What do we do with Horford next season?

[celticsclay]

Option 1 -- Trade Horford

Package Horford and a bunch of picks for a 3rd star.

We have the rest of the team in place. Rob Williams, Derrick White and Marcus Smart would give us one of the strongest teams in the league 4-6. A legit Big Three plus high level glue guys. Then round out the bench. Theis, Grant Williams are steps in that direction.

Well positioned to become an elite team. The final move is needed and trading Horford is that move.

I'm not so sure we can get a "star" for that package, but definitely a good third best player next to Brown and Tatum

Some names to think about -- John Collins, Jerami Grant, Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Andrew Wiggins, Pascal Siakam, Kyle Kuzma.

Personally, I have a hard time getting excited about any of those names, but it's a route I can see the team taking.

I don’t think warriors want to move him, but why not wiggins? Hasn’t he proven to be a perfect third star this year? Also would like siakam and Collins could be good fits. By the way nobody really thinks 2 is an option right?

[Roy H.]

If Horford gets waived, what's the market look like for him?

Will someone sign him to the full standard mid-level (or more), getting him $10m and he's practically breaking even? 

Or does he immediately drop to the vet minimum getting him ~$2.6m (like Howard, Drummond, Freedom, Aldrdige, Milsap, Whiteside).

Could he agree to an extension, like the C's keep him for $26.5m and he then agrees to a 2yr, $10m extension?

Because if the C's are going to waive Horford, and somehow replace him with a $10m player, they're not really saving any money.  And not a lot of starting quality, non-rookie scale players out there making <$10m.

I think he’s easily Taxpayer MLE, at least.  So, 6+ million per year.  In an ideal world he’d take that sort of offer from us.

[Who]

Can you re-sign a guy you've stretched?

I am surprised teams are allowed do that.

Has it happened before?

[Roy H.]

Can you re-sign a guy you've stretched?

I am surprised teams are allowed do that.

Has it happened before?

I don’t think you can, but I’m not 100% sure.

Edit:  You can’t.

If a team chooses to stretch the cap hit of a waived player's salary (see question number 65), it cannot re-sign or re-acquire the player until the end of the original term of the contract.

[stes]

Option 1 -- Trade Horford

Package Horford and a bunch of picks for a 3rd star.

We have the rest of the team in place. Rob Williams, Derrick White and Marcus Smart would give us one of the strongest teams in the league 4-6. A legit Big Three plus high level glue guys. Then round out the bench. Theis, Grant Williams are steps in that direction.

Well positioned to become an elite team. The final move is needed and trading Horford is that move.

I'm not so sure we can get a "star" for that package, but definitely a good third best player next to Brown and Tatum

Some names to think about -- John Collins, Jerami Grant, Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Andrew Wiggins, Pascal Siakam, Kyle Kuzma.

Personally, I have a hard time getting excited about any of those names, but it's a route I can see the team taking.

Kuzma makes about $13M, so he can (and I’d argue that he should) be a trade target with the Fournier TPE

[GreenlyGreeny]

Keep him at $26.5 million. If a deal for a superstar comes up, deal him. Otherwise, pay him and he’s bound to come back at a discount to end his career. It’s like having a player-coach who can still play. And it makes up for the bad feelings among the NBAPA that Danny built with IT then Al then Gordon.

And here’s the biggest thing you’re all overlooking: Horford is good friends with Kevin Durant. I don’t know if you’ve noticed how much of a disaster the Nets are, but is it inconceivable that we keep Horford, Durant pulls a Harden and demands a trade to Boston, and we’re able to send JB and Smart for Durant? He’s still only 33 years old averaging just shy of 30 PPG, 7.5 REB and 6 AST. Pairing him with Tatum and Horford would make us unstoppable.

[keevsnick]

One amendment, only the guaranteed part of the salary counts in a trade but you can in theory just guarantee the rest of the deal then the full amount counts, and that might be useful to salary match in the event of a trade.

Before the Theis trade I would have said it makes little sense to cut him, since you're only saving twelve million. But brining back theis makes me think they will cut him because i can't imagine paying 9 million for a third string center.

So I think they try to trade him first, cut him if they can't.

[RodyTur10]

There is no way we keep Al Horford next season at $26.5 mm.  I misunderstood how the guaranteed portion worked. It thought that as long as we didn't make the finals, we could keep him at pay him at the guaranteed $14.5 mm portion, which would be palatable if he continued to start. But if our only choices are as outlined by Roy, there is no way we would be able to keep him.  We would either trade him or work on a buyout or stretch him.

Now the Theis trade makes more  sense; he would basically replace Al next year in a similar role.

I'm really not looking forward to a buyout or stretching him. So if we don't keep him we'd have to trade him. A team that is coming of a fairly successful season is not going to look at Horford as a viable trading option. So we need a trading partner that's already in rebuild mode or has been so disappointing that they want to break it up.

With a contract as Horford you have to be little imaginative. And things are unpredictable (who would guessed that Porzingis would go to Washington or Sabonis to Sacramento?). The options I'll be naming sometimes seem farfetched on the other hand the Celtics wouldn't be very interested if they can't get back a player at the same level or with a lot of upside.

