NBA Season 2025-26

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Cleveland has played 0 games this year with their full rotation available, but they are tracking to have everyone available for game 1 on Saturday. They also have a top ten defensive and offensive rating against the 10 best teams this year.  They coasted more against the middle and bottom of the league bringing their overall rating down. 

So if they are truly healthy and they do stay focused, they should at least make the ECF as they have a deeper team than the Pistons and way more talent than the Raptors or whoever the 8 seed ends up as.  I don't think they are a good matchup for Boston though. I'd expect Boston to win that series if they do end up playing in the ECF, but anyone else Cleveland should be favored.

I do like the talent and the fit of the Cavs team, but time and time again we see how important it is for a team to have played together for a while and be comfortable together before they can compete at an elite level in the playoffs.

You are arguing that the fact they haven't played together indicates they will play at an even higher level in the playoffs. I would argue the other way.

[Who]

Cleveland has played 0 games this year with their full rotation available, but they are tracking to have everyone available for game 1 on Saturday. They also have a top ten defensive and offensive rating against the 10 best teams this year.  They coasted more against the middle and bottom of the league bringing their overall rating down. 

So if they are truly healthy and they do stay focused, they should at least make the ECF as they have a deeper team than the Pistons and way more talent than the Raptors or whoever the 8 seed ends up as.  I don't think they are a good matchup for Boston though. I'd expect Boston to win that series if they do end up playing in the ECF, but anyone else Cleveland should be favored.

Why do you think that?

I am having trouble telling who should be favoured in a Celtics vs Cavs matchup. I see them as the 2 top teams by far in the East.

Based upon how Harden played against us in 2023 in the playoffs, I'm not all that worried about Cleveland.  Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard here, but he had games where he was 2-for-14, 3-for-14, 4-for-16 and 3-for-11.  He had two good games, out of seven.

Mitchell scares me more, but we match up with them very well.

Mitchell is the killer.

We can contain Harden if we could focus on Harden but Mitchell will detract from that focus. We can't load up on Harden defensively because Mitchell can kill us. I wonder if that will make Harden more effective against us this season than he was for Philly in that series.

The other Harden factor I wonder about is can he make E Mobley and J Allen more effective. We have been good in shutting the down as have other teams in the playoffs. NY had success. Indy had success. Now Cleveland in James Harden have a true playmaker who can create easy baskets for them and keep them more involved on offense. How successful Harden can be in doing that is a big unknown because they haven't played enough together to know what to expect.

In theory, Darius Garland should have been able to do that playmakin for CLE also but he failed in the playoffs. Repeatedly.

-------

Small signs

* E Mobley post ASG = 23 games 18.6ppg 9.5rpg 2.8apg. Only slightly up on pre-ASG averages but was doing so in less minutes (33mpg to 29mpg) and far more efficiently. He upped his FG% from 51% to 61%.

* J Allen = only 13 games 17.8ppg 9.2rpg 68.5% FG 69% TS. Solid bump in efficiency from 62% FG 66% TS but a big bump in scoring from 14ppg to 18ppg. J Allen has always been a good roll man & finisher. Now he has a guard in Harden who is one of the best in the league at finding roll men (Clint Capela in HOU).

It is hard to know what to make of that because the sample size is so small. It could be a small difference, a medium difference or a large difference. I have no idea.

------------------

Harden does scare me more than Darius Garland did.

That is another factor. Garland and that small backcourt was a defensive weakness BOS used to feast on. It is not a small backcourt anymore. D Mitchell has good size for a PG, Harden good size for a wing. Another weakness taken away.

Garland and D Mitchell often played hero ball on offense against BOS. Mitchell did so effectively. Garland was inconsistent but more off than on which is also a good description of his playoff record. Harden will keep looking to feed the bigs more than Garland / Mitchell did. Harden may make them more of a factor than they have been in the past.

I don't know what to make of this CLE team but they do worry me. They are the only team in the East that worry me.

[Who]

Portland could be a surprise team in the play-in / playoffs.

I view them more as a 55 win team than as the 42 team they were on the season. That squad was blighted with injuries which suppressed their win total. But they are relatively healthy entering the post-season so they could pose a much tougher out than most are expecting.

G: Jrue (53 gms), Scoot (30 gms)
G: Shaedon Sharpe (50 gms)
F: Toumani Camara
F: Avdija (66 gms), Jerami Grant (57 gms)
C: D Clingan, Rob Williams (59 gms)

All those guys are healthy heading into the postseason. Well J Grant is day-to-day to end the regular season but gotta figure after a week's rest he'll be ready to go for Round 1.

