Celtics Undervaluing Grant?

[Vermont Green]

If they let him become an RFA, aren’t they a little at the mercy of the offers he gets? If another team has a lot of cap next year they could frontload the offer and have it decline. Cs would have to match to keep him.

I think they can sign him to a new deal before that happens - instead of giving him a qualifying offer and letting him test the market, right?

No, that window closed once the season started.  They can’t come to a new deal with him until free agency now.

Yeah, I was asking if they have an option, next year after free agency begins, to sign him to a new deal rather than giving him the QO. Because I think if they give him the QO and he gets an offer, our only options are to match the offer or let him go.

Oh.  They can extend him the QO, but that doesn’t preclude them from afterwards signing him to a deal directly rather than just matching.  But they won’t be able to negotiate such a deal until free agency opens.

Yeah, at this point, they almost have no choice but to offer Grant a QO.  I can't see any reason not to.  Once they do that, they aren't going to negotiate against themselves.  They will wait to see what offers he gets and then either match or not (likely they will match).  I don't see him getting huge offers.  Rather, I expect he will get very matchable offers.  And we will match.

[nickagneta]

If they let him become an RFA, aren’t they a little at the mercy of the offers he gets? If another team has a lot of cap next year they could frontload the offer and have it decline. Cs would have to match to keep him.

I think they can sign him to a new deal before that happens - instead of giving him a qualifying offer and letting him test the market, right?

No, that window closed once the season started.  They can’t come to a new deal with him until free agency now.

Yeah, I was asking if they have an option, next year after free agency begins, to sign him to a new deal rather than giving him the QO. Because I think if they give him the QO and he gets an offer, our only options are to match the offer or let him go.

Oh.  They can extend him the QO, but that doesn’t preclude them from afterwards signing him to a deal directly rather than just matching.  But they won’t be able to negotiate such a deal until free agency opens.

Yeah, at this point, they almost have no choice but to offer Grant a QO.  I can't see any reason not to.  Once they do that, they aren't going to negotiate against themselves.  They will wait to see what offers he gets and then either match or not (likely they will match).  I don't see him getting huge offers.  Rather, I expect he will get very matchable offers.  And we will match.

I see no problem with negotiating with Grant and closing a deal before he gets other offers. Even giving him about 10-15% above what the market may have given him. It keeps both parties happy.

Last thing you want is a DeAndre Ayton situation with bad feelings between the sides because Grant feels he is being low balled and forced to play somewhere he now doesn't want to be.

Hopefully it works out like the Jaylen Brown situation where he went to RFA but the team took care of him to a contract JB was happy with, that the fans thought was an overpay and which ended up being a fairly good bargain contract for the Celtics.

[Goldstar88]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I think it’s more likely than any team paying Grant $17-20M/year. 

Yeah, that's what I was sort of getting at with my question above.

If you're a contender and you've got cap space, it probably makes more sense to pay Horford than it does Grant.

And, if you're a lousy team with cap space, it probably doesn't make sense to waste that space on Grant Williams.

100%. Al does so much for this team…Ultimate glue guy and many Celtics players look at him as the leader of the team. Would be pretty devastating to lose Horford.

[knuckleballer]

Can we go over the tax and pay both Grant and Al?  Wyc has always said he’d pay the tax for a contender.  This team looks like it will be a contender for at least a few years.  That also brings in a lot more revenue.  It’s time to splurge on salary.  Let’s get 18 and 19.

[Celtics2021]

Can we go over the tax and pay both Grant and Al?  Wyc has always said he’d pay the tax for a contender.  This team looks like it will be a contender for at least a few years.  That also brings in a lot more revenue.  It’s time to splurge on salary.  Let’s get 18 and 19.

For sure we can.  I think there's a question as to how high over the cap the Celtics will go, and if one or both of the two will get an offer that's sufficiently high enough to force the Celtics to make a choice between them.  Part of this will depend how the season goes and how everyone looks.  Does Horford show decline by the end of the postseason?  Does Grant keep growing, or does he stagnate?  Are we a Finals-quality team again, or do we flame out later in the season?  Win the title, and it's a lot easier to justify bringing everyone back at a budget you're a little uncomfortable with than bowing out in the second round.

But there's nothing in the rules preventing us from signing both Al and Grant to max deals if we wanted to go crazy.  That's not going to happen, of course, but it's allowed.

[Celtics2021]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I think it’s more likely than any team paying Grant $17-20M/year. 

Yeah, that's what I was sort of getting at with my question above.

