Roster Watch / Projected Line Ups

[Vermont Green]

I started a new thread on this as there was one related to the TPE (which expires in just hours) and one related to summer league players, so to keep it going, I started a fresh one.

My first point is to look back on the more frequently used line ups from last season.  I categorized players as Combo, Wing, or Big.  I know there are more guard'ish wings and more forward'ish wings, as well as more PF'ish bigs and more C'ish big, but bear with me.

The most used line up combination from last season, by far was:

Combo/Wing/Wing/Big/Big (for example Smart/Brown/Tatum/Horford/RWill)

Of the 14 top used line ups, this combination ranked 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13.  This was clearly the most used combination.

The next most used was:

Combo/Combo/Wing/Big/Big (for example White, Smart, Tatum, Horford, Williams).

This combination held the 3, 4, 11, 12 used line ups.  Quite a bit less than the top combination but still used pretty regularly.

There were two different 1 big line ups that appeared in the top 14:

Combo/Combo/Wing/Wing/Big (6th most used)
Combo/Wing/Wing/Wing/Big  (14th most used)

As to the roster, I break it up as Starters, Core Rotation, Insurance, Prospects

Starters:    Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, RWill
Core:         Brogdon, Gallinari, White, Grant
Insurance:  Pritchard
Prospects:  Hauser, Kornet

In my mind, the Roster spots that could be filled are one more core player (a wing), 2 insurance players (Wing and Big) and then any others are prospects.  In reality, it is unlikely that they add both a core wing and an insurance wing.  A core wing of course likely costs more in contract and in assets if we acquire a core wing in a trade.  Insurance slots I am assuming can be had for min or near min contracts.

Based on last season's wing usage, they like to keep 2 wings on the court a lot, even 3 wings sometimes.  Brogdon may well end up being one 3rd wing or the core rotation bench wing.  But if you want to match last season's line up use, we should have 2 wings available off the core bench rotation, Brogdon can clearly be the "guard'ish" wing but the gap is for that "forward'ish" wing (and no, Grant Williams is not that).

[CFAN38]

As to the roster, I break it up as Starters, Core Rotation, Insurance, Prospects

Starters:    Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, RWill
Core:         Brogdon, Gallinari, White, Grant
Insurance:  Pritchard
Prospects:  Hauser, Kornet

In my mind, the Roster spots that could be filled are one more core player (a wing), 2 insurance players (Wing and Big) and then any others are prospects.  In reality, it is unlikely that they add both a core wing and an insurance wing.  A core wing of course likely costs more in contract and in assets if we acquire a core wing in a trade.  Insurance slots I am assuming can be had for min or near min contracts.

Using your breakdown I expect the Cs to add an insurance wing and big to the roster. I expect the 15th spot to be left empty for flexibility at the deadline unless JD's agent is able to push Stevens to sign him to a full contract.

Ideally the insurance wing is an athletic defensive minded player but I suspect Matt Ryan earns the spot during training camp. I would also consider trying to get Semi in for training camp / preseason to see if he can earn the spot. (like the idea of having him as an emergency Giannis/KD defender in playoffs)

The bench big has been discussed a lot on here. Its a tough spot to fill because ideally the player has a skill set that can backup Rob. While they play the role very differently Grant and Gallo can both fill in for AL and be effective. No one on this roster other then Kabengele (on 2-way) provide a vertical threat or rim protect. Nerlens Noel , Dwight Powell, or Mason Plumlee would be great fits but I cant see the team paying the tax or asset cost to trade for either player.

[knuckleballer]

I think our biggest need right now is a backup center.  Are there any buy out candidates such as Noel?  If not I would expect us to sign one of Howard, Whiteside, or Aldridge to a veterans minimum.  Then hope Kabengele can earn playing time.  I’d be surprised if we traded for anyone making much more than the minimum considering the luxury tax.

I like the idea of having Semi and Ryan battling it out for the last wing spot.

