It depends a lot on how he does with his health and what happens with Ray and KG and later acquisitions, but I'd say 5 years as things stand right now.

Actually, I think 4 years is realistic.

4 sounds just about right. He will always be an above average player/scorer, there just won't be as much gas in the tank. He'll have to pick and choose his spots more, and more as he gets older. He'll probably become more of a jump shooter, and we'll see less of the tough drives. If he has Rondo setting the plate for him, we probably won't notice his decline as much.

Good point about Rondo's probable impact on PP's game.  His ability to set up PP will lengthen PP's high level of play will probably add a year or 2 to PP's career.

3-5; it largely depends on whether he stays healthy.  One big injury (like what KG suffered last year...God forbid) and Paul's career could be significantly shortened by a couple years at least.

Pierce has looked really sharp in the first two games. His dunk against Charlotte ws a reminder that his athleticism is in almost full effect. Of course he is not the Paul Pierce from the 2002 Playoffs, but he still has lots of his old self left.

As Celtic already said, Pierce is a smart player who makes very good choices on positioning and is still one of the best in footwork skills. And as we have seen in the preseason and the first two games, he can still drive like his old self.

I would give him 3 more years at this level, where he only declines marginally in each season. After that, there could be a huge dropoff, but he will be a sixth man at the very least, and contribute a lot (like Grant Hill, Reggie Miller, etc).

I think Karl Malone's MVP seasons were at the ages of 35/36.

And then afterwards, he started to slid so if that's any indication, I say that Pierce can start for 4 more seasons and then, work effectively off the bench (< 20 min), for another 4.

Can never see Pierce coming off the bench. I think he'd retire before that.

Can never see Pierce coming off the bench.

This is the part that I don't understand. Most persons in their late 30s, aside from Kareem Abdul Jabbar thanks to Bruce Lee's Jeet Kun Do training, just can't play for sustained minutes at all-star levels. Instead, they can do spurts of all-star-ness and if the Celts are in a true re-building mode, then it works. The new generation gets their sixth man extraordinaire and every time Pierce is on court, he has a smashing game for that duration, probably a whole lot more effective than Reggie Miller during his twilight years. Eventually, the new franchise clicks and then Pierce retires with a final "4th" title [see Dave Robinson with the post-(Sean Elliot/Avery Johnson) then early core Ginobilli-Parker-Bowen Spurs in '03] and goes off into the sunset with the final trophy.