Author Topic: What is Perk really worth?  (Read 18923 times)

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What is Perk really worth?
« on: September 18, 2009, 12:04:38 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Discussions for an extension have already started to heat up for Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen has already thrown out that he would like to begin talks about extending his contract as well. But there just might be a player on the Boston Celtics who's contract is dwindling down that is more important to the Celtics' future that needs to have their contract extended just as badly. But little is being discussed about his contract situation.

Kendrick Perkins can be at times a forgotten man on this team of stars. He is unspectacular, reliable, young and a bit reclusive. When comments are sought after a game, very seldom is it Perkins that is the man reporters are looking to quote. He does his work, goes about his business, throws out his increasingly steady and very good numbers, does what he is there to do and occasionally does remarkable things that wins the team games.

Kendrick Perkins is short for a center at 6'10" and not exactly a tremendous athlete. He is still in some ways a very raw player, only this year, after 6 years in the league, showing signs of a solid low post game. He is also very young for a veteran entering his 7th year in the league being an 18 year old when drafted and still just 24 years old.

But our man Perk is a lot of other things as well. He's a worker and dedicated and smart. And....he's strong and has tremendous lower body strength, a great wide base, and a thick, powerful frame. He also has a long wingspan and is as tough and good a one on one, low post defender as you will find in the league. His help defense for the weak side has improved immensely since coach Tom Thibodeau has joined the team and I would venture to guess that having people like Kevin Garnett and Clifford Ray around to mentor him hasn't hurt either.

But the question posed is "What is Kendrick Perkins really worth to the Boston Celtics"?

Can a team win a championship without a solid man in the middle? Sure, it's been done. But history will show that a far larger number of teams win championships because they DO HAVE  not only solid, but high quality man and the middle. The Celtics, and specifically Danny Ainge, have been grooming Perk to be that high quality man in the middle for over half a decade and maybe it's time to take stock in what they have created and determine what exactly Kendrick Perkins is worth to this team.

Performance wise, Kendrick has improved his numbers in virtually every single non shooting percentage category since he has entered the league. His games played, games started, minutes per game, rebounds per game, blocks per game, and points per game have increased almost every year he has been in the league except one. Last year, at the ripe old age of 24, Perk had 8.5 PPG, 8.2 RPB, 2.0 BPG, while shooting 58% and establishing himself as probably one of the 2 or 3 best low post defenders in the game.

He the went on to step up his game in the playoffs by putting up these numbers for a KG-less Celtics: 11.9 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 57% shooting while playing Dwight Howard to a virtual stand still holding Howard to well below his normal numbers or numbers anywhere close to what any other player in the league was holding him to in the playoffs. Simply put, he was amazing in last year's playoff run.

So....what's all that worth? Well let's take a look at what others are making:

Tyson Chandler - 26 years old - signed for $24.3 million for the next 2 years
Nene Hilario - 27 years old - signed for $33.4 million for the next 3 years
Andris Biedrins - 23 years old - signed for $45 million for the next 5 years
Chris Kaman - 27 years old - signed for $33.9 million for the next 3 years
Andrew Bynum - 21 years old - signed for $57.2 million for the next 4 years
Andrew Bogut - 24 years old - signed for $60 million for the next 5 years
Emeka Okafor - 26 years old - signed for $63 million for the next 5 years
Samuel Dalambert - 28 years old - signed for $24.9 million for the next 2 years
Mehmet Okur - 30 years old - signed for $29.9 million for the next 3 years

That, my friends, is a whole boat load of cash for a lot of players, of which, I'm not sure I would trade many of them for Perk straight up in a one on one, forget the salary cap numbers, deal. For you see, Perk isn't just as talented or more so than those players.

He's a perfect fit for what this team tries to accomplish on BOTH ends of the floor. This team needs to have the stalwart defensive big man presence in the middle that can push the opposition out of the paint, get the rebound, outlet pass like it's no one's business, and block shots. And on offense they need to have the low post scoring presence and offensive rebounding and ability to come high and set an effect pick without being soft or a player that prefers outside shooting. very few men in this league do what Perk does on both ends of the floor and simultaneously checks their ego at the door because they are fifth or sixth in the pecking order of team star power.

