Do We Have Cap Space In The Summer?

[PLamb]

I continue to be amazed by the myth that cap space means a great player will come and play here and make the next incarnation of the team contenders.  We should dispell this myth along with the idea that we can trade an expiring for talent.

Here's what we know/have learned about building a team:

1) Free agency is for suckers.  Players tend to go to the team that pays the most, meaning no other team will pay that much.  It is how bad contracts are made.  Even max players get more by staying with their team, so it's still a sucker's game.

1a) A FA is more likely to use another team's cap space as leverage to get more money where he is, i.e. Grant Hill and J-Kidd last year.  Players really don't like to move their families if they don't have to.

1b) A FA role player will take a discount for ONE year on a contender, but only with the expectation that they prove their value to cash in the following year, i.e. Posey did, and Daniels may be hoping to do.

2) Expiring contracts have little trade value by themselves.  Teams will dump overpaid players, but largely only dump young talent when they absolutely have to, and want some talent/hope back in return in either picks or prospects.

3)  The draft is the best way to get talent, but it's a crap shoot, especially outside the top-5, top-10, if you need a franchise player, and it takes a few years to develop players.  Sometimes, though, miracles happen (PP at #10).

That's how it goes.  It's understandable how some folks have looked toward FA as the hope for the future, especially after our incredibly long rebuilding process.  The rebuilding took so long because of bad trades of picks and prospects, though, not because the draft was the wrong way to go.

Predictions:  If we don't go very deep in the playoffs this year, Daniels definitely won't get more than 120% to stay, and Nate may not get a raise at all ($4 mil for a backup is a lot).  (I think they'd play well together, though).  They may not use the MLE at all if they can't get a player that makes us a contender.

Next year:  expect us to coast even more mid-year, but make the playoffs, getting a better draft pick (around #20) while still holding out hope for the fan base.

While I agree with a lot of what you have to say for many teams that are entering into the area the Celtics are(San Antonio, the Lakers and the Cavs if Lebron doesn't stay) the only way they have to get back to the top or to stay at the top once their run ends is free agency

Is it a huge gamble, yes

Can it work, yes

Can it make things worse if the team with loads of cap space and can't get who they really want overspend for bad talent, absolutely

But given where the Celtics will be in 2012, it really will be Danny Ainge's only play

[More Banners]

Grant Hill's a bad example; if he didn't get hurt, he would have been worth every dime he earned.  If they had traded for him instead, you argument would be why making trades is such a risky proposition.

Grant Hill leveraged interest from NY and the C's last summer to get a better contract from the Suns, which is where he wanted to stay all along.  It was a textbook example of a player using another team's space/interest for leverage, while the interested team had no real chance of signing him.

Of course, his career has been pretty long.  I should've been more specific.

[the_Bird]

Grant Hill's a bad example; if he didn't get hurt, he would have been worth every dime he earned.  If they had traded for him instead, you argument would be why making trades is such a risky proposition.

Grant Hill leveraged interest from NY and the C's last summer to get a better contract from the Suns, which is where he wanted to stay all along.  It was a textbook example of a player using another team's space/interest for leverage, while the interested team had no real chance of signing him.

Of course, his career has been pretty long.  I should've been more specific.

OK, and the Grant Hill example I was responding to was when he got his huge contract from Orlando.  That wasn't a bad free agent signing; it was Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.ty-ass luck that he suddenly became brittle, after barely missing a game in five or six years in Detroit.

The C's aren't going to have many options.  Even if KG and Pierce keep declining, we aren't going to be drafting in the top 5 in the next two seasons.  They're both still good enough where there's no way we aren't a playoff squad in '10 - '11, and probably still a playoff squad in '11 - '12. 

Even if we are really bad again by 2011 - 2012 (perhaps they don't re-sign Pierce, and KG can't play anymore), we're seen how tough it is to count on the lottery to rebuild.  If we're drafting at like #10 or #12, there's no guarantee of getting an impact player there.

