Cs want to sign Damian Lillard (But he's going back to POR)

[Vermont Green]

So he is going to be late 35 or 36 when we see him play for the first time, and coming off an Achilles. Let's say he comes back at 70% of last season. Don't we already have one of that player archetype in Pritchard? Except he at least tries on defense, is 8 years younger, and is on one of the best contracts in the NBA. If we get him on a minimum, sure whatever. I just wouldn't be optimistic about this changing anything for us.

Through no fault of his own, I fear Lillard may just be a name going forward in his career.

Agreed.

I'd rather keep out young guys Pritchard & A Simons over a 35-36yr old Dame coming off an achilles injury. Decent odds they will be better than him in 2026-27 and certainly will be in 3-4 years from now. We have good long term pieces there. I don't want to give one of them up for the risk of Dame coming off an achilles injury.

Fine if we had no guards. Good risk to take. All upside. Low financial risk. Not putting anyone useful out of a job. But that is not the case.

Our best asset is the Jays at forward. Our 2nd best asset is our 3 guard backcourt of D White, Pritchard and A Simons. I do not see the point in harming something valuable in order to bet on a risk like Dame at 35-36yo coming off a career threatening achilles injury.

What number do you think it would require to sign Simons next off-season?

No idea. It depends on how well he plays this season.

I would try to give him a $25mil a year extension this summer. His price could go up or down from there depending on how he and the team plays during the season. You could get unlucky and some team offers him $30-35mil a year. You could get lucky and it is a bad market for a tweener score first guard and you get him for $20mil a season.

I'd rather try to lock him down early // not roll the dice on that. See if he would be willing to take a $25mil a year extension now.

If we sign Simons to an extension, how does that impact the ability to trade him?  I don't mean in terms of trade value, but in terms of CBA restrictions.

[Who]

So he is going to be late 35 or 36 when we see him play for the first time, and coming off an Achilles. Let's say he comes back at 70% of last season. Don't we already have one of that player archetype in Pritchard? Except he at least tries on defense, is 8 years younger, and is on one of the best contracts in the NBA. If we get him on a minimum, sure whatever. I just wouldn't be optimistic about this changing anything for us.

Through no fault of his own, I fear Lillard may just be a name going forward in his career.

Agreed.

I'd rather keep out young guys Pritchard & A Simons over a 35-36yr old Dame coming off an achilles injury. Decent odds they will be better than him in 2026-27 and certainly will be in 3-4 years from now. We have good long term pieces there. I don't want to give one of them up for the risk of Dame coming off an achilles injury.

Fine if we had no guards. Good risk to take. All upside. Low financial risk. Not putting anyone useful out of a job. But that is not the case.

Our best asset is the Jays at forward. Our 2nd best asset is our 3 guard backcourt of D White, Pritchard and A Simons. I do not see the point in harming something valuable in order to bet on a risk like Dame at 35-36yo coming off a career threatening achilles injury.

What number do you think it would require to sign Simons next off-season?

No idea. It depends on how well he plays this season.

I would try to give him a $25mil a year extension this summer. His price could go up or down from there depending on how he and the team plays during the season. You could get unlucky and some team offers him $30-35mil a year. You could get lucky and it is a bad market for a tweener score first guard and you get him for $20mil a season.

I'd rather try to lock him down early // not roll the dice on that. See if he would be willing to take a $25mil a year extension now.

If we sign Simons to an extension, how does that impact the ability to trade him?  I don't mean in terms of trade value, but in terms of CBA restrictions.

I don't know the answer to that.

I am not that concerned about trading A Simons this season. I would like to trade him (with a bunch of 1sts) for a big at some point but that player does not appear to be available. I see this as more of a holding pattern where patience is required rather than trying to make a trade soon.

Update: What I can see on the internet is that a player is tradeable after a contract extension if the extension is less than a 5% raise on his previous contract + no more than two additional years. So it would be a decrease in pay from $27mil to $25mil but too many years. So he would not be allowed to be traded for 6 months. If they did the extension quickly, they could engineer it to make him trade available by the trade deadline midseason. 

https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/who-can-be-traded-and-when-after-an-extension/

About half way down the page.

[Roy H.]

So he is going to be late 35 or 36 when we see him play for the first time, and coming off an Achilles. Let's say he comes back at 70% of last season. Don't we already have one of that player archetype in Pritchard? Except he at least tries on defense, is 8 years younger, and is on one of the best contracts in the NBA. If we get him on a minimum, sure whatever. I just wouldn't be optimistic about this changing anything for us.

Through no fault of his own, I fear Lillard may just be a name going forward in his career.

Agreed.

I'd rather keep out young guys Pritchard & A Simons over a 35-36yr old Dame coming off an achilles injury. Decent odds they will be better than him in 2026-27 and certainly will be in 3-4 years from now. We have good long term pieces there. I don't want to give one of them up for the risk of Dame coming off an achilles injury.

