Horford's role in the offense

[Roy H.]

I'm sure that most of us have observed that Horford's role in the offense has basically to become a pure outside shooter.  Looking at the past several seasons:

2019:  10.6 FGAs; 53.5% FG%; 7.6 2PAs; 60.4% 2P%; 3.0 3PAs; 36.0 3PT%; 4.2 APG

2020: (PHI) 10.6 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 6.4 2PAs; 51.6% 2P%; 4.2 3PAs; 35.0 3PT%; 4.0 APG

2021: (OKC) 12.9 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 7.4 2PAs; 51.0% 2P%; 5.4 3PAs; 36.8% 3PT%; 4.4 APG

2022:  8.2 FGAs; 46.7% FG%; 4.4 2PAs; 58.2% 2P%; 3.8 3PAs; 33.6 3PT%; 3.4 APG

2023:  7.6 FGAs; 47.6% FG%; 2.4 2PAs; 53.9% 2P%; 5.2 3PAs; 44.6 3PT%; 3.0 APG

Horford was very effective in his role during the regular season, but like with a lot of players, when his outside shot left him he didn't contribute in other ways.

That 2.4 two point attempts per game seems abnormally low for a guy that we expect to play a lot of center.  Is that a missed opportunity?

[keevsnick]

I'm sure that most of us have observed that Horford's role in the offense has basically to become a pure outside shooter.  Looking at the past several seasons:

2019:  10.6 FGAs; 53.5% FG%; 7.6 2PAs; 60.4% 2P%; 3.0 3PAs; 36.0 3PT%; 4.2 APG

2020: (PHI) 10.6 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 6.4 2PAs; 51.6% 2P%; 4.2 3PAs; 35.0 3PT%; 4.0 APG

2021: (OKC) 12.9 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 7.4 2PAs; 51.0% 2P%; 5.4 3PAs; 36.8% 3PT%; 4.4 APG

2022:  8.2 FGAs; 46.7% FG%; 4.4 2PAs; 58.2% 2P%; 3.8 3PAs; 33.6 3PT%; 3.4 APG

2023:  7.6 FGAs; 47.6% FG%; 2.4 2PAs; 53.9% 2P%; 5.2 3PAs; 44.6 3PT%; 3.0 APG

Horford was very effective in his role during the regular season, but like with a lot of players, when his outside shot left him he didn't contribute in other ways.

That 2.4 two point attempts per game seems abnormally low for a guy that we expect to play a lot of center.  Is that a missed opportunity?

He's about to be 37 years old. He's not going to be battling down low for two pointers and he's not going to be throwing down lobs. He is what he is.

[Roy H.]

I'm sure that most of us have observed that Horford's role in the offense has basically to become a pure outside shooter.  Looking at the past several seasons:

2019:  10.6 FGAs; 53.5% FG%; 7.6 2PAs; 60.4% 2P%; 3.0 3PAs; 36.0 3PT%; 4.2 APG

2020: (PHI) 10.6 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 6.4 2PAs; 51.6% 2P%; 4.2 3PAs; 35.0 3PT%; 4.0 APG

2021: (OKC) 12.9 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 7.4 2PAs; 51.0% 2P%; 5.4 3PAs; 36.8% 3PT%; 4.4 APG

2022:  8.2 FGAs; 46.7% FG%; 4.4 2PAs; 58.2% 2P%; 3.8 3PAs; 33.6 3PT%; 3.4 APG

2023:  7.6 FGAs; 47.6% FG%; 2.4 2PAs; 53.9% 2P%; 5.2 3PAs; 44.6 3PT%; 3.0 APG

Horford was very effective in his role during the regular season, but like with a lot of players, when his outside shot left him he didn't contribute in other ways.

That 2.4 two point attempts per game seems abnormally low for a guy that we expect to play a lot of center.  Is that a missed opportunity?

He's about to be 37 years old. He's not going to be battling down low for two pointers and he's not going to be throwing down lobs. He is what he is.

He attempted twice as many twos last year, and almost 3.5x two years ago.  He's fallen off that much?

[wdleehi]

Too many regular season minutes.   His legs died.



