Author Topic: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)  (Read 4517 times)

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Re: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)
« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2010, 06:26:34 PM »

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Thinking this through: 

Are we really more like a .500 team without KG, and, if so, should the rest of the starting 5 (except, perhaps, Pierce) be on the table if the right deal should come along?  Perhaps we're overestimating the value of the rest of the guys?  Are they all just very, very good role players around KG, getting a boost by playing with him?  Are we like the Piston's title team:  very good players playing well together?
 

The Cs performance without KG over the last 3 years would suggest they'd be better than .500 without him, more like low 50s in wins with a scoring margin around +3 or +4.  That'd make them probably a 4-seed, a bit better than the low seeds and a bit worse than the high seeds...essentially what we saw play-out last postseason. 

I think that is very good for a team without their best player, probably similar to what the Lakers would look like without Kobe, so no, I definitely don't see the point in making some sort of fire sale trade.  Defensively I do think they are mainly good role players surrounding Garnett, but offensively as others have pointed out the Celtics have some fire with Pierce especially as one of the best offensive players in the league.  And the pieces to this team fit together great when everyone is healthy, with great chemistry as it seems like most of our guys genuinely like each other...what would be the point of trying to break that up?

Oh, no no no...not suggesting blowing it up.  I'd certainly like to make a run this year with the starting 5, and perhaps (hopefully) a tweaked bench.

However...when this summer comes, it might make a lot of sense to listen very closely when other teams ask about Rondo and Perk.  Given the above discussion of how everything revolves around KG, the other pieces might be more movable than at least I thought before.  Free agent championship role players have been overpaid for years (i.e. Posey in NO), so why not trade the guys under contract when their value is highest for better prospects?  (Red always said to make trades when the team is winning.)  This would suggest Rondo and Perk are tradable assets, rather than future cornerstones.  I suppose that's the proposition...are they franchise cornerstones, or role players?  They're not faring too well when it's on their shoulders, are they?

I think Danny might tweak this season, but if it doesn't go well, we might have the pieces to get a major FA in a sign-and-trade this summer, right?

Re: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)
« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2010, 06:39:54 PM »

Offline drza44

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TP.

Thinking this through: 

Are we really more like a .500 team without KG, and, if so, should the rest of the starting 5 (except, perhaps, Pierce) be on the table if the right deal should come along?  Perhaps we're overestimating the value of the rest of the guys?  Are they all just very, very good role players around KG, getting a boost by playing with him?  Are we like the Piston's title team:  very good players playing well together?
 

The Cs performance without KG over the last 3 years would suggest they'd be better than .500 without him, more like low 50s in wins with a scoring margin around +3 or +4.  That'd make them probably a 4-seed, a bit better than the low seeds and a bit worse than the high seeds...essentially what we saw play-out last postseason. 

I think that is very good for a team without their best player, probably similar to what the Lakers would look like without Kobe, so no, I definitely don't see the point in making some sort of fire sale trade.  Defensively I do think they are mainly good role players surrounding Garnett, but offensively as others have pointed out the Celtics have some fire with Pierce especially as one of the best offensive players in the league.  And the pieces to this team fit together great when everyone is healthy, with great chemistry as it seems like most of our guys genuinely like each other...what would be the point of trying to break that up?

Oh, no no no...not suggesting blowing it up.  I'd certainly like to make a run this year with the starting 5, and perhaps (hopefully) a tweaked bench.

However...when this summer comes, it might make a lot of sense to listen very closely when other teams ask about Rondo and Perk.  Given the above discussion of how everything revolves around KG, the other pieces might be more movable than at least I thought before.  Free agent championship role players have been overpaid for years (i.e. Posey in NO), so why not trade the guys under contract when their value is highest for better prospects?  (Red always said to make trades when the team is winning.)  This would suggest Rondo and Perk are tradable assets, rather than future cornerstones.  I suppose that's the proposition...are they franchise cornerstones, or role players?  They're not faring too well when it's on their shoulders, are they?

I think Danny might tweak this season, but if it doesn't go well, we might have the pieces to get a major FA in a sign-and-trade this summer, right?

