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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #60 on: May 26, 2008, 01:42:16 AM »

Offline Hoops

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It's the Eastern Conference finals.

WAY too late to be rotating in a player who makes mental mistakes by the bunches, including on the defensive end where some here VASTLY overrate his abilities.

We're trying to win a title, not give pity time to a guy who's proven, IMHO, he doesn't belong out there. I understand the attachment. People still want to bring Gerald Green back, for reasons I will never agree with.

But it's time to give it up. Time to fill that roster spot with a better, smarter player.

I haven't followed this whole thread, but I think you have to distinguish between the pre-injury Allen and the post-injury Allen. The pre-injury Allen may have been a little young and inexperienced, but he was a quality defender and was on a path to becoming a stellar lock-down defender. The post-injury Allen hasn't been nearly as good. Will he ever return to form? We don't know. But from what I understand of his knee injury, this season was really just a recuperation year for him. Next year is the year that we should see if he'll really be able to return to form.

Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #61 on: May 26, 2008, 02:26:19 AM »

Offline blueygreen

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I would like him to get time now to look towards the future. Not because I think the Detroit series will be a cakewalk, but we still have to look to the finals. A cold Tony isn't going to play well against Kobe/Manu. He did a stellar job on both Kobe during the regular season, and I don't remember much of him against the spurs, except he did a good job of not letting Manu draw a foul. After that, I'm one of those people that finds him a good player, but realistically he could well be dropped.

Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #62 on: May 26, 2008, 03:36:04 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

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It's the Eastern Conference finals.

WAY too late to be rotating in a player who makes mental mistakes by the bunches, including on the defensive end where some here VASTLY overrate his abilities.

We're trying to win a title, not give pity time to a guy who's proven, IMHO, he doesn't belong out there. I understand the attachment. People still want to bring Gerald Green back, for reasons I will never agree with.

But it's time to give it up. Time to fill that roster spot with a better, smarter player.

I haven't followed this whole thread, but I think you have to distinguish between the pre-injury Allen and the post-injury Allen. The pre-injury Allen may have been a little young and inexperienced, but he was a quality defender and was on a path to becoming a stellar lock-down defender. The post-injury Allen hasn't been nearly as good. Will he ever return to form? We don't know. But from what I understand of his knee injury, this season was really just a recuperation year for him. Next year is the year that we should see if he'll really be able to return to form.

I'll partially buy the injury explanation more on the offensive end, that it's certainly going to be a major issue when a slasher-type loses a significant portion of his explosiveness to the rim.  But on the defensive end, what you discount is the importance of basketball IQ to becoming a truly solid defender -- something TA has never had.  If you're going to hit the roof on every up-fake, all the explosiveness in the world will only be worth so much.

CoachBo's analysis is spot on.  Well played as always, Bo.

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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #63 on: May 26, 2008, 04:10:01 AM »

Offline Bahku

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I'm still a half-full kind of guy, and despite the obvious cluster of flaws in Tony's game and head, I'd rather focus on what the guy's positive contributions could be, in lieu of making him as valuable as possible for trade negotiations in the future. The more he's neglected/down-played, the less of a prospect he'll be to other teams. (There's more dimensions to this than meets the eye)
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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #64 on: May 26, 2008, 08:53:53 AM »

Offline Casperian

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It's the Eastern Conference finals.

WAY too late to be rotating in a player who makes mental mistakes by the bunches, including on the defensive end where some here VASTLY overrate his abilities.

We're trying to win a title, not give pity time to a guy who's proven, IMHO, he doesn't belong out there. I understand the attachment. People still want to bring Gerald Green back, for reasons I will never agree with.

But it's time to give it up. Time to fill that roster spot with a better, smarter player.

I haven't followed this whole thread, but I think you have to distinguish between the pre-injury Allen and the post-injury Allen. The pre-injury Allen may have been a little young and inexperienced, but he was a quality defender and was on a path to becoming a stellar lock-down defender. The post-injury Allen hasn't been nearly as good. Will he ever return to form? We don't know. But from what I understand of his knee injury, this season was really just a recuperation year for him. Next year is the year that we should see if he'll really be able to return to form.

Tony Allen will become 27 next season, how much improvement do you expect? And as others pointed out, a big part of his problems have to do with his low bball IQ. At his age, you either have it or you don`t, you can`t expect a sudden turnaround. I mean, his injury was bad, but how much time do you give this guy on a team with a 3-year-window to win it all?

