Author Topic: NBA Season 2021-22  (Read 751962 times)

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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2325 on: March 11, 2022, 08:27:30 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Can’t believe lot of so called experts thought Philly was going be tough to beat..I said when trade happen that it was a bad trade for Philly

I think in the short term (this season) it makes them better than if they'd done nothing.  Harden + Millsap + DJ is better than Curry + Drummond.

But, there options weren't "do the BRK trade or do nothing".  They could have kept Curry and Drummond and added helpful pieces for Simmons.  They probably could have gotten Haliburton and Barnes for Simmons + #1.  That would have made them better both long and short term.

I'm glad that Morey was hyper-focused on Harden.

Embiid / Drummond
Harris / Niang
Barnes / Green
Curry / Thybulle / Milton
Haliburton / Maxey / Korkmaz

That's a much scarier team than what they have now.


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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2326 on: March 11, 2022, 09:07:18 AM »

Online Moranis

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Can’t believe lot of so called experts thought Philly was going be tough to beat..I said when trade happen that it was a bad trade for Philly

I think in the short term (this season) it makes them better than if they'd done nothing.  Harden + Millsap + DJ is better than Curry + Drummond.

But, there options weren't "do the BRK trade or do nothing".  They could have kept Curry and Drummond and added helpful pieces for Simmons.  They probably could have gotten Haliburton and Barnes for Simmons + #1.  That would have made them better both long and short term.

I'm glad that Morey was hyper-focused on Harden.

Embiid / Drummond
Harris / Niang
Barnes / Green
Curry / Thybulle / Milton
Haliburton / Maxey / Korkmaz

That's a much scarier team than what they have now.
Long term, sure, but not over the next 2-3 seasons.  Especially next year when they have the off season to add to their role players and bench. 
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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2327 on: March 11, 2022, 09:25:43 AM »

Offline Celtics2021

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Can’t believe lot of so called experts thought Philly was going be tough to beat..I said when trade happen that it was a bad trade for Philly

I think in the short term (this season) it makes them better than if they'd done nothing.  Harden + Millsap + DJ is better than Curry + Drummond.

But, there options weren't "do the BRK trade or do nothing".  They could have kept Curry and Drummond and added helpful pieces for Simmons.  They probably could have gotten Haliburton and Barnes for Simmons + #1.  That would have made them better both long and short term.

I'm glad that Morey was hyper-focused on Harden.

Embiid / Drummond
Harris / Niang
Barnes / Green
Curry / Thybulle / Milton
Haliburton / Maxey / Korkmaz

That's a much scarier team than what they have now.
Long term, sure, but not over the next 2-3 seasons.  Especially next year when they have the off season to add to their role players and bench.

They’re over the apron as is, so they get to add a taxpayer MLE and vet free agents in a weak class, or try to make trades, noting that’s they are short a couple of seconds and (potentially) unable to trade any firsts through 2029.  (Brooklyn has the option of this year’s first or next year’s first.  If Brooklyn picks this year’s then they can trade 2023, but they’re otherwise prohibited from trading 2024-2029 due to other picks already owed).

They put a lot of eggs in the Harden basket.  It might work, and they’re a better team now than prior to the trade, but I agree with Roy that I’m not sure they came out better for being so focused on Harden.

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2328 on: March 11, 2022, 09:33:14 AM »

Offline RJ87

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Can’t believe lot of so called experts thought Philly was going be tough to beat..I said when trade happen that it was a bad trade for Philly

I think in the short term (this season) it makes them better than if they'd done nothing.  Harden + Millsap + DJ is better than Curry + Drummond.

But, there options weren't "do the BRK trade or do nothing".  They could have kept Curry and Drummond and added helpful pieces for Simmons.  They probably could have gotten Haliburton and Barnes for Simmons + #1.  That would have made them better both long and short term.

I'm glad that Morey was hyper-focused on Harden.

Embiid / Drummond
Harris / Niang
Barnes / Green
Curry / Thybulle / Milton
Haliburton / Maxey / Korkmaz

That's a much scarier team than what they have now.

I actually think they could've added Green's salary + another draft pick and gotten Hield as well. They could've really strengthen their starting lineup and their bench, but Morey is enamored with Harden.

Granted, they'll probably steal a couple of vets in free agency this offseason. There's always a couple of guys willing to leave money on the table to ring chase (like Otto Porter).

