Shams: Expects Celtics to be active before trade deadline

[yelkao]

I mean the Celtics have the 5th highest payroll in the league and look set to take over the top spot next year so I’m not sure Wyc needs to be accused of being frugal. Maybe the team just didn’t value Grant at the number he wanted / ultimately got? I can’t say I’ve been watching the Celtics play and have thought - ‘Man they really need Grant out there right now.’

[Surferdad]

How about Kelly Olynyk? Unlike Drummond, Kelly can shoot which means the C's don't have to change their offense when KP is not on the floor and he won't be automatically fouled like Drummond.

Kelly makes $12.1mm this season. Ainge would want some decent pieces back and maybe pick(s). It's a win-now idea as I'm not sure they would be able to re-sign him.

Article is from September:
https://www.si.com/college/gonzaga/basketball/will-the-utah-jazz-trade-kelly-olynyk

[ozgod]

I mean the Celtics have the 5th highest payroll in the league and look set to take over the top spot next year so I’m not sure Wyc needs to be accused of being frugal. Maybe the team just didn’t value Grant at the number he wanted / ultimately got? I can’t say I’ve been watching the Celtics play and have thought - ‘Man they really need Grant out there right now.’

I'm sure he will be until every possible position of weakness is covered to everyone's satisfaction...it's not our money after all 

[Roy H.]

Contending teams like Boston, Oklahoma City and Dallas have shown great interest in Isaiah Stewart, league sources tell The Athletic. 1 hour ago – via James L. Edwards III @ The Athletic

I don't think our interest was recent.  It would be hard to make the math work; Stewart's salary counts as $13 million incoming, but only $5 million or so outgoing.

[ozgod]

In any case, the days of old when people like Lacob and Ballmer spent with abandon and to hell with the luxury tax are going to be a thing of the past for the most part...not that frugality will suddenly be in vogue, but the second apron with its roster building penalties will require teams to not necessarily be frugal, but to be very intelligent with their spending. We are already $5m over the second apron as it is, because our top six players alone already cost $165.7m...so we're over the luxury tax just with those six players. The remaining 8 cost us $17.7m, for our total active roster cap of $183.4m. Add the dead money and cap holds for Blake and Kabengele and that puts us as $187.3m, which is $5m over the 2nd apron.

I did a graphic of this to show how much our top six are costing us as a proportion of the total cap.

click to enlarge


Dishing out huge, overvalued contracts to fringe players as insurance to make everyone feel good isn't going to be particularly intelligent if we want to maintain some type of roster flexibility - as a reminder this year everyone gets a pass on going over the second apron but next year they go into effect. As a reminder the penalties for going over both the first and second aprons are:

First apron ($172m)

• Teams cannot acquire a player in a sign-and-trade if that player keeps them above the apron
• Teams cannot sign a player waived during the regular season whose salary was over the $12.2 million midlevel exception
• Salary matching in trades must be within 110 percent, rather than 125 percent for teams not above the apron

Second apron ($182.5m)

• No access to the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception
• Teams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
• Teams cannot include cash in a trade
• Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
• First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)[l/i]
  
  • A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons
  
  I'm trying to think of scenarios where it would be worth going over the second apron for multiple years after this year. Maybe if we were in total, absolute win-now mode, we didn't anticipate changing our team, Wyc was prepared to mortgage the future, and we trusted we weren't going to get any injuries that would require us to trade anyone...maybe in those scenarios it would be worth it?

[Phantom255x]

Contending teams like Boston, Oklahoma City and Dallas have shown great interest in Isaiah Stewart, league sources tell The Athletic. 1 hour ago – via James L. Edwards III @ The Athletic

I don't think our interest was recent.  It would be hard to make the math work; Stewart's salary counts as $13 million incoming, but only $5 million or so outgoing.

It's a shame, because Stewart IMO would be the perfect Horford replacement down the road for us. But since he signed that extension is seems very unlikely to happen.

[Celtics2021]

Contending teams like Boston, Oklahoma City and Dallas have shown great interest in Isaiah Stewart, league sources tell The Athletic. 1 hour ago – via James L. Edwards III @ The Athletic

I don't think our interest was recent.  It would be hard to make the math work; Stewart's salary counts as $13 million incoming, but only $5 million or so outgoing.

Yeah, I have to imagine we inquired before he signed his extension, because he would have fit into the TPE if he and the Pistons couldn’t come to an agreement.

[timpiker]

I really don't think I want to see any changes.  Unless there's a great fire sale somewhere, if not, NO thanks.

[mef730]

In any case, the days of old when people like Lacob and Ballmer spent with abandon and to hell with the luxury tax are going to be a thing of the past for the most part...not that frugality will suddenly be in vogue, but the second apron with its roster building penalties will require teams to not necessarily be frugal, but to be very intelligent with their spending. We are already $5m over the second apron as it is, because our top six players alone already cost $165.7m...so we're over the luxury tax just with those six players. The remaining 8 cost us $17.7m, for our total active roster cap of $183.4m. Add the dead money and cap holds for Blake and Kabengele and that puts us as $187.3m, which is $5m over the 2nd apron.

