Fire Joe! ... or critique Joe ... or defend Joe... or worry about Joe's coaching

[footey]

And since we love comparing to last year's team, the big success we had during the playoffs defensively were against the Bucks without Middleton (Giannis was spectacular though, but we did a great job on him) and Miami with an injured Butler and Lowry. Even when we swept the Nets, in part because of the job Tatum did on Durant, our defensive performance wasn't up to par. Same can be said vs Golden State. Now, versus Atlanta our defense was terrible, that much is true, but against Philadelphia it's been overblown. Just to put things into a bit of perspective.

I think that your perspective may be a bit off.

Last year we had a hobbled Timelord (or no Timelord at all).  Yet, we gave up 115+ points once, in 22 playoff games.

This year, we have given up 115+ points in seven out of 12 playoff games.

Yeah, was just getting ready to highlight this as untrue, as well.

Last year we were 2nd overall in defensive rating in the playoffs at 106.3. This year we are 10th (!) in defensive rating at 122.1. Those defensive numbers were also against better offensive rating teams with Brooklyn (2nd - 115.0), GSW (4th - 114.5), Heat (8th - 110.7), and Milwaukee (15th - 103.4) relatively compared to this year’s competition in Atlanta (6th - 114.3) and Philly (8th - 11.6).

So not only are we objectively significantly worse defensively, we’re also significantly worse relative to the rest of the league’s defense. Our defense has been absolutely trash this year, and this is largely due to Joe’s gameplan and philosophy.

Isn’t scoring up league wide this season and average team defense worse? Sure seems so.

[BudweiserCeltic]

And since we love comparing to last year's team, the big success we had during the playoffs defensively were against the Bucks without Middleton (Giannis was spectacular though, but we did a great job on him) and Miami with an injured Butler and Lowry. Even when we swept the Nets, in part because of the job Tatum did on Durant, our defensive performance wasn't up to par. Same can be said vs Golden State. Now, versus Atlanta our defense was terrible, that much is true, but against Philadelphia it's been overblown. Just to put things into a bit of perspective.

I think that your perspective may be a bit off.

Last year we had a hobbled Timelord (or no Timelord at all).  Yet, we gave up 115+ points once, in 22 playoff games.

This year, we have given up 115+ points in seven out of 12 playoff games.

We're giving up 6.3 more points per 100 possessions than last year.

Largely skewed by our first round defensive disaster... which I already pointed out. Against the Sixers it's only been once, the 2nd time was during OT... so hard to take that as a measure in that case. I don't think we went to OT last playoffs, but I could be mistaken.

The point is in 2 of the 4 series our defense was on par or worse than we have shown vs the Sixers (Brooklyn and Golden State) to be so up in arms with our defensive issues vs the Sixers. All the while the 2 series we performed well defensively come with the caveat of going vs hobbled opponents.

Yes, we have our circumstances of limited Timelord, but it's also true for us this year, though he's been available so far for us during the playoffs.

What I'm getting at is that defense, though could be better, is not the disaster against the Sixers as it's been made out to be.

And since we love comparing to last year's team, the big success we had during the playoffs defensively were against the Bucks without Middleton (Giannis was spectacular though, but we did a great job on him) and Miami with an injured Butler and Lowry. Even when we swept the Nets, in part because of the job Tatum did on Durant, our defensive performance wasn't up to par. Same can be said vs Golden State. Now, versus Atlanta our defense was terrible, that much is true, but against Philadelphia it's been overblown. Just to put things into a bit of perspective.

I think that your perspective may be a bit off.

Last year we had a hobbled Timelord (or no Timelord at all).  Yet, we gave up 115+ points once, in 22 playoff games.

This year, we have given up 115+ points in seven out of 12 playoff games.

Yeah, was just getting ready to highlight this as untrue, as well.

Last year we were 2nd overall in defensive rating in the playoffs at 106.3. This year we are 10th (!) in defensive rating at 122.1. Those defensive numbers were also against better offensive rating teams with Brooklyn (2nd - 115.0), GSW (4th - 114.5), Heat (8th - 110.7), and Milwaukee (15th - 103.4) relatively compared to this year’s competition in Atlanta (6th - 114.3) and Philly (8th - 11.6).

So not only are we objectively significantly worse defensively, we’re also significantly worse relative to the rest of the league’s defense. Our defense has been absolutely trash this year, and this is largely due to Joe’s gameplan and philosophy.

