Celtics (4-0) at Nets (3-2) Game #5 11/4/23

[Goldstar88]

That might have been Luke Kornet’s best game.. Ever.

[RodyTur10]

Last season we didn't get the most out of the roster. A couple of guys were unreliable. Stevens acted on this and reshaped the roster. Brogdon and Timelord due to unfortunate repeating injuries. I wish them the best in Portland. I'm hoping we'll see Timelord as a DPOY-candidate again.

G-Will. It was clear he was feeling somewhat disgruntled or underappreciated. His mouth was always bigger than his play. But a larger role was not to be found in Boston. Alongside Doncic he has all the opportunity to prove himself as a starting forward.

Smart. With "the cobra" it was a love-hate affair. Defensive plays that only he could do and huge hustle plays in the clutch. However he didn't accept his role. He thought he was the third best player and thus the third in the hierarchy and played like it. That's why he had to go and I'm still stunned how Stevens was able to get Porzingis for him. Despite the rightful decision to trade Smart he'll always be in our remembrance as a true Celtic.

That lack of accepting reality is also an issue with Brown. It's not about hating a player. In truth I like all our players. But when I watch the Celtics play I know that Brown is NOT our second best player, despite him playing like it. You can discuss Porzingis, White and Holiday, but it's not Brown. He needs to accept that he's not a superstar like the others have.

In our mission to win the Championship it's the one thing that could hold the Celtics back. Sure the bench is struggling, but also in that regard the selfish or overly-optimistic "Leeroy-Jenkins"-plays (stole this reference) by Brown are frustrating. I'm not saying that you could replace Brown by a borderline-rotation guy like Brissett. But if you could hypothetically clone Horford for his place I'm not sure it would hurt and Horford is half the player he once was.

Some Celtics statistical facts

Worst DBPM last season (800+ minutes): Brown -0.2
Raptor last season (800+ minutes): Brown 0.2 (worst besides G.Williams)
Worst BPM this season so far (starters): Brown -0.9 (all other starters 3.2 or higher!!!)

Missed shots per game with FG% (7+)

New York: Tatum 9 (59%), Brown 7 (36%), Porzingis 7 (53%)
Miami: Tatum 13 (40%), Brown 11 (50%)
Washington: Brown 11 (54%), Pritchard 8 (0%), Hauser 7 (30%), Tatum 7 (66%)
Indiana: Brown 8 (46%)
Brooklyn: Brown 15 (31%), Tatum 10 (50%), Holiday 9 (40%)

So Brown isn't just missing a lot of shots in absolute numbers, but also relatively as his FG% is indicating that he should not take that many.

Jayson Tatum 68 TS% on 20 SPG with 18.7 PIE (player impact estimate) and .32 WS/48
Jaylen Brown 55 TS% on 19 SPG with 10.6 PIE and .18 WS/48
Kristaps Porzingis 74 TS% on 11 SPG with 13.4 PIE and .30 WS/48
Jrue Holiday 62 TS% on 11 SPG with 12.2 PIE and .22 WS/48
Derrick White 82 TS% on 9 SPG with 13.8 PIE and .31 WS/48

The sad thing is that if Jaylen would let the offense just come to him and make more effort on defense he'd be perfect for this team. Why is Jaylen with his tremendous athletic abilities a net negative on the defensive end? In this game against Brooklyn we missed White, how come Brown can't remotely cover that loss defensively (and even offensively)? Do we remember one defensive play by Brown from this game? I sure have seen everybody else work their ass off.

[SparzWizard]

Glad I was wrong about the trap game. Big games from Tatum, Kristaps, Jrue and Kornet's best game ever.

5-0, 77-0 to go!

[SparzWizard]

Last season we didn't get the most out of the roster. A couple of guys were unreliable. Stevens acted on this and reshaped the roster. Brogdon and Timelord due to unfortunate repeating injuries. I wish them the best in Portland. I'm hoping we'll see Timelord as a DPOY-candidate again.

