEagK7kS_E

[Fafnir]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=qmaz3


Its not close, its just not. Thomas is at best an average to below average PF. Dirk is one of the best PFs in the league.

Even those stats over rate Thomas, he gets a ton of defensive win shares because he played on a great defensive team. His own defense isn't amazing by any means.

[indeedproceed]

Also, look at these H2H's.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bryanko01&p2=hamilri01

Kobe outscores Rip by almost 10 points per contest. They haven't faced each other in 2 years, but I imagine Rip is the one that has lost more of a step than Kobe there.

[indeedproceed]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=qmaz3


Its not close, its just not. Thomas is at best an average to below average PF. Dirk is one of the best PFs in the league.

Even those stats over rate Thomas, he gets a ton of defensive win shares because he played on a great defensive team. His own defense isn't amazing by any means.

I tend to agree with this. Both those Bulls teams (under Skiles) and the Bobcats team (under Brown) were good defensive teams.

[action781]

Gasol vs. Gortat

Gortat is good, I do like him.  As a bench player.  Gasol is just a much better and more refined player.  We will go to him often.  Gortat has never had significant playing time.  The most considerable time would be in the '10 playoffs, when he played 15.1 mpg.  But then, he only averaged 3.0ppg!  He has never averaged over 4.0 ppg.  If you thought Kobe was an Indy advantage, and Dirk is a Bucks advantage, how about the 8-14 nightly point advantage that Indy could be getting at the C position??  I could see an occasional Gasol - 20, Gortat - 6 point lines at the end of some games.  As a matter of fact, in the only 4 games of the '10 playoffs where Gortat logged 20+ minutes, he scored 2, 6, 5, and 2 points!!

I don't think there will be anything close to a 14pt advantage slanting for Gasol. After a full year of starting where Gortat can really show what he's capable of offensively, I think he should merit a starting spot, and he'll take Gasol down a peg or two. I've come around on Gasol's playmaking abilities though. This is a pretty heavy matchup in favor of Gasol, I will concede that. How does that make your other matchups more favorable?

I just don't see why it wouldn't be an 8-14 point advantage for Gasol.  In way more limited touches in memphis than he will get in Indy, he averaged over 14ppg and over 9rpg.  He's easily going to push 16-20 ppg here with the additional touches.  You all have said it yourselves:  who else is going to take the shots???  And my team absolutlely does NOT turn the ball over much.  So there are shots to be taken and Gasol is going to see a significant increase in his fga which will increase his ppg.

Even in 20+ mpg, Gortat has never shown that he can score double digits or even grab double digit boards consistently.

I just don't see it.  Honestly.  I like Gortat, but he's an energy bench player.  Not somebody you can count on to start and come close to matching the production of a center who can score the basketball.

[action781]

Also, look at these H2H's.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bryanko01&p2=hamilri01

Kobe outscores Rip by almost 10 points per contest. They haven't faced each other in 2 years, but I imagine Rip is the one that has lost more of a step than Kobe there.

Good point IP.  How foolish of me!!  I'm here debating why Thomas can hang with Dirk and ignoring how much more Kobe is going to annihilate Rip!  I truly don't deserve the win for losing sight of my goal at hand...  Hopefully Rick Carlisle can do a better job than me at that task

[indeedproceed]

Gasol vs. Gortat

Gortat is good, I do like him.  As a bench player.  Gasol is just a much better and more refined player.  We will go to him often.  Gortat has never had significant playing time.  The most considerable time would be in the '10 playoffs, when he played 15.1 mpg.  But then, he only averaged 3.0ppg!  He has never averaged over 4.0 ppg.  If you thought Kobe was an Indy advantage, and Dirk is a Bucks advantage, how about the 8-14 nightly point advantage that Indy could be getting at the C position??  I could see an occasional Gasol - 20, Gortat - 6 point lines at the end of some games.  As a matter of fact, in the only 4 games of the '10 playoffs where Gortat logged 20+ minutes, he scored 2, 6, 5, and 2 points!!

I don't think there will be anything close to a 14pt advantage slanting for Gasol. After a full year of starting where Gortat can really show what he's capable of offensively, I think he should merit a starting spot, and he'll take Gasol down a peg or two. I've come around on Gasol's playmaking abilities though. This is a pretty heavy matchup in favor of Gasol, I will concede that. How does that make your other matchups more favorable?

I just don't see why it wouldn't be an 8-14 point advantage for Gasol.  In way more limited touches in memphis than he will get in Indy, he averaged over 14ppg and over 9rpg.  He's easily going to push 16-20 ppg here with the additional touches.  You all have said it yourselves:  who else is going to take the shots???  And my team absolutlely does NOT turn the ball over much.  So there are shots to be taken and Gasol is going to see a significant increase in his fga which will increase his ppg.

Even in 20+ mpg, Gortat has never shown that he can score double digits or even grab double digit boards consistently.

I just don't see it.  Honestly.  I like Gortat, but he's an energy bench player.  Not somebody you can count on to start and come close to matching the production of a center who can score the basketball.

Agree to disagree there.

Also, look at these H2H's.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bryanko01&p2=hamilri01

Kobe outscores Rip by almost 10 points per contest. They haven't faced each other in 2 years, but I imagine Rip is the one that has lost more of a step than Kobe there.

Good point IP.  How foolish of me!!  I'm here debating why Thomas can hang with Dirk and ignoring how much more Kobe is going to annihilate Rip!  I truly don't deserve the win for losing sight of my goal at hand...  Hopefully Rick Carlisle can do a better job than me at that task

Now you're just kissing butt. EDIT: Meant funny, not like 'shut up'.

Man I dunno. Honestly Indiana has a pretty good case here, but I really like Milwaukee's setup...I honestly think they're the better team.

But then, Dallas hasn't moved past the first round with a Kidd/Nowitzki pairing yet, have they?

I dunno, gimme 2 mins.

[action781]

Kobe is a Winner.  The best closer in the game.  Do NOT forget that.  This is the playoffs.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VCcvdrhn3M