WEEI: Unnamed team willing to offer Posey 4th year

[winsomme]

i just wanted to isolate one other thing in your post.

all the side monetary benefits of not signing Vinatieri and replacing him with draft pick would have been paltry if we had lost a huge playoff game because of a shanked FG attempt.

that is why i have said that the strategy is only as good as the replacement and that is why when it doesn't work like with the receivers, they change course.

and unlike the Pats with Brady, the Cs don't have the same window of opportunity.

  This thing you're not seeing is that the Pats make a few decisions like this every year. Each decision seems like a good risk at the time but sooner or later one of the choices is bound to fail. Could have been Vinateri, could have been the receivers, could have been Corey Dillon or Milloy or anyone else. But they still do what they're doing even though at some point it will cost them a title because if they don't they won't be able to contend for any titles.

i'm not condemning the strategy as whole. i pointing out the differences in the situations amongst the Pats, the Sox and the Cs....

i'm also pointing out that the strategy is more dynamic than simply setting a price tag on guy that is independent of external factors and not budging off that price.

and still further pointing out that even a team like the Pats recognizes when it just flat out doesn't work like with the receiving crew in 06-07....

i have never said that we can't win next season without Posey. nor have i said that Posey will be as good 5 years from now as he was last season.....but i put a premium on next season with GPA and if we can't get a solid replacement for Posey, i think that going the extra years to get the best shot at another Title should be a big factor in making that decision.

hopefully there is a middle ground here...

[Truth Hurts]

It's almost as if Danny wants to be Theo Epstein now. When we sucked, it was OK to lock up huge dollars in Scalabrine, Blount, Lafrentz..etc....but now, when we have the best team in basketball, we are going to let an important cog walk over relative peanuts?

Could it be that Danny learned from his mistakes?  I mean, we lost out on Brandon Roy to shave just one season off Raef's contract. 

Also, keep in mind we have no idea what Danny's budget is, or what he's been told about unrestrained spending in the future.  Ownership's willingness to go over the luxury tax may not extend forever, and I'm sure Danny doesn't want to see the team fall apart.

Whatever Danny's budget is, I don't think he really needs to be overly concerned with having KG and Posey under contract for about $27 million in 2012 as his only obligations.

Let me ask everyone this:

Let's say the Celtics paid Posey the full MLE for four years. You get to be a fly on the wall in the offices of all the GMs of other contenders in the league. Do you envision these guys jumping up and down, shouting "YES!!! Boston just tied up $7 million for 2012 in a player that may only be worth $2.5 million that year! WOO HOO!!!!!"

I think a bit more realistic reaction would be "Oh, $hit.... the defending Champs just increased their chances of winning the next three titles by paying a good player that frustrates my guys market value."

Or another question:

How would you feel if the Lakers traded Odom for Artest, and gave him a ridiculous 8 year, $100 million extension? Would you be celebrating the Lakers lack of fiscal responsibility? Or would you start dreading the thought of a another Celts/Lakers finals with the Lakers having a front line of Bynum, Gasol and Artest? Maybe more than one more finals? the 80s teams played three times.

[Roy Hobbs]

How would you feel if the Lakers traded Odom for Artest, and gave him a ridiculous 8 year, $100 million extension? Would you be celebrating the Lakers lack of fiscal responsibility? Or would you start dreading the thought of a another Celts/Lakers finals with the Lakers having a front line of Bynum, Gasol and Artest? Maybe more than one more finals? the 80s teams played three times.

I would be saying "how did the Lakers violate the CBA to give an 8 year deal?" 

To fans, a championship justifies any amount of money spent.  To ownership, that's not necessarily the case.  While I have no doubt that ownership is committed to this team winning another championship, they also need to be able to run a viable business long-term.  That means making sound business decisions at all times.

Plus, why give four years, when it's very likely that three will get this done?  Danny doesn't seem too scared at the moment, which means he's either confident that 1) Posey will sign for three years, or 2) he can find a replacement.