G-Will. It was clear he was feeling somewhat disgruntled or underappreciated. His mouth was always bigger than his play. But a larger role was not to be found in Boston. Alongside Doncic he has all the opportunity to prove himself as a starting forward.

Smart. With "the cobra" it was a love-hate affair. Defensive plays that only he could do and huge hustle plays in the clutch. However he didn't accept his role. He thought he was the third best player and thus the third in the hierarchy and played like it. That's why he had to go and I'm still stunned how Stevens was able to get Porzingis for him. Despite the rightful decision to trade Smart he'll always be in our remembrance as a true Celtic.

That lack of accepting reality is also an issue with Brown. It's not about hating a player. In truth I like all our players. But when I watch the Celtics play I know that Brown is NOT our second best player, despite him playing like it. You can discuss Porzingis, White and Holiday, but it's not Brown. He needs to accept that he's not a superstar like the others have.

In our mission to win the Championship it's the one thing that could hold the Celtics back. Sure the bench is struggling, but also in that regard the selfish or overly-optimistic "Leeroy-Jenkins"-plays (stole this reference) by Brown are frustrating. I'm not saying that you could replace Brown by a borderline-rotation guy like Brissett. But if you could hypothetically clone Horford for his place I'm not sure it would hurt and Horford is half the player he once was.

Some Celtics statistical facts

Worst DBPM last season (800+ minutes): Brown -0.2
Raptor last season (800+ minutes): Brown 0.2 (worst besides G.Williams)
Worst BPM this season so far (starters): Brown -0.9 (all other starters 3.2 or higher!!!)

Missed shots per game with FG% (7+)

New York: Tatum 9 (59%), Brown 7 (36%), Porzingis 7 (53%)
Miami: Tatum 13 (40%), Brown 11 (50%)
Washington: Brown 11 (54%), Pritchard 8 (0%), Hauser 7 (30%), Tatum 7 (66%)
Indiana: Brown 8 (46%)
Brooklyn: Brown 15 (31%), Tatum 10 (50%), Holiday 9 (40%)

So Brown isn't just missing a lot of shots in absolute numbers, but also relatively as his FG% is indicating that he should not take that many.

Jayson Tatum 68 TS% on 20 SPG with 18.7 PIE (player impact estimate) and .32 WS/48
Jaylen Brown 55 TS% on 19 SPG with 10.6 PIE and .18 WS/48
Kristaps Porzingis 74 TS% on 11 SPG with 13.4 PIE and .30 WS/48
Jrue Holiday 62 TS% on 11 SPG with 12.2 PIE and .22 WS/48
Derrick White 82 TS% on 9 SPG with 13.8 PIE and .31 WS/48

The sad thing is that if Jaylen would let the offense just come to him and make more effort on defense he'd be perfect for this team. Why is Jaylen with his tremendous athletic abilities a net negative on the defensive end? In this game against Brooklyn we missed White, how come Brown can't remotely cover that loss defensively (and even offensively)? Do we remember one defensive play by Brown from this game? I sure have seen everybody else work their ass off.

Stevens overpaid Brown that $303M contract, he needs to play like THE second best player on the team and consistently.

[byennie]

Tatum + Porzingis is the best offensive duo we've had in a long time.
Holiday + White is the best defensive duo in a long time.
Brown is awfully good as the wildcard (even if we'd like him to be more).

Stay healthy, stay healthy, stay healthy will be the key, because it drops off a cliff from there.

[GreenEnvy]

Last season we didn't get the most out of the roster. A couple of guys were unreliable. Stevens acted on this and reshaped the roster. Brogdon and Timelord due to unfortunate repeating injuries. I wish them the best in Portland. I'm hoping we'll see Timelord as a DPOY-candidate again.

G-Will. It was clear he was feeling somewhat disgruntled or underappreciated. His mouth was always bigger than his play. But a larger role was not to be found in Boston. Alongside Doncic he has all the opportunity to prove himself as a starting forward.

Smart. With "the cobra" it was a love-hate affair. Defensive plays that only he could do and huge hustle plays in the clutch. However he didn't accept his role. He thought he was the third best player and thus the third in the hierarchy and played like it. That's why he had to go and I'm still stunned how Stevens was able to get Porzingis for him. Despite the rightful decision to trade Smart he'll always be in our remembrance as a true Celtic.