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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2329 on: March 11, 2022, 09:43:22 AM »

Online Moranis

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Can’t believe lot of so called experts thought Philly was going be tough to beat..I said when trade happen that it was a bad trade for Philly

I think in the short term (this season) it makes them better than if they'd done nothing.  Harden + Millsap + DJ is better than Curry + Drummond.

But, there options weren't "do the BRK trade or do nothing".  They could have kept Curry and Drummond and added helpful pieces for Simmons.  They probably could have gotten Haliburton and Barnes for Simmons + #1.  That would have made them better both long and short term.

I'm glad that Morey was hyper-focused on Harden.

Embiid / Drummond
Harris / Niang
Barnes / Green
Curry / Thybulle / Milton
Haliburton / Maxey / Korkmaz

That's a much scarier team than what they have now.
Long term, sure, but not over the next 2-3 seasons.  Especially next year when they have the off season to add to their role players and bench.

They’re over the apron as is, so they get to add a taxpayer MLE and vet free agents in a weak class, or try to make trades, noting that’s they are short a couple of seconds and (potentially) unable to trade any firsts through 2029.  (Brooklyn has the option of this year’s first or next year’s first.  If Brooklyn picks this year’s then they can trade 2023, but they’re otherwise prohibited from trading 2024-2029 due to other picks already owed).

They put a lot of eggs in the Harden basket.  It might work, and they’re a better team now than prior to the trade, but I agree with Roy that I’m not sure they came out better for being so focused on Harden.
I think they will look vastly different next year.  Perhaps it is a trade of Harris or they add Maxey to a trade to really get better (I think that would be a mistake, but teams going all in sometimes make those type of moves).  This year because of when they made the trade, they didn't have a lot of options, but I do believe they will look a lot different next year with the only guarantee of being on the roster being Embiid and Harden (on a big new contract). 

Haliburton definitely has the long term potential to be great, but this year both the Kings and Pacers have been better with Haliburton on the bench.  He doesn't yet play winning basketball.  He is a poor defender, he is very ball dominant (and not in the elite scoring way that Harden is), and he is a very poor defender.  Long term, obviously Haliburton will be better than Harden, but not over the next few seasons and guys like Barnes and Curry are role players.  They just don't drive the needle much and most of their value can be replaced by Philly in the free agent market.  When you have a player like Embiid, who is in his prime and has injury concerns, you maximize your title chances and Harden was the best option for the Sixers to do that.  None of the other potential Simmons trades were as good an option as Harden over the next couple of seasons, which is why they made the trade and made it when they did. 
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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2330 on: March 11, 2022, 10:06:35 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I was stunned at how bad Philly looked last night (or maybe it was how good BKN looked, I don't know).  But I still feel that Embiid + Harden is a very formidable tandem, perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the league.  It is to be seen if they figure it out in time for the playoffs this year but I don't see that Philly needs to do all that much to be a title contender next season.

Harris is vastly overpaid for what he has done the last few seasons but in theory, should be a good 3rd wheel for Embiid and Harden.  Maxey is pretty good.  They can fill in around the core easily enough.

The risk is that Harden falls off the cliff in terms of performance.  He has been very up and down the last couple of seasons.  I think he has nagging injuries.  He holds up for a few good games but then kind of wears down.  He looked worn down last night.

I would say that even if PHI is not fully clicking by the playoffs, they are not going to be the team everyone saw last night.  I predict that they right the ship sufficiently to still be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs (standard caveat being if Embiid and Harden are healthy).

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2331 on: March 11, 2022, 10:23:08 AM »

Offline Celtics2021

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Can’t believe lot of so called experts thought Philly was going be tough to beat..I said when trade happen that it was a bad trade for Philly

I think in the short term (this season) it makes them better than if they'd done nothing.  Harden + Millsap + DJ is better than Curry + Drummond.

But, there options weren't "do the BRK trade or do nothing".  They could have kept Curry and Drummond and added helpful pieces for Simmons.  They probably could have gotten Haliburton and Barnes for Simmons + #1.  That would have made them better both long and short term.

I'm glad that Morey was hyper-focused on Harden.

Embiid / Drummond
Harris / Niang
Barnes / Green
Curry / Thybulle / Milton
Haliburton / Maxey / Korkmaz

That's a much scarier team than what they have now.
Long term, sure, but not over the next 2-3 seasons.  Especially next year when they have the off season to add to their role players and bench.