So, what are the choices?  Ride the current squad as hard as we can for the next couple seasons, and add no salary other than what we absolutely need to for beyond 2012.  Shoot for Durant that summer.  If that doesn't work, then look to rebuild in the draft.

[More Banners]

Grant Hill's a bad example; if he didn't get hurt, he would have been worth every dime he earned.  If they had traded for him instead, you argument would be why making trades is such a risky proposition.

Grant Hill leveraged interest from NY and the C's last summer to get a better contract from the Suns, which is where he wanted to stay all along.  It was a textbook example of a player using another team's space/interest for leverage, while the interested team had no real chance of signing him.

Of course, his career has been pretty long.  I should've been more specific.

OK, and the Grant Hill example I was responding to was when he got his huge contract from Orlando.  That wasn't a bad free agent signing; it was ****ty-ass luck that he suddenly became brittle, after barely missing a game in five or six years in Detroit.

The C's aren't going to have many options.  Even if KG and Pierce keep declining, we aren't going to be drafting in the top 5 in the next two seasons.  They're both still good enough where there's no way we aren't a playoff squad in '10 - '11, and probably still a playoff squad in '11 - '12. 

Even if we are really bad again by 2011 - 2012 (perhaps they don't re-sign Pierce, and KG can't play anymore), we're seen how tough it is to count on the lottery to rebuild.  If we're drafting at like #10 or #12, there's no guarantee of getting an impact player there.

So, what are the choices?  Ride the current squad as hard as we can for the next couple seasons, and add no salary other than what we absolutely need to for beyond 2012.  Shoot for Durant that summer.  If that doesn't work, then look to rebuild in the draft.

Pierce definitely gets resigned so he can finish his career and get #34 retired.  For how long and how much will remain to be seen...and affect what other options Danny has.  I think Paul played on enough losers to appreciate the need to sign/pay other good players, but I'm not sure what his ego will allow.

FWIW, there was a decent shot of rebuilding on the fly through the draft in the late 80's-early 90's, it just fell apart when Brian Shaw went to Italy (a huge blow at the time; he was starting SG), then Reggie...

The best/shortest way to completley rebuild seems to be to have the combination of an expiring contract with a young prospect/talent.  That's how we got the talent we have.  Plan A shouldn't be either FA or the draft, but to develop whatever picks we get into an asset of some kind that can be traded with expirings (i.e. Sheed) for talent.  This year, we didn't have any prospects (just Giddens/Walker, and then BBD screwed himself and us with that thumb thing).  Hopefully one of the guys we draft this June shows some promise, or at least enough of a tease to tempt someone down the road.  To me, the young athletic PFs like Blatche, Ty Thomas, Taj Gibson, and that guy in Cle remind me of Ed Pinkney, but somehow every team in the league is up on them.  We could probably get a rough version of that picking in the 20's.  (FWIW, BBD is the antithesis of a much-desired athletic PF).  HOWEVER:  This would require a committment to developing and showcasing young players, which invariably means tolerating mistakes.

I just hope we don't pull a Dumars and drop our cap space foolishly in a quixotic bid to remain relevant post-KG.

[PLamb]

Free agency will ONLY work if we get a top 5 player in 2012

Like Durant or Oden if he comes back and is what he always should have been

Otherwise, it just has never worked in the NBA

Shaq in LA worked
Nash in Phoenix worked
Billups in Detroit worked

I'm struggling to find out many more that were successful

[the_Bird]

Well, we have absolutely nothing for young "talent" right now, and we'll have to get lucky to get anything noteworthy in the coming draft.  We'll still be picking what, mid-20's?  

I'm just tempering my expectations for the next couple seasons.  If we weren't going to trade Ray Allen's contract for some younger talent because they were worried about future flexibily with other bad contracts we'd take on, we're not going to be trading Rasheed Wallace when he's expiring.  I'm expecting that we'll explire the interesting MLE-type free agents, but get outbid when we don't offer more than two years.  We'll probably end up spending the MLE keeping Daniels and/or Nate around, rather than increasing the overall talent level of the squad.

