NBA Season/Playoffs 2025-26

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Would love to see Kelly O'Klynyk get a ring.

[Kernewek]

After shooting 29% from 3 in G5, Spurs shot 37% from 3 tonight. OKC went from shooting 43% from 3 in G5 to 25% tonight. It's not the be-all end-all but if you ran a regression to determine which variables influence winning in today's NBA making or missing 3s is probably right at the top of the list (for better or for worse).

I wonder if this is meaningfully different than, say, 15 years ago?

That's not a leading question, just a curiosity, since the initial presumption would be that in any given game, the team that made more 3 pointers would tend to win the game.

Probably more true now, since the teams that shoot the fewest threes today shoot more than the league leaders 15 years ago.  Going 6/15 from 3 compared to 5/15 from 3 is going to create less point disparity than teams that go 18/45 against 15/45.

Yeah that's a fair point - I'm mostly coming to this guess by presuming that since teams are playing a similar style of ball across eras, you'd expect the team to be better at scoring to win, but if you're only taking 15 threes (or whatever nominal amount is the average) it's very possible the number of shots overall outweighs that.

[Donoghus]

Really excited to get a Spurs/Thunder Game 7.  Feel like it was destined to happen.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Can I make a crazy person statement? You know the type of statement where I think I'm crazy because it seems like everyone would disagree?

Jalen Williams is wildly overrated. He's in the same tier as Mikal Bridges, except he's about to be paid way more and actually plays way less.

[slamtheking]

Can I make a crazy person statement? You know the type of statement where I think I'm crazy because it seems like everyone would disagree?

Jalen Williams is wildly overrated. He's in the same tier as Mikal Bridges, except he's about to be paid way more and actually plays way less.

not crazy at all.  OKC is a top team not because SGA has a great second banana to rely on but a bunch of good players surrounding him.  Williams is just a good player who won't be worth the money he's going to be looking for in his next contract.  I would not be surprised if he's moved when OKC has to start dealing with the tax apron issues very shortly so that some other team will pay him like a #1 option but have him play like a #3 option.

[Vermont Green]

On the variability in basketball outcomes, back in the day, if a team took 100 2PA, there was still variability.  On any given night, you could hit 45% or 55%, score 90 points or 110 points.  This is amplified when you take 60 2PA and 40 3PA.  You still might only hit 27 or 33 of the 2PA and 12 or 16 of the 3PA.  So a range of 90 points to 114 points.  A little broader range, but the same idea.

This gets variability amplified further if you happen to go 2 for 10 from 3 in the fourth quarter or something like that.  It can look really bad even though it is well within the expected variability of chance associated with shooting a basketball from the 3-point line.

[snively]

After shooting 29% from 3 in G5, Spurs shot 37% from 3 tonight. OKC went from shooting 43% from 3 in G5 to 25% tonight. It's not the be-all end-all but if you ran a regression to determine which variables influence winning in today's NBA making or missing 3s is probably right at the top of the list (for better or for worse).

I wonder if this is meaningfully different than, say, 15 years ago?

That's not a leading question, just a curiosity, since the initial presumption would be that in any given game, the team that made more 3 pointers would tend to win the game.

Probably more true now, since the teams that shoot the fewest threes today shoot more than the league leaders 15 years ago.  Going 6/15 from 3 compared to 5/15 from 3 is going to create less point disparity than teams that go 18/45 against 15/45.

I want to see them widen the 3 point arc so it intersects with the sideline, not the baseline. Take away the corner 3s and with them the 4 out offense that makes the 3 the game's dominant factor.

[Moranis]

Williams is hurt. He clearly isn't right