Again, skewed with the Atlanta series. We're talking about the Sixers series here.  I think you're incredibly downplaying Sixers offense this season. And for all our ills of the philosophy of Joe's defense strategy, we were actually 3rd if not mistaken in the league this season while having the 2nd best offense. So there's a bit of disconnect of what went on during the season on how we've started the playoffs. Which is a concern, and rightfully so.

The point I'm trying to make, as it concerns the Sixers, is that our defensive struggles are comparable to our performance in some of the series we had last playoffs despite how historically good our defense was in the 2nd half of the season.

We have to do better, our defensive showing vs of the Sixers has been middle of the pack good... we can do better. But it's not the unmitigated disaster that we are being led to believe, at least not how bad it was with Atlanta for sure.

And again, Sixers' offense this year was among the top of the league, no need to downplay that. And we have them underperforming.

[jpotter33]

 https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/05/marcus-smart-admits-joe-mazzulla-deserved-criticism-before-game-6-adjustments.html

Reading this MassLive piece, it seems clear that some of Joe’s struggles have clearly been recognized by the team, and there seems to be some frustration for the deviations from what worked so well last year, particularly with Timelord.

That said, they still sound supportive and seem to be embracing this as more of a collaborative thing trying to help Joe along, especially with the brain drain on the bench. Have to say, I absolutely hate that we’re in this position thanks to a combination of Ime, Brad, and Joe himself, but it’s good to see that the guys are stepping up, acknowledging the issue, abd embracing it to still try and succeed.

[jpotter33]

And since we love comparing to last year's team, the big success we had during the playoffs defensively were against the Bucks without Middleton (Giannis was spectacular though, but we did a great job on him) and Miami with an injured Butler and Lowry. Even when we swept the Nets, in part because of the job Tatum did on Durant, our defensive performance wasn't up to par. Same can be said vs Golden State. Now, versus Atlanta our defense was terrible, that much is true, but against Philadelphia it's been overblown. Just to put things into a bit of perspective.

I think that your perspective may be a bit off.

Last year we had a hobbled Timelord (or no Timelord at all).  Yet, we gave up 115+ points once, in 22 playoff games.

This year, we have given up 115+ points in seven out of 12 playoff games.

Yeah, was just getting ready to highlight this as untrue, as well.

Last year we were 2nd overall in defensive rating in the playoffs at 106.3. This year we are 10th (!) in defensive rating at 122.1. Those defensive numbers were also against better offensive rating teams with Brooklyn (2nd - 115.0), GSW (4th - 114.5), Heat (8th - 110.7), and Milwaukee (15th - 103.4) relatively compared to this year’s competition in Atlanta (6th - 114.3) and Philly (8th - 11.6).

So not only are we objectively significantly worse defensively, we’re also significantly worse relative to the rest of the league’s defense. Our defense has been absolutely trash this year, and this is largely due to Joe’s gameplan and philosophy.

Isn’t scoring up league wide this season and average team defense worse? Sure seems so.

Absolutely. But that’s why I put both the raw, objective numbers as well as the rankings relative to the rest of the league. Clearly performing significantly worse defensively this year, both as a whole and compared to the league as a whole.

[Phantom255x]

Listening to it on sports radio, and yeah I have never seen something like that in my life. A guy straight up publicly saying the coach is clueless. "I know he's getting killed, AND RIGHTFULLY SO" 

[Roy H.]

Good to know that the players feel like the team has been held back by the idiot coach, too.

[johnnygreen]

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/05/marcus-smart-admits-joe-mazzulla-deserved-criticism-before-game-6-adjustments.html

Reading this MassLive piece, it seems clear that some of Joe’s struggles have clearly been recognized by the team, and there seems to be some frustration for the deviations from what worked so well last year, particularly with Timelord.

That said, they still sound supportive and seem to be embracing this as more of a collaborative thing trying to help Joe along, especially with the brain drain on the bench. Have to say, I absolutely hate that we’re in this position thanks to a combination of Ime, Brad, and Joe himself, but it’s good to see that the guys are stepping up, acknowledging the issue, abd embracing it to still try and succeed.

This was totally bushleague of Smart. Does Marcus realize that Ime and Joe have the same amount of head coaching experience? I don't recall him openly mocking Ime like he did Joe last night.

