2025 CBlog Historical Post-Draft Season: Sim & Voting

[snively]

So we have 4th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and 2 tied for 10th?

So one of the top 4 teams for voting was 1st, and the others were 6th 7th and 8th.. wow

Yes, so far the sim is a bizarro world where fit isn?t a major consideration, and efficiency may be the differentiator between a bunch of teams loaded with talent.

It is looking like the sim final 4 after the postseason and the voting final 4 will be largely different, and those teams with voting grievances are experiencing their time to shine now.

Unfortunately I do not know a lot of basketball simulators. I know whatifsports and I know a Princeton analytics professor who has his own, and was not aware of whatifsports, but there aren?t really a lot of options. It?s definitely not perfect, but other than voting I?m not sure what other options we have to extend the draft and fun.

My recommendation for future drafts is to use something like a sim to determine seeding for a tournament. Then instead of general team philsophies you have match-ups between GMs, where the GMs make the case why their team would win and the leagues votes on the winners of each match-up leading to a finale.

[Moranis]

So we have 4th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and 2 tied for 10th?

So one of the top 4 teams for voting was 1st, and the others were 6th 7th and 8th.. wow

Looking at efficiency, I'm guessing SAB is #1.  Great team.

Overall, teams playing in the 90s + 2000s didn't emphasize efficiency.  Guys like Kobe, Carmelo and AI were superstars, but in terms of efficiency theiy were 10% - 15% less efficient than today's players.

I think that both the voting and the sim had some flaws, but I think my 2nd place sim result is way closer to reality than 6th, and Mo's 3rd place ranking is fairer, too.  At t same time, some good teams got hit hard, particularly those that relied on defense, grit and toughness.

I think those teams should have. Elite defense cannot stop elite offense.  No team is stopping prime Lebron when you have prime Luka, prime Brown, etc. next to him because you have to single team him and no one can single handedly guard prime Lebron.  That is the same for most of the teams in this.  Even Kawhi Leonard (the year the Spurs won and the year befoe Kawhi was dpoy) was essentially torched by Lebron. LeBron averaged 28/8/4 shooting 51.9% from 3 and 59.4% from 3 (Lebron was less efficient the prior year when the Heat won and Kawhi was young).  Offense is and always had been more important than defense. 

[Roy H.]

Offense is and always had been more important than defense.

I'm not sure.  I think I'd rather have the #1 defense and the #10 offense, as opposed to the #1 offense and the #10 defense, at least in the real NBA.  Point differential is obviously the best predictor.

[Donoghus]

Offense is and always had been more important than defense.

I'm not sure.  I think I'd rather have the #1 defense and the #10 offense, as opposed to the #1 offense and the #10 defense, at least in the real NBA.  Point differential is obviously the best predictor.

Well, as someone who had the best defense in this thing, I got zero love. 

But also just getting a good laugh at these results.

[smokeablount]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... the top 4 was very close, and #2-4 was separated by only .111 in average rank which must be a record which makes every team from here on out in a truly elite tier... a GM's binkie type of type with one of the most feared starting 5's in the league, created by one of the most decorated GMs in CelticsBlog Historical Draft history, and one of my top 2 teams...


Celtic Fan Forever's Orlando Magic!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the Orlando Magic finish 32-32, in 8th place!

[smokeablount]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... probably the most true to form modern team in our league, the highest riser after the early voting recap... full of offensive players of the highest caliber including two elite 2-way wings, the best offensive center-piece in the league, and a sim 6MoY frontrunner...


Jvalin's Indiana Pacers!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the indiana Pacers finish 35-29, in 6th place!

[Moranis]

Offense is and always had been more important than defense.

I'm not sure.  I think I'd rather have the #1 defense and the #10 offense, as opposed to the #1 offense and the #10 defense, at least in the real NBA.  Point differential is obviously the best predictor.

It is a mixed bag for actual champions as some are better defensively and some are better offensively.  But this isnt a regular season in that every team has great players at every position.  It is much harder to create defensive mismatches when most every player is a plus or better offensive player.  And the best offensive player will score on the best defensive player more times than they fail. If Shaq has the ball in the post, he will score or get fouled almost every time, no matter who is guarding him. The key is being able to get him the ball in the post, which is much less an issue in this type of setting.

[Roy H.]

]It is a mixed bag for actual champions as some are better defensively and some are better offensively.  But this isnt a regular season in that every team has great players at every position.  It is much harder to create defensive mismatches when most every player is a plus or better offensive player.  And the best offensive player will score on the best defensive player more times than they fail. If Shaq has the ball in the post, he will score or get fouled almost every time, no matter who is guarding him. The key is being able to get him the ball in the post, which is much less an issue in this type of setting.

I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of that.

And, it's sort of why I object to people nit-picking my team based upon Curry's (above-average) defense.  Curry isn't Jrue Holiday on the defensive end, but he is almost always going to outscore his opponent, and even without taking a shot his floor-stretching makes it easier for everybody else to score.  It's about net rating, across all of the individual matchups on a team.

I'm not sure I agree with the bolded comment, or at least, I don't agree with it historically.  In the modern era, great players are going to score efficiently no matter who they're covered by.  That's why a lot of the All-NBA players will have a TS% around .600, and will put up numbers on even great defenders.  (Caveat:  my go to exception in this regard is Andre Iguodala.  He's the only guy I've seen who could consistently limit -- not stop -- both Lebron and Harden.)