Perk, in my estimation is invaluable to this team's success and needs to be healthy for this team to win it all. The Celtics could win it this year without Perk but I can guarantee you something, they will not win it in 2011 and beyond without him. Perk might be more important to this team's future than Rajon Rondo. Great PGs can possibly win championships without a great center but great centers can always win a championship without a great PG.

Perk is 24 years old, one of the bet defensive centers in the league, has a growing offensive game and could over the next few years really come into his own as a center teams would want to build a champion with. Best to lock him up now and not worry about things. The numbers say Perk should be making in excess of $10-12 million a year come 2012. Maybe it's time to start addressing that now before he puts up a year or two that could turn him into a near max contract player.

Because if Perk continues his constant development the way he has, in two years, that just might be what a 26 year old, championship winning center, who averages a double double and is one of the two best defensive centers in the league is worth!   

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2009, 12:19:23 PM »

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A lot of those other centers were paid in large part because of their perceived potential -- all rookie contracts, most were impressive athletes, hopes of adding more skills to their package -- but I don't think Perkins will be in the same boat. He'll be 8 years into his career + his skills and athleticism aren't as desirable. So, I'm not convinced he'll get as good offers as those other players.

In terms of value, I think Perkins is easily worth $10 million per annum. I'd be absolutely delighted with anything under that amount, and I'd be willing to go as high as $12 million per annum to hold onto him.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2009, 12:21:40 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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A lot of those other centers were paid in large part because of their perceived potential -- all rookie contracts, most were impressive athletes, hopes of adding more skills to their package -- but I don't think Perkins will be in the same boat. He'll be 8 years into his career + his skills and athleticism aren't as desirable. So, I'm not convinced he'll get as good offers as those other players.

In terms of value, I think Perkins is easily worth $10 million per annum. I'd be absolutely delighted with anything under that amount, and I'd be willing to go as high as $12 million per annum to hold onto him.
Actually, every single one of those contracts are beyond the rookie contracts.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2009, 12:23:17 PM »

Offline Chris

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2009, 12:25:47 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.
I think that would be crazy. Perk at $10 million per for 5 years beyond his current contract is a bargain. The C's would end up going a ong time trying to find another replacement for a starting center position that is as good as perk on both sides of the ball for the money they could just pay him.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2009, 12:28:58 PM »

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A lot of those other centers were paid in large part because of their perceived potential -- all rookie contracts, most were impressive athletes, hopes of adding more skills to their package -- but I don't think Perkins will be in the same boat. He'll be 8 years into his career + his skills and athleticism aren't as desirable. So, I'm not convinced he'll get as good offers as those other players.

In terms of value, I think Perkins is easily worth $10 million per annum. I'd be absolutely delighted with anything under that amount, and I'd be willing to go as high as $12 million per annum to hold onto him.
Actually, every single one of those contracts are beyond the rookie contracts.
They were all just coming off their rookie contracts when they signed their new contracts though ... right?

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2009, 12:31:50 PM »

Offline RAcker

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To be nice, I would say that Perk is worth his weight in gold...but that would just be a ridiculous amount of gold.  So, that would be an extreme overstatement.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2009, 12:41:54 PM »

Offline Chris

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.
I think that would be crazy. Perk at $10 million per for 5 years beyond his current contract is a bargain. The C's would end up going a ong time trying to find another replacement for a starting center position that is as good as perk on both sides of the ball for the money they could just pay him.

Perk is not nearly effective once KG and the rest of the big 3 are gone.  They can get away with having an offensive liability in there right now, because of the talent around him, but once they are gone, his weaknesses will start showing up even more.  For $4 million, that is fine, but you need a $10 million player to be more of an impact player on both ends of the floor. 

The way to rebuild is not by giving role players $10 million a year.  It is by maintaining financial flexibility, not locking yourself into terrible contracts, and spending the money on players who are not liabilities in part of their games...plus a lot of luck.

And don't get me wrong, I love Perk, but he is simply not a $10 million player.