It's the self righteous comments and attitude like this, that I think Smart may need to be traded. That was beyond disrespectful.

[Roy H.]

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/05/marcus-smart-admits-joe-mazzulla-deserved-criticism-before-game-6-adjustments.html

Reading this MassLive piece, it seems clear that some of Joe’s struggles have clearly been recognized by the team, and there seems to be some frustration for the deviations from what worked so well last year, particularly with Timelord.

That said, they still sound supportive and seem to be embracing this as more of a collaborative thing trying to help Joe along, especially with the brain drain on the bench. Have to say, I absolutely hate that we’re in this position thanks to a combination of Ime, Brad, and Joe himself, but it’s good to see that the guys are stepping up, acknowledging the issue, abd embracing it to still try and succeed.

This was totally bushleague of Smart. Does Marcus realize that Ime and Joe have the same amount of head coaching experience? I don't recall him openly mocking Ime like he did Joe last night.

It's the self righteous comments and attitude like this, that I think Smart may need to be traded. That was beyond disrespectful.

Smart should probably keep quiet publicly, but is he wrong?

[BitterJim]

Last year's playoffs: 2nd in DRTG, 10th in ORTG, 2nd in NetRTG
This year's playoffs: 10th in DRTG, 2nd ORTG, 2nd in NetRTG
Shorten 2022 to just the first 2 rounds, and you get 3rd in DRTG, 8th in ORTG, 2nd in NetRTG

No matter how you break it down, this team is really close to how effective it was last year, but with a strong offense and weak defense instead of the other way around. Do I agree with the way this team has focused on offense while mostly ignoring defense? No, and I think if we want to win it all we need to focus on both. But I'm not gonna sit here and pretend that last year's team was flawless and this year's sucks, or that Joe is in over his head because he's making different decisions than I would (not to mention that we lost last year because of our bad offense).

I think the improved offense this regular season taught the players that they could let up on defense and still win, and that's coming back to bite us now (unless they buckle down and commit on both ends). If Joe isn't capable of getting that commitment out of the players then, yeah, replace him with someone who can (if that person even exists...). But don't go around pretending that Ime was great while Joe is an "idiot coach" just because his focus isn't one you like. The only real difference between these two teams is that one dominated with their defense while the other dominates with their offense.

[BitterJim]

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/05/marcus-smart-admits-joe-mazzulla-deserved-criticism-before-game-6-adjustments.html

Reading this MassLive piece, it seems clear that some of Joe’s struggles have clearly been recognized by the team, and there seems to be some frustration for the deviations from what worked so well last year, particularly with Timelord.

That said, they still sound supportive and seem to be embracing this as more of a collaborative thing trying to help Joe along, especially with the brain drain on the bench. Have to say, I absolutely hate that we’re in this position thanks to a combination of Ime, Brad, and Joe himself, but it’s good to see that the guys are stepping up, acknowledging the issue, abd embracing it to still try and succeed.

This was totally bushleague of Smart. Does Marcus realize that Ime and Joe have the same amount of head coaching experience? I don't recall him openly mocking Ime like he did Joe last night.

It's the self righteous comments and attitude like this, that I think Smart may need to be traded. That was beyond disrespectful.

Which quote is "openly mocking" Joe?

I was ecstatic about [Rob starting]. To be able to have Rob in there, he changes the game a lot. Being able to have a lob threat, a rim threat, to be able to protect the rim on the other end. He’s huge for us. And I was proud to have him on the court.
And that just goes to show you Joe’s learning just like all of us. I know he’s been killed a lot, rightfully so. He needs to make some adjustments and he did that. And that’s all you can ask for. Just continue to be the best he can be. And it takes everybody. It’s a full team effort.

It’s different, but it helps us as players. When you think about in the grand scheme, we’re teaching him, as well. We’re teaching ourselves. We get to learn more about ourselves. It allows Jayson, it allows Jaylen, it allows me to be more vocal on the court and to go figure things out, we’re doing it together. It’s not going to be perfect - Joe’s not perfect. He’s been put in a very tough situation this year, and he’s doing the best he can. That’s all we can ask for. We’re going to continue to go out there and work our tails off for him, just like he’s going to continue to work his tail off for us.