I would like him to get time now to look towards the future. Not because I think the Detroit series will be a cakewalk, but we still have to look to the finals. A cold Tony isn't going to play well against Kobe/Manu. He did a stellar job on both Kobe during the regular season, and I don't remember much of him against the spurs, except he did a good job of not letting Manu draw a foul. After that, I'm one of those people that finds him a good player, but realistically he could well be dropped.

I think we should focus on the ECF first, and there´s simply no time or space for Tony just to find his groove back. Additionally, I think we don`t need 12 men in the playoffs. As I said, 8-9 men is the ideal amount of rotation players, imo. I already have my problems with Doc`s rotations, and I don`t want to see him experimenting with the lineups just to prepare Tony for a possible Finals appearance.

I'm still a half-full kind of guy, and despite the obvious cluster of flaws in Tony's game and head, I'd rather focus on what the guy's positive contributions could be, in lieu of making him as valuable as possible for trade negotiations in the future. The more he's neglected/down-played, the less of a prospect he'll be to other teams. (There's more dimensions to this than meets the eye)

I think we´re all aware of the other dimensions you`ve pointed out, Bahku. After all, that`s how we got KG. The thing is, we are not the 20-win-Celtics anymore. There`s simply no need to showcase our scrubs just to get value out of them.

1. We are a top-destination for every FA or vet who wants to win a ring.

2. Players on winning teams are always worth more than players on losing teams. You always find someone who is willing to pay more than he should just to acquire players from a top team. We´re not talking about Scal. Tony played meaningful minutes during the regular season, and I´m certain there are already a hand full of GMs in the league who feel they could need a player like him.

Again, the ECF is not the time or place to showcase our scrubs, imo.  ;)
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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #65 on: May 26, 2008, 09:22:14 AM »

Offline Brickowski

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It's not about showcasing scrubs.  It's about putting TA on Rodney Stuckey (or Billups or Hamilton)instead of the inept Cassell and the undersized Eddie House.  It's about winning a championship.

Cassell gives up two baskets for every one he scores, and has also been tuirnover prone. He has no business being on the floor.  I'll take TA over Cassell any day of the week (except in end-of-game situations where the other team has to foul).

If they make it to the finals they are going to need TA to cover Kobe or Manu if they expect to win.  The Lakers and Spurs aren't one-trick ponies like the Cavs.  Those Western Conference teams have other guys who will kill you if you try to stack the defense to stop one guy.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2008, 09:27:42 AM by Brickowski »

Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #66 on: May 26, 2008, 09:25:43 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

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It's the Eastern Conference finals.

WAY too late to be rotating in a player who makes mental mistakes by the bunches, including on the defensive end where some here VASTLY overrate his abilities.

We're trying to win a title, not give pity time to a guy who's proven, IMHO, he doesn't belong out there. I understand the attachment. People still want to bring Gerald Green back, for reasons I will never agree with.

But it's time to give it up. Time to fill that roster spot with a better, smarter player.

I haven't followed this whole thread, but I think you have to distinguish between the pre-injury Allen and the post-injury Allen. The pre-injury Allen may have been a little young and inexperienced, but he was a quality defender and was on a path to becoming a stellar lock-down defender. The post-injury Allen hasn't been nearly as good. Will he ever return to form? We don't know. But from what I understand of his knee injury, this season was really just a recuperation year for him. Next year is the year that we should see if he'll really be able to return to form.

Tony Allen will become 27 next season, how much improvement do you expect? And as others pointed out, a big part of his problems have to do with his low bball IQ. At his age, you either have it or you don`t, you can`t expect a sudden turnaround. I mean, his injury was bad, but how much time do you give this guy on a team with a 3-year-window to win it all?

I would like him to get time now to look towards the future. Not because I think the Detroit series will be a cakewalk, but we still have to look to the finals. A cold Tony isn't going to play well against Kobe/Manu. He did a stellar job on both Kobe during the regular season, and I don't remember much of him against the spurs, except he did a good job of not letting Manu draw a foul. After that, I'm one of those people that finds him a good player, but realistically he could well be dropped.

I think we should focus on the ECF first, and there´s simply no time or space for Tony just to find his groove back. Additionally, I think we don`t need 12 men in the playoffs. As I said, 8-9 men is the ideal amount of rotation players, imo. I already have my problems with Doc`s rotations, and I don`t want to see him experimenting with the lineups just to prepare Tony for a possible Finals appearance.