That lack of accepting reality is also an issue with Brown. It's not about hating a player. In truth I like all our players. But when I watch the Celtics play I know that Brown is NOT our second best player, despite him playing like it. You can discuss Porzingis, White and Holiday, but it's not Brown. He needs to accept that he's not a superstar like the others have.

In our mission to win the Championship it's the one thing that could hold the Celtics back. Sure the bench is struggling, but also in that regard the selfish or overly-optimistic "Leeroy-Jenkins"-plays (stole this reference) by Brown are frustrating. I'm not saying that you could replace Brown by a borderline-rotation guy like Brissett. But if you could hypothetically clone Horford for his place I'm not sure it would hurt and Horford is half the player he once was.

Some Celtics statistical facts

Worst DBPM last season (800+ minutes): Brown -0.2
Raptor last season (800+ minutes): Brown 0.2 (worst besides G.Williams)
Worst BPM this season so far (starters): Brown -0.9 (all other starters 3.2 or higher!!!)

Missed shots per game with FG% (7+)

New York: Tatum 9 (59%), Brown 7 (36%), Porzingis 7 (53%)
Miami: Tatum 13 (40%), Brown 11 (50%)
Washington: Brown 11 (54%), Pritchard 8 (0%), Hauser 7 (30%), Tatum 7 (66%)
Indiana: Brown 8 (46%)
Brooklyn: Brown 15 (31%), Tatum 10 (50%), Holiday 9 (40%)

So Brown isn't just missing a lot of shots in absolute numbers, but also relatively as his FG% is indicating that he should not take that many.

Jayson Tatum 68 TS% on 20 SPG with 18.7 PIE (player impact estimate) and .32 WS/48
Jaylen Brown 55 TS% on 19 SPG with 10.6 PIE and .18 WS/48
Kristaps Porzingis 74 TS% on 11 SPG with 13.4 PIE and .30 WS/48
Jrue Holiday 62 TS% on 11 SPG with 12.2 PIE and .22 WS/48
Derrick White 82 TS% on 9 SPG with 13.8 PIE and .31 WS/48

The sad thing is that if Jaylen would let the offense just come to him and make more effort on defense he'd be perfect for this team. Why is Jaylen with his tremendous athletic abilities a net negative on the defensive end? In this game against Brooklyn we missed White, how come Brown can't remotely cover that loss defensively (and even offensively)? Do we remember one defensive play by Brown from this game? I sure have seen everybody else work their ass off.

Stevens overpaid Brown that $303M contract, he needs to play like THE second best player on the team and consistently.

I don’t think anyone - Steven’s included - but Brown thinks he’s worth that contract.

But Stevens and ownership have to believe we are so close that not giving him his max isn’t worth the distraction that it would’ve caused. Having that be a distraction all season would be detrimental to the big picture. Giving him his payday while easing his offensive burden with Porzingis and Holiday should allow him to play looser on offense and dig deeper defensively (I firmly believe he’s easily our worst defender of our top-6).

The contract is what it is. I didn’t like it. But I understand it.

[tenn_smoothie]

GreenEnvy, "The contract is what it is. I didn’t like it. But I understand it."


I don't like it either, but after another CS member explained all the options and probable outcomes last summer of Brown's signing or not signing, I understood perfectly. Because of all the complex rules of the CBA, the Celts really had no choice but to sign him, unless they were willing to inflict untold damage to the teams chances of winning banners with the current group, who I think are overdue. And they have the much better option of trading Brown after this season if the chemistry and on-court compatibility go south.

[ozgod]

Stevens overpaid Brown that $303M contract, he needs to play like THE second best player on the team and consistently.

I don’t think anyone - Steven’s included - but Brown thinks he’s worth that contract.