[Csfan1984]

Don't mind if they sign Jackson and Ryan. And try a little more development of a wing, I don't buy Hauser. Hopefully Begarin agrees to one more year in Europe and goes to a higher league so you won't worry about his inhouse growth.

For lineup I go
Start= Brogdon, Smart, Brown, Tatum, TL
Main bench= PP, White, Grant, Galo, Al.
Deep bench= Ryan, Jackson, Hauser, Kornet
2-way=JD and Kabe
Leave one spot open.

Once you start Brogdon and Al is on the bench it eliminates the need for another center that most seem to be asking for. Just looking at the roster it has five guys who can play center minutes without including Kabe. Why add another? We have seen big slow guys come here and just rot on the bench so what is the point? And before you say, dont breakup a starting five that got to the finals, as good as this team did half the year they were bad. In the finals turnovers and mental breakdowns were a problem. Therefore I see a very good reason to shake things up including keeping 36 year old Al fresh.

I like the development search for that third big wing to come in and limit the drop off of the "slow starts" of Tatum or "mid game disappearing" of Brown that crushes this team for quarters at a time. Not sure it will be successful but the team has to try and find that guy.

[Goldstar88]

Don't mind if they sign Jackson and Ryan. And try a little more development of a wing, I don't buy Hauser. Hopefully Begarin agrees to one more year in Europe and goes to a higher league so you won't worry about his inhouse growth.

For lineup I go
Start= Brogdon, Smart, Brown, Tatum, TL
Main bench= PP, White, Grant, Galo, Al.
Deep bench= Ryan, Jackson, Hauser, Kornet
2-way=JD and Kabe
Leave one spot open.

Once you start Brogdon and Al is on the bench it eliminates the need for another center that most seem to be asking for. Just looking at the roster it has five guys who can play center minutes without including Kabe. Why add another? We have seen big slow guys come here and just rot on the bench so what is the point? And before you say, dont breakup a starting five that got to the finals, as good as this team did half the year they were bad. In the finals turnovers and mental breakdowns were a problem. Therefore I see a very good reason to shake things up including keeping 36 year old Al fresh.

I like the development search for that third big wing to come in and limit the drop off of the "slow starts" of Tatum or "mid game disappearing" of Brown that crushes this team for quarters at a time. Not sure it will be successful but the team has to try and find that guy.

I think that would probably be the best starting 5, However… Ime loves his two big man lineup with Al and Rob. Also, having Grant as the backup SF is not ideal. He’s really only useful at the 4. Brogdon would be better at the 3.

[PAOBoston]

Don’t think they tinker with the starting 5 (assuming no injuries). It should be Smart/JB/JT/Horford/Williams. Brogdon/White/Gallinari/Williams will be core bench guys. The Brogdon/Gallinari moves are such huge moves. Would have been great to have had those guys in the playoffs last year.

[Vermont Green]

I don't think that the Celtics are going to tinker with the starting line up either or tinker with the principle of playing primarily as a 2-big line up.  You can go back as far as you want with the Celtics and there is only one season that the most used line up was a 1-big line up, that was 2019/20 with Hayward.  There were some seasons where more of a swing was used, Morris/Horford in 2018/19 for example, but it is simply not accurate to say that this is what the Celtics want to do or that this is the trend.

And as to the rest of the league, last season most teams and nearly all the top teams played with two bigs.  Exceptions were teams like BKN (Durant is hard to categorize), CHA, CHI, HOU, NOP.

If the team is going to try to play principally with only one big, that means we would need to have 2 true wings on the floor nearly all the time.  For example, you can get away with playing Smart-Brogdon if you have both Brown and Tatum on the floor but can we really play with say Smart-White-Brogdon-Brown-RWill?  To me that is way too small of a line up.

My point is that if the plan or desire of the team was to play principally 1-big, they wouldn't have added Gallinari.  They would have used that slot to add another big'ish wing (like Tatum) because that is what they would need to do.  They did add Brogdon but he historically has played as a combo guard.  I don't see him as a natural wing and certainly not a "big'ish" wing like Tatum.

