Path to 2026 Contention

[smicker16]

Okay I have been thinking about how we can realistically get to contention next season.  I am still enjoying watching this year but I think we can all be realistic that we are not going to be able to contend for a championship this year.

The way I see it we have two spots we need to fill in our top 10 rotation and to not expect too much progress from others it likely needs to be two players in our top 5 to avoid putting too much on Tatum, Brown, White or the development of guys like Hugo, Queta, etc.

I feel that one has to come from a trade using the KP TPE and some future picks.  I think this is realistic to hope for and expect for.  The most unrealistic part about this is hoping that our number 1 pick next year can slot in as our 5th best player.  That is going to take a lot of luck to happen and why I do think it is valuable to tank this year as bad as that sounds.  I just think expecting Pritchard, Hauser, Hugo or Minott to be a top 5 player on a championship team is asking a bit too much.  With Queta, the potential is there for him to be Rob Williamsesque but even that I did not want to count on.

1.     Tatum
2.   Brown
3.   White
4.   Trade acquisition (use KP TPE and 2 future 1sts for a legit impact player on the level of Jrue or KP) - likely should be a big man and do not have any ideas but should be able to find someone with this type of package!
5.   Rookie draft pick (this results in us getting lucky with an impact player in year 1, but also tanking a bit this year) - can be any position
6.   Pritchard
7.   Queta
8.   Hauser
9.   Minott
10.   Hugo
11.   Vet big man free agent MLE

All this to say I do see a very clear path to contending next year and it really takes one lucky draft pick and does not need to be a top 5 player in the league but just on the team.  I feel this is realistic, but open to hearing other thoughts and opinions.  Just to talk myself into some hope and already feeling better about this with the play of Queta, Minott and Hugo to be able to be in that 6-10 range on the team. 

[keevsnick]

Realistically the path to contention is something like this:

1) Tatum comes back close to 100% of what he was before the injury, in other words somewhere in the 5-8 range of NBA players.
-I feel pretty good about this one.

2) Some combo of Hugo/Walsh/Scheierman/Minott step up to become at least rotation players. I'd improve Queta on this list, but honestly I'm already sold that he's at least a backup big, maybe better.
-Minott looking great, Hugo looking promising, Walsh/Scheierman have shown flashes.

3) The Celtics use Anfernee Simons salary slot to get another big man.

So the question really is how do they do #3? They actually have a few paths. Right now they have a 22.5 million dollar TPE from the Porzingis trade, if they were to simply let Simons expire they could use that TPE to bring back a center making less than that amount. Some options include:

Zubac (19.55), Poeltl (19.5), Carter Jr (18.1), Gafford (17.3), Aldama (17.1), Onkongwu (16.1), Stewart (15.0).

Now of course some of those won't be available but depending on how their teams play this year a few of those guys probably will be. They could also "expand" the TPE by trading Simons and taking back salary into the Porzingis TPE. That would generate a new TPE for the value of Simon's contract, about 27.7 million. If they did that they could add:

Turner (26.6), Reid (23.3) and Claxton (23.3) to the list of targets.

They could also use the TPE in a S&T. That would open up free agents options such as:

Porzingis, Horford, Robinson, Nurkic, Kessler, Hartenstein, Vucevic, Mark Williams, Rob Williams amongst others.

Some of those guys (namely Porzingis) may be out of the TPE price range, but the others are probably gettable. If they don't use the TPE's they'd be far enough under the 1st apron to use probably all of the non-tac mid-level, that's a lower number (starts around 16 million) than the TPE but you don't require cooperation from another team to use it.

They have assets left to trade. At the draft they could package their 2026 1st, 2027 1st, 2031 1st, 2033 1st, 2030 swap, 2032 swap. So they would have 4 tradeable firsts and 2 tradeable swaps. More than enough to get a solid starting center.

This is why I just don't think things are as dire as some people seem to. Alot of their issues are solved a healthy Tatum and one more solid big man, and a solid big man should be pretty easily achievable. 

[slamtheking]

Okay I have been thinking about how we can realistically get to contention next season.  I am still enjoying watching this year but I think we can all be realistic that we are not going to be able to contend for a championship this year.