But Stevens and ownership have to believe we are so close that not giving him his max isn’t worth the distraction that it would’ve caused. Having that be a distraction all season would be detrimental to the big picture. Giving him his payday while easing his offensive burden with Porzingis and Holiday should allow him to play looser on offense and dig deeper defensively (I firmly believe he’s easily our worst defender of our top-6).

The contract is what it is. I didn’t like it. But I understand it.

I don't like it either, but after another CS member explained all the options and probable outcomes last summer of Brown's signing or not signing, I understood perfectly. Because of all the complex rules of the CBA, the Celts really had no choice but to sign him, unless they were willing to inflict untold damage to the teams chances of winning banners with the current group, who I think are overdue. And they have the much better option of trading Brown after this season if the chemistry and on-court compatibility go south.

I think that was me...I'm sure nobody but Jaylen thinks he is worth $300m. Not anyone in the league, nor his teammates, nor Stevens or the front office. But it was really more an issue of keeping control of him as an asset, since his contract ($31m this season) was due to expire end of this season.

As Tenn says the CBA dictates how players are remunerated, based on their achievements. Based on the CBA player contracts are negotiated on a sliding scale, with a max contract for less than 6 years at 25% of the total cap, 7-9 years at 30%, and 35% for 10+ years. The supermax allows players with less than 10 years to get 35% of the total cap in salary in a 5 year contract as long as they meet one of these criteria, such as a) be named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season or 2 of the last 3; b) be named DPOY in the most recent season or 2 of the last 3; or c) be named MVP in any of the last 3 seasons.

Jaylen met criteria A so he qualified. So the $60m figure didn't get pulled out of the air in negotiation - that is basically the average value of the contract over 5 years, based on a salary cap of $142m for 2024-25, which is when it begins. So for the 5 years he gets paid $49.7m, $53.7m, $57.7m, $61.7m and $63.7m (8% increase approx. each year). It's oversimplifying a bit but the main point is that it is 35% of the cap. The negotiation would have been around, is Jaylen worth 35% of the cap? When he made the All-NBA 2nd team that added a lot of leverage to him in his negotiation.

So knowing that he was eligible for a supermax, which is 35% of the 2024-25 cap of $142m, the Celtics really had 4 choices:

• don't give him an extension, wait till the end of the season, make him play a "prove it" year. Then you have to accept the risk of losing him for nothing end of season when he hits free agency and not being able to replace him because even after losing him they would still be over the cap. Because we were already $44.2m over the cap before this extension was signed, if Jaylen wasn't signed to an extension and he walks away in free agency, his $31m salary coming off still means we are over the salary cap, and so we can't sign some $31m guy out there to replace him. The only players you can exceed the cap to sign are players that you have the Bird rights to. Which makes losing him for nothing an undesirable proposition because you can't replace him like for like;
• refuse to overpay and offer less, offer him "what he's worth" (20% of the cap? 25%, 30%?), risk getting rejected and losing him for nothing in free agency and it would be the same deal;
• trade him midseason before his contract ends. Other teams would know he could be a 1 year rental and would hit free agency end of season which could reduce his market of teams willing to trade for him; or
• give him the 5 year supermax with the risk that it would be an overpay. You take the risk that it may be hard to trade him if they decided to if his perceived value tanked because of injury or playing bad, but on the plus side you still have control of him

These are financial decisions that front offices always have to deal with when it comes to managing financial assets, which players are. I'm guessing if Brad had refused to extend him or lowballed him an offer below what the CBA said he was entitled to by achievement, and he walked for nothing end of season and we couldn't replace him with anyone, we would be calling for his resignation. I'm sure they looked at trading him, maybe for Dame, but my guess is Portland balked because of the fear he would be a rental and wouldn't want to play for a rebuilding team when he hits free agency.

So that leaves signing him to the supermax...sure it was an overpay, but they maintain control of him, and he's a fungible asset that a lot of teams would covet, especially now that whoever trades for him gets him for 5 years. I'm sure if Brad decided to trade him next year (can't trade him this year) he would have his choice of teams, the challenge would be finding a decent enough return for him for us. I just don't see any scenario where we doing anything other than signing him to the supermax gave us better options going forward. The bet is that he's not going to be a bad stock that tanks in value over the life of the contract. And who knows, by the 4th year this contract may end up being a steal for us if he improves enough 

[SparzWizard]

A thorough explanation by ozgod. Hate that deal, but have to live with it. Hope it comes with a few banners.