I think those hoping to see a lot of 1-big, multi-guard, multi-wing line ups are going to be disappointed.  They will play some this way but it will be the exception, not the norm.  I say that of course with the caveat "barring major injuries".  And yes, plural.  In some worst case injury scenario, they may be forced to play that way but I don't see any indication that this is the way they want to play or prefer to play.

[byennie]

I don't think that the Celtics are going to tinker with the starting line up either or tinker with the principle of playing primarily as a 2-big line up.  You can go back as far as you want with the Celtics and there is only one season that the most used line up was a 1-big line up, that was 2019/20 with Hayward.  There were some seasons where more of a swing was used, Morris/Horford in 2018/19 for example, but it is simply not accurate to say that this is what the Celtics want to do or that this is the trend.

And as to the rest of the league, last season most teams and nearly all the top teams played with two bigs.  Exceptions were teams like BKN (Durant is hard to categorize), CHA, CHI, HOU, NOP.

If the team is going to try to play principally with only one big, that means we would need to have 2 true wings on the floor nearly all the time.  For example, you can get away with playing Smart-Brogdon if you have both Brown and Tatum on the floor but can we really play with say Smart-White-Brogdon-Brown-RWill?  To me that is way too small of a line up.

My point is that if the plan or desire of the team was to play principally 1-big, they wouldn't have added Gallinari.  They would have used that slot to add another big'ish wing (like Tatum) because that is what they would need to do.  They did add Brogdon but he historically has played as a combo guard.  I don't see him as a natural wing and certainly not a "big'ish" wing like Tatum.

I think those hoping to see a lot of 1-big, multi-guard, multi-wing line ups are going to be disappointed.  They will play some this way but it will be the exception, not the norm.  I say that of course with the caveat "barring major injuries".  And yes, plural.  In some worst case injury scenario, they may be forced to play that way but I don't see any indication that this is the way they want to play or prefer to play.

Agree. Celtics feel they were the best team in basketball when they started a healthy Smart/Brown/Tatum/Horford/Williams.

Now they have Brogdon + Gallinari added to the bench to reduce the dropoff. They'll go with that until/unless something changes.

Starters: Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, RWilliams
Ball handlers: Smart, Brogdon, White, Pritchard
Wings: Brown, Tatum
Bigs: Horford, RWilliams, Gallinari, GWilliams
Deep Bench: Hauser, Kornet, Davison...

They'll try to keep a ball handler on the court at all times, and guys like Smart / White / GWilliams can function as wings for stretches of time.

[Csfan1984]

I like the miss matches Tatum would have at the 4 vs Al/TL. Team also needs to learn to live without Al. Makes no sense to not see Tatum as a capable PF, he is pushing 6’9 220lbs. That's avg PF in the league. With Tatum's skill set he could dominate on offense and conserve energy on defense. Having smaller guys play against him only encourages more step backs, more contested threes and less drives. I understand when the team is matched up against a bigger team we go double big but I would make the default starting lineup with Brogdon and Al coming off the bench. With that,

Planned depth rotation with (minutes)
PG-Brogdon (30), PP (10), Smart ( 8 )
SG-Smart (22), White (16), Brown (10)
SF-Brown (22), Tatum (16), Grant (10)
PF-Tatum (16), Gallo (20), Grant (12)
C-TL (24), Al (24)

I would have guys play down a spot after returning from a rest/breather to see if they could take advantage of the energy. So that is why I have so many guys getting minutes at outside the start spots. It help keep teams off balance and dictate their rotations. Any one outside the guys listed would only get minutes in special situations.