With that said, I think they only trade him if they are able to get good value for him.  Otherwise, they will let him finish out his contract, and make one more run with him, and then if he is not willing to take a home-town discount, try to sign and trade him or just let him walk.  Unless he makes dramatic improvements in his offensive game (not to mention his shoulder stops popping out), I would be absolutely shocked if he is in Boston after 2011, unless he is making less than $8 million per year (and that might even be high).

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2009, 12:43:46 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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A lot of those other centers were paid in large part because of their perceived potential -- all rookie contracts, most were impressive athletes, hopes of adding more skills to their package -- but I don't think Perkins will be in the same boat. He'll be 8 years into his career + his skills and athleticism aren't as desirable. So, I'm not convinced he'll get as good offers as those other players.

In terms of value, I think Perkins is easily worth $10 million per annum. I'd be absolutely delighted with anything under that amount, and I'd be willing to go as high as $12 million per annum to hold onto him.
Actually, every single one of those contracts are beyond the rookie contracts.
They were all just coming off their rookie contracts when they signed their new contracts though ... right?
What's your point? Patrick O'Bryant came off his rookie contract and didn't get $10 million per. Neither did Chris Mihm, Eddie Griffin, Kwame Brown, Dasagna Diop, or Marcus Haislip. You prove your potential to get huge bucks on the extension of your rookie contract or the contract right thereafter. Teams don't necessarily still give out huge money for potential into the second contract. You have to have talent to get that second contract nowadays.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2009, 12:48:23 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.
I think that would be crazy. Perk at $10 million per for 5 years beyond his current contract is a bargain. The C's would end up going a ong time trying to find another replacement for a starting center position that is as good as perk on both sides of the ball for the money they could just pay him.

Perk is not nearly effective once KG and the rest of the big 3 are gone.  They can get away with having an offensive liability in there right now, because of the talent around him, but once they are gone, his weaknesses will start showing up even more.  For $4 million, that is fine, but you need a $10 million player to be more of an impact player on both ends of the floor. 

The way to rebuild is not by giving role players $10 million a year.  It is by maintaining financial flexibility, not locking yourself into terrible contracts, and spending the money on players who are not liabilities in part of their games...plus a lot of luck.

And don't get me wrong, I love Perk, but he is simply not a $10 million player.

With that said, I think they only trade him if they are able to get good value for him.  Otherwise, they will let him finish out his contract, and make one more run with him, and then if he is not willing to take a home-town discount, try to sign and trade him or just let him walk.  Unless he makes dramatic improvements in his offensive game (not to mention his shoulder stops popping out), I would be absolutely shocked if he is in Boston after 2011, unless he is making less than $8 million per year (and that might even be high).
And there is where we will have to agree to disagree because last year in the playoffs without KG Perkins showed he is more than just a role player. Given what people are making in the league and the skill level of the center talent, perk will be a bargain at $10 million, with or without the Big Three.

Again, we'll just have to agree to disagree with that.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2009, 12:51:16 PM »

Offline Chris

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.
I think that would be crazy. Perk at $10 million per for 5 years beyond his current contract is a bargain. The C's would end up going a ong time trying to find another replacement for a starting center position that is as good as perk on both sides of the ball for the money they could just pay him.

Perk is not nearly effective once KG and the rest of the big 3 are gone.  They can get away with having an offensive liability in there right now, because of the talent around him, but once they are gone, his weaknesses will start showing up even more.  For $4 million, that is fine, but you need a $10 million player to be more of an impact player on both ends of the floor. 

The way to rebuild is not by giving role players $10 million a year.  It is by maintaining financial flexibility, not locking yourself into terrible contracts, and spending the money on players who are not liabilities in part of their games...plus a lot of luck.

And don't get me wrong, I love Perk, but he is simply not a $10 million player.

With that said, I think they only trade him if they are able to get good value for him.  Otherwise, they will let him finish out his contract, and make one more run with him, and then if he is not willing to take a home-town discount, try to sign and trade him or just let him walk.  Unless he makes dramatic improvements in his offensive game (not to mention his shoulder stops popping out), I would be absolutely shocked if he is in Boston after 2011, unless he is making less than $8 million per year (and that might even be high).
And there is where we will have to agree to disagree because last year in the playoffs without KG Perkins showed he is more than just a role player. Given what people are making in the league and the skill level of the center talent, perk will be a bargain at $10 million, with or without the Big Three.