I'm especially nervous about the Perk/Pierce issues.  Pierce signing an extension seems like a no-brainer, but assuming that happens...  do they offer Perk an extention?  You have Rondo, Pierce, and Perk all making maybe $10M - $12M per...  that, plus the inevitable cap holds, maybe you CAN'T do anything interesting in free agency in 2012.  I worry that Danny's going to be focused on rebuilding that way, and as a result we might not see them make a fair market value offer to Perk.  

[Roy Hobbs]

Free agency will ONLY work if we get a top 5 player in 2012

Like Durant or Oden if he comes back and is what he always should have been

Otherwise, it just has never worked in the NBA

Shaq in LA worked
Nash in Phoenix worked
Billups in Detroit worked

I'm struggling to find out many more that were successful

Yeah, there haven't been a ton.  Dikembe signing in Atlanta worked out; Vlade signed with the Kings as a free agent, I believe.  Rashard Lewis worked out pretty well (even though he's overpaid, he helped get the Magic to the Finals).

But regarding your larger point, yeah, there aren't a ton of turnarounds that have been fueled by free agency.  Generally, deep playoff teams are built via the draft and trades.

[sk7326]

I continue to be amazed by the myth that cap space means a great player will come and play here and make the next incarnation of the team contenders.  We should dispell this myth along with the idea that we can trade an expiring for talent.

Here's what we know/have learned about building a team:

1) Free agency is for suckers.  Players tend to go to the team that pays the most, meaning no other team will pay that much.  It is how bad contracts are made.  Even max players get more by staying with their team, so it's still a sucker's game.

1a) A FA is more likely to use another team's cap space as leverage to get more money where he is, i.e. Grant Hill and J-Kidd last year.  Players really don't like to move their families if they don't have to.

1b) A FA role player will take a discount for ONE year on a contender, but only with the expectation that they prove their value to cash in the following year, i.e. Posey did, and Daniels may be hoping to do.

2) Expiring contracts have little trade value by themselves.  Teams will dump overpaid players, but largely only dump young talent when they absolutely have to, and want some talent/hope back in return in either picks or prospects.

3)  The draft is the best way to get talent, but it's a crap shoot, especially outside the top-5, top-10, if you need a franchise player, and it takes a few years to develop players.  Sometimes, though, miracles happen (PP at #10).

That's how it goes.  It's understandable how some folks have looked toward FA as the hope for the future, especially after our incredibly long rebuilding process.  The rebuilding took so long because of bad trades of picks and prospects, though, not because the draft was the wrong way to go.

Predictions:  If we don't go very deep in the playoffs this year, Daniels definitely won't get more than 120% to stay, and Nate may not get a raise at all ($4 mil for a backup is a lot).  (I think they'd play well together, though).  They may not use the MLE at all if they can't get a player that makes us a contender.

Next year:  expect us to coast even more mid-year, but make the playoffs, getting a better draft pick (around #20) while still holding out hope for the fan base.

Cap space does not imply a superstar will come.  But if you have cap space, show that your franchise has a PLAN, and have some sort of winning credibility ... then you have a chance.

If the Celtics handle 2010 and 2011 correctly - contend, make smart decisions - don't be like Donald Sterling ... they retain their status as a credible destination.  And hopefully by then Rondo is the caliber of player who would attract a good player to want to play with him. 

That is a level of optimism that is legitimately worth having.  FA IS for suckers - if you do not offer anything.  For Minnesota to count on it is stupid - your franchise has to offer a future to a free agent.

[RJ87]

...and sign a player using the MLE which will usually get you a pretty good rotation player. Not sure we can re-sign Daniels though.

A big contract player is effectively out of the question however.

Blah, blah, blah. If the Celtics want to sign a max player, then they should be able to!!! And if they get hit with a luxury tax,then you know, so what?!!!!

It's not like the Celtics dont' have the money. And as a fan, I'd rather see a guy like Wade, Bosh, Dirk or Lebron in green than some low-level excpetion bum from Minnesota, New Jersey or the Clippers.