[BballTim]

i just wanted to isolate one other thing in your post.

all the side monetary benefits of not signing Vinatieri and replacing him with draft pick would have been paltry if we had lost a huge playoff game because of a shanked FG attempt.

that is why i have said that the strategy is only as good as the replacement and that is why when it doesn't work like with the receivers, they change course.

and unlike the Pats with Brady, the Cs don't have the same window of opportunity.

  This thing you're not seeing is that the Pats make a few decisions like this every year. Each decision seems like a good risk at the time but sooner or later one of the choices is bound to fail. Could have been Vinateri, could have been the receivers, could have been Corey Dillon or Milloy or anyone else. But they still do what they're doing even though at some point it will cost them a title because if they don't they won't be able to contend for any titles.

i'm not condemning the strategy as whole. i pointing out the differences in the situations amongst the Pats, the Sox and the Cs....

i'm also pointing out that the strategy is more dynamic than simply setting a price tag on guy that is independent of external factors and not budging off that price.

and still further pointing out that even a team like the Pats recognizes when it just flat out doesn't work like with the receiving crew in 06-07....

  The Pats recognized that they made a miscalculation with the receivers, not that the system doesn't work. They've certainly let players go in the same fashion since then.

  And the reciever issue wasn't a case of the Pats system failing. It was a case of the Pats being stupid and arrogant. They could have kept Branch on the roster that year at a reasonable price. They waited until every team had their roster pretty much set for the season and then made a big show of telling Branch to go out and get an offer for big money. It was a foolish miscalculation.

[winsomme]

It's almost as if Danny wants to be Theo Epstein now. When we sucked, it was OK to lock up huge dollars in Scalabrine, Blount, Lafrentz..etc....but now, when we have the best team in basketball, we are going to let an important cog walk over relative peanuts?

Could it be that Danny learned from his mistakes?  I mean, we lost out on Brandon Roy to shave just one season off Raef's contract. 

Also, keep in mind we have no idea what Danny's budget is, or what he's been told about unrestrained spending in the future.  Ownership's willingness to go over the luxury tax may not extend forever, and I'm sure Danny doesn't want to see the team fall apart.

I was about to say the same thing.  I hate this argument of "well, you messed up before, why stop now?"

It is a good thing that Danny clearly figured out how the cap works.  Over the last few years (yes, not just since getting KG, he started working the cap about 3 years ago), he has completely changed his strategy, and realized that in order to keep your team from falling into cap hell (see: NY), you need to be planning years down the line.  That is why he did the Ratliff/Lafrentz deal, and that is why I don't expect him to budge on the 4th year here.

i haven't looked at this too closely, but i'm not sure in the NBA "staying competitive" is necessarily the best way to build a champion. i'd have to go back and look at the Title teams. how integral is having down seasons in building a champion in the NBA. it seems to me at first glance that it is more necessary in the NBA than in the NFL and MLB.

and there certainly are very good franchises that are competitive every year but never make it over the hump. i mean would you trade 10 decent seasons for a Title season?

i would bet fans in Utah would.

[P2]

I can't stand Posey anymore. This money chasing son of a (expletive) is not loyal to the Celtics with this behavior, because if he really wanted to stay, he wouldn't have opted out, or would've at least taken our best offer before July 9. But it's not only that - he also keeps us waiting so that we are losing out on other free agents in case Big Cash James doesn't re-sign. Honestly, I've already lost all my respect for him, no matter how much he helped/would help us.

[BballTim]

How would you feel if the Lakers traded Odom for Artest, and gave him a ridiculous 8 year, $100 million extension? Would you be celebrating the Lakers lack of fiscal responsibility? Or would you start dreading the thought of a another Celts/Lakers finals with the Lakers having a front line of Bynum, Gasol and Artest? Maybe more than one more finals? the 80s teams played three times.

  I'd be waiting for Artest to blow up if his scoring average dipped below 20 points a game.
 

