OKC vs OKC

[slightly biased bias fan]

Saw this on ESPN and thought it was a good discussion.

Who wins between the 2012 Thunder & the 2025 Thunder?

2012 Oklahoma City Thunder

Westbrook
Harden
Durant
Ibaka
Perkins


2025 Oklahoma City Thunder

Gilgeous-Alexander
Dort
Williams
Holmgren
Hartenstein

[Who]

2 of the big things that hurt that 2012 team do not apply in a matchup to this 2025 OKC team.

(1) LeBron was a more well rounded and dominant superstar than Durant. Durant lacked the all-round game to match LeBron and was soundly outplayed in the Finals.

SGA is not the all-round player LeBron is. SGA is not a game changing defender. He is not a game changing rebounder. He is not the passer / playmaker that LeBron is. He is good at all those things but not elite like LeBron was. SGA is closer to the Durant range. So this does not apply.

(2) Perk killed them in the Finals against Bosh. Bosh was a skilled high post / perimeter big man with superior speed who Perk could not compete against. OKC's coach refused to awknowledge this by changing his lineup to put in someone like N Collison. Instead he let his team play at a disadvantage to start out each game and 2nd half.

This is not a factor against OKC with Hartenstein. That is a comfortable matchup for Perk. They can go minute for minute against Hartenstein. When Chet plays center, OKC can go small with Ibaka at center and match that.

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On that note, one thing the 2025 team definitely has as an advantage is the coaching. Scotty Brooks was a horrible coach who regularly hurt that team. Daignault (spelling?) is very good. Advantage 2025 OKC.

[Who]

Harden is one of those big swing factors.

Which Harden shows up? The one in the Finals who crapped his pants or the one in the WCF who destroyed San Antonio? It was nothing that Miami did to stop Harden. He just failed. Does he fail again in a Finals series against 2025 OKC?

If Harden actually showed up in those 2012 Finals, it would have been a much more competitive series against Miami.

[Who]

2012 Oklahoma City Thunder

G: R Westbrook, D Fisher
G: T Sefolosha, J Harden
F: K Durant
F: S Ibaka
C: K Perkins, N Collison

I was just looking at their bench. 2012 OKC only played 8 players regularly. They didn't have much depth. Their best players beyond that were Royal Ivey, Cole Aldrich, Daqueen Cook, Lazar Hayward. A defensive PG. A stiff defensive C. A small shooting SG. Not an NBA plaer.


I have to give 2025 OKC a major advantage in terms of depth. Caruso, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams. 11 deep. Ajay Mitchell. Ousmane Dieng. Dillon Jones. Beyond those 11.

[SparzWizard]

Give me 2025 OKC. They're just tough and well-rounded. SGA playing out of his mind. Solid bigs in Chet and Hartenstein. Defense is absolute while 2012's defensive rating was ranked 12

[Celtics4ever]

The 2012 team was hurt by the fact that there is only one ball at a time on offense.   All that talent but you can only use one of them at a time.

[Moranis]

the 2025 team is much deeper in the rotation level players, but 3 of the 4 best players are on the 2012 team.  Now you might take SGA 1st, but then you'd have Durant, Westbrook, and Harden.  Probably Williams and Chet after that, but then probably Ibaka. 

Obviously Lebron is better than SGA, and Lebron was on a mission, but the real difference is Wade and Bosh are simply better than Williams and Holmgren.  And they are better by a pretty wide margin.  The talent at the top was just different as Wade was probably the 3rd best player in that series and Bosh was better than Harden was (at that time, obviously Harden peaked higher, but he wasn't MVP Harden yet).  Either one of those teams likely beats this year's Thunder and does so fairly easily.  They just don't have the talent at the top like other great teams in the past did.

[Who]

the 2025 team is much deeper in the rotation level players, but 3 of the 4 best players are on the 2012 team.  Now you might take SGA 1st, but then you'd have Durant, Westbrook, and Harden.  Probably Williams and Chet after that, but then probably Ibaka. 

