Preseason just ended, time to evaluate it!

[LarBrd33]

My Thoughts:

The Big Three is still the Big Three.  We will live and die with them.  Mainly Kevin Garnett.  If KG goes out, we're in serious trouble.  But with those three healthy, we'll be contenders.

Perk is Perk.  He'll man the middle, play some solid defense, get into foul trouble and frustrate the heck out of me every time he gets a wide open path for a dunk and spends 4 seconds bending his legs, allowing a defender to catch up to him and getting sent to the line.

Rondo is still a young inconsistent player.  He'll provide good defense, various "intangibles"...  Capable starter who will continue to be a big help to this team.  But I'm not expecting him to make any "leap" to superstardum.  Thankfully we don't need that.  He'll continue to have games where he has like 2 points and 3 assists.  One thing though... our backup point situation is still a problem if Cassell continues to suck...  we might need Rondo to play 40+ minutes. 

House is House.  He'll hit some huge three pointers and provide some energy.  The team is still weak in backup point guard, but hopefully Sam Cassell is able to step in with a full training camp under his belt and not be a total wreck like last season.

The team will really miss James Posey. 

Tony Allen will be super inconsistent as always.  He'll have some games when he gets 20 points... and some games where he's a walking turnover who looks completely lost.  He'll be a help on defense if he can stay healthy.  He's not capable of being a consistent scorer off the bench.  It'll still be an issue for us.  Luckily it doesn't matter, because we can always have one of the big three in the game.

Patrick O'Bryant will be ok.  Not spectacular.  He'll be an alright backup if we need him, but most of the backup bigmen minutes will go to...

Leon Powe ...   He'll still be a solid little backup.  He's undersized and unfortunately we'll have to play O'Bryant at times, but Powe will still be able to get some double-doubles off the bench on occasion.   He could hurt us on defense though.

Scal - He sucks.  Scal's Scal.  Maybe he'll get minutes once in a while, because apparently he's an intelligent player who knows the defense.

Giddens - meh.   Send him to D-League

Bill Walker - he can dunk.  That's nice... stick him in the dunk contest

Big Baby - Fat bum.   Might have a couple moments (like last season), but his minutes should go to Powe

Gabe Pruitt - Meh.  If we are relying on heavy minutes from Gabe Pruitt this season... something has gone terribly wrong.  He would have been cut if Darius Miles had a pulse.   Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm just not that impressed with his preseason stats.

[cordobes]

and rondo isn't a starting level PG? wow....just wow. apperntly in your mind, a PG needs to be dropping 20 points a game, because, as hollinger just pointed out along with barry, if you project his minutes out from his 27 (what he got last year, even with the increse late in the year, early he was getting 24-26) to 32-36, which is what most people think he'll get from doc this year, he's going to average somewere around:

9-10 assists, 5-7 rebounds, 3+ steals  , and 10-12 points.

considering he's the fourth scoring option, thats ridiculously good on a defensive squad.

i love people who say he needs to score more to be a good PG. really? who's shots are you taking away? paul's? rays? kevins?

honestly people....

He should be taking his own shots. The point is not exactly about scoring, rather about making things easier for the other guys (and for himself, even as a distributor). Every time Rondo passes on an wide open shot, he's hurting the team.

Rondo is a very good pg, with some great skills, and a game changer on defense, but few slow-paced teams could afford having him as a starter. Fortunately, the C's are one of them.

[crownsy]

that doesnt change my question. every time he shoots, you have to take a shot away from one of the other three by simple mathmatics.

last year, paul shot an average of 19 times, ray 16, and kevin 16, with rondo shooting 7-8 times a game.

if you want him to shoot his "open look" when he sees it which, lets say, he sees 14-16 times a game total with that unit, one of them, or as a combo of them,  is losing 6-9 shots in favor of a kid who is still improving his jumpshot in his third year.

who should it be out of 3 potential HOF players known in all three cases as great offensive threats?

dont you think its more likely he's told to focus on defense and passing first and defer to the three of them when running plays unless later in the shot clock? (when we move the ball effectivly, we rarley, if ever, struggle to get one of the three of them a good look within the 24)

POSTERS NOTE: i agree he needs to take more open looks when he sees them, im just saying expecting him to suddenly turn in a 15-20 PPG scorer, as some seem to want him to be, and play his same elite defense is unrealistic without taking one of the PGA tour out of the offense.