[Yuckabuck33]

I like the miss matches Tatum would have at the 4 vs Al/TL. Team also needs to learn to live without Al. Makes no sense to not see Tatum as a capable PF, he is pushing 6’9 220lbs. That's avg PF in the league. With Tatum's skill set he could dominate on offense and conserve energy on defense. Having smaller guys play against him only encourages more step backs, more contested threes and less drives. I understand when the team is matched up against a bigger team we go double big but I would make the default starting lineup with Brogdon and Al coming off the bench. With that,

Planned depth rotation with (minutes)
PG-Brogdon (30), PP (10), Smart ( 8 )
SG-Smart (22), White (16), Brown (10)
SF-Brown (22), Tatum (16), Grant (10)
PF-Tatum (16), Gallo (20), Grant (12)
C-TL (24), Al (24)

I would have guys play down a spot after returning from a rest/breather to see if they could take advantage of the energy. So that is why I have so many guys getting minutes at outside the start spots. It help keep teams off balance and dictate their rotations. Any one outside the guys listed would only get minutes in special situations.

That's interesting. I can guarantee that that will NOT be how Brad and Ime see it. Smart will run the point and they have already publicly committed to the two big lineup for the coming year.

[Csfan1984]

I like the miss matches Tatum would have at the 4 vs Al/TL. Team also needs to learn to live without Al. Makes no sense to not see Tatum as a capable PF, he is pushing 6’9 220lbs. That's avg PF in the league. With Tatum's skill set he could dominate on offense and conserve energy on defense. Having smaller guys play against him only encourages more step backs, more contested threes and less drives. I understand when the team is matched up against a bigger team we go double big but I would make the default starting lineup with Brogdon and Al coming off the bench. With that,

Planned depth rotation with (minutes)
PG-Brogdon (30), PP (10), Smart ( 8 )
SG-Smart (22), White (16), Brown (10)
SF-Brown (22), Tatum (16), Grant (10)
PF-Tatum (16), Gallo (20), Grant (12)
C-TL (24), Al (24)

I would have guys play down a spot after returning from a rest/breather to see if they could take advantage of the energy. So that is why I have so many guys getting minutes at outside the start spots. It help keep teams off balance and dictate their rotations. Any one outside the guys listed would only get minutes in special situations.

That's interesting. I can guarantee that that will NOT be how Brad and Ime see it. Smart will run the point and they have already publicly committed to the two big lineup for the coming year.

My hope is they see it sooner than wasting half the year. As last year they were forcing Al at 4 and TL at the 5 which was a disaster for over a month. Once they gave up and swapped them the defense took off. Sometimes it is not what you plan but how you adapt.

Have a feeling once we see Brogdon running the PG spot things are going to snowball for Smart similar to Irving and Harden situation. Harden was a clear better passing choice at PG. Brogdon vs Smart is the same deal with Brogdon having more PG skills and experience. Start them together to avoid the drama that 100% will come.

[hpantazo]

I like the miss matches Tatum would have at the 4 vs Al/TL. Team also needs to learn to live without Al. Makes no sense to not see Tatum as a capable PF, he is pushing 6’9 220lbs. That's avg PF in the league. With Tatum's skill set he could dominate on offense and conserve energy on defense. Having smaller guys play against him only encourages more step backs, more contested threes and less drives. I understand when the team is matched up against a bigger team we go double big but I would make the default starting lineup with Brogdon and Al coming off the bench. With that,

Planned depth rotation with (minutes)
PG-Brogdon (30), PP (10), Smart ( 8 )
SG-Smart (22), White (16), Brown (10)
SF-Brown (22), Tatum (16), Grant (10)
PF-Tatum (16), Gallo (20), Grant (12)
C-TL (24), Al (24)

I would have guys play down a spot after returning from a rest/breather to see if they could take advantage of the energy. So that is why I have so many guys getting minutes at outside the start spots. It help keep teams off balance and dictate their rotations. Any one outside the guys listed would only get minutes in special situations.

That's interesting. I can guarantee that that will NOT be how Brad and Ime see it. Smart will run the point and they have already publicly committed to the two big lineup for the coming year.

My hope is they see it sooner than wasting half the year. As last year they were forcing Al at 4 and TL at the 5 which was a disaster for over a month. Once they gave up and swapped them the defense took off. Sometimes it is not what you plan but how you adapt.

Have a feeling once we see Brogdon running the PG spot things are going to snowball for Smart similar to Irving and Harden situation. Harden was a clear better passing choice at PG. Brogdon vs Smart is the same deal with Brogdon having more PG skills and experience. Start them together to avoid the drama that 100% will come.