Fine if we had no guards. Good risk to take. All upside. Low financial risk. Not putting anyone useful out of a job. But that is not the case.

Our best asset is the Jays at forward. Our 2nd best asset is our 3 guard backcourt of D White, Pritchard and A Simons. I do not see the point in harming something valuable in order to bet on a risk like Dame at 35-36yo coming off a career threatening achilles injury.

What number do you think it would require to sign Simons next off-season?

No idea. It depends on how well he plays this season.

I would try to give him a $25mil a year extension this summer. His price could go up or down from there depending on how he and the team plays during the season. You could get unlucky and some team offers him $30-35mil a year. You could get lucky and it is a bad market for a tweener score first guard and you get him for $20mil a season.

I'd rather try to lock him down early // not roll the dice on that. See if he would be willing to take a $25mil a year extension now.

See, that's the rub.  If we pay Simons $25 million, that cuts drastically into the $42 million or so that we have next season beneath the second apron.

Currently, we have the $22.5 trade exception and the mini-MLE to use.  We'd still have that (and could use all of that) if we signed Lillard for around $6 million, and could also fit somewhere around the 10th pick in the draft.

But, if we give Simons $25 million and add a $5 million draft pick, we could only have $12 million of the TPE to use, and wouldn't have any other options to add salary.

So, what's a better option for us:  Lillard + $22.5 million big man + mini-MLE + draft pick; or Simons + draft pick + $10 million big man?

[dannyboy35]

  Appreciate the research people do here on the financials. It?s not something they try to understand in the media really.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

So he is going to be late 35 or 36 when we see him play for the first time, and coming off an Achilles. Let's say he comes back at 70% of last season. Don't we already have one of that player archetype in Pritchard? Except he at least tries on defense, is 8 years younger, and is on one of the best contracts in the NBA. If we get him on a minimum, sure whatever. I just wouldn't be optimistic about this changing anything for us.

Through no fault of his own, I fear Lillard may just be a name going forward in his career.

Agreed.

I'd rather keep out young guys Pritchard & A Simons over a 35-36yr old Dame coming off an achilles injury. Decent odds they will be better than him in 2026-27 and certainly will be in 3-4 years from now. We have good long term pieces there. I don't want to give one of them up for the risk of Dame coming off an achilles injury.

Fine if we had no guards. Good risk to take. All upside. Low financial risk. Not putting anyone useful out of a job. But that is not the case.

Our best asset is the Jays at forward. Our 2nd best asset is our 3 guard backcourt of D White, Pritchard and A Simons. I do not see the point in harming something valuable in order to bet on a risk like Dame at 35-36yo coming off a career threatening achilles injury.

What number do you think it would require to sign Simons next off-season?

No idea. It depends on how well he plays this season.

I would try to give him a $25mil a year extension this summer. His price could go up or down from there depending on how he and the team plays during the season. You could get unlucky and some team offers him $30-35mil a year. You could get lucky and it is a bad market for a tweener score first guard and you get him for $20mil a season.

I'd rather try to lock him down early // not roll the dice on that. See if he would be willing to take a $25mil a year extension now.

See, that's the rub.  If we pay Simons $25 million, that cuts drastically into the $42 million or so that we have next season beneath the second apron.

Currently, we have the $22.5 trade exception and the mini-MLE to use.  We'd still have that (and could use all of that) if we signed Lillard for around $6 million, and could also fit somewhere around the 10th pick in the draft.

But, if we give Simons $25 million and add a $5 million draft pick, we could only have $12 million of the TPE to use, and wouldn't have any other options to add salary.

So, what's a better option for us:  Lillard + $22.5 million big man + mini-MLE + draft pick; or Simons + draft pick + $10 million big man?

TP. This is a very helpful breakdown, but it's worth noting that rosters change significantly season to season, which means there may be factors we don't see right now.

[Donoghus]

Well, he's returning to Portland.

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
?
25s
BREAKING: Nine-time NBA All-Star Damian Lillard is finalizing a three-year, $42 million contract to return to the Portland Trail Blazers, sources tell ESPN. Deal is expected to include a player option in 2027-28 and a no-trade clause. A storybook reunion home for the 35-year-old.

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
?
1m
Lillard now will have a 2025-26 set salary of $70M between his Portland and Milwaukee deals, and a salary of $141M over the next two years ahead of an opt-out in 2027. Blazers officials and Aaron Goodwin of Goodwin Sports Management are finalizing terms this week.

[Who]

Well, he's returning to Portland.

