I like this deal (I too would rather be giving this money to Posey, but I don't see a reason to compound mistakes and just judge the deal on its merits; also, after this season, the difference between the two contracts is only about $1.5 mil- Nocioni gets 8 for this season, much of it already paid, and Posey gets 5.5 this year), but agree that the only possible way we can do it is if we KNOW we are getting Smith too, and I just think there's too big a risk of that not happening. A fallback option like Calvin Booth (who has played only one minute this season for Minnesota) just doesn't cut - to me, it HAS to be Smith or this deal doesn't make sense.
First, I like Nocioni as a player more than the four guys we'd be giving up combined) and think he would fill an important role for the Celtics. He is a tough defender, and by my memory, raised his game in the playoffs a few years ago with Chicago. He is no Posey, but he can play in that role and would again open up the option for us to play small when necessary since he can fill in as a power forward in certain situations.
As for the outgoing guys, I have no problem with Allen and O'Bryant going. IF Smith comes in, he'll take a lot of Davis' minutes anyway and Powe could fill up any remaining minutes that are needed. That leaves Scalabrine, and I think the combination of Smith, Nocioni and a third "insurance" center who gets bought out (neither are great shakes, but for example Chris Mihm and/or Calvin Booth could be bought out and be as adequate a third center for this season as O'Bryant is), could take up the need we might have for Scalabrine. Fact is, we are probably going to have to let Davis or Powe go this year. It's certainly debateable which player is better, but what this season has shown me even more than last is that Davis is NOT a center, so we can't hold on to two power forwards who fill the same role. So I would not lose any sleep over losing Davis.
I for one would be extremely happy with a bench crew of Pruitt, House, Nocioni, Powe and Smith. We'd hold onto Giddens and Walker, and have room to add an insurance big, Marbury if he comes available, or even bring Cassell back in as point insurance if Marbury doesn't come to town.
All that said, if Smith is not coming, we can't do this trade. I don't think Davis has a long future here, but we can't give up him and Scalabrine, the only guys on our current roster who would play minutes at center, where we need a backup, for a small forward. We'd be better off hoping Walker can fill some time, relying more on Pruitt and leaving the rotation of big men we have.
(Question: do we have to name the 12 man roster for the entire playoffs before the playoffs start, or can the rosters be altered between series, in case of injuries? It would be nice to have ten men set (eleven if we sign Marbury), and then be able to choose between Walker, Giddens and an extra big depending on the series.)
Bottom line, if it is substantially probable that Smith will be bought out and would come to Boston, I would do the Nocioni trade. If we don't have that confidence, we can't give up multiple bigger guys for one smaller guy.