Imagine we flipped him for Durant back then. That would've been insane 

[ozgod]

A thorough explanation by ozgod. Hate that deal, but have to live with it. Hope it comes with a few banners.

Imagine we flipped him for Durant back then. That would've been insane 

If he contributes to even one banner, even if it's part of an ensemble cast, I think Brad would have all the leverage if he then decided to trade Jaylen...teams would be lining up. The biggest risk to us is if he deteriorates, which would make our overpay worse and make it harder to trade him...or if he has an injury that robs him of his athleticism, like an ACL or something. Then we're stuck with an overpriced asset. In a way players are like stocks...you hold them when they're worth a lot, or when they are outperforming or overweight, and you try to figure out if fundamentally they've crested and it's time to trade them before other people figure it out. Hopefully Jaylen has some intrinsic value and isn't a meme stock that will tank in value and leave us holding the bag 

[Neurotic Guy]

I think there are 29 other teams who would love to have Jaylen.  A few would balk at his contract, but as a player they’d love to have him.  So given that the Cs are over the cap with or without Jaylen, and given that they’ve got this core together for 3 years during which his max deal becomes a little less daunting as cap rises and more players receive the max, I’m feeling ecstatic about this starting five and really glad JB is part of it.

[cman88]

in context, Giannis and I think AD already now are paid more or about the same as brown with their extensions. his contract was always a symptom of being first. and as more guys come up they will be paid more and he will move down the list. its how it works...

Brown had a bad night, but he also looked great the couple games before when tatum started off abit slower and brown had it going.

the only reason we are looking at brown the way we do is because we have Jayson Tatum...who is clearly a top 5 player the way he's playing and unstoppable. that doesn't mean brown is a bad player

personally, i'd like to see brown be more patient on his offense. when he gets in the post and backs his player down and goes for that mid-range he's pretty unstoppable. but sometimes just plays too fast. even scal mentioned it

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Came back to the thread for a feel-good party after another win.

I found a bunch of grumps looking for reasons to be unhappy with the team.

If we can't find someone to hate because we are losing, we will find someone to hate because we're not perfect.

[Vermont Green]

I thought it was interesting to finally get to see some extended minutes with the "big" lineup of Horford and Porzingis playing together.  In this game, the main unit of Holiday, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford were on the court for 24 minutes and put up a +15.  Just for comparison, the "small" starters in the NYK game were +9 in about 20 minutes.  In the MIA game, the small starters were +5 in 21 minutes.  In aggregate over the first 4 games, the small unit averaged +14.5 in 18.1 minutes (they had very strong numbers vs. WAS and IND).

There are not sweeping conclusions to be drawn from this but it is fair albeit limited data.  I think the NYK and MIA games are more comparable to BKN in terms of competition.  The small unit had 4 games to get into the groove of things, this was really the first extended opportunity for the "big" starting unit, only 8 minutes total for the "big", with Holiday unit in the first 4 games for a +3.  White and the big unit only has 1 minute together in the first 4 games).  Overall, the team has been better with White over Holiday so you can speculate that the "big" unit with White might be better than the "big" unit with Holiday.

Again, I am not suggesting that this proves anything.  I am definitely pro-big lineup but I like Horford off the bench too.  An interesting thing to me was that when Porzingis was playing with Horford, he seem to be better in the rim protector role.  He still scored and scored very efficiently but having him out there with a defensive minded big (Horford), who is more comfortable on the perimeter, seemed to allow Porzingis to play differently.  It may have been Porzingis' best overall game.

[Phantom255x]

I don't like that Tatum had to play 41 minutes last night, and will probably have to log a bunch of 40+ minute games in close contests because the bench just isn't providing enough.

We need another big man for sure, which I'm sure will get in the deadline. But we still need at least a little more from Hauser and Pritchard on a nightly basis.