It's more complicated than that, not in small part because Garnett is 33 years old with shaky knees now.  His impact on the court is still huge, but you can't just ignore that he's a risk right now (as much as I wish you could).  Guys like Rondo and Perk are the young blood on the team, and that is vital in itself when it comes to building for the future.  I wouldn't have given Rondo a max deal, but IIRC he got something on the order of what a Tony Parker got in San Antonio.  I think that's fair.  Just because Duncan may be better than Parker, that doesn't mean that Parker isn't a great young player in his own right.  Similar with Rondo.

And the same would be true for Perk.  I wouldn't give him a max deal, and if that's what he's looking for then yeah, the team is better off moving him.  But he's a good young center, and his contributions to this team are also very important.

I think we may have gotten off in a direction I wasn't aiming.  There's a difference between saying that KG is the best player on the team and saying that everyone else is garbage.  As I said in my last post, I think we have one of the better overall teams in the league and that's vital.  I wouldn't build a team with championship aspirations around Rondo and Perk as the BEST two players, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't be two very good starters in 6 years surrounding whatever other great players come in to replace KG, Pierce and Ray once their time here has passsed.

Re: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)
« Reply #17 on: January 22, 2010, 06:58:30 PM »

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drza44:  (not using the quote thing due to replies being too long).

Whoa, being movable doesn't make the other guys garbage.  It only suggests there may be other possibilities that emerge this summer.  We might be able to make one of those classic Auerbach trades that makes us better, even though we give up a lot.  A player like Rondo might net us a servicable starting pg AND a high-level scoring wing to replace Ray (who we keep as 6th man on a new, mid-level type deal).  Or a similar such deal for Perk.

That doesn't make them garbage; they're assets.  Just not untouchable ones.

Re: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)
« Reply #18 on: January 22, 2010, 08:55:05 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Then last season happened, and KG got hurt, and when he did the defense absolutely fell through the floor.  It went from elite-best-in-league to average-or-worse for a good third of the season as well as the postseason.  All of the other elements were still in place...Thibs still coached, Perk/Rondo/Pierce were still on the court, but the defense stunk. 

  This isn't really true. We finished the season 2nd in defense even though KG missed much of the season. With him on the bench we were still top 8 or so. We were also among the best defenses in the playoffs last year, I believe.

  Not as good as with KG, but still well above average.

Well, considering how he "only" missed a 3rd of the season, we still finished near the top because of that.

But if you look at our ppg allowed with and without him last year, we went from ~90 to ~99 ppg allowed. 99ppg allowed would put us very close to the league average of 100 points per game.

  When KG was out I'm pretty sure that we played at a faster pace. Part of the ppg allowed increase was due to more possessions per game and part of it was due to us allowing more points per possession.  The number of points per 100 posessions we allowed when KG wasn't on the court (both after his injury and the time he was out of games before his injury) would put us 8th best in the league.

  Just consider the fact that he missed about 1/3 of the season and we still finished the season with the 2nd best defense in the league. We'd have had to have been miles better than everyone else to finish 2nd if we were 15th or so for a full 1/3 of the season.

Last point first, I do think the Cs had a pretty big lead in defensive efficiency against most of the league when Garnett was in there, and that helped them to hold onto that 2nd spot.  As for defensive efficiency, I'm familiar with points/100 possessions stats but it is a bit easier to find the composite numbers with and without KG using totals and percentages as opposed to the efficiencies.  And based on the numbers that I have seen, if our team really did rank 8th in defensive efficiency without Garnett it would really surprise me.

  I'm pretty sure their lead when KG went out was no more that 1 point per 100 possessions but I could be wrong. If you look at the numbers with and without KG they weren't that bad without him.

Re: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)
« Reply #19 on: January 22, 2010, 11:08:53 PM »

Offline zerophase

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Its true, we need KG clearly.  Stay healthy!

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Re: KG's impact on defense (ESPN article)
« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2010, 11:14:34 PM »

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Not exactly news, but the numbers in this article are mind-boggling.