An Early Look at Next Year's Cap

[Roy H.]

Roster:

Tatum
Brown
White
Hauser
Pritchard
Gonzalez
Scheierman
Garza
Queta
Walsh
Williams

Salaries:  $180,193,863 (includes $1,366,314 roster charge for 12th man)

Pending Free Agent:  Vucevic
First round pick: Currently tied 26th

Luxury tax line: $201,690,485  ($21,496,622 under)
First Apron: $210,330,000 ($30,136,622 under)
Second Apron: $223,081,000 ($42,887,622 under)

Realistically, it looks like the easiest plan will be to resign Vucevic, add a first rounder, and sign our second rounder, keeping the 15th slot open.  We've got $21,496,622 + the $1,366,314 roster charge to do that, meaning a combined $22,862,936.

Thinking out loud, let's assume Vucevic signs for $11 million in his first year.
The first rounder will have a cap hit of $3,086,520 (120% of rookie scale)
Second rounder:  $1,434,630 (projected rookie minimum)

Remainder:  $12,651,890

That means, in theory, we could use most of the non-taxpayer's MLE and bring in a free agent making around $12.6 million, even if we bring back the existing roster and also use both draft picks.  There are other combos, such as trading the #2 and bringing back Ron Harper, Jr., etc. 

The point is, if Vuc comes back at something reasonable, we'll still have money for a pretty reasonable upgrade.  (That's assuming my math is correct, haha).

[slamtheking]

I think you're being a tad optimistic in thinking how much of a cut Vuc will take.  If he's good fit for the team the rest of the season, I would be very surprised if he doesn't ask for a starting salary between 16-18 mill.

[wdleehi]

I think you're being a tad optimistic in thinking how much of a cut Vuc will take.  If he's good fit for the team the rest of the season, I would be very surprised if he doesn't ask for a starting salary between 16-18 mill.

I think 11 may be a lot.   That he would get that amount for trade purposes. 


Horford got 5.6 million last year. 

Lopez got 8.8 million last year.

Looney - 8 million

Capela - 7 million

Only Kornet got close to 11  (10 million)

(Turner is a different class got 27 million)

So older C are not breaking the bank in this new CBA.   Especially watching all these teams work so hard to stay under the Apron and tax.

[keevsnick]

Your money is slightly off. The 180.19 million dollar number DOES NOT include any empty roster charges. SPOTRAC makes it seem like the empty roster charge is included, but it's not. The 180.19 is the total outlay for the 11 guys under contract. That number leaves you about 21.5 million under the projected tax with 3 open roster spots.

If the C's keep those 11 guys and fill spots 12 and 13 with their first-round pick and second round pick making a combined 4.5 million they'd have 17 million in space under the tax to fill that final roster spot.

They could use that a number of ways. Re-signing Vuc, using the full non-tax MLE, using part of their giant TPE, or declining Jordan Walsh's option to make him a RFA and sign him to a new contract.

But 17 million total is about what they'd have if they use their draft picks. Slightly more if they traded their 1st, slightly less if they traded their 2nd and signed a vet min guy instead.

My guess is they'll try to use most of that on ONE guy. Either giving Vuc a two-year deal, or an MLE guy on a three-year deal. That would give them a tradeable mid-level  contract they could use for salary matching in summer of 2027.

Worth Noting: this is with a projected cap of 166 million. If the cap goes up more than that they'll have extra wiggle room.

[ozgod]

Here's the Celtics cap situation for the next 5 years, including this season, from Spotrac. As you can see the big spend will happen in 2027-28 when we have to extend Garza, Walsh and Queta from their $2.5m vet mins. Scheierman becomes extension eligible that year, and Gonzalez the year after. Also next year Pritchard becomes extension eligible, if he signs one it's going to be something in the $20m range I would imagine, which would hit in 2027-28.

So next year is the last year we can really have a cost-controlled squad, if we want to reset the tax we need to be under it next year as well, so that when 2027-28 comes and those big extensions kick in we are not paying a high repeater rate. Because we will definitely be over the tax, and probably the first apron at least, and maybe even the 2nd, when 2027-28 arrives, and for the next few years after that. I think that's the time they push their chips to the center of the table.

(click to enlarge)

[Celtics2021]

Here's the Celtics cap situation for the next 5 years, including this season, from Spotrac. As you can see the big spend will happen in 2027-28 when we have to extend Garza, Walsh and Queta from their $2.5m vet mins. Scheierman becomes extension eligible that year, and Gonzalez the year after. Also next year Pritchard becomes extension eligible, if he signs one it's going to be something in the $20m range I would imagine, which would hit in 2027-28.

So next year is the last year we can really have a cost-controlled squad, if we want to reset the tax we need to be under it next year as well, so that when 2027-28 comes and those big extensions kick in we are not paying a high repeater rate. Because we will definitely be over the tax, and probably the first apron at least, and maybe even the 2nd, when 2027-28 arrives, and for the next few years after that. I think that's the time they push their chips to the center of the table.

(click to enlarge)

Pritchard?s extension will hit in 2028-2029.  But yes, the Celtics should stay below the tax next year as the following few years they are likely to wind up above it, perhaps substantially so.

[Celtics2021]

As to the larger point, we will see how Vucevic fits here, of course.  I think he will be helpful, but I am not convinced he is more than a rental.  I could very much see Brad leaving the team with a lot of room between the cap and the tax to make moves at the deadline.  With the large Simons exception we could make a real splash during the crazy season that occurs, either in getting future picks for taking on a contract someone wants to move or getting in on whatever team is blowing things apart next deadline.  (I have my eyes on Trey Murphy III, who makes a very convenient $27 million).

If Vooch comes in and winds up our starting center playing 25-30 minutes in a finals run, then I take it back.  But I think he will wind up being a 15-minute guy as part of a three-big platoon.