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
?
25s
BREAKING: Nine-time NBA All-Star Damian Lillard is finalizing a three-year, $42 million contract to return to the Portland Trail Blazers, sources tell ESPN. Deal is expected to include a player option in 2027-28 and a no-trade clause. A storybook reunion home for the 35-year-old.

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
?
1m
Lillard now will have a 2025-26 set salary of $70M between his Portland and Milwaukee deals, and a salary of $141M over the next two years ahead of an opt-out in 2027. Blazers officials and Aaron Goodwin of Goodwin Sports Management are finalizing terms this week.

3yrs $42mil. Is that the MLE? $14mil a year?

[Who]

So the Blazers have Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson. Or will have 12 months from now.

If I was Scoot, I would be nervous about my role once Lillard returns. Billups has been talking up Scoot and says he will have a breakout year next season. You would imagine Scoot should be trying to become a starter next season or the year after. With Jrue sliding over to SG, taking over 6th man role, or being traded elsewhere.

Jrue and Lillard would be an interesting backcourt if Lillard can perform at a good level. They balance each other out well. Scoot & Lillard would not work well. Scoot and Jrue would also work well. Jrue makes the two guard lineups work. The only one who can play SG.

That Scoot vs Lillard situation looks like a problem in the making. I don't think Portland should have brought him back. Not with Scoot there.

Edit: They have Shaedon Sharpe as their SG of the future. So no clear role there for Jrue to slide over to SG either. Looks like Jrue will be traded before 2026-27. Not enough minutes to go around. All 4 of those guys will want 30mpg.

I would rather have Jrue as a veteran mentor to those 2 young guards than Lillard. Jrue is the ideal glue guy. Perfect for those young bucks. Lillard is a selfish gunner who doesn't play defense. Jrue can actually play alongside Scoot. Lillard cannot - at least not well.

[Roy H.]

I don't quite understand Portland's off-season. 

[Atzar]

Portland is closer to being competitive than I realized.  That roster has a sneaky amount of talent and depth.

They have a year to let Scoot, Sharpe, and Avdija show who is real and who isn't.  Cling Kong should be a serviceable starting big for the future.  Toumani Camara is underrated.  Keep Jrue for a year to help set culture.  Then you go into the 2026-2027 season with boatloads of cap space and the addition of Lillard - whatever form that takes. 

Would they have a chance at Luka?  I'd be pretty shocked if he left LA but it's undeniable that Portland has a far, far better future outlook than the Lakers do.  I wonder if that might be more attractive to him than a franchise that has spent its offseason trying to convince everybody that Jake LaRavia is the solution to all of their problems.

[Birdman]

Don?t blame Lillard..he loves Portland, the city & organization plus his family lives there?also got a 3 year deal

[Goldstar88]

He was never coming to Boston. That was fantasy land.

[Goldstar88]

So the Blazers have Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson. Or will have 12 months from now.

If I was Scoot, I would be nervous about my role once Lillard returns. Billups has been talking up Scoot and says he will have a breakout year next season. You would imagine Scoot should be trying to become a starter next season or the year after. With Jrue sliding over to SG, taking over 6th man role, or being traded elsewhere.

Jrue and Lillard would be an interesting backcourt if Lillard can perform at a good level. They balance each other out well. Scoot & Lillard would not work well. Scoot and Jrue would also work well. Jrue makes the two guard lineups work. The only one who can play SG.

That Scoot vs Lillard situation looks like a problem in the making. I don't think Portland should have brought him back. Not with Scoot there.

Edit: They have Shaedon Sharpe as their SG of the future. So no clear role there for Jrue to slide over to SG either. Looks like Jrue will be traded before 2026-27. Not enough minutes to go around. All 4 of those guys will want 30mpg.

I would rather have Jrue as a veteran mentor to those 2 young guards than Lillard. Jrue is the ideal glue guy. Perfect for those young bucks. Lillard is a selfish gunner who doesn't play defense. Jrue can actually play alongside Scoot. Lillard cannot - at least not well.

Sharpe is 6?5/210lbs. He can play the 3.

Starters: Lillard, Holiday, Sharp, Avdija, Clinigan

Bench: Henderson, Murray, Grant, Camara, Timelord, Yang

That?s a deep team. Scoot can play a role similar to Pritchard until he is ready to start.

[keevsnick]

Looks like Portland essentially gave Lillard most if not all their non-tax mid-level.

Not a bad deal for him, it's a 2+1 do he'll get paid in 25-26 and 26-27 something like 28 million total but only have to play one year. Then the last year is a player option so if he's good in 26-27 he can chase another pay day and if not he just opts into another 14 million. Celtics only had minimums or maybe tax MLE (about 6 mil) to offer, and obviously he's comfortable in Portland.

They are sort of a weird team now.

[Roy H.]

It's weird how things work out.  Portland trades Lillard for Holiday, and then trades Holiday.  Now they've got both.