The evolution of Tony Allen: 4 years later, he still has "potential"

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm taking this from the Michael Finley thread, so as not to go off-topic.

Rivers has also said Tony is due for a breakout monstrous year.

If people think Doc really meant that, again, why didn't Danny pick up his qualifying offer?  We could have had Tony locked in for $2.7 million.  If he's a top defender, and is going to have a "monstrous" offensive year, why risk losing him?

The hyperbole about Tony is getting pretty wild.

[blueygreen]

I'm taking this from the Michael Finley thread, so as not to go off-topic.


If people think Doc really meant that, again, why didn't Danny pick up his qualifying offer?  We could have had Tony locked in for $2.7 million.  If he's a top defender, and is going to have a "monstrous" offensive year, why risk losing him?

The hyperbole about Tony is getting pretty wild.

I think it's Doc fitting the player to the circumstances. If we resigned Posey, there's no chance Tony would get enough minutes for a 'breakout monstrous year'. While without him, he suddenly becomes a much more important piece to the puzzle and will get more of a chance to 'breakout'.

Rivers also didn't make this statement until after he was locked up, this could be the ends justifying the means but the whole signing could be a calculated risk. Danny might have thought that Tony wouldn't get much love from other teams and we could lock him up for longer and less.

[/devils advocate]

[timepiece33]

I'm not sure where timepiece gets his numbers from, but basketball-reference has something called "turnover rate", an estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions.

Tony's was 18.9, meaning he turned the ball over roughly 19% of the time.  Manu's was 14.5; that's a pretty significant difference.

You got "turnover rate" and Hollinger's "Turnover Ratio" statistic both of which lay out a story that he turns over the ball at an alarming rate. 

[Who]

I don't buy this.  Yes, if Tony was the player we all want him to be, that would be the case.  However, right now, he's not there.  This team definitely needed a guy who could create his own shot last season, and Tony wasn't that guy.

Tony Allen didn't deserve to play ahead of Ray/Pierce/Posey. They all added more to the team than Tony did. That's why I wanted Posey to be kept.

After reading all the superlatives for Tony on the blog over the last couple of weeks, I am absolutely shocked that Danny initially declined his qualifying offer.  How could he risk letting such a rare talent go, for the pittance of $2.7 million or so?  Oh, that's right...  because Tony isn't nearly as good as folks on here suggest he is.

Didn't matter much at the time. The hope was for James Posey to be kept because, as I just said, he offered more to the team than Tony and there weren't enough minutes available for Tony to play - especially come playoff time.

I was also hoping that Tony would get his opportunity on a team like a Toronto. A good team where he can earn a substantial role where he can flourish. Since he's not a sure thing I wasn't wild about the thought of a contender, such as Boston, signing him. He would have been better off the next level down.

Let's hope, after a year of recovery, that he morphs into the "poor man's D. Wade" (lol) that many on here think he can become.

Not really looking for that type of player. Tony is best when he starts slightly inside the perimeter rather than up behind the three point line going off the dribble. His lack of ballhandling and floor general skills play a big role in that. For that reason .... He's got more in common with Melo's face up game away from the hoop(that area specifically) than a player like Wade or a lesser player but similar style of player in Rodney Stuckey. Obviously that makes an apt comparison fairly difficult because there aren't many two guards that play that way.

I can't offer much in the way of an example, I think this is the best I can do:

Tony has some similarities to Bonzi Wells, they create their shots in different ways but are similar in their contribution offensively. Bonzi likes to move into the post, Tony drives. They both create their own shot, provide some offensive diversity, both are aggressive offensively, attack the inside of the defense and can cause a lot of problems because of it. Poor jump shooters too. I'd like Tony to provide that a similar impact offensively as Bonzi does off the bench.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I'm not sure where timepiece gets his numbers from, but basketball-reference has something called "turnover rate", an estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions.

Tony's was 18.9, meaning he turned the ball over roughly 19% of the time.  Manu's was 14.5; that's a pretty significant difference.

You got "turnover rate" and Hollinger's "Turnover Ratio" statistic both of which lay out a story that he turns over the ball at an alarming rate. 

His high FTA and FGA bail Ginobili out... he's a turnover machine through and through, it's not worth arguing against.

[timepiece33]

His high FTA and FGA bail Ginobili out... his a turnover machine through and through, it's not worth arguing against.