I wouldn't call it overly complimentary, but you have to be taking his words in really bad faith to consider them "mocking"

[jpotter33]

Last year's playoffs: 2nd in DRTG, 10th in ORTG, 2nd in NetRTG
This year's playoffs: 10th in DRTG, 2nd ORTG, 2nd in NetRTG
Shorten 2022 to just the first 2 rounds, and you get 3rd in DRTG, 8th in ORTG, 2nd in NetRTG

No matter how you break it down, this team is really close to how effective it was last year, but with a strong offense and weak defense instead of the other way around. Do I agree with the way this team has focused on offense while mostly ignoring defense? No, and I think if we want to win it all we need to focus on both. But I'm not gonna sit here and pretend that last year's team was flawless and this year's sucks, or that Joe is in over his head because he's making different decisions than I would (not to mention that we lost last year because of our bad offense).

I think the improved offense this regular season taught the players that they could let up on defense and still win, and that's coming back to bite us now (unless they buckle down and commit on both ends). If Joe isn't capable of getting that commitment out of the players then, yeah, replace him with someone who can (if that person even exists...). But don't go around pretending that Ime was great while Joe is an "idiot coach" just because his focus isn't one you like. The only real difference between these two teams is that one dominated with their defense while the other dominates with their offense.

Again - this is revisionist history that lacks context. We’re much more overall talented offensively this year when you consider Brogdon’s addition, White’s better integration and comfort ability with more time with us, and a year older Brown and Tatum with their continued developments.

So, yeah, we’ve essentially flipped the switch and our net rating is essentially the same relative to the rest of the league, but Joe’s doing it with a much more talented and complete roster than Ime, thus doing less with more. We lost last year due to simply not being offensively talented enough and not having sufficient ball handling and point guard play. If we lose it this year, it’s a major failure due to us having as much of if not more talent and depth than anyone in the league.

Also, the defense is critical. History shows that generally defense is the consistent component of title winners. You’re much more likely to go far with a strong defense and mediocre offense than vice versus, so it’s not just a preference thing.

Regarding the head coaching experience comment from above, that’s again lacking context. While both were first year head coaches , Ime had vastly more NBA assistant coaching experience under great coaches. He was also a player in the NBA, which also matters. They’re not even in the same stratosphere when it comes to preparation to be a head coach when hired.

Further, let’s *again* not forget that Joe was handed a silver plate of a team that was cohesive and significantly more talented than what Ime got. Coming off a Finals run with upgraded talent is hardly the same as coming off a first round gentleman’s sweep with lots of question marks.

[Vermont Green]

I thought it was interesting that when Doc Rivers played House over McDaniels, (15 minutes of total playing time) he was a hailed a genius, coaching circles around Joe.  Now Joe makes an adjustment that seems to have directly impacted the outcome of a critical game and everyone is like, about time, we won in spite of Joe, and so on.

RWill has not been playing well this playoff.  His impact numbers for ATL and this series are bad, at least until this last game.  Everyone is picking apart the defense and offense advanced stats.  To me, it is very clear.  Our defense is better when RWill plays (in place of White) but our offense is worse.  I don't see that as an indication of emphasis, it was more about what RWill could give the team or was giving the team.  It is no surprise that our offense is worse and defense better when RWill plays.

It definitely changed things for the PHI offense with RWill clogging the lane and defending drives.  He wasn't doing that all along though.  And when he gets drawn out, he has a tough time.  I am not really sure what his problem was in the ATL series.  RWill was -9, in a series where the team was +32 overall, he was not impacting the game.  In the PHI series, RWill is +39 (+18 last game) and Horford is -3.  It is one level of adjustment to deploy a different 8th guy for one game in a playoff series, it is a very different level of adjustment to change a starter.

[jpotter33]

I thought it was interesting that when Doc Rivers played House over McDaniels, (15 minutes of total playing time) he was a hailed a genius, coaching circles around Joe.  Now Joe makes an adjustment that seems to have directly impacted the outcome of a critical game and everyone is like, about time, we won in spite of Joe, and so on.

RWill has not been playing well this playoff.  His impact numbers for ATL and this series are bad, at least until this last game.  Everyone is picking apart the defense and offense advanced stats.  To me, it is very clear.  Our defense is better when RWill plays (in place of White) but our offense is worse.  I don't see that as an indication of emphasis, it was more about what RWill could give the team or was giving the team.  It is no surprise that our offense is worse and defense better when RWill plays.