Again, we'll just have to agree to disagree with that.

I guess my point though is not that he is worth $10 million in the NBA, is it whether it would be a smart signing for a rebuilding team.  And to that I ask you, how many of these teams that signed their young centers who had clear flaws or weaknesses to $10+ million deals have ended up happy with the deals? 

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2009, 12:52:46 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.

Yeah unfortunately I agree.  The only way this will work is if Danny somehow talks him to taking about 8 million per season.  I suppose with the added depth of Rasheed his stats may stay relatively the same over the next 2 years so maybe we could get another discount.
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Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2009, 12:55:44 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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This is exactly why I expect us to be hearing Perk's name a lot in trade rumors next summer, if not even this year's deadline.  He is going to price himself off the C's in 2 years, and Danny will likely look to see what he can get for him.
I think that would be crazy. Perk at $10 million per for 5 years beyond his current contract is a bargain. The C's would end up going a ong time trying to find another replacement for a starting center position that is as good as perk on both sides of the ball for the money they could just pay him.

Perk is not nearly effective once KG and the rest of the big 3 are gone.  They can get away with having an offensive liability in there right now, because of the talent around him, but once they are gone, his weaknesses will start showing up even more.  For $4 million, that is fine, but you need a $10 million player to be more of an impact player on both ends of the floor. 

The way to rebuild is not by giving role players $10 million a year.  It is by maintaining financial flexibility, not locking yourself into terrible contracts, and spending the money on players who are not liabilities in part of their games...plus a lot of luck.

And don't get me wrong, I love Perk, but he is simply not a $10 million player.

With that said, I think they only trade him if they are able to get good value for him.  Otherwise, they will let him finish out his contract, and make one more run with him, and then if he is not willing to take a home-town discount, try to sign and trade him or just let him walk.  Unless he makes dramatic improvements in his offensive game (not to mention his shoulder stops popping out), I would be absolutely shocked if he is in Boston after 2011, unless he is making less than $8 million per year (and that might even be high).
And there is where we will have to agree to disagree because last year in the playoffs without KG Perkins showed he is more than just a role player. Given what people are making in the league and the skill level of the center talent, perk will be a bargain at $10 million, with or without the Big Three.

Again, we'll just have to agree to disagree with that.

I guess my point though is not that he is worth $10 million in the NBA, is it whether it would be a smart signing for a rebuilding team.  And to that I ask you, how many of these teams that signed their young centers who had clear flaws or weaknesses to $10+ million deals have ended up happy with the deals? 
Lakers
Jazz
Kings
Nuggets
Bucks
Hornets

I would say that most of the teams who's players I listed would say they are happy with the contract they have their center signed to.

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2009, 12:56:01 PM »

Offline liam

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Tyson Chandler - 26 years old - signed for $24.3 million for the next 2 years- OVERPAID
Nene Hilario - 27 years old - signed for $33.4 million for the next 3 years - About right
Andris Biedrins - 23 years old - signed for $45 million for the next 5 years - About right
Chris Kaman - 27 years old - signed for $33.9 million for the next 3 years- OVERPAID
Andrew Bynum - 21 years old - signed for $57.2 million for the next 4 years -OVERPAID
Andrew Bogut - 24 years old - signed for $60 million for the next 5 years -OVERPAID
Emeka Okafor - 26 years old - signed for $63 million for the next 5 years -OVERPAID
Samuel Dalambert - 28 years old - signed for $24.9 million for the next 2 years -OVERPAID
Mehmet Okur - 30 years old - signed for $29.9 million for the next 3 years - About right

Re: What is Perk really worth?
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2009, 01:02:49 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Perkins should be worth about 8-10 / year. That should be a good signing, as long as the C's can find a way to land a legit all star or 2 to play with Rondo.

If Perk's new deal gets in the way of that, then he has to go.

I agree with Chris. When this era closes, the C's need to move the role players and do what is needed to land the next batch of stars that will lead this team.

Ideally Rondo and Perkins will be playing along side those unknown new players.