Shams: Celtics Sign Jordan Walsh to 3 Year/$15 Million Deal

[Celtics2021]

Yes, it might interest people to know (or maybe they don't want to know  ) that with Jordan's signing we are now at $219m in committed salary for 2027-28, with 12 players:

(click to enlarge)


The thresholds for next season are (est):

Salary cap: $174m
Luxury tax: $211.5m
1st apron: $220.5m
2nd apron: $234m

So barring any trades where we ship out more salary than we bring in, we will be a taxpaying team next year and most likely a first apron team.  UNLESS PG13 doesn't pick up his $56.6m player option, which honestly he would be crazy not to,  unless they negotiated an extension that maybe gives him more overall money but a lower average annual value.

Or it's possible they could trade him and take less money in and create a TPE, we are allowed to do that, if we can find a room or taxpaying team with the right mix of player/s and as long as they're not over the aprons i.e. they aren't prevented by salary matching on their end.

Or we might send out Hauser and or/Walsh, Walsh is now a tradeable contract especially if we want to aggregate him.

But the point I wanted to make is that, given the non-discretionary spend he has coming up in the next 2 seasons after this one, the chance of Brad exceeding the tax line by $1-2m to pick up Beal on a vet min is probably zero. Because that would be we would be unable to reset our repeater rate unless he does something really drastic in 2027-28+ that would cripple our team, and Beal's $2.4m vet min would possibly end up costing us $30-50m+ next year in tax due to not resetting. Pretty sure the dude's not worth that 

This is the year to reset the tax, we need to not be a taxpayer for 2 of the last 4 seasons to reset it. It's one of those things where we probably thing who cares, Bill said he greenlighted Brad to spend money, but it would be poor management for them to go over it (by a small amount, showing poor planning) and get penalized in future years for a player that won't move the needle for us anyway,

Unless, as Celtics2021 said, they sign him and then move someone at the deadline to get under the tax. The number they would sign him to would then matter, the lower the better.

One other thing to note about the tax is that the rates have changed from the last CBA, and some of those changes have gone into effect only last season.  The repeater tax, which used to be an extra $1 for $1 tax added to your spending above the luxury tax line doubled to now be a $2 for $1 tax.  So the marginal cost of being in the repeater tax is substantially higher than it used to be.  Secondly, the tax rates have lowered for teams in the first two brackets, from $1.50 and $1.75 per dollar to $1.00 and $1.25 per dollar.  So entering the tax a little is less painful than it was before if it does not bring you into the repeater tax, or set it for the following season.  Lastly, the tax brackets have widened.  Whereas they used to be set at $5 million, they now increase the same percentage as the cap every year, and so are currently a little north of $6 million (around $6.2 million I think but I cannot find an exact number.  TP to anyone who does).

The net effect of this is that the Celtics have a lot more to save by ducking under the tax this year compared to next, as oz has just said.  The Celtics are on pace to be around $13 million over the tax in 2027-2028, or right around where the second bracket ends.  With a reset repeater, that would be about a $15 million tax bill, or the same tax bill they would have if they went $5 million over the tax this year.  With less of a bite from the entry levels of the tax, there is less incentive to avoid it every season.  So if we see the Celtics making desperate moves to get out of the tax next year, then we know ownership is officially cheap.  But as the league has made the marginal cost of the repeater tax so high, this year it makes a lot of sense to avoid, as it did last year.

[Csfan1984]

Yes, it might interest people to know (or maybe they don't want to know  ) that with Jordan's signing we are now at $219m in committed salary for 2027-28, with 12 players:

(click to enlarge)


The thresholds for next season are (est):

Salary cap: $174m
Luxury tax: $211.5m
1st apron: $220.5m
2nd apron: $234m

So barring any trades where we ship out more salary than we bring in, we will be a taxpaying team next year and most likely a first apron team.  UNLESS PG13 doesn't pick up his $56.6m player option, which honestly he would be crazy not to,  unless they negotiated an extension that maybe gives him more overall money but a lower average annual value.

Or it's possible they could trade him and take less money in and create a TPE, we are allowed to do that, if we can find a room or taxpaying team with the right mix of player/s and as long as they're not over the aprons i.e. they aren't prevented by salary matching on their end.

Or we might send out Hauser and or/Walsh, Walsh is now a tradeable contract especially if we want to aggregate him.

But the point I wanted to make is that, given the non-discretionary spend he has coming up in the next 2 seasons after this one, the chance of Brad exceeding the tax line by $1-2m to pick up Beal on a vet min is probably zero. Because that would be we would be unable to reset our repeater rate unless he does something really drastic in 2027-28+ that would cripple our team, and Beal's $2.4m vet min would possibly end up costing us $30-50m+ next year in tax due to not resetting. Pretty sure the dude's not worth that 

This is the year to reset the tax, we need to not be a taxpayer for 2 of the last 4 seasons to reset it. It's one of those things where we probably thing who cares, Bill said he greenlighted Brad to spend money, but it would be poor management for them to go over it (by a small amount, showing poor planning) and get penalized in future years for a player that won't move the needle for us anyway,

Unless, as Celtics2021 said, they sign him and then move someone at the deadline to get under the tax. The number they would sign him to would then matter, the lower the better.