How else would you look at it?  It has to be based on touches.   Coming up with an aggregate number instead of looking at possessions is absurd considering the vast difference in minutes and touches. Per possession, Tony Allen turns the ball over considerably more than Ginobili.   

Tony Allen is a very inefficient offensive performer.  I agree he has tools, but he's been too dumb to use them so far in his career.  What makes people think he is going to be any different now?   

[BudweiserCeltic]

His high FTA and FGA bail Ginobili out... his a turnover machine through and through, it's not worth arguing against.

How else would you look at it?  It has to be based on touches.   Coming up with an aggregate number instead of looking at possessions is absurd considering the vast difference in minutes and touches. 

Because it's not an accurate picture of what is considered a possession... so in other words if you didn't take a shot, didn't make an assist, and didn't go to the line you didn't participate in the offense at all? By this numbers Ginobili turns the ball over as often as Rondo, or less than him... do you truely believe that when Rondo has a hand on the ball in pretty much every play when he's on the floor?

Anyways, by that stat Ginobili is 50th in the league among SG's while being among the top FGA + FTA players... it still shows he's quite a turnover machine.

[Who]

I don't think turnovers were the biggest problem offensively for Tony last season. I thought the biggest problem for Tony was his finishing around the basket. His inability to finish around the rim had a large effect on his impact, it limited him.

Last season he took 238 shots in the paint which is about 2/3rds of his total shots. The problem was that he only hit 48% of his shots inside which is poor, poor for anybody, but especially poor for a player who relies on his ability to get to the hoop and finish.

The year before he shot 61% on those shots, 55% the year before that. If he can get back to that and I think he can, it'll make a huge difference to his effectiveness on the court.

A lot of those problems were related to his injury. Sometimes it was physical when he clearly just didn't elevate as high as he or anyone else expected ... but I think Doc was right when he said most of the problems were in Tony's head. Getting comfortable on those moves again was both hard for him and lengthily process.

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't buy this.  Yes, if Tony was the player we all want him to be, that would be the case.  However, right now, he's not there.  This team definitely needed a guy who could create his own shot last season, and Tony wasn't that guy.

Tony Allen didn't deserve to play ahead of Ray/Pierce/Posey. They all added more to the team than Tony did. That's why I wanted Posey to be kept.

If Tony is as unique and talented a player as you say, though, it seems like the team should have been trying to sign both he *and* Posey.  Tony averaged roughly 18 mpg last year, so it's not like there wouldn't be any minutes.  I would think that Tony's slashing / penetrating / creating abilities would have been a perfect compliment to Posey's catch-and-shoot skills.  Posey could have defended PFs and SFs, while Tony defended SGs.  Sounds like they would have been perfect complementary bench players for one another.

Obviously, Danny didn't see it that way, mostly because he wasn't in love with Tony as some others are.  Otherwise, he would have picked up Tony's qualifying offer.

[timepiece33]

Because it's not an accurate picture of what is considered a possession... so in other words if you didn't take a shot, didn't make an assist, and didn't go to the line you didn't participate in the offense at all? By this numbers Ginobili turns the ball over as often as Rondo, or less than him... do you truely believe that when Rondo has a hand on the ball in pretty much every play when he's on the floor?

What else are you going to use?   Shots, free throws, assists, and turnovers are easily a mechanism to show how much you touch the ball especially when you are comparing across positions.  Are you really trying to suggest that Tony Allen has more "non shot, assist, and turnover" touches than Ginobilil?

Just because the statistic shows that Tony Allen is worse, doesn't mean it is irrelevant.   

Anyways, by that stat Ginobili is 50th in the league among SG's while being among the top FGA + FTA players... it still shows he's quite a turnover machine.

Just not as bad as Tony Allen who is a considerably less effective offensive player. 

If Tony Allen were putting up a 24+ PER instead of a 10.7 PER ranking in the 300's in the league, I might have a different attitude towards him.   

Personally, I felt he was one of the worst options we could pick up, but we still have some of the MLE to play with (which is a benefit).   

Otherwise, I would have preferred Matt Barnes OR Maurice Evans AND I don't like Barnes.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Because it's not an accurate picture of what is considered a possession... so in other words if you didn't take a shot, didn't make an assist, and didn't go to the line you didn't participate in the offense at all? By this numbers Ginobili turns the ball over as often as Rondo, or less than him... do you truely believe that when Rondo has a hand on the ball in pretty much every play when he's on the floor?