Blake Wesley is back as well. He was their next guard up while Scoot Henderson was injured early in the season before getting hurt himself and missing most of the campaign. Only 31 games played. That is a strong 9 man rotation. Kris Murray as well. That is their top 10 guys who are healthy at the right time.

Pity they will be facing OKC or SAS in the 1st round. I'd be more bullish on their chances if they had an easier opponent.

[Vermont Green]

With CLE, it is all about health.  All of their big 3, Mitchell, Harden, Mobley, have had past issues staying healthy for a full playoff run.  They wear down.  With that in mind, the later BOS plays them the better.  It worked out that if this happens, it would be in the ECF.  Hopefully by then, they are plenty worn down.

But if they do have their full team healthy, they are plenty formidable.  They were healthy and won 64 games last season, and have gotten better by trading Garland and getting Harden back.  As noted, they did not have anything close to their whole team this season and their regular season record reflected this.  Plus they kind of coasted, or so it seemed.

To me, it is not so much about how BOS can match up, it is that they can be very good.

[Goldstar88]

Ball and Hornets general manager Jeff Peterson were on their way to the renowned Hospital for Special Surgery for the point guard?s season-ending arthroscopic surgeries on his right wrist and ankle. As their town car cruised up the near-empty New York City streets, Peterson asked Ball for his input on some potential lottery draft targets. The point guard?s attention turned toward a highly touted Duke prospect.

Although Cooper Flagg was the consensus can?t-miss prospect, Ball was talking up Kon Knueppel to the Hornets GM. Ball had watched Duke play during the season and told Peterson how savvy he thought the forward was. He was struck by Knueppel?s basketball IQ and understanding of the game -- impressive even for a five-star prospect. And of course, there was Knueppel?s elite shooting.

Ball?s astute scouting report was before Charlotte even knew where it would be drafting. The Hornets learned in the draft lottery a month later that they would have the fourth pick, which they eventually used on Knueppel.

He?s spot on with those traits, Peterson told ESPN of that break-of-dawn draft breakdown. He was very detailed in his evaluation of why he liked him. That was even more impressive that he was able to kind of highlight him because there were some other guys that he didn?t highlight.

He may have a future in the front office if he wants.

A year later, Ball is having the most successful season of his career. And Knueppel, whose historic first season could lead to Rookie of the Year honors, has been a revelation and the perfect player to unlock Ball?s and the Hornets potential.

[Moranis]

Cleveland has played 0 games this year with their full rotation available, but they are tracking to have everyone available for game 1 on Saturday. They also have a top ten defensive and offensive rating against the 10 best teams this year.  They coasted more against the middle and bottom of the league bringing their overall rating down. 

So if they are truly healthy and they do stay focused, they should at least make the ECF as they have a deeper team than the Pistons and way more talent than the Raptors or whoever the 8 seed ends up as.  I don't think they are a good matchup for Boston though. I'd expect Boston to win that series if they do end up playing in the ECF, but anyone else Cleveland should be favored.

Why do you think that?

I am having trouble telling who should be favoured in a Celtics vs Cavs matchup. I see them as the 2 top teams by far in the East.

The Cavs biggest weakness is wing defense. They simply cannot guard Tatum or Brown let alone both.  Boston beat them all 3 times this year.  The 2 prior years Boston was 8-3 against the Cavs (includes the 5 game playoff win).  I realize the teams are a bit different, but the Cavs simply do not match up well with Boston because they can't defend Boston's 2 best players.  Mitchell will get his points, but it just won't matter.  The Cavs were scarier with Hunter instead of Eliis and Schroder.  Hunter has the size.  Ellis is too small at 6'4", Strus is too small and weak, Tyson is too young and not good enough to play huge minutes, and Wade is too big and slow. That leaves Mobley who has the size and athletic ability, but I don't think he can stay with Tatum, even post injury Tatum.   I think Brown will guard Harden and do ok (Harden was never fast and has lost a step) leaving White for Mitchell.  White will do fine guarding Donovan.  At least good enough.  I think Cleveland's only real shot is to win shoot outs and I dont see them doing it 4 times. 

New York on the other hand Im worried about.   They have the size, length, strength, and athleticism.  They are better than they were last year and I think Boston is worse (Tatum no where near the same and no Jrue, Horford, or Kornet let alone the minutes KP gave). And while I think Boston lost the 1st 2 games they should not have, they did lose them in large part because of how NY is built.  NY built a team to beat Boston and they scare me.