They’re over the apron as is, so they get to add a taxpayer MLE and vet free agents in a weak class, or try to make trades, noting that’s they are short a couple of seconds and (potentially) unable to trade any firsts through 2029.  (Brooklyn has the option of this year’s first or next year’s first.  If Brooklyn picks this year’s then they can trade 2023, but they’re otherwise prohibited from trading 2024-2029 due to other picks already owed).

They put a lot of eggs in the Harden basket.  It might work, and they’re a better team now than prior to the trade, but I agree with Roy that I’m not sure they came out better for being so focused on Harden.
I think they will look vastly different next year.  Perhaps it is a trade of Harris or they add Maxey to a trade to really get better (I think that would be a mistake, but teams going all in sometimes make those type of moves).  This year because of when they made the trade, they didn't have a lot of options, but I do believe they will look a lot different next year with the only guarantee of being on the roster being Embiid and Harden (on a big new contract). 

Haliburton definitely has the long term potential to be great, but this year both the Kings and Pacers have been better with Haliburton on the bench.  He doesn't yet play winning basketball.  He is a poor defender, he is very ball dominant (and not in the elite scoring way that Harden is), and he is a very poor defender.  Long term, obviously Haliburton will be better than Harden, but not over the next few seasons and guys like Barnes and Curry are role players.  They just don't drive the needle much and most of their value can be replaced by Philly in the free agent market.  When you have a player like Embiid, who is in his prime and has injury concerns, you maximize your title chances and Harden was the best option for the Sixers to do that.  None of the other potential Simmons trades were as good an option as Harden over the next couple of seasons, which is why they made the trade and made it when they did.

I'm not sure they're going to look too different, or that different will be any better.  Harris isn't going to be easy to move with $77 million owed over two season, and with little-to-zero draft compensation available, the best they can hope for is other overpriced players.  A ring chaser might go there, but Philly is going to have to get in line behind Miami and Golden State for certain, likely Brooklyn and the Clippers, and depending how the rest of the regular season and the postseason go, some or all of Milwaukee, Phoenix, Boston, and Chicago.  I don't think Philly is unattractive for a vet, but I neither do I believe they're exceptionally attractive, and again, it's a really shallow free agent class (just look at the Free agents to pursue thread that's been active the last day).

Morey loves Harden, and was willing to risk it.  There will be nights when Harden-Embiid are absolutely unstoppable.  And there will be nights where they get paved.  Same is true with Brooklyn, honestly.  Last night we saw the unstoppable version of Brooklyn up against a Sixers nadir, but both of those teams are highly variable because they rely so much on two players making everything happen on offense, and play inconsistent defense.  We'll see if Morey's move works, but I don't think he'll be able to turn around trade Harden from something that works better if Harden and Embiid aren't sucessful in the same way that he could have traded the pieces he could have acquired from other teams.

Flexibility may be a buzzword, but the Sixers don't have it at all right now.

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2332 on: March 11, 2022, 10:36:47 AM »

Online Moranis

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Oh I agree that the Sixers have made their bed with Harden and for better or worse are stuck with him, I just don't think they were going to do better in a win now type trade than him.

There are plenty of shooters available for the minimum every year. I think they will add a couple in the off season. Obviously no one as good as Curry but 40% type guys in decent volume. The Sixers need some players like that.

As for Harris, I think they will have at least some options.  Dinwiddie and Bertans for him would seemingly make sense for both Dallas and Philly as an example.
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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2333 on: March 11, 2022, 10:55:19 AM »

Offline footey

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Oh I agree that the Sixers have made their bed with Harden and for better or worse are stuck with him, I just don't think they were going to do better in a win now type trade than him.

There are plenty of shooters available for the minimum every year. I think they will add a couple in the off season. Obviously no one as good as Curry but 40% type guys in decent volume. The Sixers need some players like that.

As for Harris, I think they will have at least some options.  Dinwiddie and Bertans for him would seemingly make sense for both Dallas and Philly as an example.

What is your current view on the Celtics' chances to win a championship this season? You have consistently said that they lack the personnel to compete at that level.  (You were not alone in that assessment; many of us felt similarly.)  Have you altered your perspective given how well the team has jelled in 2022?  I have. While it is going to be a battle to get through the East, we seem to match up pretty well vs the other play-off bound teams. 

