I think he signs in cleveland for 3 years. gives him time to win a title or leave. then he can leave at only 28 and can use the line "well i tried to win in cleveland and I couldn't". this would allow him to not be hated in his hometown.
I think this is the most rational scenario in my opinion. However, remember we're dealing with a huge EGO here. Lebron doesnt want to win a title bc he loves winning. Lebron wants to start winning titles RIGHT NOW so he can have more than Kobe and Jordan when he retires, possibly get close to Russell. He wants to do EVERYTHING possible so when he retires, he can be head and shoulders above the rest. I think he'll go to the place that gives him the best shot at doing this, while still being THE MAN. Thats why my guess is Chicago. I think in Lebrons mind, if he accomplishes what I think he wants to accomplish, he can steal Chicago from Jordan. Ludicrous to me, but we're talking about a guy with a huge EGO here.
See the trend. He, I, ME ....No We, Us, or Them. Sounds more like Lebron to me