I am fine with the shot profile as long as he is hitting them and the minutes drop in the regular season.   

[angryguy77]

Too many regular season minutes.   His legs died.



I am fine with the shot profile as long as he is hitting them and the minutes drop in the regular season.

He played half a season. I don't think a few less games less helps him in a seven game series.

[wdleehi]

Too many regular season minutes.   His legs died.



I am fine with the shot profile as long as he is hitting them and the minutes drop in the regular season.

He played half a season. I don't think a few less games less helps him in a seven game series.

63 games at 30.5 minutes a game.   

At this point and for what they need from him in the playoffs, it's probably time to get that down to around 25 minutes a game in the regular season.  When he is effective on offense (and defense) it makes a significant difference.

[smicker16]

I'm sure that most of us have observed that Horford's role in the offense has basically to become a pure outside shooter.  Looking at the past several seasons:

2019:  10.6 FGAs; 53.5% FG%; 7.6 2PAs; 60.4% 2P%; 3.0 3PAs; 36.0 3PT%; 4.2 APG

2020: (PHI) 10.6 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 6.4 2PAs; 51.6% 2P%; 4.2 3PAs; 35.0 3PT%; 4.0 APG

2021: (OKC) 12.9 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 7.4 2PAs; 51.0% 2P%; 5.4 3PAs; 36.8% 3PT%; 4.4 APG

2022:  8.2 FGAs; 46.7% FG%; 4.4 2PAs; 58.2% 2P%; 3.8 3PAs; 33.6 3PT%; 3.4 APG

2023:  7.6 FGAs; 47.6% FG%; 2.4 2PAs; 53.9% 2P%; 5.2 3PAs; 44.6 3PT%; 3.0 APG

Horford was very effective in his role during the regular season, but like with a lot of players, when his outside shot left him he didn't contribute in other ways.

That 2.4 two point attempts per game seems abnormally low for a guy that we expect to play a lot of center.  Is that a missed opportunity?

He's about to be 37 years old. He's not going to be battling down low for two pointers and he's not going to be throwing down lobs. He is what he is.

He attempted twice as many twos last year, and almost 3.5x two years ago.  He's fallen off that much?

I think he has and I do not think he has any interest going in to the paint to shoot more.  Maybe some more midrange shots, but the league has almost collectively decided that is a bad shot. 

His 2PA were down already significantly last year and considering he took less shots overall this year by .6 it seems to follow a natural decline from the year before unless we think Ime missed using him that way last year too.  And looking at those stats it is tough to say we should limit the 3PA from a guy who shot almost 45%.

The missed opportunity with Horford I feel is in his passing ability.  I do not think we saw him do much of that this year and that to me is not something that declines the same way.  That is where I wish we used him a bit more to set up some looks for others with his passing from the high post. 

[mobilija]

I'm sure that most of us have observed that Horford's role in the offense has basically to become a pure outside shooter.  Looking at the past several seasons:

2019:  10.6 FGAs; 53.5% FG%; 7.6 2PAs; 60.4% 2P%; 3.0 3PAs; 36.0 3PT%; 4.2 APG

2020: (PHI) 10.6 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 6.4 2PAs; 51.6% 2P%; 4.2 3PAs; 35.0 3PT%; 4.0 APG

2021: (OKC) 12.9 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 7.4 2PAs; 51.0% 2P%; 5.4 3PAs; 36.8% 3PT%; 4.4 APG

2022:  8.2 FGAs; 46.7% FG%; 4.4 2PAs; 58.2% 2P%; 3.8 3PAs; 33.6 3PT%; 3.4 APG

2023:  7.6 FGAs; 47.6% FG%; 2.4 2PAs; 53.9% 2P%; 5.2 3PAs; 44.6 3PT%; 3.0 APG

Horford was very effective in his role during the regular season, but like with a lot of players, when his outside shot left him he didn't contribute in other ways.

That 2.4 two point attempts per game seems abnormally low for a guy that we expect to play a lot of center.  Is that a missed opportunity?

He's about to be 37 years old. He's not going to be battling down low for two pointers and he's not going to be throwing down lobs. He is what he is.

