Author Topic: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition  (Read 95360 times)

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Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #555 on: Yesterday at 03:24:39 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Did anybody ask for a critique that I missed?


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #556 on: Yesterday at 03:27:12 PM »

Online Donoghus

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I'm heading to Day 1 of Lolla in a bit (don't ask why I still do this every year) so will be logging off but hope to provide additional input on some of these other teams in the morning.

For those curious, my festival jersey lineup this year is Sean May-Bobcats/Anthony Mason-Hornets/Michael Finley-Mavs/Anfernee Simons-Blazers (currently on major discount with Fanatics)

Nice.  What's your rooming / sleeping situation going to be like.

Sean May is obscure, my man.  How'd that come about?

Luckily, the festival is in Grant Park & we live in the city on the north side so able to sleep at my own place throughout the festival.

Deep dive eBay finds.  You could so many classic old Champion and Nike jerseys out there.  I prefer the obscure.


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #557 on: Yesterday at 03:39:20 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Announcement:  the Boston Celtics have exercised their territorial draft rights to Cooper Flagg, and will be taking him in lieu of an 11th round pick.

Sorry, guys, but fair is fair.  I saw him first.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #558 on: Yesterday at 03:46:02 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I did not consider George at all when I was drafting as I basically consider him a lesser version of Lebron and I don't like him as a SG or PF. I think he is at his best at SF and I do think that is part of the reason the Cluppers struggled so much (injuries also obviously). 

Prime Lebron has pretty much always played with a ball dominant guard whether it was Wade or Kyrie.  Heck the year the Cavs won the title Kyrie actually had more shots in the playoffs than Lebron did (20.1 to 19.9).   And the following year in the regular season Irving had 19.7 to Lebron's 18.2.  And his last 2 years in Miami, Lebron had his 2 lowest shots per game in his career.  Lebron has always adapted to his teammates. It is part of why it is so easy to build around him, but also why he takes some heat in the MJ comparisons as Jordan would never adapt to his teammates and instead expected his teammates to adapt him.  Different personality type, but in an exercise like this, you should always take Lebron over Jordan.m as Lebron will adapt to what his team needs. And if that is a backseat, then he will take a backseat. 

Also as an aside, I'm not so sure the Heat had more talent than the Spurs.  Spurs had 4 HOF level players generally in their prime and a lot of depth.  The Heat were always pretty thin after the big 3 (and last legs Ray).
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #559 on: Yesterday at 04:02:26 PM »

Online Roy H.

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I don't want to pile too heavily on any one team, because I don't wanted people to feel targeted.  It takes the fun out of these things.

But, I'll note that Luka's usage is uniquely high.  His career average is 35.5 (!!!)  That's the highest in NBA history.  The player with the 6th highest usage in history?  Lebron.  You also have #7 (Mitchell), #16 (Carmelo) and #17 (Shaq).  11 guys have been drafted that rank in the top-18 of career usage.  You have 5 of those 11 playing together.

The "there's only one ball" critique is probably overused in these drafts, but I think this year in particular you may have leaned into ball dominant guys a little too much.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #560 on: Yesterday at 04:40:08 PM »

Online Roy H.

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We haven't done a "critique my team" thread in this draft yet, but if people don't mind, I'll put my team up for review:

PG: Steph Curry (MVP), Jalen Brunson
SG: Jrue Holiday, Victor Oladipo
SF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Giannis (MVP, DPOY), Elton Brand
C: Kristaps Porzingis, DeAndre Jordan  Domantas Sabonis

I'll return the favor for anybody who comments (if they want me to).

Offensive juggernaut with a mammoth frontcourt.  I worry about the size of the backcourt in this league. Both Curry and Brunson are vulnerable defensively. Holiday and Oladipo are great 2-way guys, but they are also both combo guards. Hedo has the size, but will also be vulnerable to some match-ups.

I also think the team speed is a little underwhelming. Giannis the only real freak in the starting line-up.
Yeah I worry about them defending the main points of attack of opposing teams i.e. PG's and SF's.  I think it will be a struggle and while there are some good defensive guys left, they will be significantly less talented than the guys theyd have to replace.

I don't necessarily share your same concerns about the defense.  Giannis and Jrue are obviously the lynchpins, but Curry, Hedo, and KP have all started on defenses that were top-3 in the league.  Heck, Turkuglu did it with two different franchises (Spurs and Magic, both #1).



I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #561 on: Yesterday at 05:02:34 PM »

Offline Moranis

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We haven't done a "critique my team" thread in this draft yet, but if people don't mind, I'll put my team up for review:

PG: Steph Curry (MVP), Jalen Brunson
SG: Jrue Holiday, Victor Oladipo
SF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Giannis (MVP, DPOY), Elton Brand
C: Kristaps Porzingis, DeAndre Jordan  Domantas Sabonis

I'll return the favor for anybody who comments (if they want me to).

Offensive juggernaut with a mammoth frontcourt.  I worry about the size of the backcourt in this league. Both Curry and Brunson are vulnerable defensively. Holiday and Oladipo are great 2-way guys, but they are also both combo guards. Hedo has the size, but will also be vulnerable to some match-ups.

