Playoffs Preview Round 1:

Seattle (4) vs Phoenix (5)

This has already been somewhat debated:
Phoenix v Seattle- Part 1: LINK, Part 2: LINK, Part 3: LINK

PART 1: State of the Suns

Ok. The regular season is done. Where does my roster stand?

Some of my guys I don't see changing much and I don't want to waste your time having to read about them. That involves Roger Mason Jr, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Kyle Korver, and mostly Josh Howard.

Rajon Rondo: He didn't have 'the big 3' to stand behind this season, and he loved it. In rugby, traditionally there are two captains; a wing captain and a forwards captain. I like this dichotomy. It worked for the Celtics in 08/09, and I want to apply it here.

Rondo has evolved into my wing captain. Early in the season with the record sitting at about 10-7, there was an altercation. During a game against a spunky Sacramento team, the Suns were up 5pts midway through the third quarter. Coach Burgess Meridith put in Nate Robinson and a lot of the second unit to hold the line and maybe extend it while the starters got some rest.

Nate Robinson took his "Nate the Great" act a little too far. He hit two quick threes to extend the lead, but then it went down hill. The Kings quickly retaliated, or more exactly Steve Blake retailiated, hitting a three in Nate's face, then bilking Nate with an up fake, before hitting the lane and finding Jason Thompson with a flashy ally-oop after Jason Smith rotated to find his man. Steve Blake let out a well-deserved roar of triumph, and Nate soon started yapping. Before long, Nate's urge to prove he is the better player got the best of him and the ball movement stopped.

Nate then turned in a 0-3 shooting performance with 2 turnovers, while the Kings turned a 10 point deficit into a 5 pt lead.

The Ghost of Burgess Meridith called a timeout. John Calipari demanded Nate Robinson come out, but Burgess declined. He knew Nate had to come around, and the sooner the better.

The whole time during the timeout, Nate sat passively on the bench, with a "who, me?" expression plastered on his face.

Rondo had had enough. This was not the first time that Nate's shooting addiction had derailed the offense. He walked over and started yelling. Telling Nate to drop the ego and play the game, and reminding him that he was on a 1yr contract, and that unless he wanted to learn Italian, he'd better learn to be more than a spark that only fires every other game. Nate's face went from placid denial to rage.

Burgess in his old timey ghost wisdom, took out Roger Mason Jr, and inserted Rondo into the lineup, with explicit instructions that Nate was to bring up the ball.

Nate brought the ball up, and passed it to Rondo, not playing the offense. Rondo passed it right back and screamed on local television "RUN THE ------ OFFENSE YOU ------- PANSY! GROW UP!"

Nate ran the offense. Jason Smith hit a 5ft jumper. Back on defense Nate and Rondo had a dueling match, with Nate taking Steve Black to task like a hard nosed cornerback knocks around a soft WR. The game turned around, and so did the way the team saw Rondo.

Rondo anticipated stats:
12pts, 5rbs, 8assists, 2TO's, 2stls, 48%fg, 37%3pt.

I don't think he makes the leap to elite shooter or anything, but I do think he becomes more than an afterthought. The rest of the game, you know.

Roger Mason Jr: He's fresh off a full season as a starter for a solid, solid team in the Spurs. His confidence is high, and role is defined. He's not gonna win most improved player, but he's not going to fall off from a sound shooter and defender.

Josh Howard: Josh Howard is not the ideal player to have on your team off the court. He's prone to idiot moments. We don't need to hash them over, but lets say if it was found out that he was related to Stephon Marbury, I would only be half surprised.

That said, on the court and in the lockeroom he's a company man. He's not a leader but he's not a disruption. He'll quietly average 20pts, 6rbs and be a sound two way player, often guarding the team's best wing scorer as long as its not a point. He'll continue to be underrated, but he'll do it in silence until the offseason.

"Big" Al Jefferson: Al Jefferson is a leader. Here is a recent excerpt from a piece about the real life rebuilding Wolves:

"2010-2011 could be something of a laboratory, too," says Kahn. "There are so many things that can change, but with the path we're on, I think the third year is the first time we can really expect to make a playoff push."

Al Jefferson, the team's MVP and the star they received in the Garnett trade, flatly rejects that schedule, saying "It shouldn't be no three years."

Jefferson also rejects the slow rebuild out of sheer confidence. "When you look at how quickly things turned around in Portland," he says, "when they got Brandon Roy and those young players ... it's up to us. We have some young players, but if we do what we're supposed to do we can make this happen faster."

Jefferson says he has been "doing everything I was supposed to do, and not doing everything I wasn't supposed to do." To play center, he had bulked up to 285 or bigger last season. This summer, after seeing the team draft speedster point guards Rubio and Flynn, and knowing he'd be running more than ever, he resolved to get back to his rookie weight of 265 (he's at 270 right now).