He attempted twice as many twos last year, and almost 3.5x two years ago.  He's fallen off that much?

I think he has and I do not think he has any interest going in to the paint to shoot more.  Maybe some more midrange shots, but the league has almost collectively decided that is a bad shot. 

His 2PA were down already significantly last year and considering he took less shots overall this year by .6 it seems to follow a natural decline from the year before unless we think Ime missed using him that way last year too.  And looking at those stats it is tough to say we should limit the 3PA from a guy who shot almost 45%.

The missed opportunity with Horford I feel is in his passing ability.  I do not think we saw him do much of that this year and that to me is not something that declines the same way.  That is where I wish we used him a bit more to set up some looks for others with his passing from the high post.

This.

He should be the central hub 15-20ft from the hoop. Run the same sets with RWill (shoot that jumper Rob!). Both are excellent big man passers.

[Atzar]

The team seems content to let Horford catch on the roll and kick out to the corners rather than attempting to finish.  He even passes up wide open layups at times.  I suspect that's where a lot of his two-point attempts have gone from last year to this one.

[Phantom255x]

The team seems content to let Horford catch on the roll and kick out to the corners rather than attempting to finish.  He even passes up wide open layups at times.  I suspect that's where a lot of his two-point attempts have gone from last year to this one.

Yeah I was watching some highlights this season, and in some of the games (especially the Knicks and Cavaliers ones' after the ASB which were close finishes), Horford literally has an open layup or open-look jumper inside the paint, and he passed those up to guys outside the arc. The team would brick 3s, but then maybe grab an offensive rebound and knock it down, but it was just ugly basketball. Like hot potato trying to get it to anyone who is open behind the arc and shooting, even if the inside is open for an easy 2.

I know we've shot 3s a lot in the past, but I don't recall us "actively" trying to just shoot 3s for the sake of it, as if it's some sort of requirement and not just the result of good ball movement leading to guys wide open. Then you have Tatum with the sidestep 3s, or JB/Smart attempting pull ups in transition.

[keevsnick]

I'm sure that most of us have observed that Horford's role in the offense has basically to become a pure outside shooter.  Looking at the past several seasons:

2019:  10.6 FGAs; 53.5% FG%; 7.6 2PAs; 60.4% 2P%; 3.0 3PAs; 36.0 3PT%; 4.2 APG

2020: (PHI) 10.6 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 6.4 2PAs; 51.6% 2P%; 4.2 3PAs; 35.0 3PT%; 4.0 APG

2021: (OKC) 12.9 FGAs; 45.0% FG%; 7.4 2PAs; 51.0% 2P%; 5.4 3PAs; 36.8% 3PT%; 4.4 APG

2022:  8.2 FGAs; 46.7% FG%; 4.4 2PAs; 58.2% 2P%; 3.8 3PAs; 33.6 3PT%; 3.4 APG

2023:  7.6 FGAs; 47.6% FG%; 2.4 2PAs; 53.9% 2P%; 5.2 3PAs; 44.6 3PT%; 3.0 APG

Horford was very effective in his role during the regular season, but like with a lot of players, when his outside shot left him he didn't contribute in other ways.

That 2.4 two point attempts per game seems abnormally low for a guy that we expect to play a lot of center.  Is that a missed opportunity?

He's about to be 37 years old. He's not going to be battling down low for two pointers and he's not going to be throwing down lobs. He is what he is.

He attempted twice as many twos last year, and almost 3.5x two years ago.  He's fallen off that much?

Honestly? Yes its entirely possible. Don't forget last year he was coming off a season where he sat out half the year in OKC. This year he's coming off a deep playoff run. He just might not have the legs to get that many two pointers. Its just way easier to stand behind the arc and hit shots that way.

To me that shot profile represents kind of what you'd expect from an aging big with some shooting skill. Maybe its a little dramatic, but I'm not sure swapping threes for twos is a good strategey entering Horfords age 37 season.

[gouki88]

I think perhaps more important than his actual shooting, is the fact that relegating Horford to a spot-up shooter alone has taken away the high-post passing and general playmaking he brought to the team. Per-minute it was his worse assist number since 2013-14! That naturally led to less turnovers, but I think it overall hurt the offence.