[cordobes]

crowmsy, things are not static. If Rondo was hitting his open shots, teams would have to adjust. Therefore, conceding more space, making things easier for Rondo to distribute (and to drive) and for the Big3 to operate. Our offense would have much more diversity, you could use Rondo as a entry post passer, run pick and rolls with him, etc. In the end, he would be taking the same amount of shots, but the team overall would take more efficient shots.

[crownsy]

crowmsy, things are not static. If Rondo was hitting his open shots, teams would have to adjust. Therefore, conceding more space, making things easier for Rondo to distribute (and to drive) and for the Big3 to operate. Our offense would have much more diversity, you could use Rondo as a entry post passer, run pick and rolls with him, etc. In the end, he would be taking the same amount of shots, but the team overall would take more efficient shots.

well, actually, since thats based on our typical game, the "someone has to lose shots" point i brought up kind of is  unless were going to start being PHX and not using the clock like we do. we dont see a super amount of possesions per game right now, because were alrady pretty darn effeicent thanks to our passing game. unless we shift to a much more "run and gun" offense, our shot totals for that unit will stay roughly static.

and i don't belive he would be taking the same amount of shots. discounting a 3 pointer, he'd need to be 7/7 to get 14. since he's a 40% shooter right now, let 's bump him to 45%, giving him an increse to average shooting PG.

tha means he'd still need, on a good night, 14 shots right now to get 12-16 points.

so that first unit is going to need to cough up 7-10 shots at least.

I agree he needs to be more agressive with the open look, as i said, but someones going to pay the price per 100 posseasions.

im just not sure its "more efficecent" to take away 7-9 shots a game from 3 HOF'ers to give them to a 3rd eyar kid for the sake of having him shoot more aggresivley.

to me, its more effiecnt if he sticks to and improves his current game, takes the same number of shots he does now, but learns to shoot them better, which, since he jumped from a 27% on his midrange to a 38% last year, he seems to be doing.

i'm all for him being more aggersive and learning a better jumpshot, but he's not going to magicaly add 10-12 points to his average without someone on that first unit taking less shots.





not trying to say "stay static for all time on offense" just pointing out that more shots for one guy = less for another. we already saw this with the big 3 ( down an average of 5 shots from thier typical totals all year) if you want a 4th player to start taking more looks, then someone is going to have to defer even more than they due now.

EDIT: cor, i also think we agree on the point were debating at this point, i want him to be more aggersive on his shot when it presents itself as well, i think where were crossing each other up is that my original concern was to a post that said he needs to score more to be a good PG.

I don't think thats true. i think he need'sto be, as i think your trying to say, be more aggressive and effiecent on the shots he does take, while continuing his defenise and distribution.

[cordobes]

If Rondo starts taking his open jumpers, the opponents will sag off of him a lot less. Hence, he'll have a lot less open jumpers to take. So, the distribution of shots per possession will remain the same. I think you are disregarding the fact that other teams would make this adjustment rather quickly. The difference will be that without a roaming defender who can provide early help and cheat on the passing lanes without giving up anything costly, the big 3 will have better shots, hence more efficient, and it'll be easier for Rondo to create. As I said, it's not about his scoring or transforming him in a scoring pg, let alone a jump-shooter. Rondo should try to do what Parker was doing in his first years in San Antonio.

EDIT: cor, i also think we agree on the point were debating at this point, i want him to be more aggersive on his shot when it presents itself as well, i think where were crossing each other up is that my original concern was to a post that said he needs to score more to be a good PG.

I don't think thats true. i think he need'sto be, as i think your trying to say, be more aggressive and effiecent on the shots he does take, while continuing his defenise and distribution.

Right, he doesn't need to score more, agreed.

[EJPLAYA]

I don't think he spent near the time working on it as he did the last offseason. If he did, then this may be as good as it gets. With all he does out there that is pretty solid though.

good obeservations EJ, though on this one i would point out that he had a real short offseason to work on anything, compared to the extra 2 and a half months he got last year

he also didn't play in the preseason alot with the two holdouts coming in the "starter heavey" games.

I agree it would be nice if he improved it a bit though, we shall see

What I love about Rondo is that he does work in the offseason and it's pretty evident he did this offseason. But from the looks of him, he didn't work on his shot. He did, however, work on his body, which looks to have added a good 10 pounds of muscle.