If you're a contender and you've got cap space, it probably makes more sense to pay Horford than it does Grant.

And, if you're a lousy team with cap space, it probably doesn't make sense to waste that space on Grant Williams.

I just disagree on this.  Time will tell, of course, but I look at some teams that are youngish, potentially play-in quality teams that may or will have cap space that Grant would be a good fit on, especially when I look at who else is on the market.  Indiana has all kinds of cap space, and Grant would be a nice fit.  Sacramento has a decision to make between going forward with Harrison Barnes into his early-mid-30's or finding someone younger who fits their timeline.  Utah will have cap space, and Ainge obviously likes Grant.  Charlotte may have a lot of room, depending on what they ultimately do with Bridges, and Grant is from the area.  Grant's proven himself to be a starter/rotation player on a high-level team who can work well with young stars.  Those teams that have their young stars, or players whom they hope will become young stars, could see real value in a high-floor player who's easy to fit into a system.  You've also got teams like Detroit, who hasn't been shy about giving good-sized deals to role players, and Orlando.  I don't think Horford would be as appealing as Grant to any of those teams, just based on their respective timelines.

[#1P4P]

Al will rebuff leaving for money, will give a hometown discount, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

[Celtics2021]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

[MattyIce]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

[Big333223]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

I'm not going to make any predictions but it's possible he learned a lesson leaving Boston the last time. He might think back to how crappy those two years felt, think about how old he is, and look around at how much money he has and decide the size of the next contract isn't really going to matter.

As for Grant, I think it just didn't make sense for the Celtics to offer more than whatever they did this summer and it didn't make sense for Grant to take it if he has true confidence in himself to continue to improve. I imagine both sides will reevaluate in 2023 and find what each-other is looking for.

[slamtheking]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

he won't get a contract matching what he has now but he's going to look to get as much as he can in what will likely be his final one.  if he takes less than $18 mill a year, I'd be surprised unless his productivity just dies off this season in which case, C's likely won't want him back. 

[Roy H.]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

he won't get a contract matching what he has now but he's going to look to get as much as he can in what will likely be his final one.  if he takes less than $18 mill a year, I'd be surprised unless his productivity just dies off this season in which case, C's likely won't want him back.

Who do you think will offer more than $18 million per year?

[nickagneta]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

he won't get a contract matching what he has now but he's going to look to get as much as he can in what will likely be his final one.  if he takes less than $18 mill a year, I'd be surprised unless his productivity just dies off this season in which case, C's likely won't want him back.

Who do you think will offer more than $18 million per year?

No one. Outside of Boston Horford will be valued, at best, as a non-taxpayer MLE free agent. $10-13 million a year on a three year deal sounds about right for him to stay here.

[slamtheking]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

he won't get a contract matching what he has now but he's going to look to get as much as he can in what will likely be his final one.  if he takes less than $18 mill a year, I'd be surprised unless his productivity just dies off this season in which case, C's likely won't want him back.

Who do you think will offer more than $18 million per year?

No one. Outside of Boston Horford will be valued, at best, as a non-taxpayer MLE free agent. $10-13 million a year on a three year deal sounds about right for him to stay here.

I'm not sure who'll have cap room to get him but my viewpoint is based more on how much of a cut that would already be.  If he's productive this year I really wonder how much of a reduction he'd take to stay a C.  I'd gladly pay him half his current deal or less but I just don't see him taking that much of a cut

[nickagneta]

Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.

I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.

They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.

Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.

For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.

I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount.  We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value.  Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.

I would

he won't get a contract matching what he has now but he's going to look to get as much as he can in what will likely be his final one.  if he takes less than $18 mill a year, I'd be surprised unless his productivity just dies off this season in which case, C's likely won't want him back.

Who do you think will offer more than $18 million per year?

No one. Outside of Boston Horford will be valued, at best, as a non-taxpayer MLE free agent. $10-13 million a year on a three year deal sounds about right for him to stay here.

I'm not sure who'll have cap room to get him but my viewpoint is based more on how much of a cut that would already be.  If he's productive this year I really wonder how much of a reduction he'd take to stay a C.  I'd gladly pay him half his current deal or less but I just don't see him taking that much of a cut

It won't matter what he wants. What matters is what someone is willing to offer. No one outside the Celtics is going to give a 37 year old Horford anything more than a non-taxpayer MLE for 2-3 years. No one.

So if Boston offers say a 3 year $36 million contract with the last year a team option or partially guaranteed, Horford is going to take it because it's slightly above market value and because both he and his wife love Boston and love the team.