I'm still a half-full kind of guy, and despite the obvious cluster of flaws in Tony's game and head, I'd rather focus on what the guy's positive contributions could be, in lieu of making him as valuable as possible for trade negotiations in the future. The more he's neglected/down-played, the less of a prospect he'll be to other teams. (There's more dimensions to this than meets the eye)

I think we´re all aware of the other dimensions you`ve pointed out, Bahku. After all, that`s how we got KG. The thing is, we are not the 20-win-Celtics anymore. There`s simply no need to showcase our scrubs just to get value out of them.

1. We are a top-destination for every FA or vet who wants to win a ring.

2. Players on winning teams are always worth more than players on losing teams. You always find someone who is willing to pay more than he should just to acquire players from a top team. We´re not talking about Scal. Tony played meaningful minutes during the regular season, and I´m certain there are already a hand full of GMs in the league who feel they could need a player like him.

Again, the ECF is not the time or place to showcase our scrubs, imo.  ;)


TP, Casperian for a well-stated explanation.

You too, Bahku, for the continued optimism with TA.

I understand both sides, but I'm continuing to lean in the direction Casperian advances on this one.

-sw


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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #67 on: May 26, 2008, 09:56:58 AM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Cassell gives up two baskets for every one he scores, and has also been tuirnover prone.

During the playoffs, the team is only giving up 2.1 extra points for every 100 possessions when Sam is on the court versus when he's on the bench.  His defense has been poor, but overall, the defense is masking his deficiencies. 

As for Sam being turnover-prone, that's just not true.  He's averaging 0.5 turnovers per game he's played in, and his high is 2 turnovers, which he had once.

Quote
If they make it to the finals they are going to need TA to cover Kobe or Manu if they expect to win.  The Lakers and Spurs aren't one-trick ponies like the Cavs.  Those Western Conference teams have other guys who will kill you if you try to stack the defense to stop one guy.

This team has won plenty of games without Tony Allen this season.  In the two games against LA this season, he played amazingly in one, and mediocre in the other (with the team getting outscored by 7 in his stint). 

Our defense does a good job limiting the production of opposing guards, no matter who in there.  The production of opposing SGs isn't that much different with Ray in the game than it is with Tony in there (2.2 fewer points per 48 minutes allowed by Tony).  On the other hand, our offense is quite a bit more effective with Tony on the bench.  The net-effect of Tony is a negative one, and that's when he's sharp.  I can't imagine how it'd look right now if you threw him out there rusty, although I think you got a glimpse in Game 2's debacle (where we were outscored by 10 in 4.5 minutes).

If we want to win, Tony's butt should be planted on the bench.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2008, 10:20:51 AM by Roy Hobbs »

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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #68 on: May 26, 2008, 10:18:15 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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Cassell gives up two baskets for every one he scores, and has also been tuirnover prone.

During the playoffs, the team is only giving up 2.1 extra points for every 100 possessions when Sam is on the court versus when he's on the bench.  His defense has been poor, but overall, the defense is masking his deficiencies. 

As for Sam being turnover-prone, that's just not true.  He's averaging 0.5 turnovers per game he's played in, and his high is 2 turnovers, which he had once.

Quote
If they make it to the finals they are going to need TA to cover Kobe or Manu if they expect to win.  The Lakers and Spurs aren't one-trick ponies like the Cavs.  Those Western Conference teams have other guys who will kill you if you try to stack the defense to stop one guy.

This team has won plenty of games without Tony Allen this season.  In the two games against LA this season, he played amazingly in one, and mediocre in the other (with the team getting outscored by 7 in his stint). 

Our defense does a good job limiting the production of opposing guards, no matter who in there.  The production of opposing SGs isn't that much different with Ray in the game than it is with Tony in there (2.2 fewer points per 48 minutes allowed by Tony).  On the other hand, our offense is quite a bit more effective with Tony on the bench.  The net-effect of Tony is a negative one, and that's when he's sharp.  I can't imagine how it'd look right now if you threw him out there rusty, although I think you got a glimpse in Game 2's debacle (where we were outscored by 10 in 4.5 minutes).

If we want to win, Tony's butt should be planted on the bench.

Looking at the season-long defensive production of our team

Another TP. The numbers simply don't back up the assertions.

My conclusion at this point is that Sam ought to make a brief two-minute appearance early to get his feet wet, then a couple of four-minute stretches later in the game. It looks to me like his stretches of minutes were too long early in the playoffs. Sam should be getting seven to 10 minutes, tops, in this series.

Tony might actually develop into an average player with extended minutes on a team where winning doesn't matter. I really don't see his intelligence and his injuries permitting anything more than that.