[Chris]

How would you feel if the Lakers traded Odom for Artest, and gave him a ridiculous 8 year, $100 million extension? Would you be celebrating the Lakers lack of fiscal responsibility? Or would you start dreading the thought of a another Celts/Lakers finals with the Lakers having a front line of Bynum, Gasol and Artest? Maybe more than one more finals? the 80s teams played three times.

I would be laughing at the Lakers stupidity for overpaying for someone.

I laughed at the Magic last year for giving up all of their cap flexibility in the foreseeable future by drastically overpaying Lewis.  Lewis made them a better team...but he also may have prevented them from taking that next step.

I am laughing at Golden State for doing the exact same thing with Maggette, and now Turiaf.

If the Spurs, Cavs, or Pistons went out and gave Posey 5 years at the full MLE, I would laugh at them for vastly overpaying someone who doesn't guarantee them anything, but ties them up in the future.  But you know what?  The Spurs and Pistons wouldn't do that, because they are both smart enough to realize that is not how you stay on top.

I am a strong believer that the only way to be successful in the NBA (other than lottery luck...and as Orlando and Cleveland show, that only takes you so far, if you don't combine it with capology) is to be fiscally responsible, and plan ahead well.  The C's did that over the last couple of years, which allowed them to get KG.  The Sixers did it, which allowed them to get Brand.  As soon as you start throwing around money, and not worrying about the consequences, you are in a lot of trouble.

[winsomme]

i just wanted to isolate one other thing in your post.

all the side monetary benefits of not signing Vinatieri and replacing him with draft pick would have been paltry if we had lost a huge playoff game because of a shanked FG attempt.

that is why i have said that the strategy is only as good as the replacement and that is why when it doesn't work like with the receivers, they change course.

and unlike the Pats with Brady, the Cs don't have the same window of opportunity.

  This thing you're not seeing is that the Pats make a few decisions like this every year. Each decision seems like a good risk at the time but sooner or later one of the choices is bound to fail. Could have been Vinateri, could have been the receivers, could have been Corey Dillon or Milloy or anyone else. But they still do what they're doing even though at some point it will cost them a title because if they don't they won't be able to contend for any titles.

i'm not condemning the strategy as whole. i pointing out the differences in the situations amongst the Pats, the Sox and the Cs....

i'm also pointing out that the strategy is more dynamic than simply setting a price tag on guy that is independent of external factors and not budging off that price.

and still further pointing out that even a team like the Pats recognizes when it just flat out doesn't work like with the receiving crew in 06-07....

  The Pats recognized that they made a miscalculation with the receivers, not that the system doesn't work. They've certainly let players go in the same fashion since then.

  And the reciever issue wasn't a case of the Pats system failing. It was a case of the Pats being stupid and arrogant. They could have kept Branch on the roster that year at a reasonable price. They waited until every team had their roster pretty much set for the season and then made a big show of telling Branch to go out and get an offer for big money. It was a foolish miscalculation.

so why can't we simply say that not giving Posey the 4th year is also a miscalculation without saying that the "value" system to paying players as a whole is bad?

[Chris]

I can't stand Posey anymore. This money chasing son of a (expletive) is not loyal to the Celtics with this behavior, because if he really wanted to stay, he wouldn't have opted out, or would've at least taken our best offer before July 9. But it's not only that - he also keeps us waiting so that we are losing out on other free agents in case Big Cash James doesn't re-sign. Honestly, I've already lost all my respect for him, no matter how much he helped/would help us.

OK, this is extreme.  Posey is doing whats right for him.  This is his best chance to get that one big contract before his career ends.  He doesn't owe this franchise anything.  He has every right to test the waters...in fact, he would be doing a disservice to his family.  Its not like he would be giving up just a little money by not opting out, or taking the first offer, he would be potentially giving up anywhere from 5 to 20 million dollars (depending on whether someone gives him 5 years, and whether the rumors of the $12 million offer is true).