How does one drop weight while taking it easy on a healing knee? "Easy," he says. "I didn't go home to Mississippi and eat all that fried food. I stayed in Minnesota."

This is a quiet leader. He's a guy who goes out and plays hard every night. The only thing I think will change is that he'll have more energy to devote to defense. I don't intend him to do anything more on offense than he already does, besides hit 2.5% more on his jump shots, which he should when teams have to respect his SG, SF, and PG as quality offensive players.

Andris Biedrins: He already rebounds, he already finishes like a champ around the hoop, and he already outruns other centers down the floor. That didn't change in the past hypothetical season. He did improve on defense though. Once out of Nellie ball, he was forced to either devote more effort on the defensive side, or learn to shoot a reliable 15 footer. He opted for defense, and cemented his role as a top 10 center in the NBA.

Bench players:

Kyle Korver: He's been the number 1 wing off the bench since the second year of his career. He rewards his teams with solid shooting, mistake free offense, and solid defense. He'll be my go to guy off the bench at the 2 and the 3.

Nate Robinson: He's lived in an unruly environment for 4 years in New York. He had some issues with playing in a more structured system. It wasn't easy, but he learned he had two options: either learn to defer to Rondo and play within the coach's system, or sit out his one year contract and learn to face life without playing in the NBA.

He's not always a pleasant guy to be around, and he's got a big mouth. But his teammates learned to respect him for a loyal guy to have in the lockerroom, and learned to stop paying attention when he gets in his moods. Nate Robinson choose to play for the Suns, and the Suns in turn chose to take the good with the bad from Nate Robinson. Teams chose to leave in their starters a little longer, because you can't leave just anyone out there to guard 'Little' Nate, owner of the most explosive 10pts in basketball.

Kosta Koufos: This shooting big got to play a lot more than he bargained for this season, and while he didn't progress too much on the defensive end, he did find the shooting stroke he seemed to have left behind at Ohio State last year.

The unexpected contribution he made this year was that he was able to spread the floor much more effectively for Al Jefferson. While the rebounding numbers dropped, Al Jefferson's scoring efficiency goes up when Koufos hits the floor. There aren't many teams that have a viable offensive post threat as a second string player at the center position, so when their starter comes out, so does ours, and his rediscovered shooting stroke means that Al Jefferson gives them fits.

09/10 season stats: 12 mpg, 6pts, 6rbs, 42% FG on jump shots

Jason Smith: Jason Smith had an up and down year for the Suns this year. His rebound from injury was not as smooth as we would've liked, and he didn't regain total mobility until at his estimation January.

While he didn't make the progress we wanted on the offensive end, his added bulk this offseason proved useful. He took his limitations seriously, and greatly improved his effort on the defensive end. He's still an ok offensive player but he really earned his playing time being the best defender on the pick and role we had all season. He's not strong enough to stop players like Dwight Howard from getting where they want to be, but he is good enough to stop teams that play a two man game from exploiting rotations.

09/10 hypothetical stats: 10 mpg, 3pts, 4rbs, opponent PER: 10.09

Josh McRoberts/Ersan Ilyasova: The biggest weakness we thought we had was a tough transition. Josh McRoberts showed he has absolutely no acumen for the SF position. He was slow to defend the starters, and his outside shooting hasn't regained the ability he showed in college. He made his living off of garbage points and 15 footers in the playing time he saw. The one place he showed promise was defending so called hybrid forwards like Boris Diaw and Rashard Lewis. Guys that were too big to be defended by common SF's found a willing adversary in McRoberts, and his speed was not an issue against these fellas.

Ersan Ilyasova however really distinguished himself. His shooting was deserving of more time, but his defense was above our expectations. His 2 years in Europe really seasoned him, and he showed that confidence on the defensive end. He often insisted on take the hardest defensive assignment on the floor when he saw time, and usually didn't disappoint (beyond Rashard Lewis's 10 points in 3 mins on a rainy sunday in January).

He still shot 37% from long range and showed a willingness to head for the hoop when he had the chance, both qualities he had before his 2 years abroad.

In the end, Ilyasova got the majority of the mins between himself and McRoberts. While McRoberts retained his role when specific players (noteably Rashard Lewis, to a degree Thad Young) are on the court, against the majority of teams, Ilyasova saw more time.

09/10 hypo stats:
McRoberts: 4MPG, 2pts, 1.5 Rbs, .7 blks
Ilyasova: 8.5 MPG, 4pts, 2rbs, 38% 3pt FG %

Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto started playing more mins in early Janruary. Not both in the same games, and neither played heavily in back to backs. That's over now. More to come on that in the matchups vs Seattle.