But, in the 90s through the early 2010s, I think great defense could stop great offense, more often than not.  Michael Jordan won an MVP with a .473 eFG%.  Kobe had 16 (!!!) seasons with an eFG% below .500.

It's one reason why it's hard for both voters and simulations to figure this stuff out.  If you just plopped Kobe down into 2025, there's legitimately an argument that he'd hurt teams as much as he helped.  Same with Iverson.  An inefficient possession is a wasted possession.

=============================================

I think that overall, you drafted your team with efficiency in mind.  One pick I was curious about, though:  why Carmelo?  I looked at him hard, but ultimately decided that he would hurt, rather than help, my offense.  He ends too many possessions without a positive result.

[Celtic Fan Forever]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... the top 4 was very close, and #2-4 was separated by only .111 in average rank which must be a record which makes every team from here on out in a truly elite tier... a GM's binkie type of type with one of the most feared starting 5's in the league, created by one of the most decorated GMs in CelticsBlog Historical Draft history, and one of my top 2 teams...


Celtic Fan Forever's Orlando Magic!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the Orlando Magic finish 32-32, in 8th place!

Yikes! I thought I had built a really good sim team.

[Roy H.]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... the top 4 was very close, and #2-4 was separated by only .111 in average rank which must be a record which makes every team from here on out in a truly elite tier... a GM's binkie type of type with one of the most feared starting 5's in the league, created by one of the most decorated GMs in CelticsBlog Historical Draft history, and one of my top 2 teams...


Celtic Fan Forever's Orlando Magic!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the Orlando Magic finish 32-32, in 8th place!

Yikes! I thought I had built a really good sim team.

This result surprises me, too.  I think your starters were all pretty statistically dominant, and without looking, I would assume that they were all pretty efficient.

[Who]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... the top 4 was very close, and #2-4 was separated by only .111 in average rank which must be a record which makes every team from here on out in a truly elite tier... a GM's binkie type of type with one of the most feared starting 5's in the league, created by one of the most decorated GMs in CelticsBlog Historical Draft history, and one of my top 2 teams...


Celtic Fan Forever's Orlando Magic!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the Orlando Magic finish 32-32, in 8th place!

Yikes! I thought I had built a really good sim team.

This result surprises me, too.  I think your starters were all pretty statistically dominant, and without looking, I would assume that they were all pretty efficient.

Older players. Ray, Pierce, Duncan. All from mid-00s.
Even CP3 + Bosh. They are late 00s.

So they will all get punished for TS%. Since it is flat TS% and not relative to their era. So more recent players have the advantage.

[Donoghus]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... the top 4 was very close, and #2-4 was separated by only .111 in average rank which must be a record which makes every team from here on out in a truly elite tier... a GM's binkie type of type with one of the most feared starting 5's in the league, created by one of the most decorated GMs in CelticsBlog Historical Draft history, and one of my top 2 teams...


Celtic Fan Forever's Orlando Magic!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the Orlando Magic finish 32-32, in 8th place!

Yikes! I thought I had built a really good sim team.

I had you as my #2 team on my ballot. 

I certainly wouldn't lose sleep over this nonsense.  You had a great team.

[smokeablount]

How do people want to handle the playin?

We have some surprising teams in the playin. We can play a one game series like the NBA does, or do best of 3 or best of 7.

I?ve got a plan for everything but would like to get some input on this. Looking for direction. A one game playoff is very likely a win for the home team but would seem to increase the chances of an upset. A 7 game series would seem to reinforce the higher seed advancing. I would consider 3 games, but maybe 1 game is best.

What do you guys think?

[smokeablount]

In a TIE for 3rd Place in the 2025 CelticsBlog Historical Fantasy Draft... the top 4 was very close, and #2-4 was separated by only .111 in average rank which must be a record which makes every team from here on out in a truly elite tier... a GM's binkie type of type with one of the most feared starting 5's in the league, created by one of the most decorated GMs in CelticsBlog Historical Draft history, and one of my top 2 teams...


Celtic Fan Forever's Orlando Magic!

In the 2025-26 sim regular season, the Orlando Magic finish 32-32, in 8th place!

Yikes! I thought I had built a really good sim team.

I had you as my #2 team on my ballot. 

I certainly wouldn't lose sleep over this nonsense.  You had a great team.

Agreed. The teams with ?05-?10 guys as centerpieces are getting punished. Even my KD MVP season is not very efficient by today?s standards, eFG under today?s league average I believe and the lowest in my starting lineup. Again, that player in 2025 is 60%+

I think if we were to do the modern 3 point shooter sim, an old timer sim, or a sim with all similar-same era guys, and the efficiency wasn?t so wildly different among top 20 picks, it wouldn?t be so wonky. For this one, sim and voting results are night and day

[Roy H.]

How do people want to handle the playin?

We have some surprising teams in the playin. We can play a one game series like the NBA does, or do best of 3 or best of 7.

I?ve got a plan for everything but would like to get some input on this. Looking for direction. A one game playoff is very likely a win for the home team but would seem to increase the chances of an upset. A 7 game series would seem to reinforce the higher seed advancing. I would consider 3 games, but maybe 1 game is best.

What do you guys think?

I'd say go with one game to inject at least a minor amount of randomness into it.

Are teams going to adjust lineups / minutes between each round?