[timepiece33]

i just wanted to isolate one other thing in your post.

all the side monetary benefits of not signing Vinatieri and replacing him with draft pick would have been paltry if we had lost a huge playoff game because of a shanked FG attempt.

that is why i have said that the strategy is only as good as the replacement and that is why when it doesn't work like with the receivers, they change course.

and unlike the Pats with Brady, the Cs don't have the same window of opportunity.

  This thing you're not seeing is that the Pats make a few decisions like this every year. Each decision seems like a good risk at the time but sooner or later one of the choices is bound to fail. Could have been Vinateri, could have been the receivers, could have been Corey Dillon or Milloy or anyone else. But they still do what they're doing even though at some point it will cost them a title because if they don't they won't be able to contend for any titles.

i'm not condemning the strategy as whole. i pointing out the differences in the situations amongst the Pats, the Sox and the Cs....

i'm also pointing out that the strategy is more dynamic than simply setting a price tag on guy that is independent of external factors and not budging off that price.

and still further pointing out that even a team like the Pats recognizes when it just flat out doesn't work like with the receiving crew in 06-07....

i have never said that we can't win next season without Posey. nor have i said that Posey will be as good 5 years from now as he was last season.....but i put a premium on next season with GPA and if we can't get a solid replacement for Posey, i think that going the extra years to get the best shot at another Title should be a big factor in making that decision.

hopefully there is a middle ground here...

Totally agree and the mechanism to secure potential replacements in the NFL and MLB is much easier than the NBA based on the current operating rules of the leagues.   

I'd love for them to be even remotely comparable, however they are not close. 

I'm all for treating players as commodities AND being financially prudent, but that would mean more moves like Ricky Davis.   Not considering potential replacements seems like the wrong thing to do considering our current age of our stars.  The window is what it is. Disregarding that point is a mistake.

[winsomme]

i just wanted to isolate one other thing in your post.

all the side monetary benefits of not signing Vinatieri and replacing him with draft pick would have been paltry if we had lost a huge playoff game because of a shanked FG attempt.

that is why i have said that the strategy is only as good as the replacement and that is why when it doesn't work like with the receivers, they change course.

and unlike the Pats with Brady, the Cs don't have the same window of opportunity.

  This thing you're not seeing is that the Pats make a few decisions like this every year. Each decision seems like a good risk at the time but sooner or later one of the choices is bound to fail. Could have been Vinateri, could have been the receivers, could have been Corey Dillon or Milloy or anyone else. But they still do what they're doing even though at some point it will cost them a title because if they don't they won't be able to contend for any titles.

i'm not condemning the strategy as whole. i pointing out the differences in the situations amongst the Pats, the Sox and the Cs....

i'm also pointing out that the strategy is more dynamic than simply setting a price tag on guy that is independent of external factors and not budging off that price.

and still further pointing out that even a team like the Pats recognizes when it just flat out doesn't work like with the receiving crew in 06-07....

i have never said that we can't win next season without Posey. nor have i said that Posey will be as good 5 years from now as he was last season.....but i put a premium on next season with GPA and if we can't get a solid replacement for Posey, i think that going the extra years to get the best shot at another Title should be a big factor in making that decision.

hopefully there is a middle ground here...

Totally agree and the mechanism to secure potential replacements in the NFL and MLB is much easier than the NBA based on the current operating rules of the leagues.   

I'd love for them to be even remotely comparable, however they are not close. 

I'm all for treating players as commodities AND being financially prudent, but that would mean more moves like Ricky Davis.   Not considering potential replacements seems like the wrong thing to do considering our current age of our stars.  The window is what it is. Disregarding that point is a mistake.

right there with you.

if GPA were all 26-27 and signed for 4 more years, then we could afford to make a mistake on a role player for a season. i don't think we have that luxury with GPA in their 30s....at least i would rather not risk it.