I also think the team speed is a little underwhelming. Giannis the only real freak in the starting line-up.
Yeah I worry about them defending the main points of attack of opposing teams i.e. PG's and SF's.  I think it will be a struggle and while there are some good defensive guys left, they will be significantly less talented than the guys theyd have to replace.

I don't necessarily share your same concerns about the defense.  Giannis and Jrue are obviously the lynchpins, but Curry, Hedo, and KP have all started on defenses that were top-3 in the league.  Heck, Turkuglu did it with two different franchises (Spurs and Magic, both #1).
normal league teams are not this. 
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #562 on: Yesterday at 05:32:48 PM »

Online smokeablount

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I think I?ve decided on 05-06 prime Nets Kidd, but will decide after tomorrow. Might be worth the spacing limitations based on who I can put around him
CelticsBlog 2005-25 Fantasy Draft Commish - OKC Thunder:
PG: SGA (24-25, MVP)
SG: Klay Thompson (14-15)
SF: Kevin Durant (13-14, MVP)
PF: Evan Mobley (24-25, DPOY)
C: Rudy Gobert (18-19, DPOY)
B: JKidd, Vince, KAT, Siakam, Bam, Rose (MVP), Danny Green

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #563 on: Yesterday at 09:20:24 PM »

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I don't want to pile too heavily on any one team, because I don't wanted people to feel targeted.  It takes the fun out of these things.

But, I'll note that Luka's usage is uniquely high.  His career average is 35.5 (!!!)  That's the highest in NBA history.  The player with the 6th highest usage in history?  Lebron.  You also have #7 (Mitchell), #16 (Carmelo) and #17 (Shaq).  11 guys have been drafted that rank in the top-18 of career usage.  You have 5 of those 11 playing together.

The "there's only one ball" critique is probably overused in these drafts, but I think this year in particular you may have leaned into ball dominant guys a little too much.
Miami Shaq's touches were no where near his LA or Orlando days though.  He was already trending downward and frankly if a guy is going to hit over 60% of his FG's and get fouled on 70% of his shots, I'm ok with a higher usage.  As for Lebron.  Lebron's USG in 13 was 30.2.  Wade was 29.5 and Bosh was 22.7.  Bosh was always an upper 20's USG player except the 4 years with Lebron when he was in the lower 20's (that is basically the same thing with Kevin Love).  I think Bosh is a great example of what Wemby and Brown will look like.  Guys that when they are the 1st or 2nd option have upper 20's USG, but when they are 3rd option (or lower) their USG goes down while generally playing at essentially the same level of play (with less touches).  BTW, Lebron's USG that year is basically exactly the same USG he had for the Lakers last year.  I think that is important because it shows that adding a higher USG player like Luka isn't particularly detrimental to Lebron's game.  Luka is obviously a high USG player, but he really is only a few percentages higher than Wade and Irving were during their Lebron years and he is far better passer or rebounder than either of them were (also a better scorer).  And Luka has played with plenty of high usage players, like Irving, Brunson, and Porzingis (along with Lebron). 

Mitchell and Anthony are bench guys playing 15 mpg a game or so on a unit of defensive players.  They are exactly what you'd want as scoring pop off the bench.  Instant offense.  And for all the crap Melo gets, he has fit in and played incredibly well on the US National Team and when he played with another high usage HOFer in Denver, his USG dropped dramatically and he set his career high for TS% (well until his last year playing with Lebron in LA when he came off the bench).   

I get there is only 1 ball, but that is where style and personality fit.  I like the Lebron/Luka/Shaq trio.  I think they fit very well.  I have no concerns at all about Brown and Wemby taking on a lesser role.  I think the bench rotation also has a very nice mix with Daniels/Mitchell/Wallace/Anthony/Noah.  That is a very balanced defensive and offensive bench unit and the players can provide significant lineup versatility with the starters as basically every player can play multiple positions (outside of Shaq/Noah).  I can matchup with basically anyone and have a lineup for every occassion i.e. if I need a defensive unit I run out Daniels, Brown, Lebron, Wemby, and Shaq/Noah or I can swap in Wallace for Wemby or Shaq/Noah and play smaller (center depending on opposing big man).  I can play a deadly small ball offensive lineup with Mitchell and Anthony in at SG and PF. 

Who is someone like Curry or Brunson going to guard with both Luka and Donovan on the floor (heck can they even guard someone the size and strength of Brown?).  Even Jrue, while an elite defender, isn't all that big (same with Victor).  He will struggle guarding all of the elite SG's in this and Hedo is not a good defender.  That is what I was saying about your point of attack defense.  It isn't good.  It a clear weak point on your team.  I think you needed to pick a defending PG not Brunson given Curry is your starter.  That is why I wanted Daniels.  I wanted someone that could provide a different skill set than Luka.  I think that is important.  It provides way more lineup options and flexibility.  I mean if Curry isn't defending well, it isn't like Brunson is going to come in and play lock down defense.  That is why I liked JV picking up White to backup Lillard.  I also liked the inverse that Tim did with Rondo starting he went with an offensive juggernaut in Westbrook to back him up (not that I really like Russ in this, but I like the different style approach), similar to his AK and Peja forward duo.  If your starter has a weakness, his backup should have that weakness be his strength.  At least that is my philosophy to team building. 
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #564 on: Today at 08:01:25 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Both Lopez and Korver are smart picks.

