You can also use anecdotal examples to talk about tossing a coin.
A coin toss is nearly purely random. When payroll data comes out, however, assuming a certain conditions on the technical indicators, the markets move, one way or another.
If you're not fully confident of the direction, you *split up* the trade... an open call for going long w/ a hedge of buying an put option, going short. If the trade blows up in your face, the option covers your loss, you then have a neutral trade. Think about it, your "winners" run and your losers flatline.
You are correct about one thing, however, usually only the top 10-20% of traders get it right, meaning a system with money management angle. And one which they follow with a certain amount of discipline.