One other thing to note about the tax is that the rates have changed from the last CBA, and some of those changes have gone into effect only last season.  The repeater tax, which used to be an extra $1 for $1 tax added to your spending above the luxury tax line doubled to now be a $2 for $1 tax.  So the marginal cost of being in the repeater tax is substantially higher than it used to be.  Secondly, the tax rates have lowered for teams in the first two brackets, from $1.50 and $1.75 per dollar to $1.00 and $1.25 per dollar.  So entering the tax a little is less painful than it was before if it does not bring you into the repeater tax, or set it for the following season.  Lastly, the tax brackets have widened.  Whereas they used to be set at $5 million, they now increase the same percentage as the cap every year, and so are currently a little north of $6 million (around $6.2 million I think but I cannot find an exact number.  TP to anyone who does).

The net effect of this is that the Celtics have a lot more to save by ducking under the tax this year compared to next, as oz has just said.  The Celtics are on pace to be around $13 million over the tax in 2027-2028, or right around where the second bracket ends.  With a reset repeater, that would be about a $15 million tax bill, or the same tax bill they would have if they went $5 million over the tax this year.  With less of a bite from the entry levels of the tax, there is less incentive to avoid it every season.  So if we see the Celtics making desperate moves to get out of the tax next year, then we know ownership is officially cheap.  But as the league has made the marginal cost of the repeater tax so high, this year it makes a lot of sense to avoid, as it did last year.

Given the cap status I'd look at dealing White and Hauser for Jordan Pool, TPE and two first (2028 1st, 2031 1st). That clears a lot of cap and adds picks to go with stock pile to move PG in 2027 for a top player and still remain under tax to use Full MLE and future extend PP. If Hugo and Cenac develop you are targeting a Center for trade in 2027.

[Vermont Green]

Everyone is summing things up pretty well, and I agree in general:

   1.  BOS will stay under the tax this season to reset
   2.  BOS will pay tax next season, maybe even go over the 1st apron

Of the 12 contracts, 9 are locked in, 2 are team options (Hugo at $3.0M and Baylor at $5.0) plus Paul George is a player option at $56.6M.  I would say 99% sure that BOS picks up Hugo and 99.99999% sure George picks up his player option, but Baylor at $5.0M may not be picked up, there could be vet mins available that offer more value.

Every owner that I have heard (or seen reported) is saying the same thing, we will spend but we will not go over the 2nd apron.  They are all quoting the same message (yes, I am implying that this is not by accident).  They have all accepted the 2nd apron as a hard cap.  For BOS, that was true for the previous owners and is true for the new owners.

So that results in a $20M range if you are over the tax and under the 2nd apron.  The range for BOS is even smaller since they are already projecting to be over the tax next season.  For BOS, their "discretionary" spending will only be in the $5M to $10M range for 2027-28, as things stand.  They can increase this by trading Hauser or not picking up Baylor.  I don't think White is going anywhere.  I guess Queta or "Clank" Robinson could be traded off, but I don't see either as likely.

[Roy H.]

Baylor at $5.0M may not be picked up, there could be vet mins available that offer more value

Unless there's major regression I think they're a lock to pick up that option.  They are giving Walsh about as much, and BS has shown more than Walsh to date.

[Celtics2021]

Baylor at $5.0M may not be picked up, there could be vet mins available that offer more value

Unless there's major regression I think they're a lock to pick up that option.  They are giving Walsh about as much, and BS has shown more than Walsh to date.

Yeah, if there was even a scintilla of truth to the rumor that not including Baylor in the Giannis trade was one of the things that led Milwaukee to trade with Miami, then there is zero chance they will not pick up his option 4 months later.  It is possible that Walsh and Hugo both leveled up their games this summer such that they wind up clearly ahead of Baylor in the rotation, in which case they might look for a trade for cost-controlled help at another position, or acquire picks and promote a 2-way guy, but unless he has a horrible off-court incident, his option is getting picked up.

[Vermont Green]

Baylor at $5.0M may not be picked up, there could be vet mins available that offer more value

Unless there's major regression I think they're a lock to pick up that option.  They are giving Walsh about as much, and BS has shown more than Walsh to date.

For now, sure, I agree that this should be the working assumption.  He is a decent value at that contract.  But it is not just about whether Scheierman regresses (I don't expect him to regress), if he levels off but Walsh, Hugo, Harper or someone else improves, could get to a place where Baylor is expendable.  Dillon Mitchell is in that mix also, or may be by next season.

Hauser is lower hanging fruit of this group of "random wings" as he makes the most.  Baylor is probably next on the list due to the convenience of it just being a team option and he is the next biggest contract.  Of course, they could also use a 2nd round pick and trade off Walsh or Harper.  But I stand by my statement, Scheierman may not get picked up (meaning there is a reasonable chance that he won't).  I don't see it as a "lock" they pick this up, guys like Scheierman are very interchangeable.  A vet min, a rookie, MAY bump him.