Teams' 11th and 12th men don't count for much, so filling roles is one good strategy.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #565 on: Today at 08:54:07 AM »

Online Jvalin

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Both Lopez and Korver are smart picks.

Teams' 11th and 12th men don't count for much, so filling roles is one good strategy.
I don't even think my 10th man will crack the rotation, much less the 11th or 12th.

If it weren't for the simulator's algorithm, I would have been perfectly happy with an 8-man rotation. Since the algorithm penalizes short rotations, I'll likely use my 9th man as well, albeit for limited minutes.

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #566 on: Today at 08:58:24 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Both Lopez and Korver are smart picks.

Teams' 11th and 12th men don't count for much, so filling roles is one good strategy.
I don't even think my 10th man will crack the rotation, much less the 11th or 12th.

If it weren't for the simulator's algorithm, I would have been perfectly happy with an 8-man rotation. Since the algorithm penalizes short rotations, I'll likely use my 9th man as well, albeit for limited minutes.

Yeah, I don't get the algorithm at all.  I haven't looked into it.

When we select players for the sim, do we tell it our rotation?  Does it simulate an entire season, or one series at a time?  If so, how do we sub for injuries, etc.?  Does the computer figure out substitution patterns?

SAB did mention last night that we only needed 9-man rotations.



I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #567 on: Today at 09:08:27 AM »

Online Jvalin

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Both Lopez and Korver are smart picks.

Teams' 11th and 12th men don't count for much, so filling roles is one good strategy.
I don't even think my 10th man will crack the rotation, much less the 11th or 12th.

If it weren't for the simulator's algorithm, I would have been perfectly happy with an 8-man rotation. Since the algorithm penalizes short rotations, I'll likely use my 9th man as well, albeit for limited minutes.

Yeah, I don't get the algorithm at all.  I haven't looked into it.

When we select players for the sim, do we tell it our rotation?  Does it simulate an entire season, or one series at a time?  If so, how do we sub for injuries, etc.?  Does the computer figure out substitution patterns?

SAB did mention last night that we only needed 9-man rotations.
All I remember is there's a minutes cap per player. It is calculated based on total minutes played during the regular season divided by 82 games.

For instance, Jokic played a total of 2737 minutes in the 2025 regular season. If I devide that number by 82, I end up with 33.4 minutes. Anything over that I won't be getting max value out of him anymore because of fatigue. At least this is how I think it works. SAB is definitely more familiar with the simulator. Happy to be corrected in case I got it wrong.

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #568 on: Today at 09:08:45 AM »

Online smokeablount

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Sorry there is confusion about the sim. I explained it a few times but in large posts that may have been confusing. There are rules online about it that generally pertain to salary cap leagues. Where too much usage penalizes you because you?re paying for stuff you don?t need and it will bite you in other places.

Or you can?t play a short rotation. These shouldn?t be issues in our uncapped league because we have an abundance of usage and teams will 75% or 2x the cap, and even sticking to the minutes rules, everyone is going to have guys that can go 30 minutes.

I am thinking to set a rule that either 9 guys must get 8+ minutes or 10 guys must get 5+ minutes, to simulate a realistic rotation.

But you may want to play more guys. The sim will base your team on the aggregate stats (eFG, % rebs/assists, etc) of the minutes of your guys that play. So maybe you want to mix in a 3 point shooter or a newer guy to lift eFG, or play a behemoth backup big some spot minutes to increase offensive and defensive rebounding

I am hoping to draft a team where I can play 10 guys if I want, but trim it to 8 in playoff matchups if desired

You will submit depth charts and minutes for your players to me via PM. Players can play, per game, their total minutes in the season you chose / 82, rounded up to the nearest whole minute. So on my team, SGA maxes out at 32 mpg while KD maxes at 38

After a simmed season I will announce playoff matchups. You can update your rosters and trim to 8 guys at 10+ mins and customize for your matchup each round, or just leave them as is, I won?t chase people. All but 2 teams will be in the main playoff draw
CelticsBlog 2005-25 Fantasy Draft Commish - OKC Thunder:
PG: SGA (24-25, MVP)
SG: Klay Thompson (14-15)
SF: Kevin Durant (13-14, MVP)
PF: Evan Mobley (24-25, DPOY)
C: Rudy Gobert (18-19, DPOY)
B: JKidd, Vince, KAT, Siakam, Bam, Rose (MVP), Danny Green

Re: 2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition
« Reply #569 on: Today at 09:18:11 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Jvalin, if you're around, can you provide that spreadsheet of players drafted again please?

----

SAB, thanks for the explanation.  I'm sure that you've gone over this ad nauseum, I just don't pay attention. ;)


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER... AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!

KP / Giannis / Turkuglu / Jrue / Curry
Sabonis / Brand / A. Thompson / Oladipo / Brunson
Jordan / Bowen

Redshirt:  Cooper Flagg