But we don't have the minutes to risk, and the numbers prove it pretty clearly. Tony has clearly played his way off this club, IMHO, and it's foolish to waste minutes on him, especially now.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2008, 10:24:07 AM by CoachBo »
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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #69 on: May 26, 2008, 10:23:27 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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Cassell gives up two baskets for every one he scores, and has also been tuirnover prone.

During the playoffs, the team is only giving up 2.1 extra points for every 100 possessions when Sam is on the court versus when he's on the bench.  His defense has been poor, but overall, the defense is masking his deficiencies. 

As for Sam being turnover-prone, that's just not true.  He's averaging 0.5 turnovers per game he's played in, and his high is 2 turnovers, which he had once.

Quote
If they make it to the finals they are going to need TA to cover Kobe or Manu if they expect to win.  The Lakers and Spurs aren't one-trick ponies like the Cavs.  Those Western Conference teams have other guys who will kill you if you try to stack the defense to stop one guy.

This team has won plenty of games without Tony Allen this season.  In the two games against LA this season, he played amazingly in one, and mediocre in the other (with the team getting outscored by 7 in his stint). 

Our defense does a good job limiting the production of opposing guards, no matter who in there.  The production of opposing SGs isn't that much different with Ray in the game than it is with Tony in there (2.2 fewer points per 48 minutes allowed by Tony).  On the other hand, our offense is quite a bit more effective with Tony on the bench.  The net-effect of Tony is a negative one, and that's when he's sharp.  I can't imagine how it'd look right now if you threw him out there rusty, although I think you got a glimpse in Game 2's debacle (where we were outscored by 10 in 4.5 minutes).

If we want to win, Tony's butt should be planted on the bench.

Looking at the season-long defensive production of our team
Great post, Roy. You saved me a ton of time having to look up numbers to prove that Tony Allen is indeed ineffective. Save me time, TP4U.

I just don't understand the love for Tony just because, from what I've seen on the floor, he's a liability. Now besides my own visual observations, Roy now shows that there are stats to back it up.

Tony needs to sit, watch his teammates lock up a championship, enjoy the invite to the banner raising and ring giving ceremony, and enjoy showing off his new ring to all his new teammates next year.

He's been given four years to prove his worth and his worth isn't great enough to justify using him in any of the following games or does it justify reupping him next year.

I really was high on Tony to begin the year and defended him, but this year turned me off and now he's gotta go.

Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #70 on: May 26, 2008, 10:32:48 AM »

Offline Brickowski

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The numbers are skewed bnecause of how Tony Allen has been misused. You can't expect him to have 3-4 DNP-CDs in a row and then expect him to be effective.

One of the main reasons they'vve been able to win without TA is Posey, who can take some of the tough defensive assignments.  But players like Kobe, Ginobili and Stuckey are too quick for Posey.

Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #71 on: May 26, 2008, 10:59:08 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

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The numbers are skewed bnecause of how Tony Allen has been misused. You can't expect him to have 3-4 DNP-CDs in a row and then expect him to be effective.

One of the main reasons they'vve been able to win without TA is Posey, who can take some of the tough defensive assignments.  But players like Kobe, Ginobili and Stuckey are too quick for Posey.

But more dangerously, they are also too savvy for Tony.

Team defenses can help a perimeter defender who is getting out-quicked by his man.  They can't do much with a guy who keeps sending his man to the line before he ever reaches the lane.

I think we're starting to go in circles here.  It's clear that there are two conflicting company lines on TA, and I'm not sure there's a resolution coming on this.

If he is in the game, here's hoping he contributes.  If he isn't involved, I'm certainly not killing Doc for it.

TP to Roy for a great post earlier.

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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #72 on: May 26, 2008, 11:03:21 AM »

Offline liam

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The numbers are skewed bnecause of how Tony Allen has been misused. You can't expect him to have 3-4 DNP-CDs in a row and then expect him to be effective.

One of the main reasons they'vve been able to win without TA is Posey, who can take some of the tough defensive assignments.  But players like Kobe, Ginobili and Stuckey are too quick for Posey.

You're right, so he shouldn't play.

Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #73 on: May 26, 2008, 10:02:28 PM »

Offline Steve Weinman

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Re: Tony Allen: What's The Answer?
« Reply #74 on: May 26, 2008, 10:10:54 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Pertinent line from Jeff Van Gundy tonight: "Fouling negates hustle."

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What does JVG say about mishandling rebounds off of missed free throws?

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