We look at Rondo and see a need for a better shot. Rondo may have looked at Rondo, not liked the way felt felt or suffered physically during the year because of the beating one can take playing 100 NBA games in a season and decided he needed to be stronger to be more effective. So he added muscle mass and strength.

I applaud him if that was his goal because it looks like for the second year in a row he probably succeeded in making a part of his game or himself better. If that continues maybe next offseason he works again on his shot.

You know, until you said that I really hadn't noticed that. You are right. That is a big need for him which will allow him to hopefully stay healthy. It doesn't look like he lost his quickness though. I would have liked to see some improvement on his shot though. If he could knock down that 18 footer he would be a top 3-4 pg in this league. He would absolutely kill people.

Crownsy is also right that they didn't have quite the same offseason abilities as last year due to that strange occurrence of playing into the summer! Let's hope he gets that same short offseason this year!

[celt4ever]

like i said last year when i said banner 17 this year is banner 18 enjoy the season

[Who]

I was very impressed with the progress Leon Powe showed in preseason. He looks much more comfortable creating his own shot out of the post.

I liked what I saw from Tony Allen also.

The starting five were superb as a unit.

[BillfromBoston]

that doesnt change my question. every time he shoots, you have to take a shot away from one of the other three by simple mathmatics.

last year, paul shot an average of 19 times, ray 16, and kevin 16, with rondo shooting 7-8 times a game.

if you want him to shoot his "open look" when he sees it which, lets say, he sees 14-16 times a game total with that unit, one of them, or as a combo of them,  is losing 6-9 shots in favor of a kid who is still improving his jumpshot in his third year.

who should it be out of 3 potential HOF players known in all three cases as great offensive threats?

dont you think its more likely he's told to focus on defense and passing first and defer to the three of them when running plays unless later in the shot clock? (when we move the ball effectivly, we rarley, if ever, struggle to get one of the three of them a good look within the 24)

POSTERS NOTE: i agree he needs to take more open looks when he sees them, im just saying expecting him to suddenly turn in a 15-20 PPG scorer, as some seem to want him to be, and play his same elite defense is unrealistic without taking one of the PGA tour out of the offense.

I'm pretty sure none of GPA shot over 14 times a game...13.7/13.9/13.5 respectively- but your point is well-taken...I don't worry about Rondo's shot too much now - I don't think he will show substantial improvement in it this season, but if he shows better recognition on when to take the open look, he can thrive on the threat of that set shot in order to get to the hoop - watch Tony Parker's early development for a roadmap.

As far as i'm concerned this team is stronger this season BECAUSE of the consistency the bench should provide:

Leon Powe - Getting more consistent by the minute - he'll average over 10/6 this year i'd bet and will probably get about 15/10 anytime he plays over 25 mpg

Tony Allen - Another candidate for 10+ points off the bench, (i'm guessing 12-13). The guy is confident again and is basically getting all the minutes behind Pierce/Allen, which should account for 25-30 mpg. He'll be sat situationally, but will get a ton of touches, which favors him. Not nearly as TO prone as some are making out - if he's getting 17+ touches offensively he's going to turn it over as a slasher - you have to look at other high posession slashers for reference. If he's between 2-3 TO a game, i'm good.

Eddie House - Very underestimated IMO. Has shown great improvement and looks very comfortable. Will be even more consistent this season, as most other players will be. He'll win some games by himself and I bet he's going to bring just as much to the table as Posey did. GREAT a running the pick-and-roll in the half-court, deadly/clutch shooter, very underrated team defender and pesky on-ball defender.

...I think BBD will be the situational big and the Baby/Powe frontcourt will get minutes near every night as the two play well together. Baby has shown he can defend 5's effectively and while the team would like POB to take some of the towers - like Z - they can certainly live with Davis here...the rest is elementary IMO - Pruitt and Cassell will play a situational role, Bill Walker will get a run or two and may become a specialist/sub later in the year, Pierce will see a bit of time at the 4 if/when Powe isn't effective and the team wants to go small and fast...

Personally, if healthy, I think this team is going to be substantially stronger this year because the starting 5 will be better as a unit, the team will get at least 8-10 more possessions a game offensively, will turn the ball over less frequently, and will get to the FT line more often. I guarentee they will transition more often. The bench will score much more consistently and the team will have more of a post presence with Perk and Powe getting some touches on the block...

This team is ready to rock - I am quite excited to watch a steady 8-9 man rotation lock in and do their thing...