The way I see it we have two spots we need to fill in our top 10 rotation and to not expect too much progress from others it likely needs to be two players in our top 5 to avoid putting too much on Tatum, Brown, White or the development of guys like Hugo, Queta, etc.

I feel that one has to come from a trade using the KP TPE and some future picks.  I think this is realistic to hope for and expect for.  The most unrealistic part about this is hoping that our number 1 pick next year can slot in as our 5th best player.  That is going to take a lot of luck to happen and why I do think it is valuable to tank this year as bad as that sounds.  I just think expecting Pritchard, Hauser, Hugo or Minott to be a top 5 player on a championship team is asking a bit too much.  With Queta, the potential is there for him to be Rob Williamsesque but even that I did not want to count on.

1.     Tatum
2.   Brown
3.   White
4.   Trade acquisition (use KP TPE and 2 future 1sts for a legit impact player on the level of Jrue or KP) - likely should be a big man and do not have any ideas but should be able to find someone with this type of package!
5.   Rookie draft pick (this results in us getting lucky with an impact player in year 1, but also tanking a bit this year) - can be any position
6.   Pritchard
7.   Queta
8.   Hauser
9.   Minott
10.   Hugo
11.   Vet big man free agent MLE

All this to say I do see a very clear path to contending next year and it really takes one lucky draft pick and does not need to be a top 5 player in the league but just on the team.  I feel this is realistic, but open to hearing other thoughts and opinions.  Just to talk myself into some hope and already feeling better about this with the play of Queta, Minott and Hugo to be able to be in that 6-10 range on the team.

2 things:
1. you've overlooked the primary option for bringing in someone that can improve the roster -- trading Simons at the deadline for hopefully either a starting-quality big man or at least someone as good as Queta that can play PF, center or both.  Brad may pull a bookkeeping move to bring in a player into the KP TPE and create a TPE in the same deal for Simons salary slot but the team will still be moving Simons.
2. If you're planning on giving away picks, you can bet any team we deal with is going to want this year's pick if we're tanking.  you're not going to get a "legit impact player" with TPE money and a couple of future firsts that'll occur when the team is planning to be pretty good.  Our best options at that point, which will likely be the Simons TPE instead of the KP TPE are either taking someone overpaid but still productive that another team wants to unload or we just sit tight on our pick if it's in the lottery and use it as a building block.  PP as a starter may end up working out for us as the year goes on and that new pick can fill out the bench.

[smicker16]

Okay I have been thinking about how we can realistically get to contention next season.  I am still enjoying watching this year but I think we can all be realistic that we are not going to be able to contend for a championship this year.

The way I see it we have two spots we need to fill in our top 10 rotation and to not expect too much progress from others it likely needs to be two players in our top 5 to avoid putting too much on Tatum, Brown, White or the development of guys like Hugo, Queta, etc.

I feel that one has to come from a trade using the KP TPE and some future picks.  I think this is realistic to hope for and expect for.  The most unrealistic part about this is hoping that our number 1 pick next year can slot in as our 5th best player.  That is going to take a lot of luck to happen and why I do think it is valuable to tank this year as bad as that sounds.  I just think expecting Pritchard, Hauser, Hugo or Minott to be a top 5 player on a championship team is asking a bit too much.  With Queta, the potential is there for him to be Rob Williamsesque but even that I did not want to count on.

1.     Tatum
2.   Brown
3.   White
4.   Trade acquisition (use KP TPE and 2 future 1sts for a legit impact player on the level of Jrue or KP) - likely should be a big man and do not have any ideas but should be able to find someone with this type of package!
5.   Rookie draft pick (this results in us getting lucky with an impact player in year 1, but also tanking a bit this year) - can be any position
6.   Pritchard
7.   Queta
8.   Hauser
9.   Minott
10.   Hugo
11.   Vet big man free agent MLE

All this to say I do see a very clear path to contending next year and it really takes one lucky draft pick and does not need to be a top 5 player in the league but just on the team.  I feel this is realistic, but open to hearing other thoughts and opinions.  Just to talk myself into some hope and already feeling better about this with the play of Queta, Minott and Hugo to be able to be in that 6-10 range on the team.