What else are you going to use?   Shots, free throws, assists, and turnovers are easily a mechanism to show how much you touch the ball especially when you are comparing across positions.  Are you really trying to suggest that Tony Allen has more "non shot, assist, and turnover" touches than Ginobilil?

Just because the statistic shows that Tony Allen is worse, doesn't mean it is irrelevant.   

Anyways, by that stat Ginobili is 50th in the league among SG's while being among the top FGA + FTA players... it still shows he's quite a turnover machine.

Just not as bad as Tony Allen who is a considerably less effective offensive player. 

If Tony Allen were putting up a 24+ PER instead of a 10.7 PER ranking in the 300's in the league, I might have a different attitude towards him.   

Personally, I felt he was one of the worst options we could pick up, but we still have some of the MLE to play with.

I really don't care if Ginobili turns the ball over more or not than Tony. My problem is with you trying to argue that Ginobili doesn't turn the ball over at a high rate.

Again, read the context of what I said in the last page. I was showing that a player turning the ball over at a high rate is not the end-all discussion it has been made out to be to judge Tony.

[CoachBo]

Turnovers vary widely - from creators trying to make a play - see Manu - to dribbling the ball off your foot in the open floor - see Tony.

When we paint ourselves into a corner where resigning Tony Allen is our best option, then things clearly aren't going well in the off-season. Hard for me to see any signs whatsoever that the light is suddenly going to go on between his ears and he'll begin playing anything but the brain-dead basketball we've grown accustomed to from him.

Hobbs gets another TP for accuracy: The hyperbole about Tony is out of control. I understand the love for Danny: he did a great job putting last year's club together.

But the reality is that there are some HUGE chances that have already been taken, and we've already got a diminished bench unless there's something that can be done via trade.

[TradeProposalDude]

5 pages and still no tommy points from this thread? I've given some for crying out loud!

j/k

In my observation, most people are on the fence with Tony, as are most people in this thread. While they think he has the capability of breaking out again next year, the setbacks he's had in conjunction with his well documented lack of regular IQ could very well inhibit any conceivable progress.

Even devoid of his freakish athleticism, Tony has shown me he can play, because he has an above average handle, and an undeniable instinct to finishing around the rim. He is a slasher and a darn good one at that.

To me, defense has never been his problem. He's way better than bums like Greg Buckner who focus solely on the defensive end of the ball. Tony can be a devastating two way player if his head is on straight.

And by the tone and overall mojo of this thread, no one seems to know how it'll work out with him.

[BballTim]

Because it's not an accurate picture of what is considered a possession... so in other words if you didn't take a shot, didn't make an assist, and didn't go to the line you didn't participate in the offense at all? By this numbers Ginobili turns the ball over as often as Rondo, or less than him... do you truely believe that when Rondo has a hand on the ball in pretty much every play when he's on the floor?

What else are you going to use?   Shots, free throws, assists, and turnovers are easily a mechanism to show how much you touch the ball especially when you are comparing across positions.  Are you really trying to suggest that Tony Allen has more "non shot, assist, and turnover" touches than Ginobilil?

  I don't think he's saying more "non shot, assist, and turnover" touches than Ginobili, just a higher percentage.

Anyways, by that stat Ginobili is 50th in the league among SG's while being among the top FGA + FTA players... it still shows he's quite a turnover machine.

Just not as bad as Tony Allen who is a considerably less effective offensive player. 

If Tony Allen were putting up a 24+ PER instead of a 10.7 PER ranking in the 300's in the league, I might have a different attitude towards him.   

Personally, I felt he was one of the worst options we could pick up, but we still have some of the MLE to play with (which is a benefit).   

Otherwise, I would have preferred Matt Barnes OR Maurice Evans AND I don't like Barnes.

  Tony Allen is far superior to those guys defensively. Since we had reasonably good luck emphasizing defense last year I don't know that we want to get away from it.

[wdleehi]

I worry about how he does coming off the bench.  The only time he was consistent was when he was starting every game.  



That TA can help this team.  The TA we saw last year will mean the Celtics need to upgrade that spot off the bench.