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2334 on: March 11, 2022, 11:29:21 AM »

Online Moranis

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Oh I agree that the Sixers have made their bed with Harden and for better or worse are stuck with him, I just don't think they were going to do better in a win now type trade than him.

There are plenty of shooters available for the minimum every year. I think they will add a couple in the off season. Obviously no one as good as Curry but 40% type guys in decent volume. The Sixers need some players like that.

As for Harris, I think they will have at least some options.  Dinwiddie and Bertans for him would seemingly make sense for both Dallas and Philly as an example.

What is your current view on the Celtics' chances to win a championship this season? You have consistently said that they lack the personnel to compete at that level.  (You were not alone in that assessment; many of us felt similarly.)  Have you altered your perspective given how well the team has jelled in 2022?  I have. While it is going to be a battle to get through the East, we seem to match up pretty well vs the other play-off bound teams.
I don't believe Tatum or the team is good enough yet.  I think a lot of the C's recent success has been playing a playoff rotation against largely weaker competition (I was saying all December that the team would close the year with a significantly improved record as the schedule got easier).  When you are only consistently playing 8 guys and playing them big minutes, you do better than the teams that are playing more of their rotation and their starters lesser minutes, especially when the competition isn't as good. 

I think Boston is on the same general tier as Miami which is behind Milwaukee, Philly and Brooklyn.  A Miami series would be a dogfight, which either team could win.  I don't think Boston beats a healthy Milwaukee, Philly, or Brooklyn though.  They just have better top end talent and that matters so much in the post season.  That is why the seeding matters so much this year.  If Boston gets the right draw it could easily be in the ECF or be knocked out in the 1st round.  The actual seed doesn't matter nearly as much as who the competition is this year.  Right now, I like Boston's draw (as long as Brooklyn ends up 7th).  I think Boston would beat Chicago and then would be in a coinflip against Miami (and would beat Toronto, Charlotte, or Atlanta if they end up as 8 and beat Miami).  Hopefully by the ECF whichever team is standing is beaten up enough that Boston can pull it out (I mean right now Milwaukee and Brooklyn could match up in the 1st round and they'd have Philly in round 2).  That is a tough draw for those teams and perhaps Boston could capitalize on it, but I don't think Boston is on their level.

As I've said all year, Milwaukee is the best team in the sport and I expect them to go back to back.  They have the best player in the world and a nicely constructed team around him, especially if they do actually get Lopez and Connaughton back (but even without them they are tough). 
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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2335 on: March 11, 2022, 02:08:05 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Right now, the betting lines say:

1.  PHO   +450
2.  GSW  +550
3.  BKN   +650
4.  PHI    +700
5.  MIL    +800
6.  MIA  +1200
7.  UTA  +1800
8.  BOS  +2200

Hard to argue too much with this.  I would have us closer to MIA but still behind the other top East teams, at least from a general betting standpoint.  You always have to remember that odds reflect how Vegas thinks people will bet, not who Vegas thinks will win.  I think the teams that are overvalued in this are PHO, GSW, and UTA but I can see why people are betting on them.

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2336 on: March 11, 2022, 02:13:36 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Right now, the betting lines say:

1.  PHO   +450
2.  GSW  +550
3.  BKN   +650
4.  PHI    +700
5.  MIL    +800
6.  MIA  +1200
7.  UTA  +1800
8.  BOS  +2200

Hard to argue too much with this.  I would have us closer to MIA but still behind the other top East teams, at least from a general betting standpoint.  You always have to remember that odds reflect how Vegas thinks people will bet, not who Vegas thinks will win.  I think the teams that are overvalued in this are PHO, GSW, and UTA but I can see why people are betting on them.

To put things in a little perspective, the Celtics were +3000 on Feb 16th (I know because that's when I got them).  I can't even imagine what it was in late December. 



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Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2337 on: March 11, 2022, 02:50:56 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Right now, the betting lines say:

1.  PHO   +450
2.  GSW  +550
3.  BKN   +650
4.  PHI    +700
5.  MIL    +800
6.  MIA  +1200
7.  UTA  +1800
8.  BOS  +2200

Hard to argue too much with this.  I would have us closer to MIA but still behind the other top East teams, at least from a general betting standpoint.  You always have to remember that odds reflect how Vegas thinks people will bet, not who Vegas thinks will win.  I think the teams that are overvalued in this are PHO, GSW, and UTA but I can see why people are betting on them.