2 things:
1. you've overlooked the primary option for bringing in someone that can improve the roster -- trading Simons at the deadline for hopefully either a starting-quality big man or at least someone as good as Queta that can play PF, center or both.  Brad may pull a bookkeeping move to bring in a player into the KP TPE and create a TPE in the same deal for Simons salary slot but the team will still be moving Simons.
2. If you're planning on giving away picks, you can bet any team we deal with is going to want this year's pick if we're tanking.  you're not going to get a "legit impact player" with TPE money and a couple of future firsts that'll occur when the team is planning to be pretty good.  Our best options at that point, which will likely be the Simons TPE instead of the KP TPE are either taking someone overpaid but still productive that another team wants to unload or we just sit tight on our pick if it's in the lottery and use it as a building block.  PP as a starter may end up working out for us as the year goes on and that new pick can fill out the bench.

I guess I just see us using either Simons as salary filler or the KP TPE but not both.  Would love to be wrong but think we would have to attach all of our future firsts to be able to get impact players back in both trades.  Maybe we could trade Simons for our 9th or 10th man but nothing to really move the needle without also attaching 1sts to it.  I also am still not sure ownership is going to be looking to bring back in 40-50 million in salary by when trading those two but we can see.

As for what teams would want, yes of course teams could ask for our pick this year but my hope is that it is top 5 and in this draft I do not think it is reasonable for a team to ask for that pick for the 4th or 5th best player on a team.  Now yes, if we wanted to go after someone like Giannis sure but that is a whole different level. 

I think if we ask PP to be the starter, then we are going to need White, Tatum or Brown to improve from where they were in our title winning year to be contenders and I do not see that happening that is why I want to try and slot him into a spot similar to when we won the title which avoids us putting more on Tatum, Brown or White. 

Either way though I very much see an option to being a true contender next year and maybe we are able to get a positive player back for Simons and the TPE which would be great.

[Celtics4ever]

I would trade White for rotational players that can help, keep Simmons try to sign him to a similar contract if not trade at the trade deadlline.  Add a decent draft pick Wing or Forward (depending on how Tatum looks) and look forward to Tatum coming back.

1) Simmons
2) Brown
3) Draft a wing or Minnot may be here and the draft pick off the bench
4)Tatum slotting him here in case he is slower
5)Queta


Bench
Pritchard
Hauser
Gonzales
Minnot
Garza


Adding Garza, and Minot will help our Bench

A lot will depend on who we can get for White or Simmons.

I would offer several of our second round picks to try to move up in the beginning of the second round.

White is starting to worry me, a lot.   I know it is early and the season is long.  But will his trade value not be higher. 

I don't think we are going to get a Desmond Bane kind of offer for either Simmons or White.

[smicker16]

Realistically the path to contention is something like this:

1) Tatum comes back close to 100% of what he was before the injury, in other words somewhere in the 5-8 range of NBA players.
-I feel pretty good about this one.

2) Some combo of Hugo/Walsh/Scheierman/Minott step up to become at least rotation players. I'd improve Queta on this list, but honestly I'm already sold that he's at least a backup big, maybe better.
-Minott looking great, Hugo looking promising, Walsh/Scheierman have shown flashes.

3) The Celtics use Anfernee Simons salary slot to get another big man.

So the question really is how do they do #3? They actually have a few paths. Right now they have a 22.5 million dollar TPE from the Porzingis trade, if they were to simply let Simons expire they could use that TPE to bring back a center making less than that amount. Some options include:

Zubac (19.55), Poeltl (19.5), Carter Jr (18.1), Gafford (17.3), Aldama (17.1), Onkongwu (16.1), Stewart (15.0).

Now of course some of those won't be available but depending on how their teams play this year a few of those guys probably will be. They could also "expand" the TPE by trading Simons and taking back salary into the Porzingis TPE. That would generate a new TPE for the value of Simon's contract, about 27.7 million. If they did that they could add:

Turner (26.6), Reid (23.3) and Claxton (23.3) to the list of targets.

They could also use the TPE in a S&T. That would open up free agents options such as:

Porzingis, Horford, Robinson, Nurkic, Kessler, Hartenstein, Vucevic, Mark Williams, Rob Williams amongst others.

