I think signing Rasheed to three years committed the Celtics to at least a three year "win now" window.  Therefore, I'd like to see them extend Ray for another two seasons. 

It's hard to peg the value of the extension, but I think 2 years, $20 million is close to market value.  Obviously, the less he'd take the better, but I think $10 million per season would be my ceiling.

I agree. I think those prices may be a bit low, though. Maybe not. I mean, he's gotta look at it and see that Wallace, former All Star, is now a midlevel player. Iverson can't even get the midlevel. Artest is a midlevel player and he's several years younger than Ray. Not that Ray is a similar type of player to any of those guys, but Ray is a similar caliber player - aging great player.

I personally think Ray will age better than most. While I remember a lot of Mitch Richmond comparisons - shooters lose their touch very precipitously around 32, 33 - I always hated that comparison because Ray is an all-time great shooter, well above the level of Richmond. He has impeccable form and a tireless work ethic that's going nowhere. If we could get him for 2 years, I'd pay up to $20 million for him too depending on what Rondo takes. It's still a $10 million paycut. And in 11-12, we'd have about $16-17 million in expiring contracts between Ray and Sheed. Obviously, less is more, but I'd pay that. I think he'll still be a great contributor at that stage.

And just so you know, KG drops to I think $16.4 mil this year, but he's back up to $18.8 in 10-11 and $21.2 in 11-12. So there's big payments going out. Pierce also makes $21 in 10-11.

I agree. I think those prices may be a bit low, though. Maybe not. I mean, he's gotta look at it and see that Wallace, former All Star, is now a midlevel player. Iverson can't even get the midlevel. Artest is a midlevel player and he's several years younger than Ray. Not that Ray is a similar type of player to any of those guys, but Ray is a similar caliber player - aging great player.

I personally think Ray will age better than most. While I remember a lot of Mitch Richmond comparisons - shooters lose their touch very precipitously around 32, 33 - I always hated that comparison because Ray is an all-time great shooter, well above the level of Richmond. He has impeccable form and a tireless work ethic that's going nowhere. If we could get him for 2 years, I'd pay up to $20 million for him too depending on what Rondo takes. It's still a $10 million paycut. And in 11-12, we'd have about $16-17 million in expiring contracts between Ray and Sheed. Obviously, less is more, but I'd pay that. I think he'll still be a great contributor at that stage.

And just so you know, KG drops to I think $16.4 mil this year, but he's back up to $18.8 in 10-11 and $21.2 in 11-12. So there's big payments going out. Pierce also makes $21 in 10-11.

Ray Allen's conditioning is way better though. Better comparison would be Reggie, who was still scoring 16 a night till he was 36, and that really is Ray's best comparison. Ray even has better conditioning

I agree. I think those prices may be a bit low, though. Maybe not. I mean, he's gotta look at it and see that Wallace, former All Star, is now a midlevel player. Iverson can't even get the midlevel. Artest is a midlevel player and he's several years younger than Ray. Not that Ray is a similar type of player to any of those guys, but Ray is a similar caliber player - aging great player.

I personally think Ray will age better than most. While I remember a lot of Mitch Richmond comparisons - shooters lose their touch very precipitously around 32, 33 - I always hated that comparison because Ray is an all-time great shooter, well above the level of Richmond. He has impeccable form and a tireless work ethic that's going nowhere. If we could get him for 2 years, I'd pay up to $20 million for him too depending on what Rondo takes. It's still a $10 million paycut. And in 11-12, we'd have about $16-17 million in expiring contracts between Ray and Sheed. Obviously, less is more, but I'd pay that. I think he'll still be a great contributor at that stage.

And just so you know, KG drops to I think $16.4 mil this year, but he's back up to $18.8 in 10-11 and $21.2 in 11-12. So there's big payments going out. Pierce also makes $21 in 10-11.

Artest is better than a mid-level player. He just wanted to go to LA, so LA got a bargain. It was also a buyer's market for players of his caliber due to the salary cap. If Artest re-signed with Houston, they could have given him what he is really worth.

This is not unlike us low-balling Grant Hill. We were offering him well below his market value with the hope that a chance to win would make up the difference. If he had signed with us, that wouldn't mean he is a 2 million dollar valued player, because the market was willing to pay more.

It is hard forecast salaries by comparing players re-signing with teams to players moving for non-financial reasons.

Quote from: vagrantwade on July 11, 2009, 12:03:53 PM

Quote from: Greeny on July 11, 2009, 11:51:23 AM

So there are BIG names next year as free agents.  Maybe DA may dumped Ray for one of the younger guys. D-Wade maybe?
I would keep Ray for 14 million for another 2 years.

Celtics have probably 0% chance of obtaining D-Wade.

0.042% to be more precise.

The only possible way would be a sign and trade, meaning we would have to come up with 16m in salary to match.

But Wade could decline the trade could he not? I am not sure how it works in basketball, but in baseball you can when you have played with a team for X number of years.

Ray Allen's conditioning is way better though. Better comparison would be Reggie, who was still scoring 16 a night till he was 36, and that really is Ray's best comparison. Ray even has better conditioning

I thoroughly agree. That's why I mentioned how much I hated the Richmond comparison. Miller's always been a better comparison - Allen is a solid starter for probably 2-3 more years and could be a contributor to a winner as an excellent bench scorer for another 3-4 years after that. I don't think he'll stick around as long as Miller, though, because he's got a ring and a better Hall of Fame resume.

Quote from: guava_wrench on July 11, 2009, 12:07:01 PM

Artest is better than a mid-level player. He just wanted to go to LA, so LA got a bargain. It was also a buyer's market for players of his caliber due to the salary cap. If Artest re-signed with Houston, they could have given him what he is really worth.

This is not unlike us low-balling Grant Hill. We were offering him well below his market value with the hope that a chance to win would make up the difference. If he had signed with us, that wouldn't mean he is a 2 million dollar valued player, because the market was willing to pay more.

It is hard forecast salaries by comparing players re-signing with teams to players moving for non-financial reasons.

That's true. Rockets were offering Ron a lot more money.

as for Wade, he can't decline the trade. Only Kobe and people with weird Bird rights have no-trade clauses.

However, Pat Riley would not be dumb enough to do that.

In naming them, I'm talking about what his other options are likely to be from other teams on the market. Of course, this year was simply a much better year to have a key veteran become a free agent - there simply wasn't a ton of competition for players. Nobody had much more than the MLE, and if they did, they only wanted the very top caliber players and/or young ones. So the Lakers have Odom in a corner for example, and he'll take $2-3 million a year less than he wanted. Same for Andre Miller, for example. As for Artest, yeah, he clearly gave a discount, but I wonder what else he really could have gotten. If Houston really wanted to spend money on him, they could have wrapped him up much sooner. I've seen nothing indicating they offered him more money. I think when Yao went down and with questions about his future, they're not sure keeping Artest would have made much sense. I am surprised he didn't at least see what Portland would be willing to offer him. They had the cap space, and I'm sure they'd love a Kobe stopper on their squad.

Of course, what I should have gotten into is that next year there will be much more money available with teams saving up space for 2010. So there's a better chance of Ray getting a better offer. My belief, though, is that we're still going to be the only team able to give Allen considerable money, so we might get him for less than say $9-10 mil a year. Something more like $6.5-8 is very possible given market conditions, particularly if the cap goes down again and/or the economy stays unstable.

I was reaching when I talked about the possible D-Wade free agent signing.
I used it as an example of the freed up money from Ray possibly being traded or not offered a new deal from the Celtics.

I hope Ray finished here in Boston, as he has become a fixture in the Celtics family and a fan favorite.