To put things in a little perspective, the Celtics were +3000 on Feb 16th (I know because that's when I got them).  I can't even imagine what it was in late December.

It will be interesting to see if C’s can improve further in people’s minds by the seasons end

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2338 on: March 11, 2022, 02:56:30 PM »

Offline Goldstar88

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Oh I agree that the Sixers have made their bed with Harden and for better or worse are stuck with him, I just don't think they were going to do better in a win now type trade than him.

There are plenty of shooters available for the minimum every year. I think they will add a couple in the off season. Obviously no one as good as Curry but 40% type guys in decent volume. The Sixers need some players like that.

As for Harris, I think they will have at least some options.  Dinwiddie and Bertans for him would seemingly make sense for both Dallas and Philly as an example.

What is your current view on the Celtics' chances to win a championship this season? You have consistently said that they lack the personnel to compete at that level.  (You were not alone in that assessment; many of us felt similarly.)  Have you altered your perspective given how well the team has jelled in 2022?  I have. While it is going to be a battle to get through the East, we seem to match up pretty well vs the other play-off bound teams.
I don't believe Tatum or the team is good enough yet.  I think a lot of the C's recent success has been playing a playoff rotation against largely weaker competition (I was saying all December that the team would close the year with a significantly improved record as the schedule got easier).  When you are only consistently playing 8 guys and playing them big minutes, you do better than the teams that are playing more of their rotation and their starters lesser minutes, especially when the competition isn't as good. 

I think Boston is on the same general tier as Miami which is behind Milwaukee, Philly and Brooklyn.  A Miami series would be a dogfight, which either team could win.  I don't think Boston beats a healthy Milwaukee, Philly, or Brooklyn though.  They just have better top end talent and that matters so much in the post season.  That is why the seeding matters so much this year.  If Boston gets the right draw it could easily be in the ECF or be knocked out in the 1st round.  The actual seed doesn't matter nearly as much as who the competition is this year.  Right now, I like Boston's draw (as long as Brooklyn ends up 7th).  I think Boston would beat Chicago and then would be in a coinflip against Miami (and would beat Toronto, Charlotte, or Atlanta if they end up as 8 and beat Miami).  Hopefully by the ECF whichever team is standing is beaten up enough that Boston can pull it out (I mean right now Milwaukee and Brooklyn could match up in the 1st round and they'd have Philly in round 2).  That is a tough draw for those teams and perhaps Boston could capitalize on it, but I don't think Boston is on their level.

As I've said all year, Milwaukee is the best team in the sport and I expect them to go back to back.  They have the best player in the world and a nicely constructed team around him, especially if they do actually get Lopez and Connaughton back (but even without them they are tough).

C’s just beat Brooklyn and then Brooklyn destroyed Philly last night. C’s have the highest point differential in the East and the best defense in the NBA. Tatum is now a top 10 player and if JB can play at an all star level again, the C’s are absolutely on those other teams level.

KD is better than Giannis and If Kyrie is locked in, he’s better than any other player the Bucks have. I expect Simmons to fit in well with that group and he will make their defense much better. If the Bucks do make it to the finals, good luck taking out Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman. That’s a ridiculous amount of talent with championship pedigree and the Warriors would more than likely have home court advantage as well.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2022, 03:09:20 PM by Goldstar88 »
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
Quote
At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: NBA Season 2021-22
« Reply #2339 on: March 11, 2022, 03:14:03 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Right now, the betting lines say:

1.  PHO   +450
2.  GSW  +550
3.  BKN   +650
4.  PHI    +700
5.  MIL    +800
6.  MIA  +1200
7.  UTA  +1800
8.  BOS  +2200

Hard to argue too much with this.  I would have us closer to MIA but still behind the other top East teams, at least from a general betting standpoint.  You always have to remember that odds reflect how Vegas thinks people will bet, not who Vegas thinks will win.  I think the teams that are overvalued in this are PHO, GSW, and UTA but I can see why people are betting on them.

To me, Milwaukee at 8:1 seems like a good bet.  And, I've finally come around to thinking the Celts have at least as good of a shot as Brooklyn or Philly.  The teams I put clearly ahead of us are Milwaukee, Phoenix and Golden State (assuming Green is healthy).  I'm not sure about Miami, but I like our chances.



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