Obviously Lebron is better than SGA, and Lebron was on a mission, but the real difference is Wade and Bosh are simply better than Williams and Holmgren.  And they are better by a pretty wide margin.  The talent at the top was just different as Wade was probably the 3rd best player in that series and Bosh was better than Harden was (at that time, obviously Harden peaked higher, but he wasn't MVP Harden yet).  Either one of those teams likely beats this year's Thunder and does so fairly easily.  They just don't have the talent at the top like other great teams in the past did.

Three questions / points

(1) Was Wade the 3rd best player in that series? My memory is that Westbrook outplayed him in the Finals and was the 3rd best player. That it was a changing of the guard moment. That Wade was no longer an MVP candidate, no longer a 1st team All-NBA guy. That decline was setting in.

Looking at the season awards. Wade finished 3rd team All-NBA that season and did so again the following season. His final All-NBA selection. A top 15 player. Westbrook finished on the 2nd team in 2012 ahead of Wade given they are both at the guard spot.

In the Finals, Wade averaged 22.6ppg 6.0rpg 5.2apg and 2.6 stocks per game. He shot 43.5% from the field and had a TS% of 51.6%. Westbrook averaged 27.0ppg 6.4rpg 6.6apg and 1.4 stocks per game. He shot 43.3% from the field and had a TS% of 50.0%. Westbrook only had 11 turnovers in the 5 games. Wade had 14 turnovers.

(2) Why is Harden better than J-Dub?

Harden was the 6th man of the year with 16.8ppg 4.1rpg 3.7apg with an insane 66% TS%. Now he was 3rd choice and limited to 31.4 minutes per game. On a different, he was likely an All-Star. So let's say an All-Star level player who could get 20-23ppg 5rpg 5apg (albeit on lower scoring efficiency as defenses key in on him. He went for 60% TS% the following season in Houston although did manage 25.9ppg).

J-Dub averaged 21.6ppg 5.3rpg 5.1apg on a middling 57.3% TS%. He was also high level defensive SF. Jalen was a 1st time All-Star and 3rd Team All-NBA along with 2nd Team All-Defense.

Unlike 2012 Harden, J-Dub actually showed up in the Finals. 25.8ppg 5.6rpg 4.2apg on 56.2% TS%. Harden went for 12.4ppg 4.8rpg 3.6apg on 52.9% TS%. 

(3) Is Bosh that much different than Chet?

Bosh had talent to be a scorer when the offense revolved around him but he struggled to be a prolific scorer while playing next to Wade and LeBron. Bosh averaged 14ppg that postseason, 12.9ppg the following postseason, and 14.6ppg in 2014. Chet is averaging 15.6ppg in the playoffs.

Bosh was also a subpar rebounder averaging around 7.8rpg in 31.4mpg in 2012 (7.9 regular season in 35.2mpg) as the sole big man on the floor. Chet is getting 8.8rpg in 30.0mpg. Neither guy was / is good at boxing out / keeping opponent bigs off the glass.

Chet is the superior team defender. More athletic. Quicker on the perimeter and on rotations. Far better leaper and shot blocker. Provides better rim protection than Bosh.

I am not sure Bosh is much different than Chet as a man defender. Bosh had some more strength than Chet but Bosh was still prone to being bullied himself. Chet played good defense on Jokic who is the toughest individual opponent either player faced in their post season runs.

Bosh averaged 1.8apg in the regular season and 1.1apg in the playoffs for his 4yr run in Miami. Similar numbers in 2012. Chet is at 2.0apg in the regular season and 1.0apg in the playoffs.

I can see the argument for Bosh over Chet as the #1 option on a team but Bosh as the #3 option behind LeBron & Wade versus Chet as the #3 option behind SGA and J-Dub looks fairly even to me. Possibly even advantage Chet given his team defense.

Oh scoring efficiency. Bosh was 57.4% TS% in 2012. Chet is 56.7%. Bosh played in a better defensive era so factor that in and it is good advantage for Bosh.