Nuggets (28-14) at Celtics (32-9) Game #42 1/19/24

[RMO]

Sorry if this was already posted.  Didn't realize this and I find it concerning

Kevin O'Connor
@KevinOConnorNBA
Only 2 points in the final 4 minutes and 50 seconds for the Celtics. As ugly as it gets to end a game. Crunch time offense remains the leading concern for Boston in the playoffs.

[ozgod]

Sorry if this was already posted.  Didn't realize this and I find it concerning

Kevin O'Connor
@KevinOConnorNBA
Only 2 points in the final 4 minutes and 50 seconds for the Celtics. As ugly as it gets to end a game. Crunch time offense remains the leading concern for Boston in the playoffs.

Tom Westerholm from Boston.com has a different view to Kevin, and he used stats over a longer period of time to back it up.

1. A lot will be made of the Celtics’ struggles down the stretch in games, and that’s understandable after Friday’s loss. The Celtics’ offense doesn’t always look pretty when they are trailing in the closing seconds. especially after watching Jayson Tatum try to take on three defenders and miss at the rim, or after watching yet another ugly jumper fall off the rim harmlessly.

“I think I kind of rushed it, and that’s on me,” Tatum said afterward.

But the stats don’t back up concerns about the Celtics in the clutch. They have the fourth-most wins in clutch situations, per the NBA’s stats site with a record of 13-8, and they are tied with the Bucks for the second-best net rating in clutch situations at 21.4. From a basic counting stats perspective, they score 10.6 points per game in clutch opportunities, which is seventh-best in the league.

A more accurate way to describe the Celtics’ struggles might be to say that they don’t always perform well when looking for the tying or go-ahead shot, which could prove to be a concern at some point down the line, but the Celtics have been pretty good at avoiding those situations this season, which is more important anyway. After all, you don’t want a team to rely on tying or go-ahead shots, because they are always more difficult for a myriad reasons (refs swallowing their whistles down the stretch, physical defenses are more locked in, etc.).

“I mean, your best player has the ball and an opportunity, and whether it was on two or three guys, you got a layup and he just missed it,” Joe Mazzulla said. “So the balance is you trust your best player to make a play, and he just didn’t make it.”

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2024/01/19/celtics-nuggets-nikola-jokic-jayson-tatum-game-recap-takeaways/?p1=hp_primary

Clearly, as Joe (who will be fired in the morning) said, because Tatum missed his shot, we're having a different conversation to what we may have been having had he made it, forced OT and if it had gone our way. Had that happened we would probably be talking about the team's mental resilience in the face of a second half onslaught from the defending champions and how they rose above their two best players having substandard games.

So he missed it, and before that he missed a layup, and before that Jaylen missed two free throws...all opportunities to swing this game. So on that basis the team are chokers, soft, got embarrassed on national TV, can't win, need to be blown up (depending on what part of the gloom spectrum one is on). But according to Tom (and I haven't yet checked NBA.com myself) we've apparently not been too bad in the clutch over the balance of the season. We can put in the usual asterisks in that by saying "well those other teams we were in the clutch in sucked and we should have beaten them by double digits and never been in the clutch anyway" or "the only games that matter in the regular season are these games against fellow contenders and so far we've failed them all, I don't rate any wins we have against non playoff teams we should beat them by a hundred".

There's merit to that, it would be interesting to see how we perform in the clutch against "elite teams" (subjective) and if we were successful who took the last shot and what play was it but unfortunately there's no easy way to cherry pick clutch performances statistically, other than rely on anecdotal information (or read news reports of each game). I might try and put all our results on Excel and see if I can parse anything out. I would also like to know if what we are seeing with this team is a mirage and if that hypothesis can be proven statistically.

[Phantom255x]

My bigger issue is, we have legit talent even outside of Tatum. If an opposing team is defending Tatum well or even doubling him, why can't the final shot be drawn up to someone else that's schemed open? Like surely they can design some plays that gets Porzingis or White open and they can't take an open look instead of Tatum constantly playing iso-ball and often taking a poor shot.

Feels like all our final plays are designed for Tatum and it's not even really a designed play, just Tatum catching, driving and taking an iso-shot. Yeah he can make those, but not at a great clip in the final seconds of games.

Teams with smart head coaches like the Heat and now Sixers will expose this.

And yeah, maybe we have a different conversation if JT makes the shot. But guess what, that could be the difference between winning it all this season and not. These small moments. There can certainly be better shots created from ATOs. Can Brad Stevens send some more to Mazzulla.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Celtics just choked once again in a big game situation....Hero ball is not the answer.

[Phantom255x]

The game itself was amazing. Great atmosphere. Both teams definitely treated it like a playoff game with the intensity, rotations, etc. I wouldn't rule out Denver making it back to the Finals. There will be a tiny bit of inexperience for Minnesota and especially OKC in the playoffs probably, and Denver is not even that far behind both for the 1 seed.

[jambr380]

This game, like so many games lately, reinforces in my mind that the team needs another big body up front. Switching from KP to Horford guarding Jokic was somewhat effective, but Jokic adjusted and wore him down. The team still needs another body to throw at Jokic/Embiid/Giannis, as well as to manage the restrictions on availability of KP and Horford.

Yeah, maybe if we had a guy like Rob Williams, it could really make a difference. It would also be cool if we had a guy like Brogdon who could come in and get some easy buckets when the team is reeling. And how awesome would it be if we had those two guys along with a top 10 pick in this draft and a 2029 1st to possibly make moves with at the deadline?

[SparzWizard]

This game, like so many games lately, reinforces in my mind that the team needs another big body up front. Switching from KP to Horford guarding Jokic was somewhat effective, but Jokic adjusted and wore him down. The team still needs another body to throw at Jokic/Embiid/Giannis, as well as to manage the restrictions on availability of KP and Horford.