This was really obvious when we got so categorically thrashed by Miami's zone. If we still had that high-post option in Horford, it likely could have countered it.

[Who]

I'd love to see Horford take some midrange jump-shots. He was one of the best midrange jump-shooters in the league back in Atlanta before he added the three point shot. He was lethal in that 15-18 foot range.

I don't like this abandoning of the midrange. Horford should be a threat from every inch of the floor. Not just behind the three point line or when left wide open at the basket. Make yourself someone that opposition is scared of whenever and wherever you touch the basketball.

Some pick and pop opportunities for Horford around the elbow areas would be a good addition to the offense. Give a different look rather than going for 3s every single time which the opposition knows your are trying to do and are ready to defend it. Too predictable. A little variability into the offense would do wonders.

[Who]

I'd also like to see Horford get 1-2 post ups a night when defended by a smaller guard on a switch. The goal is more to keep him engaged and being aggressive / assertive on offense. Looking to score the ball. More than offensive variety or effectiveness although there is a case to be made there as well.

It's good to give bigs post ups once in a while. Makes them happy. Gets their juices going. Wets their appetite. Improves their effort and engagement in all other areas.

Heck, Larry Brown used to give Ben Wallace a post up 1-2 a game when in DET. Not because Ben was a good post scorer but to keep him engaged on defense & rebounding. Reward the effort to maintain the effort. Always been a valuable tool for keeping bigs engaged on defense & rebounding.

[Who]

The missed opportunity with Horford I feel is in his passing ability.  I do not think we saw him do much of that this year and that to me is not something that declines the same way.  That is where I wish we used him a bit more to set up some looks for others with his passing from the high post.

This.

He should be the central hub 15-20ft from the hoop. Run the same sets with RWill (shoot that jumper Rob!). Both are excellent big man passers.

I think perhaps more important than his actual shooting, is the fact that relegating Horford to a spot-up shooter alone has taken away the high-post passing and general playmaking he brought to the team. Per-minute it was his worse assist number since 2013-14! That naturally led to less turnovers, but I think it overall hurt the offence.

This was really obvious when we got so categorically thrashed by Miami's zone. If we still had that high-post option in Horford, it likely could have countered it.

Agreed with all of these. This is what bugged me the most about Horford's offensive role this year. It was the decline in utility of Horford as the high post facilitator. It is Horford's passing from the high post that helps organize our offense.

How do I say this ...

When the ball-handler has the ball top of the key, he has 5 defenders in between him and the basket. The defense is comfortable. It can see the ball. It can shunt over to reduce space. It is ready for whatever happens next.

When the ball-handler passes the ball inside to Horford at the elbow extended area, now the ball is inside the defense. So say we have 4 perimeter guys. Now the ball is inside the defense. There is only 1 man between Horford and the basket. The 4 defenders on the perimeter are facing the wrong way. They cannot see the ball. They have to change their body shape / angle / positioning. This allows opportunities for off-ball movement. For cutters. Their defender is having to respond to the ball moving, their attention is not on their mark, that allows the offensive player to attack off ball.

Then the ball moves in and out. Rinse and repeat. In to Horford, out again, in to Horford, out again. Keep forcing the defenders to move / to change defensive positioning. Ball inside the defense, outside the defense. Some PnR action. Some cutting. More variety. More unpredictability. More challenging for the opposition defense.

Reducing Horford to a spot up shooter is taking a diverse highly skilled big man and making a stand-still shooter. It is a waste of talent.

It is not just bad for Horford but it is bad for the team because we can be so much more dynamic by playing through Horford's high post passing than we are with all perimeter action.

Horford's high post passing also takes pressure off of our combo guards who are not great playmakers or floor generals. They are adequate. They need help. Likewise with our wings, Tatum & Jaylen, Tatum is a good playmaker but not a great one and Jaylen is not even that. They need help. Horford is that help. He is the guy through his high post passing that can make all that work.

Without using Horford's high post passing, you are now asking average playmakers to play in front of a set defense and try to pick them apart. It is a bad plan. It is ineffective. And it is a waste of Horford's talent.