Hate to burst your bubble, but that's not how the current CBA is structured. There are rules in place that prevent us from signing players we don't have birdrights to if we're over the cap.

Barring a sign-and-trade, we have no chance at getting a max guy... The best we can hope for a solid rotation guy should Wyc sign off on using the MLE.

[Roy Hobbs]

...and sign a player using the MLE which will usually get you a pretty good rotation player. Not sure we can re-sign Daniels though.

A big contract player is effectively out of the question however.

Blah, blah, blah. If the Celtics want to sign a max player, then they should be able to!!! And if they get hit with a luxury tax,then you know, so what?!!!!

It's not like the Celtics dont' have the money. And as a fan, I'd rather see a guy like Wade, Bosh, Dirk or Lebron in green than some low-level excpetion bum from Minnesota, New Jersey or the Clippers.

Hate to burst your bubble, but that's not how the current CBA is structured. There are rules in place that prevent us from signing players we don't have birdrights to if we're over the cap.

Barring a sign-and-trade, we have no chance at getting a max guy... The best we can hope for a solid rotation guy should Wyc sign off on using the MLE.

Exactly.  It's not a matter of luxury tax or not having enough money.  Rather, it's not permitted by the rules.  Only teams with cap space can sign outside free agents for more than the MLE.

[divo0oneh]

I gotta question for all of you DA was interested in trading Rondo for Evans in last year's draft would any of you pull the trigger on that?

[KG_ended_Bias]

I gotta question for all of you DA was interested in trading Rondo for Evans in last year's draft would any of you pull the trigger on that?

Not for our team Rondo incorporates everybody as opposed to just scoring himself, the only thing Evans does better is score & shoot FT's. I would give Rondo every other major attribute at this point including rebounding, assist, steals, table setting, defense, penetrating & energy on a nightly basis which is important. Rondo could be a 20pt a game scorer if he was a shoot first PG.

[Eddie20]

Don't really care what we give RA as long as it doesn't exceed a 2 yr deal or hinder our front office from using the MLE for luxury tax reasons. Daniels at 2.4M (20% of his current deal) will probably get it done. Nate at about 3 to 4M is reasonable. I doubt any team gives him more than that. Williams and Scal could be back at minimum deals. TA's situation will be interesting. He could get a LLE deal from another team who likes his athleticism and defense. If that happens, do we beat that offer? What we do with the MLE ( love Mike Miller here) will dictate what happens with TA.

Love PP and I truly hope he retires in Green, but at what risk? I don't want to destroy the summer of 12 just to give him a thanks for the memories type contract.

[sk7326]

Daniels at 2.4M (20% of his current deal) will probably get it done. Nate at about 3 to 4M is reasonable. I doubt any team gives him more than that. Williams and Scal could be back at minimum deals. TA's situation will be interesting. He could get a LLE deal from another team who likes his athleticism and defense. If that happens to we beat that offer? What we do with the MLE ( love Mike Miller here) will dictate what happens with TA.

Love PP and I truly hope he retires in Green, but at what risk? I don't want to destroy the summer of 12 just to give him a thanks for the memories type contract.

well if he opts out this year - i think the Celtics can offer him a 2 year max deal in good conscience and then ask him to make the sacrifice to stay after 2012 ... you know, $5M a year sort of deals ...

I don't think we'll have to worry about some sort of reckoning with Pierce, by 2012 he would have had 15 years here.  Just be respectful in 2011 ... and still offer the chance to contend

[Chris]

I gotta question for all of you DA was interested in trading Rondo for Evans in last year's draft would any of you pull the trigger on that?

I don't think that was ever confirmed.  All that was really very solid was that Danny liked Evans, and was in the market for a lottery pick to target him.  There was speculation that Rondo was the piece he was offering, but there also were rumors that it was Perk that he was offering.  

But anyways, I don't think the Kings would trade Evans for Rondo right now, even if Danny would.  Evans is cheaper, and may be the better player.