[Roy Hobbs]

I can't stand Posey anymore. This money chasing son of a (expletive) is not loyal to the Celtics with this behavior, because if he really wanted to stay, he wouldn't have opted out, or would've at least taken our best offer before July 9. But it's not only that - he also keeps us waiting so that we are losing out on other free agents in case Big Cash James doesn't re-sign. Honestly, I've already lost all my respect for him, no matter how much he helped/would help us.

OK, this is extreme.  Posey is doing whats right for him.  This is his best chance to get that one big contract before his career ends.  He doesn't owe this franchise anything.  He has every right to test the waters...in fact, he would be doing a disservice to his family.  Its not like he would be giving up just a little money by not opting out, or taking the first offer, he would be potentially giving up anywhere from 5 to 20 million dollars (depending on whether someone gives him 5 years, and whether the rumors of the $12 million offer is true).

Yeah, agreed.  This is a free market.  I don't begrudge Posey for looking out for his future.

Let's be clear on "loyalty":  this guy isn't a lifetime Celtics, drafted and developed by the team.  He was a one-year mercenary signed to a "make good" contract.  He "made good" in a big way, and now wants to get paid.  With two rings on his resume', I can't blame him.  I'd like to see him stay here on a three year deal, but if another team will offer four or five years, more power to him.

[P2]

I can't stand Posey anymore. This money chasing son of a (expletive) is not loyal to the Celtics with this behavior, because if he really wanted to stay, he wouldn't have opted out, or would've at least taken our best offer before July 9. But it's not only that - he also keeps us waiting so that we are losing out on other free agents in case Big Cash James doesn't re-sign. Honestly, I've already lost all my respect for him, no matter how much he helped/would help us.

OK, this is extreme.  Posey is doing whats right for him.  This is his best chance to get that one big contract before his career ends.  He doesn't owe this franchise anything.  He has every right to test the waters...in fact, he would be doing a disservice to his family.  Its not like he would be giving up just a little money by not opting out, or taking the first offer, he would be potentially giving up anywhere from 5 to 20 million dollars (depending on whether someone gives him 5 years, and whether the rumors of the $12 million offer is true).

He doesn't owe us anything, but he can't expect that we'll still treat him as if nothing happened. After all, he opted out and didn't accept our offer. How would you feel if somebody treated you as ignorantly? Would you still want him, or would you realize that he makes no commitments to this franchise and instead chases the money?

[winsomme]

It's almost as if Danny wants to be Theo Epstein now. When we sucked, it was OK to lock up huge dollars in Scalabrine, Blount, Lafrentz..etc....but now, when we have the best team in basketball, we are going to let an important cog walk over relative peanuts?

Could it be that Danny learned from his mistakes?  I mean, we lost out on Brandon Roy to shave just one season off Raef's contract. 

Also, keep in mind we have no idea what Danny's budget is, or what he's been told about unrestrained spending in the future.  Ownership's willingness to go over the luxury tax may not extend forever, and I'm sure Danny doesn't want to see the team fall apart.

Whatever Danny's budget is, I don't think he really needs to be overly concerned with having KG and Posey under contract for about $27 million in 2012 as his only obligations.

Let me ask everyone this:

Let's say the Celtics paid Posey the full MLE for four years. You get to be a fly on the wall in the offices of all the GMs of other contenders in the league. Do you envision these guys jumping up and down, shouting "YES!!! Boston just tied up $7 million for 2012 in a player that may only be worth $2.5 million that year! WOO HOO!!!!!"

I think a bit more realistic reaction would be "Oh, $hit.... the defending Champs just increased their chances of winning the next three titles by paying a good player that frustrates my guys market value."

Or another question:

How would you feel if the Lakers traded Odom for Artest, and gave him a ridiculous 8 year, $100 million extension? Would you be celebrating the Lakers lack of fiscal responsibility? Or would you start dreading the thought of a another Celts/Lakers finals with the Lakers having a front line of Bynum, Gasol and Artest? Maybe more than one more finals? the 80s teams played three times.

these are great points here TH.

we really need to maximize GPA because it just doesn't happen that often that you can get guys like them together.