Yeah, maybe if we had a guy like Rob Williams, it could really make a difference. It would also be cool if we had a guy like Brogdon who could come in and get some easy buckets when the team is reeling. And how awesome would it be if we had those two guys along with a top 10 pick in this draft and a 2029 1st to possibly make moves with at the deadline?

I wouldn't even bank on Rob suiting up that night, he'll be in street clothes.

If the C's kept the same core from last year (with Smart too), they probably be a middling playoff team pack or mid .500.

[jambr380]

This game, like so many games lately, reinforces in my mind that the team needs another big body up front. Switching from KP to Horford guarding Jokic was somewhat effective, but Jokic adjusted and wore him down. The team still needs another body to throw at Jokic/Embiid/Giannis, as well as to manage the restrictions on availability of KP and Horford.

Yeah, maybe if we had a guy like Rob Williams, it could really make a difference. It would also be cool if we had a guy like Brogdon who could come in and get some easy buckets when the team is reeling. And how awesome would it be if we had those two guys along with a top 10 pick in this draft and a 2029 1st to possibly make moves with at the deadline?

I wouldn't even bank on Rob suiting up that night, he'll be in street clothes.

If the C's kept the same core from last year (with Smart too), they probably be a middling playoff team pack or mid .500.

Lol - they won 57 games last year and were one Tatum ankle sprain from being in b2b Finals. I didn't mention Smart because (even though he was my favorite player) you have to do the KP deal 100/100 times - especially with the 2 1sts coming back. The Jrue deal was an all-in move that absolutely needs to propel us to a Title. If it doesn't, we gave up young semi-star players and valuable picks just to continue spinning in place.

I do genuinely like Jrue, but his age, contract, and acquisition cost make the trade a huge risk that might not have been necessary. He needs to play like a near All-Star in big games, or at least be as good as Marcus Smart. The MIL and DEN games are concerning and hopefully not indicative of a trend.

[Phantom255x]

This team does need a 3rd big to throw at Embiid/Giannis/Bam/Jokic/AD/Allen 

I'm not at all saying we should have re-signed G-Will, but G-Will did fill that role solidly over the past few postseason runs when Horford and/or Timelord were out or dealing with foul trouble.

Right now I guess that guy is Kornet which inspires no confidence. If yesterday's game is an indicator based on how both teams played and used rotations, Kornet only got 8 minutes and it was obvious they tried to not have him get involved with Jokic.

[Neurotic Guy]

This game, like so many games lately, reinforces in my mind that the team needs another big body up front. Switching from KP to Horford guarding Jokic was somewhat effective, but Jokic adjusted and wore him down. The team still needs another body to throw at Jokic/Embiid/Giannis, as well as to manage the restrictions on availability of KP and Horford.

Yeah, maybe if we had a guy like Rob Williams, it could really make a difference. It would also be cool if we had a guy like Brogdon who could come in and get some easy buckets when the team is reeling. And how awesome would it be if we had those two guys along with a top 10 pick in this draft and a 2029 1st to possibly make moves with at the deadline?

Cs have JT, JB, KP, DW, JH, and Payton Pritchard all who can get buckets and create for themselves. And in addition have Al and Sam who make a good % of open looks. Sam needs just  a small opening to get off a good shot. Thats a BEVY of offensive options. I’m with others that another big with muscle should be the preferred get. 

[Vermont Green]

Jokic and Murray went 29 for 43, Tatum and Brown went 15 for 43.  That is your game right there.  Neither level of shooting is sustainable.

Porzingis did have a lot of trouble defending Jokic.  A lot of players do.  That is something we are going to need to figure out before we play them in the finals.  We play a 1 big line up which most advocate for, until it doesn't work.

[Who]

Jokic was Dirk-like with those mid-post and low post fallaways. Beautiful to watch.

Lethal one-on-one scorer.

[jpotter33]

Jokic and Murray went 29 for 43, Tatum and Brown went 15 for 43.  That is your game right there.  Neither level of shooting is sustainable.

Porzingis did have a lot of trouble defending Jokic.  A lot of players do.  That is something we are going to need to figure out before we play them in the finals.  We play a 1 big line up which most advocate for, until it doesn't work.

But that's the thing - the one big lineup was absolutely working until Joe decided to counter and go big to have Al (try to) cover Jokic. KP had 15 in the first quarter, which was primarily off the pick and pop that Jokic had no chance of defending due to being too slow.

As good as Jokic was yesterday, he was hemorrhaging points defensively when asked to guard anyone on the perimeter. Hopefully it's something we hammer home playing them moving forward.

[smokeablount]

Jokic and Murray went 29 for 43, Tatum and Brown went 15 for 43.  That is your game right there.  Neither level of shooting is sustainable.

Porzingis did have a lot of trouble defending Jokic.  A lot of players do.  That is something we are going to need to figure out before we play them in the finals.  We play a 1 big line up which most advocate for, until it doesn't work.

I seem to be the only one taking this as a positive.

Their top 2 blew our top 2 out of the water, Jokic was playing for the coach who passed away, and the Nuggets summoned 100% effort when we missed a ton of shots and weren’t good… and they only won by a bucket.

I mean, what do they do if we play well? It’s not like their defense stymied us. Have Jokic and Murray shoot 40 for 43?

[Who]

wrong thread

Since I posted here by accident. Here are Jokic's buckets from last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqvEoSzaU-U

He went to work on Porzingis early and Horford late. His moves are amazing. Not sure he used the same move twice against either defender. Always keeping them on their toes not knowing what he was going to do.