Some of those guys (namely Porzingis) may be out of the TPE price range, but the others are probably gettable. If they don't use the TPE's they'd be far enough under the 1st apron to use probably all of the non-tac mid-level, that's a lower number (starts around 16 million) than the TPE but you don't require cooperation from another team to use it.

They have assets left to trade. At the draft they could package their 2026 1st, 2027 1st, 2031 1st, 2033 1st, 2030 swap, 2032 swap. So they would have 4 tradeable firsts and 2 tradeable swaps. More than enough to get a solid starting center.

This is why I just don't think things are as dire as some people seem to. Alot of their issues are solved a healthy Tatum and one more solid big man, and a solid big man should be pretty easily achievable.

Thanks for providing those names as that gives even more hope to being able to contend again next year seeing some of those potential options.  And yes, I do think we are in a good space asset wise to be able to retool this offseason a bit.

[Vermont Green]

So soon to be already planning for next season.  But fair.  I have been thinking about 2026-27 since Tatum went down.

As to the roster, I think we have a very good start with Tatum, Brown, and White as the top 3 starters.  Then I think the main rotation bench is shaping up fine with Pritchard, Hauser, Queta, and Minott (slots 6-9).  The deeper bench can be Hugo, Garza, Boucher, and so on (10-12 or so).

That means the team is short two starters, in my ideal world.  Our key trade assets are Simons and the 2026 first round pick.  I believe that the TMLE will be available (although this would hard cap the team at the 2nd apron).  I think these are enough assets to get a 4th and a 5th starter.  It could be a wing and a center (keeping Tatum as the PF) or it could be a PF and a Center (allowing Tatum to go back to wing).  It could even be a PG/Combo guard and a big.  There is a lot of flexibility due to the versatility of the top 3 expected starters.

[wdleehi]

I think one more 20-25 minute big man that can be part of the rotation. 


I like the young (cheap contract) depth that is starting to show at each position.   

Keep the top 3.   Trade Simons for that big man or for pieces to add together with other pieces for the big man.   

[Vermont Green]

I don't think we are going to get a Desmond Bane kind of offer for either Simmons or White.

Interesting, I think White is better than Bane and that BOS could get similar value.  But I would not trade White for a bunch of draft picks.  BOS needs to "win now" in 2026-27.  You don't trade White for picks if you are trying to win now.

I would not be totally opposed to trading White or Brown or anyone short of Tatum, but only if you get back even better win now players.

[Ilikesports17]

So soon to be already planning for next season.  But fair.  I have been thinking about 2026-27 since Tatum went down.

As to the roster, I think we have a very good start with Tatum, Brown, and White as the top 3 starters.  Then I think the main rotation bench is shaping up fine with Pritchard, Hauser, Queta, and Minott (slots 6-9).  The deeper bench can be Hugo, Garza, Boucher, and so on (10-12 or so).

That means the team is short two starters, in my ideal world.  Our key trade assets are Simons and the 2026 first round pick.  I believe that the TMLE will be available (although this would hard cap the team at the 2nd apron).  I think these are enough assets to get a 4th and a 5th starter.  It could be a wing and a center (keeping Tatum as the PF) or it could be a PF and a Center (allowing Tatum to go back to wing).  It could even be a PG/Combo guard and a big.  There is a lot of flexibility due to the versatility of the top 3 expected starters.

I agree with most of this. I dont think those assets are enough to really go get two starters. I think we really need to get more development out of Queta, Minott, and Hugo. If Hugo can become your 9th man and queta or Minott can slide up to your 5th starter. It becomes way easier to package firsts with Simons to get that 4th starter.

Getting two starters with limited resources is going to be difficult.

[Moranis]

As I've said elsewhere, I actually think the best option to contention is to trade Brown (maybe White) and to go into full on tank mode.  I think that is the best option because it is the best way to get assets to trade and/or young players to build around.  I do think the 10 year run with Tatum and Brown is over without hitting in the lottery this summer. 10 years is a long time in the NBA, it was a great run, but it is over in my view as none of Tatum, Brown, or White will ever be as good as they have been in the past. Frankly, I don't see them as being good enough without several other really good players and I see no real way to get those players without a tank.