Neither of these guys are at all comparable to Kyrie or Harden. Smart and Brogdon are both defensive minded role players who want to win. Basically the opposite of Kyrie and Harden.

[Csfan1984]

I like the miss matches Tatum would have at the 4 vs Al/TL. Team also needs to learn to live without Al. Makes no sense to not see Tatum as a capable PF, he is pushing 6’9 220lbs. That's avg PF in the league. With Tatum's skill set he could dominate on offense and conserve energy on defense. Having smaller guys play against him only encourages more step backs, more contested threes and less drives. I understand when the team is matched up against a bigger team we go double big but I would make the default starting lineup with Brogdon and Al coming off the bench. With that,

Planned depth rotation with (minutes)
PG-Brogdon (30), PP (10), Smart ( 8 )
SG-Smart (22), White (16), Brown (10)
SF-Brown (22), Tatum (16), Grant (10)
PF-Tatum (16), Gallo (20), Grant (12)
C-TL (24), Al (24)

I would have guys play down a spot after returning from a rest/breather to see if they could take advantage of the energy. So that is why I have so many guys getting minutes at outside the start spots. It help keep teams off balance and dictate their rotations. Any one outside the guys listed would only get minutes in special situations.

That's interesting. I can guarantee that that will NOT be how Brad and Ime see it. Smart will run the point and they have already publicly committed to the two big lineup for the coming year.

My hope is they see it sooner than wasting half the year. As last year they were forcing Al at 4 and TL at the 5 which was a disaster for over a month. Once they gave up and swapped them the defense took off. Sometimes it is not what you plan but how you adapt.

Have a feeling once we see Brogdon running the PG spot things are going to snowball for Smart similar to Irving and Harden situation. Harden was a clear better passing choice at PG. Brogdon vs Smart is the same deal with Brogdon having more PG skills and experience. Start them together to avoid the drama that 100% will come.

Neither of these guys are at all comparable to Kyrie or Harden. Smart and Brogdon are both defensive minded role players who want to win. Basically the opposite of Kyrie and Harden.

It's not a character slight. It's basketball tactics based on skills vs massaging egos. Harden was the better PG fit so Nets changed after a few weeks. Irving gave his OK. Can the C's act that way earlier  or even avoid it all together if Brogdon is the better PG choice?

Before this year it wasn't even a debate Brogdon was clearly a better PG than Smart. Brogdon is injured, C's do well with Smart slightly more under control so now people want to make it out as Smart a clear choice over Brogdon.

[colincb]

nm

[Vermont Green]

Yeah, a common refrain, it's not who starts the game but who finishes.  The most used line up overall was by far Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, RWill.   Over 4X any other line up.  That is starting, finishing, everything.

When you sort for 4th quarter in the regular season, it is very strange but there is no clear line up.  The most used line up has only 28 minutes the entire season.  That line up was Smart, Brown, Richardson, Tatum, RWill (+5).  The best line up for the regular season was Smart, Brown, Tatum, Grant, RWill (+26 in only 18 minutes).

It gets a little more definitive in the playoffs.  There is a clear most used 4th quarter line up in the playoffs:  Smart, Brown, Tatum, Grant, Horford (-11 in 51 minutes).  My guess is that RWill would have been in on that had it not been for injuries.  The best closing unit was Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, Horford (+21 in 39 minutes).

So I cannot conclude anything from this.  There does not appear to have been a clear "closing" line up used in the regular season, that in of itself may be an issue.  I also sorted by the second half of the regular season and there was nothing definitive in that sort either.  In the playoffs, there was more of a closing unit deployed but it was not all that successful but was down one starter.

I still say that the Celtics are going to start and play the most minutes with the same starters as last season and in general will keep 2 bigs on the floor most of the time.  No doubt there will be exceptions to this, including in the 4th quarter.  But if the starters do as well next season as they did last, I am not sure I understand why they wouldn't close with that unit also.