It definitely changed things for the PHI offense with RWill clogging the lane and defending drives.  He wasn't doing that all along though.  And when he gets drawn out, he has a tough time.  I am not really sure what his problem was in the ATL series.  RWill was -9, in a series where the team was +32 overall, he was not impacting the game.  In the PHI series, RWill is +39 (+18 last game) and Horford is -3.  It is one level of adjustment to deploy a different 8th guy for one game in a playoff series, it is a very different level of adjustment to change a starter.

Chicken/egg dilemma.

Was Rob playing poorly because he was simply playing poorly, or because he was being misused? Probably a bit of both, but given that we have an entire year of data last year that highlights his success in the two big lineup, to me it seems clear that it’s more the latter, at least with this matchup.

When Rob is the lone big out there, he’s much more vulnerable to getting picked on in mismatches, as well as less effective due to having to stick to his primary guy more and being able to play less of the safety role. He’s certainly been God-awful in the PnR coverage, which, again, is a question of individual performance vs awful drop coverage scheme.

But that happens far less as the second big out there with Timelord given that he’s on Tucker, which allows for much more cheating off of him and helping with the PnR ball handler given Tucker isn’t a threat to score.

What I still don’t understand, though, is why he seems to be so much less of a lob threat when playing the single big role. I can’t figure out why he seems to provide more vertical spacing in the double big lineup over the single big lineup.

[Ed Monix]

If this is Stevens & Grousbeck‘s all time favourite movie, then it all makes sense.

[Roy H.]

I thought it was interesting that when Doc Rivers played House over McDaniels, (15 minutes of total playing time) he was a hailed a genius, coaching circles around Joe.  Now Joe makes an adjustment that seems to have directly impacted the outcome of a critical game and everyone is like, about time, we won in spite of Joe, and so on.

RWill has not been playing well this playoff.  His impact numbers for ATL and this series are bad, at least until this last game.  Everyone is picking apart the defense and offense advanced stats.  To me, it is very clear.  Our defense is better when RWill plays (in place of White) but our offense is worse.  I don't see that as an indication of emphasis, it was more about what RWill could give the team or was giving the team.  It is no surprise that our offense is worse and defense better when RWill plays.

It definitely changed things for the PHI offense with RWill clogging the lane and defending drives.  He wasn't doing that all along though.  And when he gets drawn out, he has a tough time.  I am not really sure what his problem was in the ATL series.  RWill was -9, in a series where the team was +32 overall, he was not impacting the game.  In the PHI series, RWill is +39 (+18 last game) and Horford is -3.  It is one level of adjustment to deploy a different 8th guy for one game in a playoff series, it is a very different level of adjustment to change a starter.

Chicken/egg dilemma.

Was Rob playing poorly because he was simply playing poorly, or because he was being misused? Probably a bit of both, but given that we have an entire year of data last year that highlights his success in the two big lineup, to me it seems clear that it’s more the latter, at least with this matchup.

When Rob is the lone big out there, he’s much more vulnerable to getting picked on in mismatches, as well as less effective due to having to stick to his primary guy more and being able to play less of the safety role. He’s certainly been God-awful in the PnR coverage, which, again, is a question of individual performance vs awful drop coverage scheme.

But that happens far less as the second big out there with Timelord given that he’s on Tucker, which allows for much more cheating off of him and helping with the PnR ball handler given Tucker isn’t a threat to score.

What I still don’t understand, though, is why he seems to be so much less of a lob threat when playing the single big role. I can’t figure out why he seems to provide more vertical spacing in the double big lineup over the single big lineup.

Yeah, Joe just didn't give the two big lineup a chance, despite it being extremely successful in the regular season.  From the above article:

Williams and Al Horford had played just one minute together with the starters in the entire series prior to Game 6

“It made a tremendous difference,” Jaylen Brown said. “It don’t take a professional to see the difference that Rob makes. You put him similar in that role he played last year where he can trust his instincts, make plays, even him tipping the ball out on rebounds and stuff like that. I feel like Rob felt a lot more comfortable out there in that double big.”

“I was happy that that happened,” Al Horford added. “We just know the impact that Rob has. When Rob’s not in there, I feel like a lot falls on my shoulders. When he’s out there, I know that he’s got my back and I can be a little more aggressive, I can do different things.”

Rob's best play is with Horford next to him.  That seems very clear to both observers and players.