In the proposed targets I won't be offering picks or assets or whatever, they're a given dependent on the target level. In the same way some salary filler from either side may be needed, but that's also a minor detail in the grand scheme of things. The teams I'm disregarding are Heat, Cavs, Bulls, 76ers, Raptors, Suns, Warriors, Grizzlies, Jazz, Nuggets and Clippers (because of Leonard returning). Potential targets:

Nets: Durant (or Harris)
Hornets: Hayward (or Rozier)
Hawks: Collins (or Huerter + Hunter/Okongwu)
Wizards: Avdija (S+T Beal seems impossible)
Knicks: Randle
Pacers: Brogdon
Magic: Isaac
Pistons: Grant

Mavericks: Hardaway Jr
Timberwolves: Towns (or Russell)
Lakers: Davis
Pelicans: Williamson (or Ingram or Valanciunas)
Trailblazers: Lillard
Spurs: Poeltl
Kings: Barnes (or Fox)
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander
Rockets: Wood

A couple of these options look really crazy like Durant, Hayward, Towns, Davis and Williamson. The most interesting and realistic options to explore are Collins (Hawks), Brogdon (Pacers), Grant (Pistons), Lillard (Trailblazers), Barnes (Kings) and Wood (Rockets) I'd think. The teams in question have various reasons to actually trade these players and in certain negotiations (for instance the Hawks) a 3rd team could be included.

Grant (offensive rank issue), Lillard (salary issue) and Wood (attitude issue) would be on my back-up list. I'd phone the Hawks and Pacers first with the Kings as my 3rd option. Collins would be kind of an ideal fit and Brogdon should be attainable as long as the Pacers don't have any resentment from the failed Hayward negotiations.

[todd_days_41]

Option 1 -- Trade Horford

Package Horford and a bunch of picks for a 3rd star.

We do not have the picks or prospects to trade for a 3rd star. We’re beholden to role players, unless we’re willing to give up RWIII (which we won’t and shouldn’t).

[RodyTur10]

Option 1 -- Trade Horford

Package Horford and a bunch of picks for a 3rd star.

We do not have the picks or prospects to trade for a 3rd star. We’re beholden to role players, unless we’re willing to give up RWIII (which we won’t and shouldn’t).

Giving up three unprotected picks ('23/'25/'27) will get a lot of teams' attention. Are we willing to do that?
And which team is actually willing to trade their star?

[footey]

If Horford gets waived, what's the market look like for him?

Will someone sign him to the full standard mid-level (or more), getting him $10m and he's practically breaking even? 

Or does he immediately drop to the vet minimum getting him ~$2.6m (like Howard, Drummond, Freedom, Aldrdige, Milsap, Whiteside).

Could he agree to an extension, like the C's keep him for $26.5m and he then agrees to a 2yr, $10m extension?

Because if the C's are going to waive Horford, and somehow replace him with a $10m player, they're not really saving any money.  And not a lot of starting quality, non-rookie scale players out there making <$10m.

I think he’s easily Taxpayer MLE, at least.  So, 6+ million per year.  In an ideal world he’d take that sort of offer from us.

I dunno, Al seems to be all about the money, isn't that the lesson we learned last go round??

[footey]

Does this really mean that if we traded Al, we could only bring back $14.5 mm in salary (unless we package him with another player) but the team receiving him is on the hook for the full $26.5 mm, and the full $26.5 mm would count against their cap?  Seems this would make his contract very difficult to trade in the off season. 

Couldn't we guarantee the full amount in the off season, and thereby use it to buy a bigger contract, making it more palatable for our trading partner?

If not, once next season started, we could use his full $26.5 mm as an expiring contract to make a trade, right?  (this is a weak option, obviously)

[gouki88]

Option 1 -- Trade Horford

Package Horford and a bunch of picks for a 3rd star.

We have the rest of the team in place. Rob Williams, Derrick White and Marcus Smart would give us one of the strongest teams in the league 4-6. A legit Big Three plus high level glue guys. Then round out the bench. Theis, Grant Williams are steps in that direction.

Well positioned to become an elite team. The final move is needed and trading Horford is that move.

Horford and a bunch of picks doesn’t get us a star unless we include others.

[liam]

If Horford gets waived, what's the market look like for him?

Will someone sign him to the full standard mid-level (or more), getting him $10m and he's practically breaking even? 

Or does he immediately drop to the vet minimum getting him ~$2.6m (like Howard, Drummond, Freedom, Aldrdige, Milsap, Whiteside).

Could he agree to an extension, like the C's keep him for $26.5m and he then agrees to a 2yr, $10m extension?

Because if the C's are going to waive Horford, and somehow replace him with a $10m player, they're not really saving any money.  And not a lot of starting quality, non-rookie scale players out there making <$10m.

I think he’s easily Taxpayer MLE, at least.  So, 6+ million per year.  In an ideal world he’d take that sort of offer from us.

I dunno, Al seems to be all about the money, isn't that the lesson we learned last go round??

Maybe Al learn a lesson last time.

[DBCooper]

Unless it’s a S&T for a pending FA who wants to sign