Italy and Brasil will be in the Elite Eight. Italy always starts poorly. In 1982 they won the WC and deserved to be eliminated in the first stage. They always get the "extra help" from referees. Just like Brasil, Germany, and Argentina. Anyone has doubts of why are the winningnest teams? They are great competitors, and they have the benefit of the FIFA.
I agree that Italy usually starts poorly and plays better later, but I think this time would be different. This team is just don't have what it takes. The lost of Pirlo was huge as he's their only real playmaker, Canavaro went from being the best defender in the last WC to one of the worst in this one (you need to know when it's time to quit), the strikers are too mediocre and lacking a spark (where is Totti? even Toni would have been better than big time choker Gilardino) and now they lost Buffon too. Italy might be able to squeeze to the next round but not beyond that.
TP for your points, Misha... you could add that Lippi left Cassano out. He's a game-changer, a real soccer genius, but Lippi doesn't seem to like creative players.
But still, I don't know how, they'll be in the quarterfinals or even in the semis. They are Italy, they are great when the going gets tough... and they will have that "extra help" from FIFA.
Lippi might have had reservations about Cassano, but great manager must know how to manage big egos.
I don't agree about the extra help. Sure some big teams get the extra call here and there, but FIFA is not like NBA. The problem with the WC refs is that many of them come from countries in witch football is not as developed and they don't have the same level of experience the european refs have from champions league.
In 2002 for example, Italy got absolutely killed by Byron Moreno from Ecuador.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4iW8pDnft8
In 2002 Spain was killed by Al Gandhour versus Korea, as you see in the video. This was because of the FIFA wanted the soccer market expanding more to Asia, but in the history of the WC that's not the trend.
In 1994 Spain was killed vs. Italy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdm0QBmUfLsBack in 1934, WC quarterfinals, spanish team was literally beaten vs. Italy, like the Celtics in game 5 vs. Orlando. 7 spanish players were injured, including their goalkeeper, Ricardo Zamora, with 2 broken ribs. They repeated the game after finishing 1-1, and the ref invalidated two spanish goals in order to guarantee an italian win, 1-0. After that, Italy went to win their first WC.
Anyway, italian teams are big in competition, and you can find similar examples for Germany, Brazil, Argentina. These are the big contenders, and it's not a coincidence. Only Uruguay and France have managed to beat them, and also England in 1966, althought that was the biggest scandal in WC history.
I expect one of the big contenders to take the WC. Out of them, only Spain or England could win, but their chances don't seem very good