I did a graphic of this to show how much our top six are costing us as a proportion of the total cap.

click to enlarge


Dishing out huge, overvalued contracts to fringe players as insurance to make everyone feel good isn't going to be particularly intelligent if we want to maintain some type of roster flexibility - as a reminder this year everyone gets a pass on going over the second apron but next year they go into effect. As a reminder the penalties for going over both the first and second aprons are:

First apron ($172m)

• Teams cannot acquire a player in a sign-and-trade if that player keeps them above the apron
• Teams cannot sign a player waived during the regular season whose salary was over the $12.2 million midlevel exception
• Salary matching in trades must be within 110 percent, rather than 125 percent for teams not above the apron

Second apron ($182.5m)

• No access to the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception
• Teams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
• Teams cannot include cash in a trade
• Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
• First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)[l/i]
  
  • A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons
  
  I'm trying to think of scenarios where it would be worth going over the second apron for multiple years after this year. Maybe if we were in total, absolute win-now mode, we didn't anticipate changing our team, Wyc was prepared to mortgage the future, and we trusted we weren't going to get any injuries that would require us to trade anyone...maybe in those scenarios it would be worth it?

TP, thank you. I officially appoint you the new Saltlover.

[Vermont Green]

Contending teams like Boston, Oklahoma City and Dallas have shown great interest in Isaiah Stewart, league sources tell The Athletic. 1 hour ago – via James L. Edwards III @ The Athletic

I don't think our interest was recent.  It would be hard to make the math work; Stewart's salary counts as $13 million incoming, but only $5 million or so outgoing.

Clearly this writer did not understand this.  DET is over the cap so they can't just take back the excess salary that the Celtics would need to send out to make up the $8M difference in the incoming vs. outgoing salary allocation.  Here is a trade that works (I am not suggesting this, just trying to show everyone an example):

To Boston:
Harris              $19.9M (Exp.)
Burks              $10.4M (Exp.)
Stewart             $5.3M (4 @ $15M after)

To DET:
Holiday            $36.8M
Brissett             $2.1M
Mykhailiuk         $2.0M

What you have to do is dilute the $8M incoming/outgoing differential enough so that both teams are within allowable tolerance for matching.  For example, if you substitute Wiseman ($12.1M) for Harris, it doesn't work for DET; they are taking back too much.  If Boston sends out any less, then the $8M "penalty" isn't diluted enough and they are taking back too much.

It is a very tricky needle to thread to make a trade work.

[Celtics2021]

I wouldn’t mind a mild wing upgrade near the deadline.  Svi, Stevens, and Brissett works for Osman if my mental math is correct.  Nothing special, just a more competent 9th/10th man (depending if the 9th man is a big or a wing that night).  I’d think the price is 1-2 second rounders (depending on which ones since we have varying quality), and Brad clearly has a good trading relationship with San Antonio.

[RodyTur10]

I really don't think I want to see any changes.  Unless there's a great fire sale somewhere, if not, NO thanks.

Me too. I'm fine with all these restrictions. If the time comes to consider trading Holiday or Brown due to their high salary, that same salary will make it relatively easy to find a trade for smaller contracts. The last penalty "A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons" is a bit weird, since the solution is obvious: just trade it in advance (there'll always be teams interested in picks).

Since I don't want to repeat the "may-have-to-trade-Brown"-drum, and he has been very good lately and finding a better match would be difficult, I state that the Celtics should keep the following core together for a long time at any cost (Holiday and Horford are not included, because of their age): White, Hauser, Brown, Tatum and Porzingis.

That group guarantees the Celtics being a contender for years (devastating injuries aside).
And I'm feeling more and more that Pritchard is also going to prove his worth.

[footey]

Seems focus should be on what $6mm TPE plus 2nd round pick(s) could garner.  Would hate to waste that asset.

[Celtics2021]

Seems focus should be on what $6mm TPE plus 2nd round pick(s) could garner.  Would hate to waste that asset.

I don’t think it’s a huge asset — it’s more of a coincidental one that came with the second rounders we got for Grant.  I also think the best time to use that is at the draft — the most interesting players who fit into that exception are guys on rookie deals, and you might find a team willing to move on from a player on draft night when they have extra picks rather than midseason.

[Vermont Green]

Seems focus should be on what $6mm TPE plus 2nd round pick(s) could garner.  Would hate to waste that asset.

I don’t think it’s a huge asset — it’s more of a coincidental one that came with the second rounders we got for Grant.  I also think the best time to use that is at the draft — the most interesting players who fit into that exception are guys on rookie deals, and you might find a team willing to move on from a player on draft night when they have extra picks rather than midseason.

Even if this is true (and it makes sense), I suspect that there is plenty of focus within the organization to explore what could be done now or at the deadline, with the TPE, even if the options are limited.  You can't combine a TPE, which is unfortunate, if you could add in Brissett and Mykhailiuk and get this up to $10M, there would be a lot more options.  But you can't, so it is what it is.

I think a consideration in this is the likelihood that Blake Griffin is coming back at some point.  If he is, then he is probably as useful as the player you could get with the TPE for the 15th slot.  If not, if he is definitely retired, then I think it is a little more likely that they use it to get someone, say a Muscala type player, just to have another big on the bench.  Another option is that they "promote" Queta for the playoff roster (or earlier), and he is the 15th guy.

In any case, I suspect that this TPE is very much "on the market".  Maybe someone better than Queta or Muscala or Griffin ends up available; a player needs to be moved to clear a roster spot for a bigger trade, whatever.  All kinds of things tend to come up.  If not, you go to plan B or C or D.